500
FXUS65 KFGZ 031104
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
404 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A weak weather system will bring a chance of light
rain and snow showers from through this evening, mainly north and
east of the Mogollon Rim. Fair weather returns Thursday with a
warming trend beginning on Friday and lasting into the start of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through this evening...A shortwave currently over
Nevada begins to dive south and east into the Four Corners region
today. While moisture is still fairly limited with this system,
there looks to be enough of an increase to generate some scattered
rain and snow showers. Some light activity has already developed
near the Arizona-Utah border as of early this morning. This
activity should continue to spread south and east through the
morning hours and into the afternoon hours along a weak band of
frontogenetic forcing ahead of the shortwave. Any activity looks
to diminish by this evening as the cold front moves through
northern Arizona. Given the track of this system and limited
moisture, the best chances for seeing any precipitation will
largely be confined to areas along and north of the Mogollon Rim,
with the highest chances near the Four Corners.

Overall, precipitation amounts look to be on the lighter side. The
latest hi-res guidance seems to suggest QPF amounts of around a few
hundredths to a quarter of an inch of liquid. Some locally higher
amounts could be possible in the upslope areas, namely the Kaibab
Plateau, Chuska Mountains, Black Mesa, and the San Fransisco Peaks,
but these will be isolated amounts.

While some warmer air looks to be present aloft, at least initially,
temperatures quickly begin to fall aloft with 700mb temperatures
near -4C to -6C by around 5 AM. Thus, snow levels look to to around
the 5500-6000 feet mark, with potentially some rain/snow mix down
to around 5000 feet. Overall, snowfall amounts will be on the
lighter side generally up to an inch or two possible for most
areas above 6000 feet, and locally 2 to 4 inches in aforementioned
upslope areas.

With the colder air aloft, a couple stronger snow showers will be
possible during the afternoon hours. 00Z HREF guidance seems to
support this with a subtle signal of some brief, isolated moderate
to heavy snowfall rates. Nevertheless, brief and sudden periods of
reduced visibility and slick roads will be possible over the High
Country today.

Tonight and Thursday...Cooler and drier conditions look to set in
behind the shortwave. Overnight lows will likely drop into the the
teens across the higher terrain, to the 30s F across the lower
elevations. Some of the typically cooler locations may see single
digit temperatures overnight tonight. However, some locations mainly
downwind (southwest) of the terrain may remain slightly warmer with
breezy northeasterly winds remaining overnight.

Friday through Tuesday...High pressure then begins to strengthen
over Pacific, pushing the storm track further inland and away from
Arizona. Gradually warmer and dry conditions look to set in through
the end of the week and into the start of next week as a result.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 03/12Z through Thursday 04/12Z...Through
18Z - Scattered -SHRA/-SHSN developing north of a KFLG-KRQE line.
Areas of MVFR and localized IFR in showers. 18Z-03Z - Scattered
mainly -SHSN along and NE of a KGCN-KSEZ-KSOW line, with areas
MVFR and localized IFR. Improving conditions after 03Z with mostly
VFR conditions. Look for west through north-northeast winds 5- 15
kts 18Z-02Z, and light and variable winds otherwise. Breezy northeast
winds 10-20 kts may develop overnight in downslope areas south of
the Mogollon Rim.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 04/12Z through Saturday 06/12Z...VFR conditions
expected. Mostly light winds (10 kts or less) forecast through the
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Colder conditions arrive today
as rain and snow showers develop, mainly along and north of the
Mogollon Rim. Drier air follows this system for late tonight and
Thursday, with cool temperatures continuing. Winds will stay
generally light at 15 mph or less, northwesterly for today, then
northerly to northeasterly on Thursday.

Friday through Sunday...Dry conditions with temperatures gradually
rising into the weekend. Winds will remain light with directions
ranging from northwest through northeast.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff