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000
FXUS62 KFFC 250835
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
435 AM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

.SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/...

Zonal upper level flow is giving way as an upper level ridge builds
along the gulf coast. This upper level ridge is expected to continue
to strengthen through the short term becoming centered over Southern
AL/GA and northern FL by 12z Tue. The upper level flow becomes more
Northwesterly with impulses continuing to move across the area.
These waves will help to produce diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms Today and Tuesday...but seeing a slight diminishing
trend in coverage as the ridge builds. Only looking for isolated to
scattered coverage with storms today and Tuesday but can not rule
out a storm or two becoming severe both days.

Temperatures are expected to continue on the warm side with heat
index values across central GA ranging from 100 to 106. Have issued
a heat advisory for the majority of central GA today and will
monitor conditions for Tuesday to see if another one will be needed
tomorrow.

01


.LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...

The long term portion begins as perhaps the most active period of
the entire extended. We will see a strong shortwave arrive late in
the day from the Tennessee Valley. This will coincide with peak
heating for Wed afternoon and CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/KG.
Associated cold pool with shortwave looks to drop 500mb temps to
around -9C, sufficient for some robust updrafts and decent hail
potential. Should also see some good wind potential as downdraft
CAPE increases through the afternoon as a likely line of storms
approaches. Have gone with highest pops for northern tier for now
but could certainly see pops needing to be raised for remainder as
Wed approaches with potential for a decent coverage event.

Focus will shift to Central GA for Thu afternoon as shortwave
traverses the remainder of the forecast area. Cannot rule out
additional small pop activity across the north although mid level
temps will be warming by this time period.

Some drying noted for the weekend, especially across NE sections
where will only carry isolated pops for Sat. Upper level high
builds in north of the area through the Ohio Valley and into the
Northeast through early next week. Eventually some deep layer
moisture will rotate around the southern periphery of this feature
to bring higher pops back to the area for early next week.


Deese


&&

.AVIATION... 06Z Update... VFR ceilings and no restrictions to
VSBYs expected to continue through this TAF period. Will see some
afternoon convection but thinking it will be again to isolated to
include in the TAF at this time. Will need to monitor closely this
afternoon as SHRA/TSRA begins to pop across the area. Winds will
stay mainly out of the W turning slowly to the NW with speeds 10kt
or less. May see a few gust to 15-20kt in and around any stronger
storms.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium to High confidence for all elements

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          94  72  91  71 /  40  30  40  30
Atlanta         92  75  91  74 /  40  30  50  20
Blairsville     86  67  85  67 /  50  30  50  20
Cartersville    92  71  92  72 /  40  30  40  20
Columbus        96  75  94  76 /  40  30  40  20
Gainesville     91  72  89  72 /  40  30  40  20
Macon           96  75  93  74 /  40  30  50  30
Rome            92  72  92  72 /  50  20  40  20
Peachtree City  93  73  92  73 /  40  30  40  20
Vidalia         96  76  94  75 /  40  40  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....Deese
AVIATION...01