026
FXUS63 KFGF 111803
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1203 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- No impactful weather is expected through the end of this
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1150 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Clouds continue to encroach into the northern and east-central
Red River Valley into northwest Minnesota. Elsewhere, mostly
clear skies are already pushing temperatures within the central
and southern Red River Valley into the 50s. Areas in southeast
ND and southern Valley may reach into the upper 50s this
afternoon.

Gusty winds up to 35 mph are also developing as forecast within
eastern ND into the Red River Valley.

Clouds look to diminish by tonight, with winds lessening to
10-20 mph, highest in eastern ND near the western edge of the
Red River Valley. Moon rise tonight is 10 PM, with 58%
illumination during its waning gibbous phase. This will allow
for generally favorable viewing conditions for potential aurora
viewing tonight. Temperatures tonight into the 30s and lingering
breeze combine to keep wind chills in the low to mid 20s,
making for brisk conditions for those venturing out tonight.

UPDATE
Issued at 946 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Heavy road frost was observed in portions of the Red River
Valley into Devils Lake basin, but has since melted per area
webcams.

Next batch of stratocumulus is working its way south-southeast
out of Manitoba into the Red River Valley and Minnesota. This
will limit the amount of daytime mixing keeping winds under 20
mph. Elsewhere within eastern ND into west-central MN, ample
sunshine will help daytime mixing tap into winds aloft, bringing
gusts in the 25-35 mph range this afternoon.

Temperatures are still forecast to reach into the 40s and 50s
this afternoon, warmest within the southern Red River Valley
where skies will be relatively clearest amid relatively warmest
temperatures aloft.

UPDATE
Issued at 601 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Sfc trough with a wind shift to the west-northwest was located
from about Roseau to near Crookston to just west of Fargo at
12z moving steadily east. Temps rise a bit behind the front.
Area of stratocu moving quickly southeast associated with 500 mb
wave in NW Ontario and affecting far northern MN. Then clearing
then there is another batch of stratocu upstream in the
Manitoba Interlake region that should affect parts of NW MN this
afternoon. Otherwise clearing will work east into E ND and west
central MN today as high clouds move out.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

...Synopsis...

With the low clouds cleared out....starting off the early
morning with scattered cirrus over the area. There is a short
wave moving quickly southeast and just moving into northwest
Ontario north of the town of Red Lake. This upper level short
wave is quite far north and will move southeast. Precipitation
with this (light snow) will remain well to our northeast, though
as stratocu moves southeast into parts of NW MN today some very
light sprinkles or flurries possible around Lake of the Woods.
But model blends look to keep any measurable precip out of our
area. With the short wave moving southeast and accompanied
surface low in far NW Ontario moving southeast, winds will
switch to the west-northwest early today behind a surface
trough that is moving thru currently. Soundings show no cold
advection behind this trough today and thus low level lapse
rates are pretty weak btwn sfc and 850 mb of 4C/km via BUFKIT
soundings from NAM for GFK from sfc to 900 mb. So would not
anticipate winds to gust higher than winds at 900 mb which run
25-33 kts over the area, strongest DVL region. After some
morning clouds, increasing sun is likely E ND and west central
MN while clouds more prevalent HCO-FSE-PKD and east/north.

Partly cloudy sky tonight into Wednesday with patches of cirrus.

Warmer today than on Monday despite a WNW wind as temps in the
sfc-900 mb warm over Monday. Similar temps on Wednesday as for
today with a diminishing west-northwest wind.

High pressure at the sfc moves overhead Wed night-Thu AM then
turn southerly and increase Friday ahead of 500 mb trough to our
west. Best warm advection Friday as well and should see highs
well into the 50s in nearly all areas, some low 60s possible in
SE ND.

For Saturday rain chances...overall trends suggest a weaker 500
mb trough with main energy well north and a simple cold front
moving thru with a chance of showers along it. This is compared
to a more low pressure moving northeast system which was
prevalent a few days ago for this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1150 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Main impact to aviation through 18Z Wednesday will be low level
wind shear tonight, as well as potential for MVFR ceilings
before sunset.

Low level wind shear will redevelop over the region between
00Z-08Z with winds around 40kt rooted around 2kft. LLWS may
linger longer at sites like KDVL, possibly to 12Z.

An area of stratocumulus is moving through Minnesota this
afternoon, housing MVFR ceilings. This may impact KBJI and KTVF
between 18Z-00Z today. Confidence is higher in MVFR ceilings at
KBJI compared to KTVF.

Otherwise, winds out of the northwest 10-20kt, gusting up to
28kt, before decreasing around 23Z for the evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...CJ