498
FXUS65 KFGZ 011048
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
348 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A few rain and snow showers will end this morning in
eastern Arizona as a weak cold front pushes south across the
region. Otherwise, cool and dry weather continues today and
Tuesday before another weak weather system brings a chance of
light rain and snow showers from Wednesday into early Thursday.
Fair weather returns later Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A trough diving southeastward across Colorado into
New Mexico is clipping northeast Arizona early this morning. At 1
AM, an east-west oriented band of light snow along the cold front
stretched from just east of Flagstaff to the Window Rock area.
This band will continue to sag south with the front, weakening as
it passes south of I-40 by sunrise. Today will otherwise be a cool
and dry day, with northeast breezes mainly 5-15 mph. Some very dry
air is forecast to move in from the northeast later today and
tonight (dewpoints in the single digits). With light winds expected
tonight, this dry air should allow for the coldest overnight low
temperatures of the season for many areas (teens/low 20s above 5000
ft, single digits in the favored cold spots like Bellemont/Window
Rock/Tusayan).

By Tuesday afternoon, temperatures should warm to near normal for
early December with light southwest winds developing ahead of the
next weather system moving in from the north. This system is due
to cross our area on Wednesday into early Thursday. The latest
model forecasts have been trending drier with this system, taking a
path similar to the one passing through this morning. Precipitation
probabilities have trended downward, now around 20% Wednesday and 20-
40% Wednesday night, mostly from Flagstaff eastward. Official
forecasts call for less than 1" of snow above 6500 feet elevation
Wednesday and Wednesday night. The NBM 90th percentile snowfall (10%
chance of seeing these amounts or more) are only in the 1-2" range
above 6500 feet, indicating this system has a pretty low chance of
producing significant snowfall.

Thursday through the weekend - model guidance indicating a dry
northwest flow across our region as high pressure remains off the
west coast and the storm track is north of Arizona. Afternoon high
temperatures near normal, with generally light winds 15 mph or
less.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 01/12Z through Tuesday 02/12Z...VFR conditions.
Winds N-E 5-10 kts, becoming light and VRB after 01Z. Locally gusty
NE winds downwind of terrain features overnight.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 02/12Z through Thursday 04/12Z...VFR conditions.
Brief MVFR possible in -SHRA/-SHSN after 18Z Wednesday. Winds S/SW 5-
15 kts on Tuesday, becoming W/NW on Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday...Cool and dry conditions. Winds
north/northeast 5-15 mph today, becoming south/southwest on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...Chance for rain and high-elevation snow
showers Wednesday and Thursday, with dry conditions returning by
Friday. Winds west/northwest 5-15 mph on Wednesday, shifting
north/northeast on Thursday. Winds becoming west/northwest 5-10 mph
on Friday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff