898
FXUS62 KFFC 011139
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
639 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025



...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 606 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

 - Waves of rainfall are expected Today through Tuesday
   afternoon. Periods of heavy rainfall will be possible.

 - Another wave of rainfall is possible Friday into Saturday. This
   looks like a "cold rain", but some potential does exist for
   winter weather in far NE GA.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

Current radar loop shows the showers have moved out of the region
for now but there are still some areas of light drizzle. Seeing
some patchy fog as well so will keep an eye on this for possible
dense fog through daybreak. The frontal boundary that brought in
the showers Sunday has stalled across central GA and will usher in
the next wave moving NE out of the western gulf. Models show this
next wave developing along the TX gulf coast this morning, then
moving NE along the stalled frontal boundary Today pushing precip
into Western GA This afternoon. As this wave moves into the state
it collides with a CAD wedge that sets up from the high pressure
ridge which sets up down the eastern seaboard from the New England
states. This wedge increases the stable easterly flow across the
state and keep temps on the cool side. Highs today expected to get
up into the lower to mid 50s. Instability is almost non existent
with the wedge in place so not expecting any thunderstorms with
this next wave. This wave continues to bring precipitation to the
region through Tue so this should be a nice slow soaking rain,
which is what the state of GA needs being in a drought. 2 day QPF
totals look like most locations across north and central GA should
see 0.5" to 1.5" with some isolated 2.0" totals. This is much
need precipitation but it is not expected to be a drought buster.
It should put a dent in it though.

This Wave/front finally moves East and South of the CWA by Tue
afternoon with a ridge of high pressure building in from the
southern plains Tue night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 313 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

A change in the pattern will be underway as the extended period
begins on Tuesday night. The axis of a longwave trough will have
cleared Georgia to the east and will be approaching the Atlantic
coast. The center of the surface low moving through our forecast
area on Tuesday will be getting swept northeastward into the
Atlantic, with associated precipitation having come to an end across
north and central Georgia. Meanwhile, the front trailing from this
low will have cleared the forecast area to the southeast. With
northwesterly low level flow and and cold air advection setting up
over the area and clearing skies, low temperatures on Wednesday
morning will be quite cold, forecast to range from the low 20s in
far north Georgia to the low 30s in portions of east-central
Georgia. Shortwave ridging sliding over the east CONUS and surface
high pressure moving across the Southeast will promote clearing
skies and benign conditions on Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday withing
the post-frontal airmass will be about 5-9 degrees below daily
normals, in the low to mid 50s across the area.

The benign weather on Wednesday will be short-lived as the shallow
ridge will quickly move away to the east on Wednesday night into
Thursday, with southwesterly flow beginning across the Southeast
once again. Cloud cover spreading from west to east across the area
early Thursday will help keep temperatures from dropping as low as
Wednesday morning, in the low to mid 30s across the forecast area.
Highs on Thursday will range from the low 50s in north and west
Georgia to the low 60s in east-central Georgia. During the daytime
on Thursday, a strong shortwave trough is expected to move across
the Northeast, which will nudge a stalling cold front southward
towards the north Georgia. Furthermore, as this trough quickly
swings away to the northeast, a fairly strong (1030+ mb) surface
high will set up over the Appalachians and push east. A CAD wedge is
then expected to develop along the lee side of the Appalachians and
spread into north Georgia late Thursday night into Friday. Another
shortwave disturbance will meanwhile traverse the SW jet in place
over the Southeast. With a baroclinic zone in the vicinity of the
cold front that nudged into the area, a surface low associated with
the shortwave is likely to develop over the Deep South and move
northeastward into the forecast area.

Some uncertainty exists with respect to the timing of this feature.
Isolated light showers entering the western portion of the CWA as
early as Thursday evening. Precipitation will increase in coverage
and spread eastward, and is expected to become widespread by Friday
morning through the day, then gradually trail off Friday night into
Saturday. As moisture overspreads the wedge and rain falls through,
latent cooling processes could serve to reinforce the dome of cold
air underneath the wedge. This is a setup that has commonly led to
wintry weather in north Georgia, though it is early in the season
and we may not be quite able to tap into cold enough temperatures
yet. Lows in the highest elevations of far northeast Georgia will be
the coldest within the wedge, but are currently forecast to be in
the mid 30s on Friday and Saturday mornings. This would favor a
higher likelihood of a cold rain across the area instead of winter
weather. However the evolution of the shortwave over the northeast
and following surface high to the northeast will need to be
monitored. If the shortwave trends deeper and surface high trends
stronger, then a stronger wedge and cold air advection within will
follow, which will increase the possibility of seeing wintry precip
in the higher elevations of far north Georgia.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025
MVFR to VFR ceilings across the area with some isolated areas of
fog. Ceilings should become more VFR over the next few hours then
fall back down as -SHRA moves back in later this afternoon. The
lower ceilings and precip should continue overnight into Tue
morning. Winds are out of the NW but will turn to the NE then E by
14z-16z Wind speeds should stay in the 6-12kt range through the
period. May see some higher gusts in and around any stronger
showers.


//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Confidence medium to high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          49  37  54  28 /  30 100  70   0
Atlanta         51  41  50  29 /  40 100  70   0
Blairsville     48  34  47  22 /  30 100  70   0
Cartersville    52  38  50  23 /  50 100  60   0
Columbus        59  47  58  28 /  40 100  60   0
Gainesville     48  38  53  29 /  40 100  70   0
Macon           57  44  58  28 /  30 100  80   0
Rome            55  42  52  28 /  50 100  50   0
Peachtree City  52  41  53  24 /  40 100  60   0
Vidalia         63  48  65  35 /  30  90  90  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...01