Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
333 FXUS64 KFWD 020729 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 129 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures will continue into early next week. - Low rain chances return to the region Wednesday and Thursday of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1225 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026 Radar mosaics this evening are already showing evidence of virga and light returns associated with a mid-level disturbance now traversing the Southern Plains. The corresponding surface low is beginning to translate eastward along or just north of the Red River. Given the pronounced dry layer below 700 mb, any precipitation will struggle to reach the surface, and only a few locations may see brief sprinkles overnight. This system will continue moving east of the region early Friday, allowing skies to gradually clear from west to east. With lighter winds and less cloud cover expected through the remainder of the pre-dawn hours, several locations may experience a brief window for more efficient (though still modest) radiational cooling. As a result, overnight low temperatures were nudged downward a few degrees, particularly across our northern and western zones where clearing has already occurred. Most areas should still remain well above early January normals, with lows settling in the low to mid 50s by sunrise. A cold front will follow closely behind the departing wave, entering North Texas by mid morning and gradually pushing southward into Central Texas this evening. The airmass in its wake is not particularly cold, but modest cold advection and increased mixing behind the front will promote slightly cooler temperatures, especially north of the I-20 corridor. Afternoon highs will range from the low to mid 60s north of I-20 to the upper 60s and low 70s south of I-20. This evening into early Saturday, a second shortwave will swing through the region within the weak/dry northwesterly flow regime. This trailing wave may bring another round of mid-level cloud cover to parts of the region, but no precipitation is expected given the lack of moisture and limited ascent. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 1225 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026 A warming trend will resume on Sunday and continue into early next week as upper-level ridging reasserts itself over the Southern Plains. The return of southerly flow will foster daily highs in the mid 70s to low 80s both Monday and Tuesday. In the absence of better moisture return, afternoon relative humidity values may dip below 25 percent west of the I-35 corridor on Tuesday afternoon, introducing some localized fire weather concerns. Wind speeds are expected to remain light enough to preclude a more substantial threat, but trends will be monitored. By Wednesday, a pattern shift begins to unfold as an upper trough deepens across the western CONUS, nudging the ridge axis eastward. Strengthening southerly flow ahead of this feature will encourage continued moisture return, with dewpoints climbing into the 50s and 60s. This increase in boundary-layer moisture combined with the approach of a more vigorous shortwave should support a more favorable environment for rainfall late Wednesday into Thursday. Ensemble guidance continues to support the idea of widespread measurable precipitation during this period, marking a potential end to the recent dry spell across the region. While confidence is increasing in the overall setup, questions remain regarding the exact track and timing in the upper level system, which ultimately will dictate the coverage and intensity of rainfall. A more southerly solution would support deeper moisture and a more prolonged precip event, but additional run-to-run consistency will be needed before refining details. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026 VFR will prevail through the period at all terminals. High cloud cover will continue to scatter and clear overnight as a mid-level disturbance exits eastward. Light southerly winds will veer to the west-southwest by midday Friday behind a passing surface low, them becoming northwesterly and diminish below 10 kts Friday evening. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1225 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 75 48 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 80 50 68 41 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 70 47 63 38 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 72 43 66 36 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 72 46 65 37 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 75 49 68 42 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 75 47 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 80 50 70 42 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 83 50 70 40 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 77 43 69 37 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...12