Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
007 FXUS64 KFWD 281034 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 434 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Today will be the last day of well above-average and near- record warm temperatures. - A strong cold front will move across the region this afternoon and evening, bringing gusty north winds up to 50 mph through tonight. A Wind Advisory is in effect for all of North and Central Texas from Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning. - Much colder temperatures are expected Sunday night through Tuesday, with gusty winds making it feel even colder. Temperatures will warm back to near and above normal from mid to late week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 101 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 It`s another unusually warm morning across North and Central Texas with current temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s. Satellite imagery shows low clouds racing northward across Central Texas into North Texas this hour, and low clouds are expected to blanket much of the area this morning before breaking up by afternoon. This will lead to another day of near-record warm temperatures with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. - Dec 28 Daily Record Temperatures - DFW Record High: 83 (set in 2016) Forecast High: 81 WACO Record High: 85 (set in 2021) Forecast High: 81 This will be our last day of this lengthy stretch of late December warmth, however, as a strong cold front races south across the Plains and crosses the Red River by early afternoon. Latest HRRR shows the front reaching our northwest counties by 18-19Z, the I-20/I-30 corridor and the Metroplex by 20-21Z, Waco by 22-23Z, and exiting our cwa by 01-02Z. Guidance continues to show a very sharp pressure gradient behind the front with rapid pressure rises of 2-4mb per hour. This should lead to a roughly 6-9 hour period of very strong north winds with gusts peaking in the 40-50 mph range. Accordingly have gone ahead and issued a Wind Advisory for all of North and Central Texas for Sunday afternoon through Monday morning, with the advisory split into north and south segments due to frontal timing. Winds are expected to decrease after midnight Sunday night as the pressure gradient weakens. In addition to the winds, models unanimously show a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two developing along the front across East Texas and eastern Central Texas late this afternoon into early evening. Finally, temperatures will take quite a tumble from the 70s/80s on Sunday afternoon down into the upper 20s/30s by Monday morning - a drop of 40 to 50 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 101 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 Monday will be a much colder day than we have seen recently with highs only expected to reach the 40s. Continued gusty north winds will make it feel even colder with wind chills in the 20s/30s. Tuesday morning will be the coldest of the week as an area of surface high pressure settles on top of North Texas, with lows dropping into the mid 20s north to mid 30s south. However, a warming trend is expected to begin Tuesday and continue through the rest of the week as an upper level ridge builds from Texas into the Rockies and flow aloft becomes more zonal. Highs will warm from the 50s on Tuesday into the 60s by Wednesday/Thursday and 60s/70s by late week. Despite the more active pattern aloft, precipitation continues to appear unlikely as we move through the first full week of 2026. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 423 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 MVFR cigs have scattered out much earlier than expected across D10, although areas of MVFR cigs still exist southwest and northeast of the Metroplex. Have adjusted TAFs to show prevailing VFR conditions with tempo MVFR cigs through 16Z. For ACT, will keep prevailing MVFR cigs as another batch of MVFR cigs is poised to move in. Otherwise, few changes were made to TAFs with VFR conditions expected from this afternoon through the remainder of the TAF period. Fropa still anticipated 20-21Z at D10 airports and 22-23Z at ACT, with sustained north winds 20-30kts and gusts 30-40 kts through the evening hours before decreasing overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 35 46 31 / 10 0 0 0 Waco 81 39 47 33 / 10 20 0 0 Paris 79 32 43 25 / 20 10 0 0 Denton 79 30 46 25 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 80 32 46 26 / 10 0 0 0 Dallas 82 37 47 31 / 10 0 0 0 Terrell 80 34 46 28 / 20 10 0 0 Corsicana 81 39 49 32 / 20 20 0 0 Temple 80 37 48 33 / 0 10 0 0 Mineral Wells 81 31 48 26 / 0 0 10 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from noon today to 3 AM CST Monday for TXZ091>095- 100>107-115>120-129. Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST Monday for TXZ121>123-130>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION...Shamburger