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000
FXUS62 KFFC 290534
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
134 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023

No significant forecast concerns or weather impacts expected
through the short term period.

Tropical low tracking on a more northerly course along upper
SC/lower NC coasts and other than some cumulus, good clearing
behind it over GA. Due to high over low block over the eastern
CONUS and upper low well established over the SE US just east of
the state, temps will remain below normal with relatively dry air.
If this pattern had set up a few weeks later, would likely have
seen more active convection. No complaints here.

Monday will be cool and dry much like today. Some clouds possible
over north GA in the morning and midday but clearing in the
afternoon.

SNELSON

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023

Starting off the forecast on Tuesday the low pressure currently over
the Carolinas will start to move back over the Atlantic which will
dry out eastern Georgia. This low pressure is also bringing in
colder air which is keeping temperatures at bay for much of the area
and keeping max temps in the 70s for much of north and central
Georgia through early next week. Models have come into better
agreement where there is a forecasted drier trend in the middle of
the week, but the gulf low and wedge will still play into what
happens later in the week. Off the coast of Louisiana a low pressure
system will be forming by mid week whereas a wedge looks to set up
over NE Georgia mid week. The models differ on the arrival later in
the week with the GFS giving a wetter model while the ECMWF is
showing a drier run. The GFS is indicating the wedge will shift back
as the gulf low becomes slightly stronger allowing moisture into
central Georgia by Thursday into Friday. The ECMWF is showing that
the wedge hangs on and the gulf low doesn`t get that much stronger
and keeping the rain out of our area until more of the Friday
Saturday time frame. Based off of past trends and ensemble guidance
in addition to deterministic, decided to keep low end PoPs mainly in
central Georgia for Thursday and Friday and then extending the
chance PoPs into more of north Georgia by the weekend.

With these chance PoPs, showers and thunderstorms are possible with
lightning and gusty winds being the main threats. With the wedge in
place temps are forecast to warm to the mid 80s for highs in central
Georgia but stay in the mid to upper 70s for northeast  through this
week.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 133 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023

A quiet night with a couple of high VFR clouds for ATL. Winds will
remain out of the NW at 4-7 kts.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...

High on all elements.

Vaughn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          60  81  62  81 /  10  20  10  30
Atlanta         61  82  64  83 /   0  10   0  20
Blairsville     55  76  58  77 /  10  30  10  40
Cartersville    57  83  63  85 /   0  20   0  20
Columbus        62  85  66  88 /   0  10   0  20
Gainesville     60  80  63  80 /  10  20  10  30
Macon           60  85  64  86 /   0  10   0  20
Rome            58  84  64  85 /   0  20   0  20
Peachtree City  58  83  63  84 /   0  10   0  20
Vidalia         62  87  67  87 /   0  10   0  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Vaughn