Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
322 FXUS64 KFWD 031022 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 522 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .KEY MESSAGES... - Highs will return to the 90s today through Friday with little to no chance for rain. - The arrival of a cold front over the upcoming weekend will result in widespread rain chances along with cooler temperatures which will persist into next week. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: The overnight isolated shower and thunderstorm activity along the ill-defined surface cold front in East Texas is beginning to move out of the area early this morning, with rain-free conditions expected by ~8 AM or so. A warmer but less humid afternoon is still in store with highs in the upper 80s and 90s. -Stalley Previous Discussion: /Through Tonight/ There is a small chance for isolated rain showers in eastern portions of Central Texas early this morning near and behind a weak frontal zone that continues to drift through the forecast area. Measurable rainfall is rather unlikely, and we`ll indicate PoPs of just 10-20% through sunrise near and east of I-45 with this potential ending by mid-morning. A warm and rain-free afternoon will follow with high temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s. The steady arrival of lower dewpoints within northerly surface flow will result in a fairly pleasant afternoon otherwise, with noticeably lower humidity than the past few days. Light southerly flow will resume this evening, setting the stage for a couple of warmer days with slightly higher humidity to end the week. -Stalley && .LONG TERM... /Issued 126 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025/ /Thursday Onward/ A pair of hot and mostly dry days will end the workweek, as deep upper troughing persists over the eastern CONUS. This pattern will send a weak surface cold front/trough axis towards the forecast area Thursday afternoon which will cause winds to veer westerly. Resultant compressional warming should be capable of sending highs into the mid/upper 90s, with even some triple digit readings across the western half of the area. Fortunately, despite the return to southerly surface winds, moisture return will be slow and dewpoints in the upper 50s and 60s will prevent heat index values from approaching Heat Advisory criteria. A secondary stronger cold front will advance towards the area on Friday with similar timing, with a veering to westerly low-level flow in the afternoon once again. However, a steadily thickening cirrus canopy arriving with a fetch of Pacific moisture should inhibit afternoon heating to an extent, although highs will likely still be able to reach the mid 90s for many locations. The arrival of the aforementioned frontal zone and increasing moisture content will culminate in increasing rain chances over the weekend. While some isolated showers and thunderstorms could exist along the surface boundary as it pushes in North Texas late Friday and Saturday, rain chances will increase further as one or more disturbances within a belt of mid-level westerlies results in isentropic ascent atop the frontal surface. Showers and thunderstorms with scattered coverage should exist on Saturday before becoming increasingly widespread on Sunday. The presence of widespread clouds and precipitation along with cooler post- frontal air will shave as much as 15-20 degrees off of high temperatures for Sunday afternoon with highs struggling to even reach 80 degrees in some areas. An active pattern looks to continue into the first half of next week with near/below normal temperatures and additional rain chances of 20-40%. -Stalley && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12z TAFs/ VFR will prevail through the period. Light north winds at 5-8 kts will transition back to south/southwest late this evening where they will remain into Thursday. Skies will be mostly clear outside of scant cumulus at 5-7 kft and FEW/SCT cirrus. -Stalley && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 92 69 97 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 5 Waco 92 66 97 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 5 Paris 88 66 93 71 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 91 66 97 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 5 McKinney 90 67 96 73 95 / 0 0 0 0 5 Dallas 91 70 98 76 97 / 0 0 0 0 5 Terrell 89 67 94 73 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 91 68 96 74 96 / 10 0 0 0 0 Temple 93 65 98 72 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 91 66 100 73 98 / 0 5 0 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$