Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
538 FXUS64 KFWD 111115 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 515 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above-normal temperatures return today and Friday. - A strong cold front will bring colder temperatures on Sunday with highs in the upper 40s and 50s. - Rain chances will increase slightly through the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1113 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Surface high pressure is currently centered right over North Texas with light winds and mostly clear skies allowing temperatures to fall into the low 30s in some spots. Clear calm nights can often result in significant temperature variances across small distances and we`re seeing that tonight with readings varying as much as 11 degrees over a few miles. Some thin high cloud cover is streaming through our Red River counties and this will continue into the morning hours. Thursday should feature mostly sunny skies beneath a dry northwest flow aloft. A surface low deepening in the Central Plains will allow winds to become southerly later this morning and increase to 10-15 mph this afternoon. This system will move east tonight and another weak cold front will slide southward through the area on Friday. Little temperature change is expected behind this front, but winds will become northerly through the day. Dunn && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1113 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 A strong Great Lakes trough will progress eastward on Saturday and send a 1044 mb surface high into the mid-Mississippi Valley by Saturday evening. Leading this surge of high pressure will be a strong cold front that will move through North Texas Saturday evening. Brisk northeast winds and much cooler air will spill southward Saturday night. This front should also come through generally dry, but there will be more cloud cover associated with the cold air behind the front. These clouds will likely linger into early Sunday accompanied by some very light rain chances across our eastern counties late Saturday night into the morning hours on Sunday. Sunday will be cold with most areas struggling to get out of the 40s and wind chills remaining in the 30s for much of the day. We`ll be watching another upstream disturbance spread in from the west on Tuesday which will likely result in some increasing rain chances particularly east of I-35 through the mid week period. Dunn && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 513 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Near calm winds will prevail for another few hours under a canopy of thin high clouds. South winds will increase to around 10 kt later this morning and continue into tonight. Another weak front will approach the region tomorrow around midday and we`ll have winds coming back around to the north around 17Z Friday. VFR will prevail through the period with no significant aviation concerns expected. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 65 44 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 65 44 71 45 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 60 42 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 66 40 66 36 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 64 42 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 65 46 68 42 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 64 42 68 41 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 66 46 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 67 43 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 70 42 71 37 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$