Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 060513

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1013 PM MST Tue Dec 5 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions and warmer temperatures continue
through Thursday. A trough of low pressure will then bring colder
temperatures and increasing winds across northern Arizona. There
are chances for precipitation in the Four Corners region on


.UPDATE...Tranquil weather conditions are taking place this
evening across northern Arizona. High pressure remains in charge
tonight with light east to south winds, under 10 mph, and clear
skies expected. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to be a
few degrees colder compared to last night`s with drier conditions
in place. Blended tonight`s previous low temperature forecast with
the current CONSMOS and noticed those subtle changes.

Winds switch around to the south-southwest on Wednesday with gusts
near 20 mph as a trough of low pressure impacts northern
California and the Pacific Northwest. High temperatures across
northern Arizona are forecast to be 10-15 degrees above average
for this time of year with zonal, stable flow developing through
Thursday. Southwest winds increase on Thursday, followed by even
stronger northwest winds on Friday as a mainly dry trough passes
towards the north.

The forecast remains on track with no significant changes needed
at this time.


.PREV DISCUSSION /417 PM MST/...High pressure over the region is
allowing for quiet weather conditions to persist. As expected,
temperatures are continuing to moderate: highs for some will peak
tomorrow, while others with strong SW wind will peak Thursday. We
will eventually top off with many experiencing highs 10-15 degrees
above normal for this time of year.

An inbound trough will shift winds Wednesday into Thursday. The
peak in winds will come Friday with this system as it crosses the
area, bringing winds out of the northwest. As of now, the
forecast still sits below advisory criteria, but it will be close.
Accompanying the system will be some low end POPs. Little change
involved with this from previous forecasts where any rain/snow
showers will stick to the far north near the state border and the
Four Corners region. The best precipitation chances will be for
the Chuskas as the oragraphic lift there will help aid in
development. Anywhere south of the South Rim has a less than 10%
chances of receiving measurable precip.

Winds will slack and become more northerly Saturday and Sunday
while temperatures fall below normal Saturday, moderating to near
normal Sunday. The moderating temperatures Sunday are thanks to
returning high pressure. At this time, the weather looks to remain
dry from there on, but some guidance is hinting at another wind
system around the beginning of next week.


.AVIATION...Wednesday 06/06Z through Thursday 07/06Z...Light and
variable winds are expected overnight. After 18Z, winds will
shift out of the south between 5-15 kts. VFR conditions will
persist through the 24 hour period.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 07/06Z through Saturday 09/06Z...Look for SW
winds of 10-20 kts Thursday afternoon, before increasing out of
the N-NW Friday. Gusts on Friday are forecast between 25-40 kts,
with higher gusts in the eastern portion of the state.


.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday through Thursday...Above normal
temperatures persist with min RHs falling into the 20-40s. Winds
become more southerly Wednesday at 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph,
then southwesterly Thursday increasing to 15-25 mph with gusts 25-35

Friday through Sunday...Colder temperatures and stronger winds
gusting 30-45 mph on Friday. Precipitation chances possible Friday
afternoon near the Four Corners. Winds will decrease Saturday and
Sunday. RH values will range from teens to low 40s each afternoon.





FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

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