Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS62 KFFC 241737

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
137 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1118 AM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018/

Made some changes to the POP grids this observations
indicate some rainfall is making its way to the sfc across far
north Georgia.

Morning water vapor loop indicates weak NW flow in the mid and
upper levels across the Southeast...with a notable shortwave
trough located upstream across Iowa and moving southeast. A sfc
reflection of the wave can be seen as an area of low pressure
across Missouri...with a cold front extending SW into Oklahoma and
a warm front extending SE into Georgia. This front along with
associated 850-700mb WAA is helping supply lift across the area
and is the primary source for the shower activity across the
north. This is expected to continue over the next few
hours...before rain chances then again increase from the north and
west ahead of the cold front as it starts approaching. Highest
chance for rain today is forecast to remain across mainly north
Georgia. Isolated thunder still looks possible later this
afternoon. Highs still expected upper 60s north to upper 70s
central. Strong developing wedge of high pressure currently in
the Carolinas looks to begin to build across far northeast Georgia
by the afternoon and temper highs in the 50s.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 648 AM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 355 AM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018/

SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...
The short term period begins with an abundance of clouds of the
mid level variety. Still seeing some very light returns on FFC
radar for the far northern sections, but observation sites
indicate most if not all not reaching the ground at the moment.
Much warmer conditions than previous nights with many areas
remaining in the 50s at this hour.

Shortwave over the Tennessee Valley that has been responsible for
potential light rain for the north will be transition NE and away
from the local area through this morning. Additional energy will
be on its heels however and should see increase in coverage of
light rain for the northern tier during the afternoon with likely
pops now advertised. Still little to no CAPE associated with this
feature and will carry just -RA for now in the grids. Temperatures
will be held down in these locations with highs not getting out of
the 50s. Different story further south with a substantial warmup
in store and highs in the mid 70s.

Rain chances to continue their increase into Sat night as surface
low approaches from the NW. Should see just enough instability per
ensemble members to warrant isolated thunder mention in the grids.
Some loss of deep layer moisture as low slips south and will only
carry mid to high end chance pops for the remainder of North and
Central GA.


LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...
The models are rather consistent indicating a CAD airmass will
have or will be moving over the area to start the long term with
rain chances continuing through Monday as there is potential for
moisture to overrun the CAD airmass to cause chances for light rain
and occasional drizzle. While rain chances seem to diminish Monday
night and Tuesday, the CAD airmass will still be in place and patchy
or occasional drizzle can still be expected.

With the onset of the colder CAD airmass later Sunday night and early
Monday, there is some potential for a rain/freezing rain mix over
the far northeast mountain counties. This will continue to be watched
for anything more significant.

The GFS and European are somewhat inconsistent with the timing
of the moisture with the next system with the GFS more progressive
and the European slower. In any event, a slow moving cold front
is forecast to move across the area on Friday as a short wave
catches up to the front and gives it a push through the area.
Rain chances increase over n GA Wed/Wed night and across much
of the rest of the area into Thursday night, with rain chances
diminishing on Friday, then a dry start to the weekend for Saturday.
Not a lot of instability is forecast with this system and just went
with a slight chance of thunderstorms on Thursday over portions of
N and W GA.

Temperatures start out near to below normal on Sunday night then
well below normal for the high temperatures on Monday. Temperature
will begin to moderate on Tuesday then warm to above normal Wednesday
into Friday.



18Z Update...
FEW-SCT high-end MVFR/low-end VFR can be found across a majority
of the area this afternoon underneath a higher BKN VFR deck around
080-100. Expect this continue into the evening where thereafter
do expect cigs to lower significantly. Rain will also move in from
the north and west overnight and with this do expect ceilings to
lower to MVFR and possibly IFR. These low cigs should then stick
around into Sunday afternoon with lingering light showers and some
drizzle as a strong wedge of high pressure builds in. Winds will
remain on the west side into most of the overnight before becoming
somewhat variable and then turning NE Sunday morning as the wedge
moves in. Wind speeds will stay elevated at ~8-11kts tonight into
Sunday morning where there could then be some gusts towards 20kts
into and through the afternoon on Sunday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on ceiling trends.
High on all other elements.



Athens          68  46  52  39 /  30  60  50  50
Atlanta         71  56  63  41 /  10  50  40  50
Blairsville     56  46  54  38 /  40  80  40  40
Cartersville    70  55  63  41 /  20  60  40  50
Columbus        76  62  76  47 /   5  30  50  60
Gainesville     64  45  51  38 /  30  70  50  50
Macon           75  61  70  44 /   5  40  50  60
Rome            69  56  66  43 /  30  60  30  50
Peachtree City  73  59  66  42 /  10  50  50  60
Vidalia         75  60  69  45 /   5  30  60  60




AVIATION...Kovacik is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.