351
FXUS63 KFGF 040843
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
343 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near record warmth again today.

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
  Saturday evening across most of eastern North Dakota,
  extending into northwest Minnesota.

- Rain over most of northeastern North Dakota Saturday night into
  Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

...Synopsis...

Southwesterly flow aloft continues today, with the next
significant shortwave coming out of the main trough in the
Rockies out into the Dakotas tonight. This will help push a
surface trough and cold front into the area tonight and Sunday,
finally bringing much cooler temperatures. A bit of uncertainty
with the timing of various reinforcing shortwaves as we head
into next week, but could see some temps dipping into the 30s
during the early mornings Monday through mid-week.

...Heat today...

Warm air advection continues overnight, and 850mb temps in the
low to mid 20s C will move into our southern counties later
today. The wind shift to the northwest is just now entering our
far northwestern counties, and should only make it through
northeastern ND and the central Red River Valley before stalling
out this afternoon. While at least some high and mid cloud will
move into the south ahead of the front, there will be a fair
amount of sunshine and plenty of southerly winds to keep the
boundary layer well-mixed. Southeastern ND and portions of
northwest and west central MN ahead of the front will again
climb into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon. Record highs are
85 to 87 for Grand Forks and Fargo, so well within reach unless
the front speeds up significantly.

...Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening...

Plenty of warm air and modest dew point near 60 degrees will set
up some instability this afternoon and evening. HREF has 80 to
90 percent probability of over 1000 J/kg of cape and even a 40
percent chance for over 2000 J/kg. The best deep layer bulk
shear remains behind the cold front, but in the area of
instability there is some 25 to 40 kts that would be sufficient
if the cap is broken. The forcing won`t really be coming into
our area until after peak heating, so severe threat is still
conditional and will continue to keep messaging for 1 out of 5
risk or marginal. Hodographs and model soundings seem like hail
and damaging wind gusts would be the largest threats.

...Rain tonight into Sunday...

ECMWF EFI has 90th to 99th percentiles for high QPF from central
ND into northwestern MN. Probabilities from the HREF of over an
inch of accumulation over that same area are over 80 percent,
but going over 2 inches drops probs down to 20 percent with a
few isolated spots up to 40 percent. Full NBM is a little more
bullish on heavy rain, with up to 50 to 60 percent probability
of over 2 inches of QPF near Devils Lake. Overall, rain looks
likely tonight into Sunday, and could see some soaking amounts
in some areas.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Main impact to aviation will be high confidence in low level
wind shear between through 14Z across the region. Strongest low
level winds will maximize between 1-6kft at around 50-60kt out
of the southwest. Recent observations are suggesting localized
gusts at the surface will be in the 20-30 kt range out of the
south. This is lowering confidence in gusts tonight through
Saturday morning at all TAF sites, with some gusts up to 35 kt
possible until 16Z.

Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast at all sites except for
KDVL after 14Z Saturday due to MVFR ceilings. A front slides
through the region Saturday shifting winds out of the north. The
front will move through the region from northwest to southeast,
and most probable timing of the frontal passage has been
included within all TAFs.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast after 00Z
Saturday evening within portions of eastern ND into northwest
MN. This will impact some TAF sites like KDVL before 06Z, and
possibly KGFK (40% chance). A few storms may be strong to severe
bringing erratic gusty winds in excess of 45kt as well as hail
in addition to lightning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...CJ