311
FXUS65 KFGZ 162350
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
450 PM MST Sun Aug 16 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, along
with warming temperatures are expected through Tuesday. Later in
the week, increasing moisture and monsoon activity is forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Troughing remained just off the California coast
with high pressure centered over Texas/Oklahoma Sunday afternoon.
The westward movement of the high center in combination with the
California trough has resulted in deeper moisture being directed
toward the Lower Colorado Valley/southern Nevada and away from
northern Arizona. In addition, the nudging of the high center
toward Arizona continues to produce subsidence aloft resulting in
a capping/stabilizing layer in the mid-levels.

For tonight...A few showers and thunderstorms could linger into
the early evening hours but after that we are anticipating a
nearly complete shutdown in activity as subsidence and further
stabilization occurs as the high pressure center continues to
approach Arizona.

For Monday and Tuesday...The high pressure center gradually
builds from over Texas/Oklahoma to over Arizona. Monsoon moisture
will remain on the low side along with a stabilizing capping layer
aloft. As a result, most of northern Arizona will see only
isolated afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms
through Tuesday. The exception, moisture values will remain just
high enough over the mountains of far eastern Arizona for
scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, primarily the White
Mountains region. Otherwise, look for warmer temperatures and
light winds under the influence of the building high.

From Wednesday onward...Models continue to show the eventual
shift of high pressure aloft to over the Four Corners opening the
door to increasing monsoon moisture and much better chances for
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 17/00Z through Tuesday 18/00Z...Mainly VFR
conditions, with brief MVFR conditions possible near ISOLD
-SHRA/-TSRA over and near higher terrain. Current ISOLD -SHRA/TSRA
activity will continue until about 03Z. Winds will be VRB 5-10 kt
or terrain driven through about 18Z, then SW-W. Shower/storm
coverage will remain limited to the higher terrain tomorrow, with
the best chances around the White Mountains and along portions of
the Rim, with storms beginning around 18-22Z. Gusty and erratic
winds near storms.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 18/00Z through Thursday 20/00Z...VFR conditions,
MVFR possible near heavier storms. Chance of isolated showers/storms
over higher terrain between 18Z-03Z each afternoon. Winds SW-W
5-15 kts daytime, light and variable or terrain driven overnight.
Gusty and erratic winds near storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Turning warmer. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms each day, best coverage over the
eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Outside of storms, winds
are generally southwest through west at 10 mph or less each day.

Wednesday through Friday...Continued warmer temperatures. Scattered
showers over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains on Wednesday, with
coverage increasing and spreading westward on Thursday and Friday.
Outside of storms, winds are generally southwest through west 5-10
mph each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...Schank
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff