440
FXUS65 KFGZ 160936
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
236 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Showers remain mostly south of I-40 currently, and
will continue through the morning/afternoon hours today. Cooler
temperatures and breezy winds will be on tap for this afternoon,
and much of the upcoming work-week. Chances for additional rain
and snow showers forecast by mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A handful of locations have already seen a nice rain
from yesterday evening, but if you didn`t see precipitation yet,
there is still a chance! The main frontal band of showers looks
to move west to east this morning and afternoon, and then this is
when we could see snow levels drop closer to 7500-8000`. Our
forecast still has only the highest mountain tops receiving
measurable snowfall, and most of that falling between 5 AM MST and
5 PM MST today. Any snowflakes that mix down closer to 7000-7500`
likely won`t stick with the above freezing surface temperatures.

Monday will be mostly quiet weather-wise as the current storm
system moves to the northeast, but another low pressure system
is forecast to quickly follow. Daytime highs look to remain below
normal for much of our CWA on Monday, and remain 5-15 degrees
below normal through at least the end of the week. This more
noticeable dip in afternoon temperatures will be thanks to the
stronger low pressure system moving south along the California
Coast. Pre-frontal precipitation looks to fall Tuesday morning
through afternoon, but we cannot rule out isolated activity
developing Monday evening and overnight. If we do see earlier
precipitation, rainfall will once again be the dominate
precipitation type due to snow levels landing generally above
8000` through 5 AM MST Tuesday. Beyond that, snow levels look to
gradually drop west to east throughout the day, potentially
reaching down to 6000-6500`. The main frontal passage from this
system will move through on Wednesday, and this is when we`ll
likely see the majority of any accumulating snow down to 6000`.
Now before you get too excited...this system still has the
potential to pull more northward and leave us with warmer
conditions. Although model guidance seems to have good agreement
that we`ll stay in a cold and wet pattern through at least the
middle of the week, we are still a few days out. Continue to check
back for more details on this mid- week storm.

Beyond Wednesday...Confidence is low on what will transpire after
this secondary storm system roles through the state. Overall,
we`ll likely stay in an unsettled pattern, but there isn`t much to
share beyond that.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 16/06Z through Monday 17/06Z...Areas -SHRA/SHRA
spreading slowly east and northeast through the period. Some -SHRASN
may develop late Sunday afternoon above 7000 feet. Locations along
the southern edge of the Mogollon Rim, as well as within the heavier
showers, will produce periods of MVFR and IFR. Expect sfc winds to
be mainly SSE-SSW10-20kts overnight and then SW15-25g30kts Sunday.
Winds decrease quickly Sunday evening.

OUTLOOK...Monday 17/06Z through Wednesday 19/06Z...Areas -SHRA/SHRA
becoming ISOLD Sunday night and Monday, then increasing Monday night
into Tuesday. MVFR/IFR possible with any shower activity, especially
Monday night and Tuesday as higher elevation -SHSN becomes possible.
Sfc winds S-SW5-15kts, gusts to 20kts by Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday...Widespread rain showers move west
to east through the day today, with potentially a thunderstorms and
rain/snow mix in the higher elevations. Coverage becomes isolated on
Monday, mainly across the higher terrain. Wind southwest 10-20 mph
with gusts to 25-35 mph, decreasing to 5-15 mph on Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Scattered to widespread rain/snow showers
through Wednesday, becoming more isolated on Thursday. Winds south
10-20 mph on Tuesday, subsiding to 5-10 mph on Wednesday. Winds then
shift westerly on Thursday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff