342
FXUS63 KFGF 290900
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
400 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures are forecast this weekend into next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Large upper low and trough over central Canada gradually moves
east and is replaced by a broad upper ridge Friday-Sunday period
as a large upper trough moves into California and the
southwestern US. Lingering area of 850 mb moisture and stratocu
on south edge of upper low from southern Saskatchewan thru
northern North Dakota into northern Minnesota will gradually
scatter out or move out thru the next 24 hours. As flow aloft
turns southwest this weekend, there is a weak upper level
shortwave that will bring a chance for light rain Saturday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

...Synopsis...

Water vapor satellite imagery reveals a mid level shortwave
trough moving east-northeast through the Dakotas and Minnesota
amid quasi- southwesterly to zonal flow aloft. At the surface,
an occluded front is working its way west to east. Seasonably
rich moisture and even some instability resides east of the
surface front ahead of the shortwave trough. This is driving
scattered light showers within the Red River Valley and
Minnesota this afternoon. The window for additional
thunderstorms in west- central MN has closed with instability
already being shunted away to the east.

Tonight, a reinforcing cold front will reintroduce low stratus
to areas along and north of US Highway 2, with mostly clear
skies elsewhere. This along with increasing surface high
pressure nosing into the region and lightening winds may allow
temperatures to drop into the mid 20s within portions of eastern
ND.

Thursday will be seasonably cool with highs in the 40s and dry
amid the post-frontal air mass. Starting Friday, ensemble
guidance all points toward upper ridging building into the
Northern Plains. This will trend temperatures toward above
average, particularly by Saturday. The way this upper ridging
builds may also promote low stratus, fog/drizzle - this lowers
confidence in exactly how warm temperatures get. Should low
clouds/fog/drizzle linger, temperatures may be just slightly
above average with high temperatures in the 50s. However, if
skies clear, temperatures could soar well into the 60s -
especially on Sunday into Monday.

Getting into early to mid next week, ensemble guidance also
hints at an upper shortwave trough in the Southwest to either
translate or cut off eastward into the Southern and/or Central
Plains. While most of this forcing looks to remain south of our
area, there could be enough influence from this feature to bring
the next round of light rain into the forecast. With how warm
antecedent temperatures will be ahead of this feature, as well
as lack of colder air advecting behind it, rain would be the
favored precipitation type.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Clouds remain widepsread along and north of HWY 200 tonight
with KFAR the only site with clear skies. Where clouds do exist
they are largely MVFR as low as 2000 near Cando and as high as
3500 near KBJI. As the night rolls on the MVFR will spread east
affecting KTVF and KBJI though the KGFK is a little more
uncertain. There will also be breaks in the clouds allowing for
temporary 1-2 hour gaps with no clouds at all but choosing to
just prevail the MVFR/Near MVFR for now. Winds go light and
variable under clear skies tomorrow night so may be a night to
watch for fog towards the end of this TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...TT