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000
FXUS62 KFFC 121959
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
259 PM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Wet conditions will continue through the short term periods. As an
upper level wave deepens into a low over Texas by tomorrow
afternoon and slowly shifts into the lower Mississippi Valley
overnight Tuesday, several weak surface lows will lift out of the
Gulf of Mexico. Overrunning across the area ahead of the surface
waves, will bring periods of heavy rain through Tuesday afternoon.
Winds will be east through daybreak across much of the area before
shifting to the northwest through the late morning hours. The
proximity of the surface waves will keep rain chances categorical
across much of central GA with chances across much of north and
northwest GA Abundant clouds will keep temperatures from changing
too much across the area, with afternoon highs below normal and
overnight lows near normal.

Atwell


.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...

No significant deviation from previous forecast trends through the
extended forecast period. Strongly diffluent upper pattern over the
region Wednesday ahead of the deep upper low digging into the Lower
Mississippi Valley. Should see more rounds of heavy rain through at
least early Thursday with this pattern. Medium-range models continue
to show little instability Wednesday through Thursday, and severe
thunderstorm chances look low. However, northwestern half of the
forecast area will be coming off of a very wet short-term forecast
period and precipitable water values will remain seasonally very
high across the southeastern half, so flooding potential will
remain an issue. Upper low quickly begins filling and lifting
northeast by Thursday bringing a quick end to the precipitation.
Models in good agreement on showing the upper flow undergoing a
rapid de- amplification as the low lifts out keeping the coldest
air well north of the state. Dry weather and cool to seasonal
temperatures for the end of the work week, through the weekend and
into the beginning of next week.

20


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Latest storm totals indicate potential for an additional 2 to 4
inch rainfall across the area with locally higher amounts through
Thursday. The heaviest rainfall is forecast mainly through
Wednesday morning across north Georgia with additional amounts
across central Georgia Wednesday into Thursday. Have issued a
Flood Watch for north and portions of central GA generally along
and north of a La Grange to Homer line. We may need to extend the
watch in time and area as confidence grows in forecast of wave
Wednesday into Thursday.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1255 PM EST Mon Nov 12 2018/
AVIATION...
18Z Update...
IFR conditions at the TAF sites will deteriorate to LIFR between
20-23Z and remain down until 14-16Z tomorrow with a modest
improvement to MVFR. East winds will continue at 10-15kts with
gusts to 20kts possible through 21Z, then diminishing to 5-10kts
after 00Z. Winds will shift out of the NW tomorrow between 12-15Z
at 5-10kts. Visibilities will remain 1-4SM with RA and periods of
RA+ throughout the period as well as patchy fog.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements

Atwell

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          45  55  43  48 / 100 100  50  60
Atlanta         48  52  43  49 / 100 100  40  70
Blairsville     43  50  37  49 / 100  90  30  60
Cartersville    46  50  40  49 / 100 100  30  60
Columbus        56  60  46  53 / 100 100  50  80
Gainesville     44  53  42  48 / 100 100  40  60
Macon           55  61  47  52 /  90 100  50  70
Rome            46  49  39  48 / 100  90  30  60
Peachtree City  49  54  43  50 / 100 100  40  70
Vidalia         60  71  51  56 /  60  80  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for the following zones:
Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Carroll...Catoosa...Chattooga...
Cherokee...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Dade...Dawson...DeKalb...
Douglas...Fannin...Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth...Gilmer...Gordon...
Gwinnett...Hall...Haralson...Heard...Henry...Jackson...Lumpkin...
Meriwether...Murray...Newton...North Fulton...Paulding...
Pickens...Pike...Polk...Rockdale...South Fulton...Spalding...
Towns...Troup...Union...Walker...Walton...White...Whitfield.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Atwell
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...Atwell