326
FXUS65 KFGZ 292059
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
159 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Near to above normal temperatures and mostly dry
conditions are forecast through the weekend. Beginning late Sunday
through early Monday, chances for rain and high elevation snow
return. Cool and dry weather will move in on Tuesday before unsettled
weather returns later on Wednesday through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...It will be a week of shortwave troughs of varying
strength diving from north to south across Arizona.

For Sunday and Monday...The first shortwave and associated cold
front will dive from north to south across Arizona from late
Sunday into Monday. This will be a fast moving system but with
enough moisture, upward dynamics and upslope flow for some
precipitation from the Mogollon Rim northward. The best dynamics
and moisture profile will be across far northeast Arizona,
primarily the Four Corners and Chuska Mountains. Elsewhere,
limited moisture and lift will result in only light precipitation
accumulations. During the period with the highest precipitation
chances the snow level will dip to around 6000 feet so
accumulating snow will be possible. The best chances for
accumulating snow will be the Chuska Mountains (2-4 inches) above
6500 feet. We`re looking at 1 inch or less for most other
locations above 6000 feet. In advance of the Sunday trough winds
will become gusty, generally southwest 15 to 25 mph but gusting in
spots to around 40 mph by mid afternoon from the Mogollon Rim
northward. Monday will see winds shift to north to northeast at 5
to 15 mph behind the cold front. High temperatures 5 to 10 cooler
on Sunday with further cooling on Monday.

On Tuesday...Mostly sunny with temperatures near average under
weak high pressure. Winds look to be south to southwest at 5 to
15 mph. Generally a nice day.

From Wednesday onward...Another north to south diving system
stronger along with a bit more complexity. There are two main
solutions. One solution moves the shortwave trough across Arizona
delivering accumulating snow to elevations above 5000-6000 feet
exiting Arizona by early Friday (operational GFS). The other main
solution carries the trough further west and south of Arizona
potentially lingering through late Friday (operational European).
The European solution would carry a higher snow level with
accumulating snow more in the 7500 to 8500 foot range. Both
solutions present a good chance of precipitation. The ensemble
forecasts are pretty much an average of these two solutions. We
will need to get closer to Wednesday to make a better
determination. Otherwise, temperatures falling to at or below
seasonal averages. Winds may turn gusty from the southwest on
Wednesday but then lighter from a more northerly to easterly
direction the remainder of the week depending on the path of the
low.


&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 29/18Z through Sunday 30/18Z...VFR
conditions, no precipitation expected. Winds light and variable
10kts or less today, light and variable or terrain driven
overnight.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 30/18Z through Tuesday 02/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions, but Sunday night into Monday morning may see a few
isolated to scattered rain and high elevation snow showers in
northeastern Arizona which could cause drops to MVFR conditions.
Things dry back out rest of Monday afternoon and Tuesday. Winds
Sunday SW 15-25kts, gusts 30-35kts. Winds NW-N 5-10kts, gusts to
20kts Monday, SW 5-15kts Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Sunday starts out dry before a
weak weather system brings a 10-30% chance of rain and high
elevation snow showers over northeastern Arizona Sunday evening into
Monday morning. Precipitation amounts generally less than 0.10".
Things dry back out again by Monday afternoon. Winds will pick up
out of the SW 15-20 mph, gusting 25 to 35 mph on Sunday before
calming down to NW-N 10-15 mph on Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...It will be dry on Tuesday. Another
weather system approaches on Wednesday bringing a 20-50% of rain and
high elevation snow showers starting Wednesday afternoon and lasting
through Thursday. Winds SW 10-15 mph on Tuesday and Wednesday,
switching to the N-NE 5-10 mph by Thursday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff