191
FXUS62 KFFC 111721
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
121 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026



...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms
  through tonight, becoming widespread on Sunday.

- A few storms through this weekend may become strong to severe
  and capable of producing gusty to damaging wind gusts up to
  50-60 mph, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning.

- Heat index values peak between 95-108 through Saturday. A Heat
  Advisory is in effect for portions of east central Georgia from
  12 PM to 8 PM today.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 234 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Overview:

Sensible weather through Sunday will be governed by the combination
of weakly northwesterly flow at the mid-levels and southwesterly
flow around the western periphery of the Bermuda High at the
surface. The combination of the two, and PWATs generally exceeding
the 90th percentile climatologically, will support continued chances
for diurnally-driven convection capable of efficient rainfall
production. Any disturbances traversing mid-level flow will help to
bolster coverage (and perhaps intensity) beyond that of a typical
summer day.

Today`s storm chances:

A broader, negatively-titled trough
sweeping across the midsection of the country will be that boost
today. Coverage is likely to be highest (60-80% chances) across
far north Georgia, though scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
possible nearly everywhere this afternoon/evening. As PWATs are
progged to approach 2" and simulated model soundings show
inverted-V structures indicative of downburst potential
(corresponding to DCAPE of 800 J/kg or higher), water-loaded
downdrafts will support a continued isolated damaging wind threat
in the strongest storms that form. Additionally, given relatively
weak steering flow, and an environment approaching climatological
maximums moisture-wise, care will need to be taken to monitor for
locally heavy rainfall leading to isolated flash/nuisance flooding
concerns.

Tomorrow`s storm chances:

Very little changes to the overall pattern are expected Sunday, but
convective coverage looks to exceed that of today`s due to an
approaching surface frontal boundary and the influence of the
aforementioned mid-level trough/closed low. Blanket 70-80% PoPs are
on the docket to round out the weekend, and showers and
thunderstorms are likely to linger well into the evening. Despite
kinematics remaining unimpressive for storm organization, the
strongest upward pulses on Sunday may surpass what we`ve seen in
previous days, and the influence of the mid/upper trough on mid-
level temperatures may support an outside chance of large hail (up
to 1"). A Slight (level 2 out of 5) Risk is in effect for portions
of east central Georgia to highlight locally more favorable chances
for damaging winds and perhaps a hail report.

Heat:

Marginal heat concerns will continue through the weekend, despite
increasing convective coverage gradually helping to tamp down on
diurnal heating. Highs/maximum air temperatures along and north of I-
85 will be in the mid-80s to lower 90s through tomorrow, with the
upper-90s to lower-100s possible for areas further south. As heat
index values look to max out between 105 and 108 degrees today, a
Heat Advisory is once again in effect for portions of southeast
central Georgia through 8PM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 234 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Active Weather Through Early Next Week:

A frontal boundary will remain draped across North and Central GA
throughout Monday and Tuesday with a mid-level low parked over the
TN Valley, supporting numerous to widespread showers and
thunderstorms each day. With PWAT values around 1.8-2" and
sufficient instability, strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible both days with primary threats being damaging wind gusts
and frequent lightning. Additionally, the high moisture content and
repeated days of wet weather could lead to localized flash flooding
concerns. The increased cloud cover will keep temperatures a little
cooler, with highs in the 80s and heat index values in the low to
mid 90s.

Warmer with Daily Storm Chances Mid to Late Week:

Model guidance continues to have moderate agreement on the mid-level
low kicking off to the west and the frontal boundary dissipating by
mid-week. If this holds true, we could expect a return to typical
summertime weather through late week, with daily afternoon showers
and storms that are isolated to scattered in nature. High
temperatures would warm back into the 90s, with heat index values in
the upper 90s to low 100s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Aggitated cu field producing occasional heavy rainfall has
populated all around metro TAF sites as of TAF issuance. Expect
TSRA chances to remain through at least 02Z, though if stronger
push of storms happens, this could bring threat to an earlier end.
Cu field is around 030-040 for the base and may rise slowly
through afternoon before dissipating tonight. A small chance of
some storms overnight, though probability is too low to include in
TAF issuance for all but RYY. Winds will be W side at 5-10 kts,
some gusts up to 20 kts (especially at KATL).


//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High today, medium TSRA threat overnight.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          93  73  92  70 /  40  20  70  80
Atlanta         93  75  90  72 /  50  30  80  70
Blairsville     84  66  82  64 /  60  40  80  80
Cartersville    92  72  88  70 /  50  50  80  70
Columbus        95  76  93  73 /  20  10  60  70
Gainesville     91  73  89  70 /  40  30  70  70
Macon           94  75  93  72 /  20  10  60  70
Rome            92  72  87  70 /  50  70  80  70
Peachtree City  92  73  90  70 /  40  20  80  70
Vidalia         99  77  98  73 /  10  10  40  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ085-086-097-098-
111>113.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....Culver
AVIATION...Lusk