Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000
FXUS62 KFFC 220325
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1125 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022



.UPDATE...

Convective coverage has waned across the area from previous
outflow interactions or weak impulse influences. We could have
another round of some low level stratocu late tonight into
tomorrow morning to portions of the area and some residual low
level moisture from evening showers/storms could aid patchy fog
development as well. Otherwise should be a pretty quiet night with
little change made to the forecast. Previous discussion follows...

00z Aviation update below.

Baker

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 341 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022/

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...

Isolated convection across the area will increase over the next
several hours, especially across central Georgia. A longwave
trough will remain stalled over the upper Mississippi valley in
the upper levels with the surface mainly on the western portions
of a Bermuda high. This keeps deep south to southwest flow and
increasing moisture across the area.

A weak upper level disturbance lifting out of the northeast Gulf
of Mexico will aid in the development of scattered showers and
thunderstorms across central GA late this afternoon and evening.
While there is good instability to tap into, shear is limited.
Further north across the forecast area much of the convection
will be mainly diurnally driven, with a weak cap noted. The best
timing for convection north of I-20 will be 6-10 pm and generally
be the summertime pop up variety. Expect convection to diminish
overnight, but could see isolated showers continuing into the
early morning hours.

The modes are in pretty good agreement bringing a weak cold front
into the area by late morning or early afternoon on Sunday. With
little support aloft, the front will stall over or just west of
the western portions of forecast area. Once again expect some
early morning cloud cover to scatter out in the afternoon. While
POPs will be higher tomorrow, expect these clouds to once again
inhibit convective development until later in the afternoon.

Guidance temperatures are close and seem reasonable given the
weather pattern and see no reason to stray too far.

Atwell

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...

The full extent of the cold front mentioned in the short term will
be realized Monday with high temperatures north of I20 maxing in the
upper 70s to low 80s and south of I20 in the upper 80s -- near
normal values for this time of year. Meanwhile southerly flow aloft
and a surface high off the Atlantic Seaboard will keep the process
of advecting moisture into the area going setting the stage for
multiple days of shower and thunderstorm chances throughout the long
term. Given how dry it has been across the Peach State recently and
with a large mount of the state in abnormally dry status this
rainfall will be very welcomed.

Monday into Tuesday an upper level shortwave will cross the area.
The surface response to the wave will help pull a "blob" of Gulf
moisture into the area. With a stationary surface front settled
across southcentral GA and deep boundary layer moisture across the
entire state much of the area will see convection. This activity
will start out as rainfall, but by late morning and into the
afternoon with surface based CAPEs at nearly 1000 J/kg thunderstorms
will become more likely. As with all summer time convection a few
storms may over perform and become severe, but the over all threat
looks to low.

Wednesday, with old boundaries lingering and perturbations in the
upper level flow, afternoon diurnally driven rain showers and
thunderstorms will be possible. All of this will occur ahead of a
deeper upper level trough and associated cold front moving across
east out of the Southern Plains.

The real fun comes on Thursday... as the aforementioned upper level
trough moves eastward it will try to form a closed low as upper
level divergent flow develops over the CWA. Meanwhile, at the
surface the front will begin to work with the copious amounts of
moisture we have been ingesting over the past week. This combined
with daytime heating could result in an afternoon of strong to
severe storms. As of now SBCAPEs are progged to be over 1500J/kg
with 20kts of 0-1km Bulk Shear. We will have to see how this evolves
over time, but for now it certainly bears watching. It should also
be noted that along with severe weather risks there could be a risk
of flooding across NE GA where storm totals could be near 2 inches.

Rain showers and a few thunderstorms could linger into the Friday as
the front full exists the FA. The post front airmass will be drier
as northwest flow aloft and at the surface develop next weekend.

28

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Initial VFR conditions and some lingering mid to upper level
clouds, then could have some MVFR cigs building into some of the
sites after about 10z Sunday morning then some gradual lifting
during the day. Some patchy fog is possible as well that could
reduce vsbys or even lower cigs at sites that had some nearby
showers/storms this evening. SHRA chances increase for Sunday day
at all sites along with TSRA potential mainly for the southern
sites in the afternoon. Any SHRA/TSRA could have reduced vsbys to
MVFR. Winds mainly SW through much of the period near 5-8 kts.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium on Sunday morning cigs and Sunday afternoon TSRA coverage.
High on all else.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  86  65  83 /  30  50  50  80
Atlanta         68  84  67  80 /  20  50  50  80
Blairsville     63  82  61  74 /  30  80  70  80
Cartersville    66  84  65  79 /  20  60  60  80
Columbus        68  84  66  83 /  20  60  60  70
Gainesville     67  85  67  80 /  30  50  50  80
Macon           66  87  65  86 /  30  50  50  70
Rome            68  85  65  79 /  20  80  70  70
Peachtree City  65  83  64  80 /  20  50  50  80
Vidalia         68  88  68  90 /  40  50  50  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Atwell/Baker
LONG TERM....28
AVIATION...Baker


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