Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 212157

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
257 PM MST Mon Jun 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will cool a few degrees through Tuesday
with elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions due to
breezy winds. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Wednesday
and Thursday along with near normal temperatures. A warming trend
is possible beginning Friday.


.DISCUSSION...A few isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible
over the the White Mountains, especially near Alpine. Any shower
activity should come to an end after sunset with the loss of
daytime heating. Main story is elevated fire weather concerns due
to breezy afternoon winds and very low relative humidity on

A ridge over Arizona/New Mexico slowly drifts eastward tonight
and tomorrow as a trough just off the coast of California begins
to moves closer. Afternoon winds Tuesday remain gusty from the
enhanced pressure gradient as Arizona becomes sandwiched in
between the ridge and trough. This combined with very low relative
humidity will lead to elevated fire weather concerns

Wednesday a shortwave approaches from the southwest, riding along
the ridge. This results in a surge of moisture of mid-level
moisture, resulting in a chance for scattered showers and
thunderstorms for much of northern Arizona. Thursday the potential
for showers continues, but decreasing in coverage to mainly over the
high terrain.

Friday warmer and drier air moves in once again as the heights in
the trough begin to rise, and lifts into the Rockies into the
upcoming weekend. At the same time, a ridge from the south begins to
build into the desert southwest for the weekend. Showers look
possible later into the weekend as a shortwave passes through,
however model guidance differs on exact amounts and timing at this
point, with only a few EPS members showing precipitation into the


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...VFR conditions prevail for the
duration of the TAF period. Areas of smoke from numerous areas
wildfires may reduce visibility at times. Winds begin to die down
after 06Z tonight, becoming light overnight. Southwest/west winds
increase after 18Z Tuesday, around 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Elevated fire weather concerns on Tuesday, with
breezy southwest/west winds and low relative humidity. Chances for
area- wide showers and thunderstorms increase on Wednesday, along
with lighter southwest winds and slightly cooler temperatures.

Thursday through Saturday...Showers linger mainly across the high
terrain on Thursday. Dry and warmer conditions return on Friday and
into the weekend, with a slight chance for showers in eastern Arizona
on Saturday.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ006.



FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

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