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000
FXUS62 KFFC 230218
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1015 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019

.Update...
No changes to forecast except to remove afternoon wording.

41


.Previous...

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...
High pressure will persist through the short-term forecast period,
keeping dry and mild weather in place across the area. Today`s gusty
winds will diminish overnight tonight as surface high pressure
settles into the Southeast through Saturday. Overnight lows will
near the freezing mark again for pockets of far north Georgia;
however, given the short duration (an hour or two at most) as well
as limited areal coverage of freezing temperatures, a Freeze Warning
will not be issued. As upper ridging builds eastward through the day
Saturday, temperatures will respond accordingly with 70s returning
to areas south of I-20 and 60s elsewhere.

RW


.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...
No major changes to the extended forecast. Upper-level ridging will
continue to move slowly eastward over the southeastern CONUS,
promoting dry and seasonal conditions. This ridge will move east
of the state as its replaced by near zonal flow Sunday afternoon.
this will bring increased cloud cover into the area late Sunday
ahead of the next approaching positively-tilted trough dropping
southeastward from the Ohio Valley. Rain chances begin increasing
from NW to SE Sunday night and continue through Monday. Likely
PoPs expected across north Georgia Monday and high-end chance PoPs
elsewhere. There will be some instability as this next frontal
system pushed SE across the state Monday so have kept slight
chance thunder in the forecast. SBCAPE values Monday afternoon
expected in the 500-800 J/kg range especially across central
portions of the state. Forecast shear and lapse rates aloft appear
to be fairly marginal, so the probability of organized severe
weather is low, but some isolated strong thunderstorms are not
entirely out of the question. Will continue to monitor in ensuing
forecasts.

Although the trough axis is anticipated to clear the forecast area
late Monday night, a weak upper shortwave behind the main trough
could lead to some additional light showers on Tuesday. Some model
disagreement exists regarding the nature of this disturbance, so
PoPs on Tuesday were limited to chance or lower. Upper-level
ridging will return to the southeastern CONUS Wednesday, along
with surface high pressure building southward from east of the
Appalachians. Dry conditions will subsequently return Wednesday
and continue through day 7. With these dry conditions and mainly
clear skies, temperatures will begin in increase, from the upper
50s to mid 60s on Wednesday to 70s by Friday.

01


&&


.FIRE WEATHER...
Low RH values can be expected again on Saturday with
widespread forecast values between 20-25 percent by Saturday
afternoon. Winds will, however, be much lighter on Saturday,
generally 5 mph or less through the afternoon. Given low forecast RH
values and continued dry fuels, an additional Fire Danger Statement
will likely be needed again on Saturday.

&&

AVIATION...
00Z Update...
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Winds will
remain NW and diminish this evening...with speeds of 4 to 6kt
overnight and continuing into Saturday.


//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          39  68  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         41  68  44  72 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     32  64  37  66 /   0   0   0  10
Cartersville    37  66  42  72 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus        42  73  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     38  66  41  69 /   0   0   0   5
Macon           40  71  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            37  65  40  70 /   0   0   0  10
Peachtree City  39  69  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         43  73  46  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...41