275
FXUS65 KFGZ 151130
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
430 AM MST Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system will slide across southern
Arizona today and tomorrow, bringing scattered
showers/thunderstorms. A brief ridge will set-up Friday through
the weekend, resulting in warmer/drier conditions. Unsettled
weather looks to return by next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A few isolated showers remain mostly north of I-40
tonight. Some of these spotty showers are producing gusty outflow
winds, so a few localized areas may see brief elevated winds
overnight. Otherwise, mostly quiet weather will persist through
daybreak.

Today and Thursday...A low pressure system will slide across
southern Arizona today/tomorrow, allowing for increased
precipitation chances across the High Country.
Showers/thunderstorms will have the greatest coverage this
afternoon compared to the isolated coverage seen the last couple
of days. Although confidence is fairly low for widespread wetting
rains, localized areas could see up to 0.25" of rainfall today.
Elsewhere, 0.01-0.10" is likely from today`s showers. As the low
continues to push eastward into New Mexico on Thursday,
precipitation will dwindle and become more focused across the
eastern Mogollon Rim/White Mountains.

Friday through the Weekend...A ridge will build up for a few days
across much of the Southwest, bringing afternoon temperatures 3-10
degrees above normal. Mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures
always seems to come with a price here in northern Arizona, and
that price is breezy winds. We`ll start to see winds become
elevated over the weekend associated with a forming low pressure
system off the California Coast. As of now, expect mostly
southwest winds 10-20 mph gusting 25-30 mph throughout the
afternoon hours.

Next Week...Unsettled weather will return to the forecast as the
aforementioned low pushes inland. Model guidance is still not in
agreement with timing/trajectory of this disturbance, so more
details will follow as we get closer to next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 15/12Z through Thursday 16/12Z...Mainly VFR
for the forecast period. Brief periods of MVFR conditions are
possible today in SHRA/TSRA. Strong and gusty winds near heavier
showers or thunderstorms. Otherwise, light and variable winds
overnight will become southwest to west at 10-20 kts this
afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 16/12Z through Saturday 18/12Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. Drier conditions look to return Thursday and Friday.
Afternoon winds will generally be out of the west at 10-20 kts
each afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Scattered showers/thunderstorms
today will decrease to isolated on Thursday. Southwest to west winds
at 5-15 mph today, becoming west to northwest on Thursday. Minimum
relative humidity between 15-30% each afternoon.

Friday through Sunday...Warmer and drier weather conditions are
expected through the weekend. Southwest to west winds at 15-25
mph gusting near 30 mph each afternoon. Minimum relative
humidity values will range between 10-20%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff