704
FXUS65 KFGZ 280429
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
929 PM MST Wed Aug 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Shower and thunderstorm activity will largely be
minimized through the weekend, as drier and warmer weather develops.
There is an exception to this, moisture from Tropical Storm Juliette
may move up the lower Colorado River Valley later tonight and into
southern Utah by early Friday. This could bring an upswing in shower
and thunderstorm activity for western and northwestern Arizona
Thursday through early Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...18Z KFGZ sounding indicates further progression of
the mid-level cap and drying aloft. Radar trends are indicative of
that, as morning echoes have been suppressed, coverage and vertical
growth is now severely limited.

Moving forward, we stay in a fairly capped and drier pattern at
least through the weekend. However, there is a fly in the ointment.
The PW plume from the decaying Tropical Storm Juliette will become
partially entrained over the southwest later tonight through early
Friday. The plume will primarily affect western and northwestern
Arizona and may simply be a cloud band. Yet, the depth of this
moisture plume makes us consider embedded convection and upslope
flow may enhance any light rain elements within the band.

Therefore, we have raised PoPs over our western and northern zones
and blended in some higher QPF. It is largely unknown at this how or
terrain driven deep the moisture plume will be, so this could
change in either direction.

After Friday, as mentioned before, mainly dry and warmer. There is
still enough lower level moisture hanging around for some isolated
activity, but nothing like we saw the last several days. The high
orientation may become more favorable again early next week, stay
tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 28/06Z through Friday 29/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions are forecast. Scattered SHRA/TSRA are possible over
western and northwest Arizona on Thursday as remnant moisture from
Tropical Storm Juliette makes its way across the area. The rest
of Northern Arizona should see isolated SHRA/TSRA from 18Z
through 06Z. Expect brief MVFR conditions in/near stronger TSRA
along with the potential for Gusty/erratic winds. Otherwise,
west winds at 5-15 kts are anticipated.

OUTLOOK...Friday 29/06Z through Sunday 31/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions are expected. The scattered SHRA/TSRA threat will
continue over western and northwest Arizona Thursday night.
Elsewhere Thursday night, only isolated activity. For Friday and
Saturday, look for isolated SHRA/TSRA as drier air moves in.
Brief MVFR conditions in/near stronger TSRA along with the
potential for Gusty/erratic winds. Otherwise, west winds at 5-15
kts during the day becoming light and variable at night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER....FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Temperatures
slowly warm closer to normal. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms for Thursday, only isolated showers and thunderstorms
possible on Friday. Gusty/erratic winds, small hail, frequent
lightning, and heavy rain will be the main hazards. Outside of storm
driven outflows, look for winds W 5-15 mph.

Saturday through Monday...Daytime highs will be near normal through
the weekend. Isolated showers and thunderstorms forecast across the
higher terrain each day. Outside of storm driven outflow winds, look
for winds 5-15 mph varying in direction. Minimum RH values will
range between 15-35%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff