Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
930 FXUS64 KFWD 230615 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 115 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory remains in effect across much of North and Central Texas through 8 PM tonight with heat index values up to 109 expected - Heat Advisories may be extended through the remainder of the week and weekend && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Friday) Issued at 104 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026 While still humid and hot, expect afternoon temperatures today to be a bit "cooler" compared to yesterday as the backdoor cold front pushes through the rest of the region. In the wake of the frontal boundary, east to northeast winds with an upslope wind component will prevail today, helping to keep afternoon highs in the mid 90s to around 101. Slightly lower humidity will cap heat indices closer to between 99-109 degrees. Much of the region will still reach Heat Advisory criteria today in regards to the heat index, and a Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM tonight for the majority of North and Central Texas outside of our immediate Red River counties. On Friday, expect what is currently Tropical Storm Bertha to move inland across Southern Texas. Moisture from Bertha is progged to spread north into portions of the CWA late Thursday into Friday, though greatest moisture will likely remain to our south. This would mainly result in some increased cloud cover, though we cannot rule out a couple spotty showers in southern portions of Central Texas. The influx of moisture and cloud cover will aid in keeping temperatures a bit more modest in the 90s to around 100 in the afternoon. Heat indices region-wide will remain elevated in the triple digits, though the main focus will be across North Texas and eastern Central Texas where more widespread 105-109 degree heat indices are likely. Another Heat Advisory will likely be needed for a good chunk of the region, though final configurations will be made during the morning/afternoon forecast update today. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 104 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026 Going into the weekend and into the first half of this next week, the upper-level ridge will remain planted over the western two- thirds of the CONUS. With southerly winds and a subsident airmass continuing to dominate the regional weather pattern, expect hot and dry conditions to prevail the rest of the forecast period. By the end of the weekend, afternoon highs will peak in the upper 90s across Central Texas and the upper 90s to around 102 in North Texas. Early next week, highs will warm to between 98-105 degrees, with the warmest temperatures mainly across North Texas. Afternoon heat indices will generally range between 99-110 degrees each day, leading to a possible continuation of Heat Advisories through early next week. Make sure to stay cool and hydrated over the next week! && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 104 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026 East-northeasterly winds will prevail at all TAF sites for much of today. Speeds will increase to around 10-11 kt this afternoon, with occasional higher gusts. Late this evening, expect winds to veer a bit more east-southeast for the rest of the period. VFR will prevail the next 24-30 hours, though some MVFR cigs will spread north just after the valid TAF period. With probabilities at or less than 50% and it being on the very edge of the extended TAF period, will include any cigs with the 12Z issuance if more agreement is observed. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 100 80 98 82 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 98 79 95 79 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 94 75 93 77 / 0 0 10 0 Denton 99 78 99 81 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 97 77 96 80 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 100 80 99 81 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 97 77 96 78 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 98 79 96 78 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 99 79 95 77 / 0 10 0 0 Mineral Wells 100 76 98 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ100>107-115>123- 129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Prater LONG TERM....Prater AVIATION...Prater