127
FXUS65 KFGZ 071804
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1104 AM MST Fri Aug 7 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Warm temperatures and isolated to scatted showers and
thunderstorms will continue through the weekend. Monsoonal
moisture then increases each day through much of next week, with
daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Cooler temperatures
will also set in next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today...Lingering cloud cover this morning has
delayed the initial start of convection this morning. However,
another round of storms looks to develop around 1 PM MST over the
higher terrain. Storms will then move southwest through the
afternoon off the higher terrain, as development becomes outflow
driven. Thus, the greatest chances will largely be from Grand
Canyon to Flagstaff to the White Mountains, and areas southwest.
Some additional isolated activity looks possible along Black Mesa.

Instability and shear, while still weak, look to be the greatest
across Yavapai and Gila counties. So a few strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon in these areas.
Otherwise, flash flooding will be the primary hazard.

Saturday and Sunday...Isolated to scattered coverage remains into
the weekend as the high gradually begins to weaken and wobble around
the Four Corners. Moisture remains largely focused across western
and central Arizona, thus the greatest coverage over the weekend
will largely be from the Mogollon Rim, south and west. A strong to
severe storm can not be totally ruled out, but flash flooding will
remain the primary hazard into the weekend.

Monday through Thursday...The high begins to weaken into the start
of next week, and moves into the Four Corners region. Sub-tropical
moisture increases further across northern Arizona, resulting in near
daily chances for scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Given the increased moisture, flash flooding will be primary hazard
for the coming week. Daily coverage however remains uncertain, and
will largely be determined by any lingering debris clouds.
Otherwise, cooler temperatures and light winds prevail into next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 07/18Z through Saturday 08/18Z...VFR conditions
with MVFR possible near heaviest showers/storms. Isolated to
scattered showers/storms develop around 20Z and spread south and
westward through 03Z. Winds variable 5-15kts daytime, light and
variable or terrain driven overnight. Gusty and erratic winds near
showers/storms.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 08/18Z through Monday 10/18Z...VFR conditions
with MVFR possible near heaviest showers/storms. Scattered showers
develop over higher terrain around 18Z each day, spreading south
and west through 03Z. Winds variable 5-15kts daytime, light and
variable or terrain driven overnight. Gusty and erratic winds near
shower/storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Temperatures still 5-10
degrees above average. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop
over the higher terrain each day around midday and move to the south
and west during the afternoon and evening hours before dissipating
early nighttime hours. Gusty and erratic winds possible ahead of and
near storms. Outside of storms, expect variable winds around 5-15
mph. Minimum RH values 5-15% NE Arizona deserts to 20-35% elsewhere.

Monday through Wednesday...Temperatures cooling back down to near
seasonal averages. Uptick in monsoon for the first half of the week
with scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms expected area wide
each day. Gusty and erratic winds near and ahead of storms. Outside
of storms, expect variable winds around 5-15 mph. Minimum RH values
15-25% NE Arizona deserts to 30-50% in the higher terrain.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Saturday for
AZZ005-006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff