Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 190426

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
926 PM MST Sat Aug 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Expect a drying trend into early next week, with only
isolated thunderstorms expected on Sunday and Monday across
northern Arizona. Moisture will increase again starting Tuesday as
high pressure moves to a favorable position over New Mexico,
promising a return to active monsoon conditions.


.UPDATE...Convective showers and thunderstorms were less in
coverage today, but isolated strong to severe storms developed.
All of this activity has diminished except for an area from
Prescott northwest through Williamson Valley that continues to see
shower development after several inches of rain have already
fallen. This activity appears to be decreasing in strength but
additional showers or storms will remain possible across western
Yavapai county tonight. Have updated the evening forecast with
these trends.


.PREV DISCUSSION /248 PM MST/... Scattered showers continue to
develop and move across the area today as limited moisture and
subsidence aloft limits storm development across the bulk of the

On Sunday, the ridge continues to move westward, with its center
over the Sierra Nevadas. This will direct more dry northwesterly
flow across the area limiting storm development further on

Monday will see the center of the ridge shifting back eastward
towards the Arizona and New Mexico border. Low level moisture is
expected to advect back into the region, however there is not
going to be enough moisture to increase storm activity beyond the
higher elevations on Monday, but as additional moisture moves into
the region through the rest of the week, storm activity is
expected to increase Tuesday onward.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...SHRA/TSRA will remain possible
mainly from KPRC west tonight, with otherwise VFR condtions
prevailing through Sunday. Winds to remain light overnight,
becoming N to NW Sunday afternoon around 10 kts or less. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...The area will continue to dry out Sunday and
Monday as northwesterly flow develops. Enough low level moisture
will remain to keep a threat of convection over the higher
terrain, mainly on Monday.

.Tuesday through Thursday...The high pressure system shifts to
our east Tuesday opening up a southerly monsoonal flow and
bringing a return of moisture and isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms to the southern and western portions of the
district. Moisture will continue to increase across the district
Wednesday with an increase of convective activity.






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