911
FXUS62 KFFC 151855
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
255 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Key Messages:

    - Scattered to more widespread showers and thunderstormsexpected
      through the evening into the overnight (3pm-2am) with main
      threats being gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally
      heavy rainfall.

    - Isolated to scattered storms again tomorrow with the same
      threats as today.

    - Temps beginning to heat up tomorrow with heat indices between
      100-105.


Discussion:

For today, high pressure remains to our west while Invest 93L just
pushed into the Florida pan handle near St Augustine. This has
resulted in a convergence zone along the I-85 corridor where a cu
field has already begun popping with thunderstorms. This is expected
to increase in coverage through the overnight (2am) with the main
threats being gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy
rainfall. Current SPC mesoanalysis shows 4000 sfc cape in the area
with little to no shear so these storms will definitely have
enough energy to form but likely won`t have too much movement
which could become a concern with PWATs currently at 1.8-1.9".
HREF guidance has come down a little with the 90th percentile
showing 2-3" over 6 hours with the mean ~0.5-1". Will need to keep
an eye on flooding concerns in this area but overall as long as
the storms move, shouldn`t be to much of a threat.

For tomorrow, rain chances shift to central Georgia as the low
pressure system moves across Florida. This area is more likely to
see any waves of precip with forecasted PWATs continuing to be ~2"
with this tropical environment. Main threats again are gusty
winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall. With the
rainfall though, despite temps in the low to mid 90s, should see
heat indices stay in the 100-105 range.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Key Messages:

- Diurnally-driven, scattered thunderstorms will continue through
the long term.

- Oppressive July temperatures and humidity will allow Heat Index
values soar above 105 near 110 degrees in east central Georgia over
the weekend.

Models are in agreement with a tropical disturbance moving across
north Florida this afternoon and out over the northern Gulf early
Wednesday. This feature is expected to track west over the next 48-
hours and over southern Louisiana on Thursday. While not expected to
pose a direct threat to Georgia, this disturbance will provide
sufficient moisture to the region, promoting a very dirty-ridge
pattern over the area as subtropical ridge remains in place. As a
result, expect diurnally-driven isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms to continue through the weekend. Although the threat
of severe storms is low in this pattern, sufficient moisture and
surface heating could produce a few strong storms. And given the
moisture, any training or slow moving storms could pile up the
rainfall. Though most areas will see less than a half inch daily,
localized downpours could produce 1-2 inches.

For the weekend - and already a concern - is the warming temperature
trends, particularly over portions of central and eastern Georgia.
At this time, forecast high temperatures Friday through Sunday are
well into the mid to upper 90s, with a few places approaching 100.
The combination of these temperatures, humidity, and sunny
conditions will produce extremely high Heat Index values and WBGT
values. Based on the latest forecast, Heat Advisories would be
necessary for some of the area beginning Friday.


31

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Cu field ~5kft is currently out there with thunderstorms expected
to begin ~21z and last through 01z. Could see showers pop up as
early as 20z and last until 03z. Tomorrow morning could see IFR
conditions that will lift to VFR by mid day. Winds should remain
out of the east through the period with light winds.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on IFR and TSRA timing.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  91  73  93 /  40  30  20  40
Atlanta         75  91  75  93 /  40  20  20  40
Blairsville     67  86  68  87 /  40  30  40  60
Cartersville    74  94  73  94 /  30  20  20  40
Columbus        75  92  74  93 /  40  40  10  50
Gainesville     72  89  74  91 /  40  30  30  40
Macon           73  92  73  94 /  20  40  10  30
Rome            73  94  73  93 /  20  10  20  40
Peachtree City  72  91  72  93 /  40  20  10  40
Vidalia         75  93  75  95 /  10  30  10  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...Hernandez