723
FXUS62 KFFC 232354
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
654 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 643 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

 - Above-normal temperatures will continue through the middle of
   the upcoming week.

 - Showers and thunderstorms make a return between Tuesday and
   Thursday. Amounts range from less than 1 inch south of I85 and
   1-2" in far north Georgia, with isolated pockets of up to 3".

 - There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather in
   north Georgia on Tuesday afternoon. Damaging winds and hail
   will be the main hazards, though an isolated brief tornado
   cannot be ruled out.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 206 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Current satellite loop shows mostly clear skies across the state and
it should stay that way through the short term. We could see some
Fog across north and central GA just before daybreak Monday, but it
should burn off by 9 to 10am. High pressure centered over western
TN/KY will move east over the next 24 to 36 hours moving off the Mid
atlantic coast by 00z Tue. This ridge is what is currently keeping
things dry over the southeastern U.S, but as it moves east we will
get into more moist E to SERLY flow Mon/Mon night. This ridge
pushing out of the way will also allow the next frontal system to
push into our area. This frontal boundary is currently developing
over the 4 corners region with its main low center expected to be
over SW KS by 12z Mon. This low center continues to push NE into the
western great lake states Mon night. Its associated colds front
moves into the Mid to lower MS river valley Mon evening with precip
pushing into NW GA around 06z-09z Tue. Only expecting Showers Mon
night as this front nears the area but could definitely see some
thunder into the extended periods with this system.

Temps continue on the warm side with lows tonight and Monday night
in the 50s to near 60. Highs Monday will be mainly in the 70s with
some lower 80s across central GA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 206 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Global ensembles continue to come into better agreement with mid-
week rainfall and cooldown late next week. Starting off the longterm
Tuesday morning, showers and thunderstorms will be slowly moving
through northwest Georgia as the cutoff low (currently over the
southwest) moves across the TN valley. A surge of moisture will
advect into the region and the onset of rain is slated to occur as
early as Tuesday morning across portions of Northwest GA. PWATs
increase to 1.0-1.5", putting us in the 75th+ percentile for
moisture. The surface low deepens on Tuesday as it continues NE
which will act to sharpen the front as it advances towards the
state. Timing will be key when analyzing the severe threat. Models
which currently move the line eastward slower allow for increased
diurnal heating. Current probs for SFCCAPE > 750 peak around 30% in
northwest GA, though some outliers like the GFS develop a corridor
of CAPE > 1000 J/Kg. When combined with ample moisture and modest
bulk shear/storm relative helicity, would not be surprised if a
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) is introduced for areas north of I85.
With the front well removed from the parent low, the line of showers
and thunderstorms will likely see trouble remaining organized
outside higher CAPE. On and off showers of rain will continue
through Wednesday morning in northwest GA and may see remnant
disorganized showers across our southeast counties into Wednesday
evening. Total QPF will be dependent on instability as well. Higher
instability and more organized embedded cells will become efficient
rain makers with pockets of heavy rainfall likely exceeding overall
rain coverage by a significant amount. Current deterministic
forecasts generally indicate widespread 1 to 2 inches north of I85
and between 0.1 to 1.0 inches south of I85 (decreasing to the
southeast). Given the slow moving front and potential for embedded
stronger cells, would not be surprised to see isolated locations of
3+" of rain over the coming days in northwest GA. Similarly, should
the line hold together further into the southeast CWA, isolated
amounts >1.0" are possible south of I85.

Temperatures will remain warm/mild through Wednesday with forecast
highs ranging from the upper 60s in North Georgia to upper 70s (near
80) across Central Georgia. Daytime temperatures in the 50s to low
60s and overnight lows near freezing return by Thanksgiving through
the end of the week in wake of the front and alongside a reinforcing
trough which digs into the eastern CONUS through the late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

VFR conditions ongoing across much of the area with SKC. Areas of
FG with IFR CIG/VIS expected to develop overnight, with the
highest chances from CSG to MCN and areas south and east. There
is a low chance for some FG to develop as far north as the ATL
area. Any FG should burn off by 16Z, with VFR conditions the rest
of the day. Light NW winds will turn NE overnight, then out of the
SE by Monday afternoon at around 7-10 kts.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...

Medium confidence in FG coverage overnight. High in all other
elements.

Culver

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          47  70  54  72 /   0   0  20  60
Atlanta         51  71  58  74 /   0   0  20  70
Blairsville     42  63  48  61 /   0   0  30  90
Cartersville    44  72  57  72 /   0   0  30  80
Columbus        52  78  58  79 /   0   0  20  40
Gainesville     49  68  55  68 /   0   0  20  80
Macon           49  76  56  79 /   0   0   0  20
Rome            46  75  59  74 /   0   0  40  90
Peachtree City  47  73  57  75 /   0   0  20  60
Vidalia         51  77  56  81 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...Culver