186
FXUS62 KFFC 032324
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
724 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 722 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

- Dry conditions will persist through Saturday amid seasonal
      temperatures and an easterly breeze.

    - A surge of tropical moisture will bring rain chances to
      Georgia between Sunday afternoon and Wednesday, but overall,
      rainfall is not expected to improve the drought conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 217 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Typical weather for October -- dry with mild temperatures -- will
continue through tomorrow (Saturday). The main change with this
forecast package was to blend in the latest ARW guidance (hi-res)
with the NBM guidance. Overall, this has nudged dewpoints down a
couple degrees today, tonight, and tomorrow. Still, relative
humidity will remain above the threshold for a Fire Danger
Statement (25% or lower). Winds and gusts will also remain below
thresholds.

Moisture will increase from southeast to northwest tonight
through tomorrow as an easterly wave (best visualized at 850 mb)
approaches and tracks across Florida. A mid-/upper-level ridge
will remain prominent over the Tennessee Valley and Appalachians,
so expect that precipitation associated with the wave will be
confined to the far southern tier of the forecast area.
Additionally, relatively warm air aloft due to the
ridge/subsidence will hinder instability, so not expecting
thunderstorms. Rainfall totals with showers will not amount to
much -- ranging from a trace (~0.01 inch) to ~0.10 inch.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 217 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Long term outlook begins with a wave of moisture out of the
Atlantic side of the tropics Sunday and Monday. Longer range
models indicate PWATs surging near the 75th percentile
climatologically. Instability will be very limited with the upper
level ridging pattern. NBM ensemble guidance indicates maximum
CAPE values (located in SE CWA) have ~50% chance of being <500J/Kg
and ~90% chance of being <1000J/Kg. Limited CAPE values will mean
significantly limited capacity to tap into the ample moisture and
QPF values will be severely limited as well. Should CAPE values
overperform, however, the upper bound spread of precipitation
accumulation will be high. PoPs briefly drop again on Tuesday
ahead of an incoming upper level trough and associated cold front
on Wednesday. Ensembles indicate stalling of the front as it moves
into southern TN and northern GA. Models seem to struggle with
realizing the exact location of stalling fronts this far out so
PoPs on Wednesday will remain fairly low. QPF values southeast of
MACON through Wednesday sit between 1-2". Areas north and west of
Macon can expect trace to 0.75" through the same time (higher
amounts should the front stall further south). Expect
precipitation to come mostly as showers of light rain with an
occasional rumble of thunder in the southeast CWA on Sunday and
Monday. Overall, we will likely see limited help with drought
conditions, especially in western GA.

Temperatures through the period will warm and juicy for the time
of year. Highs will reach the low to mid 80s for much of the area
and dewpoints will remain consistently in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

No significant changes from the previous TAF. A period of MVFR
cigs will be possible at KMCN between 14-18z. High cirrus will
continue to increase through the period with FEW to SCT low VFR
cigs through the afternoon Saturday. E to NE winds 7to 12 kts with
gusts up to 20kts at MCN and CSG. Winds relax overnight.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...

High confidence on all elements.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          55  78  61  78 /   0   0   0  10
Atlanta         59  80  65  80 /   0   0   0  10
Blairsville     51  74  57  74 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    57  81  64  81 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        62  83  67  84 /   0   0   0  20
Gainesville     56  78  62  78 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           60  81  66  82 /   0  10   0  20
Rome            57  83  64  84 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  57  80  63  80 /   0   0   0  10
Vidalia         63  84  67  84 /   0  20   0  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...07