Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 092152

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
252 PM MST Sun Dec 9 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Expect increasing clouds but generally fair weather
through Tuesday. A cold front passing through the region late
Wednesday will bring windy conditions and much cooler temperatures
into Thursday, with just a slight chance of snow showers in
northeast Arizona.


.DISCUSSION...A trough approaching the west coast will spread
increasing mid and high level clouds across our region later
tonight through Tuesday. Late tonight into Monday morning,
another round of low clouds and patchy fog is possible over a
small area along the AZ/NM border including Chinle, Window Rock,
and the Sanders area. Daytime highs will continue to be a bit
warmer than average on Monday, then cool a few degrees Tuesday as
the weakening low moves across the state. We kept a slight chance
for a few sprinkles or flurries for Tuesday afternoon and evening
along the Mogollon Rim into the White Mountains as the low moves
through, but this does not look significant at this time.

Wednesday - a cold front should be along the AZ / UT border by
late afternoon and drop south of the Mogollon Rim late Wednesday
night. Model trends continue to show less moisture in northeast
Arizona so we kept low pops in the forecast only across northern
Navajo and Apache counties. The main story with this front is
likely to be the winds. Low level wind fields with and behind the
front suggest strong and gusty north to northeast winds Wednesday
night and Thursday. Winds should be decreasing by Thursday

Fair weather with seasonal temps forecast for Friday. Another
weak disturbance possible next Saturday, but confidence is low at
this point as model solutions show large spread.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Localized fog/low clouds will
be possible again tonight across far eastern AZ, but are not
expected to affect any of the TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions
and light winds will continue under increasing mid and high level
clouds on Monday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry weather will continue through Monday. Expect
light winds and near average temperatures. A weak area of low
pressure will move through Arizona on Tuesday bringing a slight
chance for light showers.

Wednesday through Friday...A period of windier and cool weather is
expected as a mainly dry cold front moves through the Four Corners
region. Westerly winds will increase Wednesday afternoon and shift
to the north Wednesday night and Thursday behind the front. There`s
a chance for light showers near the Four Corners.





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