418
FXUS62 KFFC 041820
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
120 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 102 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025


    - Rounds of rainfall are expected, especially across Middle
      Georgia, where the highest rainfall amounts are forecast
      through the weekend. Flash flooding and river flooding are
      not expected.

    - Temperatures will be near seasonal norms to below normal
      through the week ahead.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 102 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Waves of rainfall will keep things damp through the short term.
The forecast area remains situated within southwest flow aloft
with perturbations bringing rounds of rainfall. Increasing
isentropic lift has led to fairly widespread light rain so far
with the highest concentration of moderate rainfall across Middle
Georgia. More persistent and widespread rainfall will overspread
the area from late this evening through Friday morning as a
midlevel wave swings eastward and a weak associated surface low
pushes along the northern Gulf Coast. Rainfall will then taper off
across north Georgia by midday as the axis of moisture shifts
southward. Still, intermittent showers can be expected into
tomorrow night across Middle Georgia within the corridor of moist
southwest flow. The highest QPF will be for areas south of I-20
through tomorrow night, consistent with the most persistent
rainfall, where amounts could reach near or over 1" by Saturday
morning. Farther north, amounts from a quarter to half inch would
be more typical.

Temperatures will remain on the cool side amid the clouds and
rainfall with highs today struggling to lift out of the 40s for
most and maxing out in the low 50s for a few spots. Low
temperatures will remain above freezing tonight into Friday
morning, even in far north Georgia where lows in the mid 30s are
forecast. This will prevent any wintry precip concerns Friday
morning. Highs Friday will again range from the mid-to-upper 40s
in northeast Georgia to as warm as the mid 50s in Middle Georgia.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 102 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

The long term period picks up on Saturday, in the midst of a
rainy and cloudy weather pattern across much of Georgia. Model
guidance continues to depict the greatest rainfall totals
maximized across middle/central Georgia, with generally 2 or more
inches of rain along and south of a line from Muscogee Co. to
Baldwin Co. to Glascock Co. Our confidence in this favored area
for the most rainfall is fairly high, as global ensembles and the
hi-res guidance that goes out 60+ hours show very similar
solutions at the surface and aloft regarding the track of a
surface low across the northern Gulf and the evolution of
mid-/upper-level troughing, respectively. Still, it would be
realistic to expect the 2-inch total rainfall contour to shift by
a row of counties north or south as the forecast evolves and is
fine-tuned over the next 24-48 hours.

Instability (MLCAPE, MUCAPE, mid-level lapse rates) will be
lacking during this rainy period, so not expecting convection (and
as a result, not expecting a flash flooding or river flooding
threat). If anything, periods of steady, moderate rainfall will
continue to chip away at the prolonged drought conditions across
parts of the state, evidenced by this week`s drought improvement
following previous days of rainfall.

Monday will bring the cessation of rain and dense cloud cover, as
expansive high pressure and a dry airmass overtake much of the
eastern CONUS. Additionally, overnight/early morning lows on
Tuesday and Wednesday will be noticeably cooler than earlier in
the long term period, with widespread low-to-mid 30s and isolated
areas with lows in the 20s both mornings.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

RA will affect primarily MCN/CSG this afternoon with a lull
elsewhere. More widespread -RA will overspread all other TAF sites
after 02-04Z tonight and persist through Friday morning before
tapering off by midday at ATL/AHN sites. Cigs/vsbys will
deteriorate quickly after 02-04Z with IFR cigs/vsbys likely
thereafter and LIFR cigs expected after 06Z, persisting into
Friday. Initial W winds at 3-6 kts will become light/vrb to near
calm by 00Z, trending to NE Friday AM.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on cig timing.
High confidence on other elements.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          40  46  39  50 / 100  90  40  50
Atlanta         41  48  43  51 /  90  70  40  50
Blairsville     35  45  35  50 / 100  50  30  30
Cartersville    37  49  39  52 /  90  50  30  30
Columbus        43  54  45  54 /  90  80  70  70
Gainesville     40  46  40  51 / 100  70  40  40
Macon           42  52  43  54 /  90  90  70  70
Rome            40  52  42  55 / 100  40  20  30
Peachtree City  39  50  41  51 /  90  70  50  60
Vidalia         45  54  47  55 /  80  90  80  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...RW