Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
846 FXUS64 KFWD 012352 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 552 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thick high clouds will persist this evening, with a chance for some sprinkles. Otherwise, above normal temperatures will continue into early next week. - Low rain chances return to the region Wednesday and Thursday of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1130 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026 Late morning satellite imagery, particularly the cirrus-near IR band, shows increasing thick cloud cover spreading in from the west. This is in response to mid level ridging flattening out a bit and a weak shortwave spreading out of the Desert Southwest helping to maintain a tap into eastern Pacific moisture. We`ll likely see a veil of cirrus maintained throughout the day resulting in filtered sunlight but high temperatures should still manage to climb into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Southerly flow will persist tonight with continued cloud cover resulting in lows only dropping into the mid and upper 50s. Another upstream shortwave will dig south into the Plains on Friday and an area of low pressure will develop across the Panhandle before moving east along the Red River. Stronger forcing for ascent will spread through the Plains with this disturbance, but moisture will generally be confined to the mid and upper parts of the atmosphere. So, we may see fairly decent radar returns through the day Friday, but most of this will be virga or sprinkles. Once this disturbance moves east, a cold front will slide southward into the region. This should result in a decent gradient of high temperatures across North Texas with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s south of I-20 and readings in the upper 60s and low 70s closer to the Red River. No significant precipitation is expected across the region. Dunn && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1130 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026 Cooler air will spread south late Friday night into Saturday behind the front with overnight lows in the 40s and highs in the 60s on Saturday. Mid level ridging will become established over the latter part of the weekend into early next week which will again support a warmup and temperatures well above normal. Highs will top out in the mid 70s to lower 80s Monday through Wednesday with some potential for fire weather concerns on Tuesday. Tuesday should be the warmest day with highs in the lower 80s and RH values between 20-25%, particularly west of I-35. Wind speeds 10 kt or less should inhibit a more significant fire threat, but we`ll continue to monitor this potential. While ridging does return, the upper pattern will be a little more progressive through next week with the jet stream dipping a bit farther south over the western CONUS by Tuesday. This will eventually help send a potent shortwave eastward into the Plains by late Wednesday and with several days of southerly winds ahead of this, we`ll see dewpoints steadily creep upward. Increased moisture and strong forcing for ascent will likely lead to our highest rain chances in a while across North and Central Texas starting late Wednesday through Thursday. We`ll also monitor this potential over the coming days. Dunn && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 532 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026 An expansive shield of mid and upper level cloudiness will continue to stream eastward across North Texas - and all TAF sites - through most of the overnight hours. The fast moving mid level trough responsible for this cloudcover will also spawn some patchy light precipitation across the region through at least 08z. However, a deep dry layer in the lowest 10-15kft of the atmosphere should absorb virtually all of this activity before it reaches the surface. The high cloudiness should start to diminish in coverage and thickness in the 06-10z timeframe, as the upper level trough exits the region. Scattered cirrus after daybreak should give way to clear skies by midday Friday. South winds at speeds of 6-10 knots will prevail at all D10 TAF sites and at Waco through the bulk of the overnight period. A surface low will move eastward from the Panhandle across the Red River region between 10z and 18z. As this low tracks eastward, winds at all terminals will veer from a southwest to eventually a west direction. Speeds concurrently will pick up to a range from 10-15 knots by 18z. A further wind shift to the northwest will occur during the late afternoon and early evening hours on Friday, with diminishing speeds of around 5-8 knots expected after sunset. Bradshaw && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 55 74 46 66 / 10 0 0 0 Waco 58 80 49 68 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 52 72 46 63 / 10 0 0 0 Denton 49 72 41 65 / 10 0 0 0 McKinney 52 72 44 64 / 10 0 0 0 Dallas 57 74 48 67 / 10 0 0 0 Terrell 54 75 45 66 / 10 0 0 0 Corsicana 58 80 49 69 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 55 82 48 71 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 52 77 41 69 / 10 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dunn LONG TERM....Dunn AVIATION...Bradshaw