Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 030401

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
900 PM MST Sat Jul 2 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Shower and thunderstorm chances gradually decrease and
continue to push eastward through the weekend and into next week.
Most activity will be confined to portions of Navajo County and much
of Apache County. Expect increased southwest winds on Sunday, but
generally light most other days. Temperatures near normal.


.DISCUSSION...What you see is what you get, for the next several
days. A low pressure center over the Pacific Northwest will keep
the ridge suppressed to our east, with drier air enveloping much of
western and central Arizona. Moisture will continue to stream over
eastern Arizona, with daily convective activity for Apache County.
This pattern holds through at least the middle of next week, before
the low pressure center ejects eastward and the ridge recenters over
Arizona by later next week.

For tonight, most activity has ended and aside from a few light
showers in Apache County, we are done for the night. A near repeat
for Saturday, although gradients will increase for the western and
central zones, with gusty southwest winds in the afternoon.

Trends are covered well, no short term updates needed tonight.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z TAF package...Mainly VFR conditions are
expected for the 24 hour TAF forecast period. Sct SHRA/TSRA and
ISOLD +TSRA AFT 18Z Sunday for Apache County. Sfc winds light
overnight and SW10-20g20-30kts AFT 17Z-19Z Sunday. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Increased southwest winds are expected Sunday as
Monsoon moisture move eastward. Most areas will be dry, although
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will persist over
Apache County. Slightly cooler temperatures and less wind for
Monday, with similar patterns for showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday through Thursday...Similar conditions are expected during
this period, with moisture possibly pushing a bit farther westward
on Tuesday. Generally light southwest winds through the period and
growing a bit warmer toward the end of the week.






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