Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 221058

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
358 AM MST Thu Aug 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Expect breezy southwest winds today across northern
Arizona. Slight chances for afternoon thunderstorms persist
today as well across southern Apache County. Storm chances push
westward Friday and Saturday to areas along the Mogollon Rim from
Happy Jack through the White Mountains. Dry weather and hot
afternoon temperatures are forecast Sunday and Monday. Slight
chances of afternoons storms return on Tuesday to the Mogollon
Rim, but the heat should continue.


Expect breezy southwest winds today across northern Arizona due to
a cold front and upper level low moving across the northern
Rockies. The southern end of the trough is already spreading some
mid and high level cloud cover along the AZ / UT border this
morning. Prog continue to show a 6-12 hour period of southerly
flow into eastern Arizona tonight and early Friday, with some mid
level moisture and instability increasing across areas east of a 4
Corners to Payson line. Thus slight chances of thunderstorms were
kept across this area. Further west dry weather persists.

On Saturday, leftover moisture and slight chances of afternoon
storms linger along and south of the Mogollon Rim from Happy Jack
through the White Mountains. Otherwise expect fair weather with
westerly afternoon breezes.

Sunday through Wednesday continues to look very warm as high
pressure aloft build in across the desert southwest. Max
temperatures are currently forecast to be 10-15 degrees above
normal for the dates, with values similar to what we saw
yesterday. Dry weather for all is forecast Sunday and Monday.
Progs are hinting a monsoon moisture return as early as Tuesday
and have kept the slight chance of storms going across the high


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions will prevail for
the next 24 hours. Smoke from area wildfires will be observed at
some terminals, but impacts will be minimal. Light and variable
winds becoming southwest 10-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts after 18Z
Thu. Winds weaken after 02Z Fri. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Generally dry, slightly cooler, and breezy
conditions are expected today. An increase in shower and
thunderstorm chances will occur Friday, but will still only be
limited to the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains.

Saturday through Monday...Chances for showers and thunderstorms
again on Saturday along the eastern Mogollon Rim and White
Mountains. Drier air moves into the region Sunday and Monday, with a
return to above normal temperatures.






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