267
FXUS63 KFGF 241151
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
651 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds to 50 mph in Devils Lake basin this morning. Wind
  Advisory in effect.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

...Synopsis...

Gusty southeast winds 30-40 mph within the Red River Valley will
gradually decrease some after sunset. However, winds do stay
elevated overnight, but not as strong as this afternoon.
Temperatures also stay quite mild in the upper 50s into the 60s
overnight, well above average for this time of year. This is a
result of a deepening low pressure system in the northern High
Plains.

This is also driving showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon into evening. Showers and weak thunderstorms will
continue to migrate north and northeast, with relatively highest
chance for lightning activity in the northern Red River Valley
into northwest MN. Very little rain amounts will result from
this, with those that see thunderstorms seeing at most half an
inch.

As the low pressure system deepens, it propagates into south-
central Canada, bringing with it a sweeping cold front still expected
to move west to east late overnight tonight into Saturday
morning. Behind the front will be shifting and increasing winds
out of the west. Confidence has increased enough to issue a Wind
Advisory for winds sustained near 30 mph and gusts to 50 mph in
the Devils Lake basin of northeast ND Saturday morning.
Similarly strengthen winds may also bleed into the far western
edge of the Red River Valley. Winds are forecast to gradually
decrease starting early afternoon Saturday.

Temperatures for Saturday will follow a non-diurnal curve, with
daily maximum temperatures likely to occur during predawn hours
Saturday ahead of the front. With the front moving through
Saturday morning, temperatures in the afternoon will be either
steady or falling.

By Saturday evening, temperatures turn seasonable with freezing
temperatures expected area wide Saturday night/Sunday morning,
as well as during the overnight/early morning periods
throughout next week, perhaps thereafter as well.

Ensemble guidance still shows potential for a hybrid-type,
progressive low pressure system to move through the Northern
Plains and Upper Midwest next week around early to mid next
week. Confidence remains low in more refined details due to
continued disagreement in modeled guidance regarding whether or
not sufficient forcing for ascent will spread into our region.
At this time, light snow looks unlikely, but cannot be
completely ruled out should forcing for ascent move through
overnight.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 651 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Showers and even a few thunderstorms going up ahead of a cold
front as it approaches the Red River Valley. Included VCSH at
KGFK and KTVF and some VCTS for KFAR as thunderstorm cells
develop south of that airport. Some MVFR ceilings as well at
KGFK and KDVL although those will be in an out for the next few
hours. The front will pass through during the next hour or two,
with conditions becoming windy from the west with gusts to 30
kts for the rest of the morning. Most sites should be VFR by
mid to late morning with showers drying out. The west winds will
slowly diminish this afternoon, with gusts down to 20 kts and
then going away completely around sunset.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for NDZ006-007-014-
     015-024-026-054.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...JR