551
FXUS63 KFGF 200545
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1145 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A more active and cooler pattern arrives next week, but the
  predictability of specific impacts is low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Some mist with visibility down to 2-5 miles, along with a bit of
light rain/drizzle at times, continues along and east of the
surface trough axis currently moving into western MN. West to
northwest winds on the backside of the trough bringing in drier
air.

UPDATE
Issued at 940 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Some lingering light rain in portions of west central and north
central MN, but tapering off and no impacts expected. Some light
mist has been developing in parts of the Red River Valley along
the axis of the surface trough, with vis down to 3-5 miles at
times. For not not seeing much lower than that but will continue
to keep an eye out for fog as the trough axis moves east.

UPDATE
Issued at 704 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Band of rain continues to extend from Upper Red Lake to just
northeast of Fargo, so adjusted POPs accordingly. Still getting
a few areas of light rain further west that are not showing up
on radar, but overall should see a decrease in the more
measurable rain and possibly a bit of fog/drizzle setting up
behind it. At this point not seeing too much in the way of
visibility reductions in our area, but will continue to monitor
as the evening progresses.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

...Synopsis...

Currently, surface low pressure is traveling across southern Canada.
To its south, a broad area of isentropic lift has sparked off
showers/light rain. Rain should end from southwest to northeast this
afternoon/evening. Stratus will remain, and with the
atmospheric column saturated from the surface to 800 mb, pockets
of drizzle will develop tonight on the MN side of the FA.
Thereafter, we will remain drier into the weekend as northwest
flow takes a firm hold over the region. There are hints of a
very subtle/weak shortwave Friday night into Saturday, but any
precipitation would be extremely light with no impacts.
Temperatures through the weekend will remain anywhere from a few
degrees above average to nearly 20 degrees above average. For
reference, average high temperatures are in the lower 30s pretty
much area wide by this time of November.

...Active and Cooler Next Week...

A pattern shift arrives early next week, with a trough digging over
the northwestern and eventually north central US. In turn, this will
bring a major cool down in temperatures. High temperatures from
Monday to Wednesday are forecasted to drop from the 40s to the
20s.

While there is high confidence in temperatures cooling down
substantially, the signal for snow is less clear. Ensembles are in
good agreement that the first period of interest for snow is Tuesday
into Tuesday night, as a surface low tracks somewhere along the
International Border. A track such as this has major implications as
for how much snow we receive, as our FA remains on the edge.
Therefore, a track just a bit more to the south would increase
snow in our northern FA. Being nearly a week out, there is
plenty of time to watch how this feature evolves.

As the low departs, drier weather will build in for Wednesday
into the Thanksgiving holiday. Even though it will be dry,
conditions will be breezy and cool. Confidence in the synoptic
pattern from Thanksgiving onwards is low, as ensembles show a
wide variety of scenarios.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

IFR conditions at the MN TAF sites, with 3-5SM vis due to light
mist. The lowered visibility should end as the trough axis moves
into the area and winds shift to the west to northwest. A mix of
VFR and MVFR on the drier, western side of the trough. Models
bring some more consistent MVFR ceilings to the ND airports
later tonight, so continued with that mention even with some
improvement currently. Clearing on the backside of the system
remains a way off, and won`t see conditions return to VFR until
later Thursday afternoon. Winds will remain northwesterly to
westerly at around 10 kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...JR