Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
497 FXUS64 KFWD 011041 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 541 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact North and Central Texas today and Tuesday with locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding possible. - High temperatures will return to the mid 80s to mid 90s the rest of the week, with chances for showers and thunderstorms resuming Friday through Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 136 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025/ /Through Tonight/ Showers and isolated storms remain possible through the short term forecast period to end the holiday weekend, with localized heavy rain and flooding possible. Broad upper troughing will continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms during the next 24 hours. Current activity as of 1 AM is on a downward trend, but additional new development is expected to occur particularly across parts of North and East Texas later this morning within the PW maximum. The slow-moving nature of convection along with efficient rainfall processes will continue to support a risk for flooding, although this potential should be quite a bit more isolated in comparison to the previous couple of days. In addition to convective chances this morning, areas of radiation fog may develop in the presence of nearly calm winds and clearing skies, and this will be most likely across parts of Central Texas. These conditions should remain too isolated for a Dense Fog Advisory product, but trends will be monitored over the next several hours. Less prevalent cloud cover this afternoon will allow highs to climb into the mid 80s to lower 90s for most of the forecast area. Most convective activity is expected to wane this evening with loss of heating and the departure of the strongest mid-level height falls, but cannot completely rule out lingering showers into the overnight period in parts of North Texas. -Stalley && .LONG TERM... /Issued 136 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025/ /Tuesday Onward/ Increasingly amplified mid-level flow will take shape across the Central CONUS heading into Tuesday, and this will send a weak front southward into the forecast area during the day. While most of the dynamic lift will remain displaced north and east of the CWA, at least a few isolated showers or storms could occur in the vicinity of this boundary itself as ample moisture will still be in place preceding its arrival. PoPs will only be about 10-20%, and mainly confined to areas near/east of I-35 during the daytime Tuesday. Little thermal contrast will exist with this boundary, and highs should still be able to climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s despite its presence. However, lower humidity with dewpoints in the upper 50s and 60s should result in a more pleasant midweek period despite temperatures returning to near normal. Wednesday and Thursday are expected to remain rain-free as we become positioned between systems with modest mid-level height rises overhead. Additional cold fronts are expected to progress southward through the Central Plains during the second half of the workweek, as a series of potent vort maxes pivot through an anomalously deep east CONUS longwave trough. Preceding these boundaries could be one or two rather hot afternoons on either Thursday or Friday as compressional warming due to veering westerly winds may allow highs to climb into the upper 90s. A frontal passage through the CWA is becoming increasingly likely heading towards next weekend which would be accompanied by additional chances for showers and thunderstorms Friday through Sunday. -Stalley && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12z TAFs/ VFR conditions currently prevail at most TAF sites, but periodic MVFR/IFR cigs and/or visibilities are still expected to impact the airports through about 14z. Additional scattered showers have begun developing near and northeast of D10 as of 1030z, and this trend should continue through the morning. Deeper convection capable of occasional TSRA may begin developing around/after 15z which could continue into the afternoon before eventually moving off to the east. Light and variable winds should give way to easterly winds later today before returning to southeasterly this evening. A weak frontal boundary may result in a north wind shift towards the end of the valid TAF period Tuesday morning, although this feature`s timing remains uncertain, and it may end up taking longer to arrive. -Stalley && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 88 72 89 69 90 / 40 5 20 0 0 Waco 88 70 93 69 92 / 30 5 5 0 0 Paris 85 68 85 65 88 / 30 10 20 5 0 Denton 88 69 88 65 89 / 30 5 20 0 0 McKinney 85 69 88 65 89 / 50 5 20 0 0 Dallas 87 73 90 69 91 / 40 5 20 0 0 Terrell 87 69 89 66 89 / 40 5 20 0 0 Corsicana 87 71 91 69 92 / 40 5 10 0 0 Temple 88 71 93 68 94 / 30 5 5 0 0 Mineral Wells 89 69 90 65 90 / 20 5 20 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$