Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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325
FXUS62 KFFC 221833
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
233 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024



...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 218 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

While quiet conditions will remain in place through the remainder
of the day today, some changes to our dry pattern will begin to
manifest by tomorrow. Upper ridging will continue to flatten and
transition to zonal flow by tomorrow. Meanwhile, at the surface, a
cold front will sag into the Tennessee Valley and become
stationary. With the stalled frontal boundary to the north, the
bulk of shower and thunderstorm coverage will remain situated
across the Tennessee Valley region tomorrow.

With that said, as a subtle midlevel shortwave pushes eastward
Thursday afternoon into the Tennessee Valley, showers and
thunderstorms will develop and spread eastward as instability
increases. The primary coverage and trajectory of this activity
should remain across Tennessee and into the Carolinas during the
afternoon and early evening. However, the trailing end of this
convection could affect portions of far north Georgia. Given
SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and favorable bulk shear, an isolated
severe threat, primarily in the form of damaging wind gusts, could
be realized in areas of far north Georgia. Otherwise, for areas
near and south of I-20, dry conditions will persist for another
day on Thursday. As such, high temperatures will nudge a few
degrees higher on Thursday, and low 90s will begin to sneak back
into Middle Georgia with upper 80s across the bulk of the
remainder of the area.

RW


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 218 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

An active weather pattern and increasing temperatures are
expected across north and central Georgia this holiday weekend
into early next week.

The start of the long term period will be characterized by a
series of longwave troughs across the northern tier of the CONUS,
while across the southern tier, quasi-zonal flow and intermittent
shortwaves will be the impetus for isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms. SBCAPE should have no problem reaching 1000
J/kg or greater each day through Monday as temperatures and dew
points climb. In addition, ensemble guidance is depicting surface-
to-500mb bulk shear of 30-40 kts each day. The best overlap of
instability and shear looks to generally be across north GA, as
ensemble guidance suggests that most of the shortwaves will be
traversing the OH and TN Valleys. There will be potential each day
for some strong (possibly severe) storms with gusty to damaging
winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Should any clusters of
convection across north GA organize into MCSs and migrate
southward (which often happens in these perturbed, quasi-zonal
flow regimes), central GA could also have some strong to possibly
severe storms. Progged PWAT of 1.3" to 1.6" ranges from the 75th
to 90th percentile per sounding climatology, so some storms will
be heavy rain producers and could lead to localized flash flooding
in the event of repeated rounds of storms.

Do want to point out that SPC has introduced a 15% risk for
severe weather across Dade, Walker, Catoosa, and Whitfield
Counties in far northwest GA on Sunday (Day 5). More organized
convection appears likely on Sunday with an approaching longer-
wave trough and warm, unstable environment ahead of it across the
TN Valley. Will need to monitor severe weather forecast parameters
on Monday and Tuesday as well, as this dynamic trough shifts
eastward across the Southeast while the associated surface low
tracks northeastward across the MS and OH Valleys. For now,
maintaining chance to likely PoPs both days with a chance for
thunderstorms.

For the majority of the long term period, highs will be in the
upper 80s to lower 90s, and lows will be in the mid-60s to lower
70s (with the exception of the typically cooler conditions in the
mountains).

Martin


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. SCT cu in the
4-6 kft range will persist through the evening. Additional VFR cu
in the 4-6 kft range can be expected on Thursday. Iso/sct
SHRA/TSRA chances are expected to remain relegated north of TAF
sites across far north GA on Thurs PM. Wind direction will remain
SSW to SW through the period at speeds of 3-7 kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence.

RW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  88  67  86 /   0  20  20  40
Atlanta         69  88  68  87 /   0  10  10  30
Blairsville     61  80  61  78 /  10  30  30  70
Cartersville    66  88  66  86 /  10  20  20  50
Columbus        68  90  68  89 /   0  10  10  20
Gainesville     67  86  67  84 /  10  30  20  50
Macon           68  89  68  89 /   0  10  10  10
Rome            66  88  66  86 /  10  30  30  60
Peachtree City  66  88  67  88 /   0  10  10  30
Vidalia         69  90  71  91 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...RW