Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 190332

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
832 PM MST Sun Aug 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Expect mostly dry and warm weather into next week.
Temperatures will peak on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a possible
moisture increase and slight cooling trend later in the week.


.UPDATE...Not much change in the forecast for the near term with
warm, dry and sunny weather. Adjusted the grids for areas of
patchy smoke from local fires in the vicinity of and to the north
and west of Flagstaff, from west of Prescott north to Ash Fork,
and from the Grand Canyon northeast to Page. Otherwise, the
previous forecast is on track.


.PREV DISCUSSION /254 PM MST/... Rather benign conditions are in
place across the Northland this afternoon, with slightly above
normal temps and some high cirrus cloud cover. Daytime temps may
climb a bit tomorrow, but even hotter conditions are likely for
Tuesday and Wednesday. Some lower-end chances for showers and
thunderstorms may exist primarily for the White Mountains through
mid-week, but most locations will remain dry. Expect some cooling
back to near seasonal norms later in the week, with the potential
for additional monsoonal moisture. This is still far from a
certain return to monsoonal flow, so stay tuned over the next
several days.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Expect mostly VFR conditions for
the next 24 hours, the exception being patchy smoke from area fires
in the vicinity and north of KFLG, northwest of KPRC, and southwest
of KPGA. Light winds overnight becoming SW at 5-15kts aft 18Z
Monday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Expect dry and warming conditions Monday and
Tuesday, with generally light afternoon southwest winds.

.Wednesday through Friday...Above average temperatures, light
winds and continued mainly dry conditons are expected through this
period. Limited moisture returns to the White Mountains by
Wednesday, then possibly pushing a bit farther to the north and west
Thursday and Friday.






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