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497
FXUS62 KFFC 211136
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
730 AM EDT Wed Apr 21 2021


.SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...

A trough deepening over the eastern half of the country was
helping to push a cold front into northwest GA this morning. This
front should move through north and central GA today. Moisture is
limited so no precipitation is expected. Behind the front...low
relative humidity and windy conditions will combine with drying
fuels to heighten fire danger today. However...relative humidity
values look like they will remain above 25 percent this afternoon.
So with northwest winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts to near
30...and fuel moisture below 8 percent...a Fire Danger Statement
has been issued for the afternoon. The Fire Danger Statement
replaces the Fire Weather Watch. The Wind Advisory will be
continued for today also.

Overnight low temperatures will drop into the 30s over much of
the forecast area. Lows near freezing still look reasonable for
the far northeast and the Freeze Watch has been upgraded to a
Freeze Warning. Elsewhere...patchy frost is possible toward
Thursday morning as wind speeds drop off.

Critical fire conditions are possible for Thursday as relative
humidity values are expected to drop into the low 20s for much of
east central GA. This will continue to be monitored.

41

&&


.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...

Friday will bring weak ridging aloft as surface high pressure
shifts eastward from the spine of the Appalachians to just
offshore of the Carolinas. Low-level moisture will increase across
western Georgia through the day as the surface high pressure
circulation drives southerly flow across the CWA. As a result, the
greatest potential for fire danger conditions on Friday will be
across the eastern portion of the CWA, where relative humidity is
forecast to fall to 23% to 25% for several hours in the afternoon.

Models continue to be in good agreement with the timing and big
picture of the weekend system. A 500-mb trough will eject
northeast across the ArkLaTex and TN Valley over the course of
late Friday night through Saturday afternoon. However, the track
of the associated surface low -- and the placement of its warm
front across the CWA -- are more uncertain at this point. The GFS
is still suggesting strong low-level flow (40-50 kts at 925 mb and
50-60 kts at 850 mb) out of the south to southwest, as well as
ample instability, so strong to severe storms will be a concern
during the daytime hours. The placement/progression of the warm
front will largely dictate where the threat for severe storms will
be maximized. Have a slight chance to chance of showers and a
slight chance of thunderstorms for late Saturday night into early
Sunday morning, as the upper trough axis and moisture push off to
the east.

In addition to the potential for strong to severe storms, heavy
rain will also be a concern as progged PWATs of 1.5-1.7 inches
across central Georgia are near the daily maximum per sounding
climatology. Fortunately, 6-hour QPF through the event should be
manageable given the recent dry conditions and normal to below-
normal streamflows. That said, any locally heavier or longer-
lasting rainfall -- especially across north Georgia and metro
Atlanta -- could lead to localized flash flooding and quick rises
of creeks, streams, and rivers.

Monday and Tuesday look to be sunny to mostly sunny, dry, and
warm courtesy of a stout upper ridge building across the eastern
half of the CONUS.

Martin

&&


AVIATION...
12Z Update...
VFR conditions through the period. A dry cold front will bring
FEW/SCT mid/high clouds mainly for the northern sites this morning
then clearing. Winds increasing from the west becoming northwest
15-20 kts gusting close to 30 kts after 14z. Winds diminishing after
02z Thursday.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High on all elements.

41

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          63  36  65  42 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         59  38  65  45 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     50  30  59  37 /  10   0   0  10
Cartersville    58  33  64  41 /   5   0   0   0
Columbus        67  40  68  46 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     58  36  63  42 /   5   0   0   0
Macon           70  37  68  41 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            58  34  65  41 /   5   0   0   5
Peachtree City  61  35  65  42 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         78  42  68  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening
for the following zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bartow...
Bibb...Bleckley...Butts...Carroll...Catoosa...Chattahoochee...
Chattooga...Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...
Crawford...Crisp...Dade...Dawson...DeKalb...Dodge...Dooly...
Douglas...Emanuel...Fannin...Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth...
Gilmer...Glascock...Gordon...Greene...Gwinnett...Hall...
Hancock...Haralson...Harris...Heard...Henry...Houston...
Jackson...Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar...
Laurens...Lumpkin...Macon...Madison...Marion...Meriwether...
Monroe...Montgomery...Morgan...Murray...Muscogee...Newton...
North Fulton...Oconee...Oglethorpe...Paulding...Peach...
Pickens...Pike...Polk...Pulaski...Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...
South Fulton...Spalding...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...
Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Towns...Treutlen...
Troup...Twiggs...Union...Upson...Walker...Walton...Warren...
Washington...Webster...Wheeler...White...Whitfield...Wilcox...
Wilkes...Wilkinson.

Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for the following
zones: Fannin...Gilmer...Lumpkin...Towns...Union...White.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...41