280
FXUS62 KFFC 270725
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
325 AM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 242 AM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Key Messages:

 - High fire danger concerns both today and Friday due to dry
   fuels and low relative humidity.

 - Warm to very warm temperatures across the area through Friday.

Warm and dry conditions will continue through the end of the work
week, with fire danger being the primary concern. This setup will
be driven by an upper level shortwave over the southern Plains
pushing a ridge and associated surface high pressure over the
southeast US. That shortwave will move into the area over the
weekend and be the start of more active weather, which is
discussed in the long term section below. Until then, a dry
airmass and warm southerly flow will lead to low relative humidity
values each day (15-25% today, increasing to 20-30% on Friday).
While winds will be on the light side (less than 10 mph) the low
RH values and dry vegetation have prompted a Fire Danger Statement
for all of north and central Georgia for this afternoon into the
evening. Residents should avoid outdoor burning with these
conditions in place. Aside from the fire concerns, the weather
will be very pleasant, with high temperatures today in the mid to
upper 70s, rising to the upper 70s to low 80s on Friday, which is
about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year!

Culver

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 242 AM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Key Messages:

 - Our prolonged period of fire weather concerns should come to
   an end this weekend.

 - Rain and thunderstorms are likely between Saturday night and
   Monday, with a risk of severe weather expected Sunday night
   into Monday.

Improving Fire Weather Conditions Saturday:

Southerly surface winds should be prevalent in Georgia Saturday,
driven by the gradient between a surface high in the Atlantic and
an elongated surface trough stretching from Texas to the Great
Lakes. These winds should advect higher surface dewpoints into the
state, and lead to afternoon relative humidity minimums that are
safely above 25%. This should negate our prolonged bout of fire
weather concerns and thus a Fire Danger Statement is not
anticipated for Saturday (< 10% chance). The one caveat would be
if winds are strong enough (gusts in excess of 25 mph) to produce
high fire dangers driven primarily by gusty winds and dry fuels in
western Georgia during the afternoon.

Thunderstorm Chances between Saturday Night and Monday:

Increased low level moisture will leave the Southeastern U.S.
primed for greater instability and potential thunderstorms as a
pair of shortwave troughs impact the area over the weekend and
early next week. The initial shortwave should lift out of Texas
Saturday and bring precipitation to Georgia between Saturday night
and Sunday. Rumbles of thunder will be possible, but warm air in
the mid levels (700-500 mb lapse rates below 6 C/km per ECMWF and
GFS soundings) are unfavorable for severe convection. Though a
variation of around 6 hours remains in the model guidance, this
looks like late night and morning event. Thus Saturday and the
later part of Sunday may be dry for much of the state.

A second more vigorous shortwave will move from the Central
Plains into the Great Lakes between Sunday night and Monday. This
is the feature that the SPC is keying on in their current severe
weather outlooks, and it does appear as though it will bring the
potential for severe weather to Georgia. This said, there are
still some questions regarding how expansive the severe threat
will be, and overall forecaster confidence in widespread severe
convection remains modest. Ahead of this feature lapse rates in
the 6.8 to 7.8 C/km range are progged and this could favor more
intense updrafts. Toss in 35 to 55 kt of surface to 500 mb bulk
shear and mean MUCAPE values in the GEFS and EPS means above 800
J/kg, and the basic parameters for severe convection should be
present. The timing of the troughs passage hints at this being
another overnight or early morning event in north Georgia. If this
pans out then the severe risk could be hindered by typical
diurnal trends. Across central Georgia diurnal heating could
increase instability and the potential severe threat during the
day on Sunday. Any shifts of 6 to 12 hours in the timing of the
troughs passage would shift this scenario. Though it is still a
long ways out, the favored storm mode with this event look to be
linear (squall line) and this would suggest damaging straight line
winds as a primary hazard type. A lower risk of hail or a brief
low end tornado may also be present. The overall timing and
intensity of this event should become better defined as we move
into Friday and CAM guidance becomes available.

Albright

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 AM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

VFR to continue through the 06Z TAF period with primarily SKC and
intermittent FEW-SCT CIGs at 20-25kft. Winds will be light (5-7
kts or less) through the period, shifting from the NE-E by this
morning and then SE-S from this afternoon through the rest of the
period. ATL sites could see a brief switch to SSW winds around
21Z-00Z.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High confidence for all elements.

Culver

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  48  80  56 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         75  52  81  59 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     69  45  75  52 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    76  50  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        79  52  83  59 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     72  49  78  56 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           77  49  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            77  48  81  57 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  76  50  81  57 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         77  51  83  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...Culver