607
FXUS62 KFFC 071949
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
249 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 246 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

 - Scattered to widespread rain showers and isolated
   thunderstorms this evening and overnight, with another round
   Saturday and Sunday. A couple strong to severe storms will be
   possible Friday night into Saturday morning.

 - Much colder early to middle of next week, with the first
   widespread frost/freeze of the season likely early Monday and
   early Tuesday.

 - Flurries possible in the higher elevations of the north Georgia
   mountains overnight Sunday into Monday morning. No impacts
   expected.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

Current Conditions Meso-Analysis:

Satellite shows increasing CU field development across the state
with greater coverage ahead of the front in AL. CAPE values remain
unimpressive with most of central and north GA near or less than 250
J/kg of MUCAPE. 3hr change in MUCAPE and CIN indicates little change
as we go into the early afternoon. Radar shows a blob of rain near
KMXX moving eastward towards the GA border, requiring increased
PoPs between CSG and ATL through the coming hours and ahead of the
main line tonight. Uncertain at this time how well this will hold
together through the early afternoon given, though we could see
some rain ahead of schedule due to this. Winds shear profiles
remain unimpressive as riding continues moving overhead. This
should change quickly through the evening as the front approaches.

Forecast:

The arrival timing of the line remains relatively unchanged this
evening. Will need to continue monitoring CAPE development to
evaluate thunderstorm potential, however bull shear in and ahead of
the front could reach near 40-45kts and Effective SRH in northwest
Georgia could reach over 200m2/s2 (more than enough to get cells
rotating). The most recent HREF run continues to show confidence in
CAPE values between 500 and 1000 J/Kg which may be enough to briefly
tap into shear profiles. Resulting STP>1 prob values tonight peak
around 30-40% in northwest GA and upwards of 70% late tonight in
west-central Georgia. Overall, severe threat remains relatively low
with the main hazards of gusty winds and a low risk of brief spin-up
tornados. Should the convective blob in Alabama remain in tact
across GA, severe potential is likely to be less.

Convection and precipitation should be well on its way in clearing
by 12z tomorrow morning. Conditions just outside of light
rainshowers and behind the main line will be damp and cool-ish,
perfect conditions for patchy fog and low ceilings. Less fog in
areas with active rainfall due to showering.

PoPs taper off through the day on saturday before climbing once
again with the approach of the broader upper level trough. PoPs
Saturday afternoon - evening will climb from around 20% to around 40
percent for much of the CWA Sunday morning.

Total QPF through the weekend remains between trace and 0.5" for all
except for slightly higher amounts in the mountains of north
Georgia. Drought conditions area unlikely to improve significantly
so stay tuned to the drought outlook in the coming weeks.

Temperatures through the period remain moderated mostly by moisture
with highs generally in the 70s and lows in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

The second front will be pushing through at the start of the long
term period with the front likely positioned over central Georgia by
Sunday afternoon. This comes along in a push of moisture push in
along the broad trough over the central and eastern CONUS. SPC has
highlighted the far southern portions of central Georgia in a
marginal risk. Models are indicating the potential for an axis of
modest CAPE values that could contribute to isolated severe concerns
into the afternoon.

As this system pushes out of the area, eyes will turn to how much
moisture can be pushed out of this system Sunday night into Monday
morning. Ensembles remain split with EPS showing more moisture than
the GEFS at this time. Wrap around moisture will be the main driving
force for any flurries to affect the northern GA mountains overnight
Sunday into Monday morning. Moisture is projected in the upper
levels with temperature profiles below freezing but the 875mb to sfc
layer will be the deciding factor with GEFS showing dry and the EPS
showing moisture. Overall not expecting really any impacts with this
system expected to be limited to flurries. Definitely keeping an eye
on this into the weekend. The bigger story will be the cold
temperatures as this blast of cold air brings high temps Monday to
topping out at the mid 30 to mid 40s across much of the area. Into
Monday night the entirety of our CWA is forecast to be below
freezing (and below 28) which will effectively kill off any
vegetation still growing. Be on the lookout for freeze products as
we get closer. With breezy NW winds at 20-25mph feels like
temperatures will be close to the single digits for portions of
northern GA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

Cigs fall through taf period. Initial push of sct -shra this
afternoon for CSG and southern metro sites. -SHRA and -TSRA
through overnight with potential for gusty winds at NW taf
sites. Winds light to calm through much of period, generally out
of W. Cigs slow to recover tomorrow with patchy fog psbl across N
GA.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium Confidence Cigs and VSBYs.
Medium confidence precipitation coverage.
High confidence all other elements.

SM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          58  76  57  72 /  40  10  30  20
Atlanta         61  75  59  68 /  50  20  40  20
Blairsville     52  69  50  61 /  70  10  40  20
Cartersville    58  75  57  66 /  60  20  40  10
Columbus        62  78  59  74 /  60  10  30  20
Gainesville     57  73  57  68 /  50  10  40  20
Macon           60  78  58  77 /  40  10  20  20
Rome            59  77  57  65 /  70  10  40  10
Peachtree City  60  76  58  70 /  60  20  40  20
Vidalia         60  81  62  82 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...SM