401
FXUS65 KFGZ 071638
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
938 AM MST Fri Nov 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and mild weather will continue through the coming
weekend and much of next week. A more unsettled pattern with
chances for precipitation may return by late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A quiet weather pattern will persist across northern
Arizona for the next several days with perhaps a pattern change
headed our way by late next week.

For today, a mild, zonal flow continues across Arizona with
mostly sunny skies and warm daytime temperatures expected (around
5-10 degrees above early November normals). The weather pattern
over the coming days will feature large-scale high pressure
building over the west coast and much of the interior west.
Despite the high pressure, northerly flow on the eastern periphery
of the ridge will actually result in a slight downward trend in
temperatures for areas along and north of the Mogollon Rim this
weekend.

Early next week as the ridge axis begins to center over the
southwestern U.S., temperatures will climb to about 10 degrees
above average. The dry and mild pattern with mainly light winds looks
to continue through at least Thursday of next week, and then a
potential pattern change could be in store. Ensemble means (both
the GEFS and ENS) continue to support a western U.S. trough
developing and moving into the southwest U.S. sometime next
weekend. The trough progression has slowed slightly in this
morning`s model guidance. The latest cluster analyses shows that
about 45% of the ensemble distribution is supportive of a
significant precipitation event next weekend. This is consistent
with the Climate Prediction Center`s slight risk areas (20-40%)
for heavy precipitation and heavy snow across portions of
northern Arizona next weekend. Confidence is still low to moderate
given the model spread and splitting nature of the Jet Stream
pattern, but it bears watching for the potential of our first
winter weather event.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 07/18Z through Saturday 08/18Z...VFR conditions
are expected. Be on the lookout for localized areas of haze/smoke
resulting from prescribed burns. Winds will be light and variable
through the period, generally 10 kts or less.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 08/18Z through Monday 10/18Z...VFR conditions
are forecast. Winds generally from the north at 5-15 kts on
Saturday afternoon, becoming north through east on Sunday.
Northeast winds will remain elevated south of the Mogollon Rim
Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday...Warm and dry conditions are
forecast. Winds are light and mainly terrain driven at less than 10
mph on Friday. Winds will remain light on Saturday but become
generally northerly. Minimum afternoon RH between 15-25% each day.

Sunday through Tuesday...Warm and dry conditions will continue.
Winds are generally 10 mph or less out of the north through east on
Sunday, becoming mainly terrain driven on Monday and Tuesday.
Minimum RH between 15-25% on Sunday, then 10-20% on Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCT
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff