005
FXUS62 KFFC 220752
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
252 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 215 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

 - Chances for showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms will
   continue into the afternoon today. Any additional rainfall will
   be light.

 - Above-normal temperatures will continue through the middle of
   next week.

 - Rain chances are likely to make a return between Tuesday and
   Thursday, though the extent and exact amounts remain uncertain.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 215 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Over the course of the day today, the surface low pressure system
responsible for the patchy showers ongoing across portions of north
and central Georgia will sweep eastward, with its attendant cold
front slowly filtering southeastward across the state. As it does
so, any lingering precipitation will come to an end (likely by late
this evening, and flow at the mid-levels will shift from nearly
quasi-zonal to northwesterly -- ushering in a reinforcing shot of
dry air across much of ECONUS. Coverage of showers will remain
patchy, with up to an additional tenth of an inch of rainfall
possible between now and 1AM Sunday morning. Within more
moderate/convective showers, some rumbles of thunder are possible,
owing to bolstered-but-still-meager instability for areas in closer
proximity to the parent low trekking across the Tennessee River
Valley. Modest bulk shear -- 30kts or greater -- will be present
across north and north central Georgia today, and an isolated strong
storm can`t be ruled out, but antecedent (and lingering) cloud cover
should preclude meaningful chances for severe weather.

Tomorrow, the combination of drying northwesterly flow at the
mid- levels and high pressure moving in at the surface should
support a clear and dry end to the weekend. Our unseasonably warm
November weather will continue. Highs today and tomorrow afternoon
will be in the mid-70s to lower-80s, with Saturday morning lows
in the upper- 40s to 50s -- as much as 10 to 15 degrees above
average for highs, and 12 to 16 degrees above average for lows.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 215 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

The long term period starts off warm and mostly dry with surface
high pressure and a midlevel ridge in place through Monday. A
pattern shift still looks to be on the horizon with an increasing
potential for rain chances to return to portions of North and
Central Georgia as early as Tuesday. Midlevel ridging will slide
eastward as a deepening cut-off low ejects east of the Rockies
and drifts across the High Plains. At the surface, a cold front
will begin making its way towards the Southeast, eventually
passing through the region later in the week. The exact
path/trajectory of the developing low is still somewhat uncertain
thus the extent of rainfall and the amount of rainfall we receive
across North and Central Georgia is also uncertain. The speed of
this system and additional upper level elements will impact how
much or how little rainfall we receive and at what point
conditions improve across the state. Similar to the previous
forecast, there are still a notable spread in QPF values with the
latest ensemble plumes and box/whisker plots showing anywhere from
0.5 to 1.5 inches of QPF. For now plan for periods of rain and
perhaps a few thunderstorms to be the story early next week,
particularly between Tuesday and Wednesday. Definitely something
to keep in mind especially if you`re planning any holiday travels.
Stay tuned for updates.

Temperatures will remain warm/mild through most of next week with
forecast highs ranging from the upper 60s in North Georgia to upper
70s (near 80) across Central Georgia. Forecast lows will still hover
in the 50s to low 60s. Any cool down will occur in wake of the
frontal passage likely late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

BKN to OVC low-MVFR to IFR conds to linger into the aftn.
Expecting primarily cigs between 600-800ft, but cannot rule out a
brief pd of 500ft cigs between now and daybreak. Coverage of -SHRA
will be spotty over the next several hours, and may be
accompanied by low-VFR vsbys at times. A return to dry conditions
and SCT VFR to come by 17-18Z. Winds will remain out of the W side
at 6-12kts with occasional gusts to 20-22kts psbl between 18-00Z.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence ceiling progression and timing of -SHRA.
High confidence all other elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          77  53  73  45 /  10   0   0   0
Atlanta         76  53  71  47 /  20   0   0   0
Blairsville     70  46  66  38 /  30  10   0   0
Cartersville    76  50  70  42 /  30   0   0   0
Columbus        80  54  75  48 /  20  10   0   0
Gainesville     75  53  72  46 /  20   0   0   0
Macon           80  54  76  46 /  10  10   0   0
Rome            80  52  73  43 /  20  10   0   0
Peachtree City  77  52  72  44 /  20   0   0   0
Vidalia         81  58  78  49 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...96