129
FXUS62 KFFC 140545
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
145 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025

...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the
  early evening. Isolated thunderstorms possible overnight. A few
  strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out.

- Temperatures begin warming back up on Wednesday.

A closed upper low is currently situated over the TN Valley and is
forecast to continue its progression NNE through Wednesday. Widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are ongoing this
afternoon and will persist through the evening. As the upper low
departs NNE an additional shortwave will swing through the region
overnight and may prompt additional showers and isolated
thunderstorms across North AL that may move into portions of North
GA. Latest CAMs and hi-res guidance continue to indicate this
possibility. While no widespread severe weather is expected today an
isolated stronger storm cannot be ruled out. While instability is
adequate (~1000J/kg), though wind shear is lacking (<20kts). The
more favorable environment if a stronger storm can get going will be
across eastern GA where dewpoints have climbed into the low to mid
60s. Gusty winds and perhaps some small hail will be the main
threat. Greater wind shear is expected overnight as the secondary
shortwave swings through -- this combined with some elevated
instability may also warrant an opportunity for an isolated stronger
storm across Northwest GA. With upper level support shifting NNE and
limited instability the severe threat remains quite conditional for
Wednesday. Main anticipating isolated showers and storms across
Northeast and far east GA. Temperatures begin to warm up on
Wednesday with highs climbing back into the low to mid 80s.

07

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 258 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

Key Messages:

    - Temps approach record highs for the weekend over the metro.

    - Dry weather for Thursday.

    - Rain chances return for start of the weekend with daily
      potential for strong to severe storms through Monday.

Discussion:

Pushing into Thursday, the low pressure system will be well to
the northeast, with momentary ridging over Georgia which will
result in our one day of dry weather expected over the area. With
the mid- level ridging and sfc high pressure funneling warm moist
air into the area, temps will quickly rise into the 90s over much
of the area. To begin the weekend, we`ll see a frontal boundary
begin to dip into north Georgia and southern TN and that will be
our main emphasis for any strong to severe weather into the early
parts of next week. With the front hanging out over north Georgia,
should see most storms stick to that northern Georgia area
although with it being towards the end of the longterm, the front
could meander further south during this time frame. Daily
afternoon CAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg are currently forecasted
with elevated shear values. With the elevated shear values we will
be looking out for the chance for these storms to become more
linear in nature and have more of a damaging wind threat vs just a
popcorn summer type setup. We will continue to monitor for any
indication that storms will become linear in nature.

In addition to the elevated rain chances, with the high pressure
to our south, warm air will be funneled into the area resulting in
highs in the 90s which are ~8-10 degrees above normal for the
area. For the ATL site we will be approaching record highs for the
weekend especially Friday with the high forecasted to be 91 and
the record is 91. In addition to the record high potential, our
lows will be approaching record high minimum temps with low temps
in the low 70s through the weekend.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 137 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue in north Georgia
through 00Z Thursday. Impacts are possible at the Atlanta area TAF
sites between 08Z and 14Z today. For MCN impacts are most
probable between 18Z today and 00Z Thursday. Patches of LIFR/IFR
and MVFR ceilings (300-3000 ft AGL) are expected in north Georgia
through 14Z today, then VFR (3000 AGL or above) ceilings are
expected for all areas. Winds will be from the southwest at 3 to
11 kt between 14Z today and 06Z Thursday.


//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Low confidence in the occurrence of showers or storms at ATL
between 08Z and 14Z today.
High confidence in the wind forecast.
Moderate confidence in the ceiling outlook.

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          60  81  63  86 /  30  30  10   0
Atlanta         62  83  64  87 /  50  20  10   0
Blairsville     55  77  59  82 /  60  30  20   0
Cartersville    59  83  63  88 /  50  20  10   0
Columbus        61  87  64  90 /  10  10   0   0
Gainesville     61  81  64  85 /  50  30  10   0
Macon           61  86  64  88 /  10  10  10   0
Rome            59  84  63  86 /  40  20  10   0
Peachtree City  60  85  62  88 /  40  10  10   0
Vidalia         64  87  67  90 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Albright