708
FXUS62 KFFC 151846
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
246 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 232 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

The main focus for this AFD is the showers ongoing over the area
with isolated thunderstorms. Overall, expecting very summerlike
pop up showers when it comes to this afternoon and evening, with
no real severe threat. After the upper level low centered over
Tennessee causing these showers moves to the east, your forecast
should remain dry until Friday. Gusty winds will be the main
concern with gusts up to 25mph this afternoon into the evening.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 232 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

The first 2 days of the extended period will likely be the majority
of the sensible weather for the extended period. The period begins
with a mid level disturbance located over the Mid MS valley early
Friday within the modest mid level flow of the jet extending back
over TX and Mexico. The tail end of the CAMS including the WRF FV3,
ARW, NAM3km and HRRR in fairly good agreement that a remnant or
decaying MCS could be approaching the region by early Friday..which
is entirely possible given upper support and surface based
instability available to the west of the region during the day on
Thu. If that`s the case, early Friday may be more of a rain shield
with embedded thunderstorms type of start to the day...which in turn
could limit the amount of destabilization that occurs during the day
Friday. The NAM3km tries to surge north much higher CAPE values
behind the departing MCS but fails to reach the southern CWA by the
end of the run Friday eve. Similar to the thinking in the previous
AFD, there is likely going to be a significant increase in
instability toward the gulf coast which may act serve as a
deterrent to convection further north and help keep the main axis
of any MCS development further to the south. All of that being
said, there is still a higher likelihood of widespread showers
and a few embedded thunderstorms north of any MCS which tracks to
the south...hence NBM guidance is ranging 60-80 pops late Friday
through Saturday.

Saturday`s forecast remains a bit more uncertain given the
uncertainty in how Friday plays out, however, given the proximity of
the upper support over TN, modest mid and upper level jet energy,
sufficient deep and low level shear, there is a risk for severe
storms early through mid day Saturday....under the assumption that
an MCS to the south or early in the day doesn`t disrupt surface
heating processes. GFS soundings for W. GA midday Saturday certainly
support a severe risk, but given the many uncertainties in how
things evolve leading into Saturday, SPC correctly went the
conservative route with no outlined risk for Saturday. The CSU MLP
severe risk outlined for Day 4(Saturday) is in line with what the
potential could be IF other factors don`t come into play, which is
possibly a 15% including some Tor and wind risk. Stay tuned for
updates.

Beyond Saturday...the main upper system from Friday/Saturday shifts
east and basically becomes stationary well offshore of the SE
coastline, but close enough to keep the region within a mid level NW
flow and pleasant weather through the remainder of the extended
period.


30

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 133 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Scattered showers should mainly stay north of I-20 but could
impact a few of the TAF sites this afternoon into evening. After
showers move out, skies should begin to clear ~23-00z and remain
there through the remainder of the TAF period. Winds currently are
from the W/NW with gusts up to 23-35kt but should start to die
down after sunset.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low confidence on showers impacting the airfield.
High on all other elements.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          60  86  61  80 /   0   0  10  50
Atlanta         61  86  65  80 /   0   0  10  60
Blairsville     57  79  57  74 /  20   0  20  70
Cartersville    57  85  62  79 /  10   0  20  60
Columbus        62  89  67  84 /   0   0  20  60
Gainesville     61  85  62  77 /   0   0  10  60
Macon           63  88  65  84 /  10   0  10  40
Rome            58  86  62  80 /   0   0  20  70
Peachtree City  60  87  63  80 /   0   0  20  60
Vidalia         65  88  68  87 /  10   0   0  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...Hernandez