539
FXUS64 KFWD 230626
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1226 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread travel impacts due to wintry precipitation are
  expected to begin Friday evening across North Texas and Saturday
  across Central Texas. Precipitation will end Sunday, but travel
  impacts will likely linger into at least Monday.

- Strong winds and ice on tree limbs and power lines could cause
  sporadic power outages Saturday and Sunday.

- Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 5 to 10 below zero could
  result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken. Extreme cold
  will become life threatening to people and animals, especially
  Saturday and Sunday nights.

- Very cold temperatures will increase the risk of broken pipes
  and water damage due to a prolonged period of sub-freezing
  temperatures late Friday through Tuesday.

- Final preparations for the impending winter weather need to be
  completed now!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 236 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Large scale troughing continues to dominate much of the CONUS as
a potent mid-level system situates near Baja California. This is
the system responsible for the late week/weekend event. For the
rest of the day, tranquil weather will persist through tonight as
a weak stationary boundary remains just south of our area in
Central Texas. Widespread clouds will likely persist over the
eastern half of the region which will keep daytime highs likely
in the 50s to lower 60s. For tonight, clouds will again spread
across the entire region keeping lows generally in the 40s to
lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Mid Next Week)
Issued at 236 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Winter Weather Event:

The overall forecast trends continue to be in good shape as we
await the arrival of the very cold arctic airmass in addition to
the widespread mixed wintry precipitation across the region.

Similar to this morning, model guidance continues to show a
slower cool down, especially across the southern half of our
region. As a result, the arrival of the wintry precipitation will
be delayed to Friday evening/night for North Texas and Saturday
morning-early afternoon for Central Texas. In addition to the
later transition, we continue to adjust the precipitation types
with an increasing concern of receiving more freezing rain than
sleet (as previously anticipated). In terms of ice accumulations,
we didn`t deviate much from the last official forecast with
generally one quarter to up to one half of an inch possible across
the region. Areas along the Red River may see less ice and more
sleet/snow given the colder temperature profiles. Additionally,
some locations across the far southern zones may also see less
accumulations due to later transition to freezing rain. Be aware
that these totals will continue to change as new data arrives.

The important message here is that there`s a potential for
significant ice accumulations, and when we add the gusty
northerly winds, it will result in tree damage and therefore power
outages. Additionally, widespread impacts to road conditions are
also anticipated. With all that in mind, a Winter Storm Warning
has been issued for all North and Central Texas and preparations
should be finalized by late tonight or early tomorrow.

Most of the area will see the full transition to freezing rain,
sleet, and/or snow by Saturday afternoon/evening given the
continuous cold air advection. We should finally see an end of the
precipitation Sunday afternoon as the upper level wave departs to
our east. Unfortunately, the impacts won`t stop there. We`re
still expecting very cold temperatures each night from Saturday
through Monday, especially Sunday night with widespread lows in
the single digits. At this time, models are suggesting some
locations could see a few hours near or above freezing on Monday,
but temperatures will drop again below freezing Monday
evening/night.

Beyond the event:

Temperatures should steadily warm above freezing Tuesday with
highs in the 40s Tuesday through Thursday. No precipitation is
expected beyond this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Aviation impacts due to weather will continue to increase through
the next 30 hours across North and Central Texas. The immediate
impact will be the continued decrease in cloud heights across the
region. For Waco, IFR is ongoing  with cloud heights around 500
feet. Over the next few hours, all North Texas TAF sites will see
a decrease in cloud heights with widespread IFR expected by 08z.
IFR to LIFR conditions are then expected through the rest of this
TAF cycle as liquid precipitation transitions to a mix of frozen
precipitation Saturday.

As continued moistening occurs today, drizzle is expected to
develop closer to 12z across North Texas. For Central Texas, fog
is expected to impact Waco generally between 10-14z. Fog/drizzle
will then transition to rain that will persist through the rest of
the day across the region. A cold front is expected to arrive
across North Texas late in the morning. Given winds are already
expected to be out of the northeast when this occurs, a
significant wind shift is not expected. What will occur, however,
will be the arrival of much colder air that will reach the
freezing mark closer to 06z.

Freezing rain is now in the KDFW TAF starting at 06z Saturday as
temperatures hover around 30-32 degrees through the night. This
addition will be included in the rest of the North Texas TAFs for
the 12z package. Closer to 12z Saturday, a transition from
freezing rain to sleet is expected. This timing will continue to
be analyzed through the next few hours and will also be added to
the 12z TAFs. The sleet may be heavy at times, leading to
accumulations on all surfaces through the day on Saturday.

For Waco, the timing of frozen precipitation will be later on
Saturday as the cold air will be slower to arrive. By Saturday
afternoon, sleet pellets will mix with freezing rain with IFR
conditions in place.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    49  26  27  14 /  90 100 100 100
Waco                56  32  32  16 /  80  90 100 100
Paris               45  22  23  14 /  80 100 100 100
Denton              47  24  25   9 / 100 100 100 100
McKinney            47  25  26  13 /  90 100 100 100
Dallas              51  27  28  14 /  90 100 100 100
Terrell             49  27  27  15 /  90 100 100 100
Corsicana           55  30  31  20 /  80  90 100 100
Temple              60  32  34  17 /  70 100 100 100
Mineral Wells       50  23  24  10 / 100 100 100 100

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Sunday
for TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>134-141.

Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Saturday to noon CST Monday for
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Saturday to noon CST Sunday for
TXZ135-142>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schroeder
LONG TERM....Sanchez
AVIATION...Hernandez