181
FXUS65 KFGZ 302323
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
424 PM MST Sat Aug 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Rain chances will be limited mainly to the White
Mountains region this weekend, with otherwise dry and seasonable
weather expected across northern Arizona. Rain and thunderstorm
chances will gradually increase next week with an expected return
of monsoon moisture, especially by the second half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...It`s a mostly sunny to partly cloudy day across
northern Arizona, with dry conditions outside a couple isolated
showers possible near the White Mountains. Temperatures are near
average for late August, and winds are light. This general pattern
is forecast to stick around Sunday and Labor Day, though daytime
temperatures will warm to around 5 degrees above normal as high
pressure becomes centered right over the state. As the high
continues to shift northward later Monday into the middle of next
week, we should see a gradual low level moisture increase from the
south. At this point, most of the moisture looks to stay from the
Mogollon Rim/White Mtns southward through at least Wednesday. With
east to northeasterly steering flow, this pattern is favorable for
storms developing on the higher terrain (Mogollon Rim/White Mtns)
and moving southwestward into Yavapai/Gila counties for each
afternoon/early evening. Depending on the available low level
moisture (if a Gulf of California moisture surge occurs), the
instability could be high enough for some strong to locally severe
storms south of the rim Tue/Wed.

Later next week, models indicate a weak pressure pattern across the
southwest US with light mid level steering flow. This should allow
for moisture positioned south of the state to flow northward through
gulf surges/outflow boundaries. PoPs in the blended NBM guidance
increase Thursday into next weekend, with the higher storm chances
generally along/south of the higher terrain. There is still plenty
of uncertainty regarding moisture availability during this time
though, due partially to the possibility of tropical cyclone
development off the coast of Baja. We`ll track this over the next
several days.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 31/00Z through Monday 01/00Z...Expect VFR
conditions. ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA INVOF the White Mtns AFT 19Z
Sunday. Sfc winds not expected to affect flight operations.

OUTLOOK...Monday 01/00Z through Wednesday 03/00Z...Expect mainly VFR
conditions. SCT-NMRS SHRA/-TSRA from 19Z-02Z each day may produce
brief MVFR. Convective activity primarily along and SW of the White
Mtns and Mogollon Rim. Away from any convective gust activity, sfc
winds are not expected to affect flight operations.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms expected over the White Mountains and eastern Rim
Sunday. Thunderstorm chances start to increase westward along the
Rim on Monday. Temperatures warm to slightly above seasonal
averages. Look for minimum RH values between 10-30% both days.
Expect NE winds 5-15 mph. Winds near showers/storms could be
gusty/erratic.

Tuesday through Thursday...Precipitation chances begin expanding
back westward along the higher terrain as the week progresses,
returning to a mid grade Monsoon by middle to end of the week.
Maximum temperatures will be trending back down towards normal as
the week progresses. Minimum RH values generally between 15-30%.
Outside of storm driven winds, expect variable winds 5-15 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff