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000
FXUS62 KFFC 261749
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
149 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1059 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018/

UPDATE...

With abundant cloud cover for most of the morning, temperatures
continue to struggle with mid 70s the rule for most of North and
portions of Central Georgia. With a convective temp off the
morning sounding of 82, may take a while for conditions to become
conducive for shower or thunderstorm formation. Further, hi res
guidance is not all that excited on prospects for higher coverage
today showing mostly spotty type showers for most of the day until
more sustained activity possible develops over far North GA late
this evening into the first portion of the overnight. Have
adjusted pops accordingly pushing the best time for thunderstorms
back but largely keeping pop gradient in place.

Given relative lack of anticipated precip today and the fact that
Sunday precip looks moderate at best for Central GA and
manageable, any decisions on Flood Watches will be left to the mid
shift. Even then, it may be early for issuance should Sunday turn
out to be mainly around an inch for totals as most models suggest.

Deese

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 655 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018/

UPDATE FOR AVIATION...

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 357 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018/

SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...

The flash flood watch has been cancelled.

While a tropical airmass remains over the area, deep southerly
flow should keep storms moving and thus limiting the potential
for heavy rainfall. Localized heavy rainfall will still be
possible but much more limited than the past 2 days.

With a continued moist airmass over the area, the build up of
daytime instability should cause a flare up of showers and
storms tending to maximize in the afternoon and diminish
tonight. Ongoing showers and isolated storms should briefly
diminish this morning before developing again later today.
Far north GA will be slightly favored for the best chances for
showers and storms.

The effects of Subtropical Storm Alberto will begin to be felt on
Sunday as deep tropical moisture moves over much of the forecast
are from the south. This will increase shower and storm chances
across the forecast area.

BDL

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...

Primary feature in the extended forecast picture is obviously
Subtropical Storm Alberto and the likely impacts on north and central
Georgia. Current forecast path keeps most of the direct tropical
storm impacts west of the area, however, any slight shifts east or
west would potentially greatly change the forecast for the forecast
area. Populated the extended forecast grids with blended model data
and made only slight adjustments. Medium range models have remained
relatively consistent over the past few cycles concerning the
evolution of Alberto and are fairly close concerning the potential
path. Biggest potential problem we should see based on the current
forecast path and intensity would be the renewed chances for more
widespread heavy rainfall as we head into the first half of next
week. With soils across the forecast area at or near saturation and
streamflows running largely above normal, the threat for at least
isolated to scattered flooding issues should ramp back up.

The latter half of next week, in the wake of Alberto, should see some
drying. However the lack of any strong upper ridging or other
suppressive force combined with lower but still ample moisture,
should see scattered, probably somewhat more diurnal, convection
continue over the region.

20

Hydrology...
A flash flood watch may be needed in the future due to the effects
of Alberto and potential heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts from
Sunday and through next week will range from 2.5 to 4 inches and
locally higher amounts will be possible.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

After and IFR to occasional LIFR start to the day, conditions have
improved nicely although still a smattering of MVFR cigs to deal
with. The most pressing issue has been how to deal with the TSRA
potential as all of the hi res has been downplaying the chances
with each run. Have chosen to pare back to just VCTS and TEMPO in
SHRA for now. A return to low cigs possible tonight but once again
looks late, perhaps after 12Z. Should be short lived again as
conditions improve quickly Sunday morning paving the way for more
sustained SHRA activity Sun afternoon. Winds at ATL have gone SSW
but very light and should go back to the east side this evening.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
Medium on TSRA potential.
High on remaining elements.

Deese

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          83  67  80  67 /  40  50  60  70
Atlanta         84  68  80  68 /  40  40  60  70
Blairsville     78  63  77  64 /  60  60  60  70
Cartersville    84  67  82  67 /  50  50  60  70
Columbus        87  69  79  71 /  40  40  80  70
Gainesville     82  67  80  67 /  50  50  60  70
Macon           85  68  80  70 /  40  40  80  70
Rome            85  67  82  67 /  40  50  60  60
Peachtree City  84  67  80  68 /  40  40  70  70
Vidalia         86  70  81  70 /  50  40  80  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Deese
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...Deese