882
FXUS65 KFGZ 020512
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1012 PM MST Mon Jun 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Warm temperatures, mostly dry conditions, and mainly
light southwesterly winds are expected this week. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms increase by the middle of the week over
southern Navajo and Apache counties.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A building ridge will nudge itself into our area from
as it remains centered over the southern Plains through much of this
week. This will bring us warming temperatures and southwesterly
breezes, with the heat likely peaking over the region Wednesday
through Friday.

Meanwhile, a weak upper low develops off of the California coast,
dropping southward into Baja California over the next day or two. As
the low pushes south, this will result in moisture being advected
into the region, mainly across the White Mountains and nearby areas.
Some showers and thunderstorms will be possible, mainly Wednesday
and Thursday, across southern Apache and Navajo counties.

By Friday, the low to our south pushes eastward, before moving into
New Mexico/Texas. Weak ridging will arrive for Saturday with dry
conditions returning.

Beyond Saturday...the models have started to diverge from one
another. There is the potential for another trough to push deep into
southern California by early next week (keeps us dry and windy and
slightly cooler) or we could end up under a strengthening ridge
(keeps us warm with southwesterly breezes - also dry). With such a
wide range, our confidence is low any particular solution at this
time and what impacts that may bring for us in the high country.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 02/06Z through Wednesday 03/06Z...VFR
conditions. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA possible south of a KSOW-KSJN
line 18-02Z. Winds S to SW 10-20 kts daytime, light and variable
or terrain driven overnight.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 03/06Z through Friday 05/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. Isolated to scattered -SHRA/-TSRA toward the AZ/NM
border Wednesday afternoon, then south of a KSOW-KSJN line
Thursday afternoon. Daytime winds S to SW at 10-20kts, light and
variable or terrain driven overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Primarily dry, but some
showers or thunderstorms are possible over the White Mountains each
afternoon. Wetting rains are not expected. Winds are SW-W 10-20 mph
each day. Minimum RH 7-15% each day.

Thursday through Saturday...Primarily dry but a few afternoon
showers or thunderstorms are possible over the White Mountains
Thursday afternoon. Winds SW-W 10-20 mph Thursday and Friday but
pick up on Saturday at SW-W 15-30 mph. Minimum RH values 7-15% each
day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff