Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
538 FXUS64 KFWD 281715 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1115 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A strong cold front will move through North Texas today with north winds increasing to 20 to 30 mph and occasional wind gusts to 50 mph. Sharply colder air will spill south overnight. Wind chills will be in the teens and 20s late tonight and early Monday. - Below normal temperatures will continue through Tuesday with a warmup expected through the latter part of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1115 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 A powerful upper trough is moving through the Central Plains at this hour and will send a strong cold front through the region this afternoon. Right now the front is moving through Central Oklahoma and will enter our northwest counties over the next few hours. Winds have already begun to veer around to the west- southwest and will eventually come around to the northwest this afternoon. Strong pressure rises behind the front will support gusty winds through the late evening hours, some of which may top 50 mph at times. The current wind advisory addresses this and no changes are needed at this time. There is still a low chance for showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder across our southeast counties late this afternoon as the front progresses southward, but moisture is confined to a narrow axis across our far eastern counties and widespread precipitation is not expected. The other concern this afternoon and evening will be the potential for elevated fire activity given the strong winds and lowering humidity behind the front. This concern will be greatest across our northwest counties where winds will frequently gust to 40+ mph and RH drops to 25 to 35% into the evening hours. While low level moisture is marginal to support fire activity, the strong winds and recent dry spell may lead to an uptick in fire starts through late evening. Temperatures will plunge into the mid/upper 20s north of I-20 tonight and into the 30s elsewhere which will be in sharp contrast to the last week. Wind chills Monday morning will be in the teens and low 20s. Highs on Monday will top out in the low to mid 40s but north winds will make it feel much colder. Dunn && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1115 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 Northwest flow aloft and surface high pressure will help keep things quiet for much of the week with a gradual warmup expected through Friday where temperatures will again be back in the 70s and lower 80s. A couple of fast moving shortwaves will race through the Plains Friday and over the weekend, but as of now, should have little impact on our weather other than to knock a few degrees off of afternoon high temperatures. Any precipitation looks like it will remain displaced to our east into early next week. Dunn && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1115 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 MVFR cigs are primarily confined to the east of the major airports at this time although some BKN025 is still noted at DAL on the latest ob. These should scatter out shortly with VFR prevailing through the remainder of the period. The main concern for today will be a strong cold front that is expected to move through this afternoon. Winds are becoming more westerly ahead of the front at this time and will increase sharply from the north-northwest after FROPA around 21Z. Wind gusts to 40+ kt are expected late this afternoon into the evening hours and will only slowly diminish through the nighttime hours. North winds 15-20 kt will continue on Monday beneath some passing mid and high cloud. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 35 46 31 / 10 0 0 0 Waco 81 39 47 33 / 10 20 0 0 Paris 79 32 43 25 / 20 10 0 0 Denton 79 30 46 25 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 80 32 46 26 / 10 0 0 0 Dallas 82 37 47 31 / 10 0 0 0 Terrell 80 34 46 28 / 20 10 0 0 Corsicana 81 39 49 32 / 20 20 0 0 Temple 80 37 48 33 / 0 10 0 0 Mineral Wells 81 31 48 26 / 0 0 10 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 3 AM CST Monday for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>120-129. Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST Monday for TXZ121>123-130>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$