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000
FXUS62 KFFC 210736
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
336 AM EDT Sun Oct 21 2018

.SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...

All in all a rather quiet short term forecast with a dry airmass
over the area.

Will issue a Freeze warning for tonight for Towns and Union counties
as low temperatures will be around 32 for at least portions of both
counties. Also will include "Areas of Frost" for other portions of
north and central GA where the Dew point depressions are not too
large as we will have an excellent radiative night.

Forecast high temperatures are running 7-12 degrees below normal
today with some even cooler areas in the mountains. Forecast high
temperatures for Monday are running 3-8 degrees below normal.
Forecast low temperatures tonight are running 8-15 degrees below
normal and slightly warmer in some northeast mountain locations.

BDL


.LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...

A rather tranquil pattern as the long term portion begins with
area in between major pressure systems and in a largely zonal flow
aloft. There is plenty of southern stream energy and this begins
to act in conjunction with old frontal boundary across the gulf
coast states. The big question the last few days and what models
continue to struggle with is how quickly this activity translates
northward. The latest consensus is that at least through Wed, area
should remain pop free with activity remaining to the south.

Things begin to change in a big way on Thu as additional impulses
traverse southern stream to allow for a stronger area of low
pressure to develop over the northern Gulf and along the coast.
ECMWF now the furthest north with this activity which is a
departure from previous runs. This is especially accentuated by
Thu night as low begins to enter SW GA on the ECMWF and remains
over the Gulf per the GFS. No choice but to continue using a blend
for this time period yielding chance pops.

GFS does eventually track low across the area as well but not
until late Friday in to Sat so may be more of a timing difference
at this point. No respite after low passes to the east as strong
closed upper low moves across the area late Sat into Sun.
Actually get some elevated instability with this feature but will
hold off on any thunder mention for now.

Deese


&&

.AVIATION... 06Z Update... VFR conditions are expected with just
some passing high clouds this morning. Surface winds NNW-NNE
across the area 8-15 kts with gusts 15-25 kts diminishing this
morning to around 10 kts or less.

//ATL Confidence...06 Update...
High confidence for all elements to start.
Low confidence for which side of North the wind direction
 will favor 14-20z Today.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          63  37  68  46 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         62  41  66  48 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     57  33  63  38 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    60  33  66  44 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        66  40  70  52 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     62  38  65  45 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           65  34  69  50 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            60  35  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  63  34  67  46 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         67  42  72  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for the following
zones: Fannin...Gilmer...Towns...Union.

Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Monday for the
following zones: Towns...Union.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....Deese
AVIATION...BDL