951
FXUS65 KFGZ 302316
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
416 PM MST Mon Jun 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Expect increasing shower and thunderstorm activity in
the Tuesday through Thursday time frame. Some thunderstorms may
produce heavy rain. Daytime temperatures will cool off due to the
increased cloud cover and rain-cooled air. Then, drier and warmer
conditions then redevelop for Friday and into the holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Arizona is sandwiched between a closed low west of
the central California coastline and a ridge along the Arizona/New
Mexico line. This will enhance southerly flow into Arizona over the
next few days, effectively raising our dew points. Also, organized
convection over New Mexico is driving an area of higher dew points
westward this afternoon, this will likely push across central and
southern Arizona tonight.

Moisture will be deep enough by tomorrow for more widespread
activity, especially over the eastern zones. By Wednesday and
Thursday, the upper low will move eastward and our activity will
peak, as cooler air aloft and dynamical forming will act on the
moisture field. Drier and subsident air trails the low Friday and
into the weekend, for a warming and drying trend.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 01/00Z through Wednesday 02/00Z...ISO -SHRA/-
TSRA before 02Z west of a KGCN-KFLG-KPAN line. SCT SHRA/TSRA
redevelops after 18Z, mainly south and west of a KGCN-KINW-KJTC
line. Gusty winds and brief MVFR conditions possible in and around
TS. MVFR VIZ possible in HZ/FU possible near KRQE from a nearby
wildfire. Otherwise, VFR conditions with winds gradually shifting
E/SE 5-15 kts overnight, becoming SE-SW after 18Z.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 02/00Z through Friday 04/00Z...SCT SHRA/TSRA
each afternoon, especially over the higher terrain. Gusty winds and
brief MVFR conditions possible in and around TS. MVFR VIZ possible
in HZ/FU possible near KRQE from a nearby wildfire. VFR conditions
are otherwise expected with daytime winds S/SW 5-15 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Scattered high-based
showers and thunderstorms increasing in coverage on Tuesday. Main
threat from these storms will be strong downburst winds and dry
lightning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms again on Wednesday
but with more low level moisture moving in, these will have a better
chance of producing a wetting rain. S-SW winds 10-20 mph Tuesday, SW-
W winds 10-20 mph on Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...Scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms expected Thursday, becoming isolated on Friday and dry
on Saturday. SW-W winds 5-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph each day.
Gusty, erratic winds possible in and around thunderstorms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Tuesday for AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff