495
FXUS64 KFWD 272336
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
636 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms will persist across western
  North Texas and across portions of Central Texas through the
  late evening hours. Localized gusty winds are possible near
  storms.

- Rain chances will diminish Friday into the weekend as high
  pressure reasserts itself across the Southern Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Residual cloudiness associated with this morning`s convective
complex over SW Oklahoma and the western Red River Valley will
continue to erode as it drifts southeastward into DFW and the
northern I-35 corridor this afternoon. Lingering showers just west
of DFW with this earlier activity will soon fizzle out. However,
additional isolated showers and storms are still a small possibility
across most of North Texas, owing to the presence of remnant
boundaries, some cloudy/clear differential heating, and an overall
unstable environment. Any cells that do form have the potential
to produce brief periods of strong gusty winds as well as
occasional lightning. Any activity that develops should dissipate
shortly after sunset.

The healthy northwesterly flow regime in place over the Southern
Plains will start to get displaced Friday as the upper high center
over the Desert Southwest edges back over the region. This
should severely limit any renewed convective development across
North Central Texas tomorrow. Daytime highs will edge up a degree
or two vs. today`s readings, with maxima in the 100-102 degree
range common. Dewpoints will decrease slightly tomorrow, but
should stil remain a few degrees above the drier values we saw a
few days ago. As such, heat indices should remain in the lower
100s to 106 degree range for the most part. We`ll hang onto the
current Heat Advisory for this afternoon, but will hold off on
issuing a new product for tomorrow, given marginal nature of the
ambient temperatures and heat indices. That said, these values may
be highest across the Central Texas counties Friday, and residents
should continue take precautions against the ongoing heat.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

The center of the sprawling upper high over the Southern United
States will become re-established over the Southern and Central
Plains from this weekend through next week. The resultant sensible
weather should contain no mystery whatsoever for anyone at this
point. Subsidence from the ridge will facilitate mostly clear
skies and a near total absence of rainfall through the middle of
next week. The only exception may be across our Central Texas
counties, where some potential limited afternoon shower and
thunderstorm activity may occur due to the presence of weak
easterly upper flow and possible inland sea breeze penetrations.

Despite the reinforcing ridge, thicknesses won`t increase all that
much, so daytime highs should "only" top out in the lower 100s
through the period. Afternoon heat indices in some areas may flirt
with the 105-108 degree range next week, potentially necessitating
additional heat advisory issuances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

VFR conditions will persist at all D10 TAF sites and Waco tonight
through Friday. Weak convergence along residual boundaries,
coupled with cloud-induced differential heating and a modestly
unstable atmosphere have led to isolated shower and thunderstorm
development in areas west and well south of D10 this afternoon.
Most of these cells should diminish as heating subsides, and
dissipate after 02z. Much farther south, clusters of storms across
Central Texas may have more staying power through midnight, owing
to a weakness in the upper ridge, coupled with a more pronounced
surface convergence line which is lingering in this area. These
cells should have no impacts anywhere near D10 or Waco overnight.

Upper level high pressure should strengthen through 00z Saturday,
leading to a near complete absence of any convection, and indeed,
any cloudiness at all, during the latter portion of the forecast period.

Modest northeasterly surface flow will persist across D10 through
04z. Windspeeds initially running 5 to 12 knots with some higher
gusts will diminish to 4 to 7 knots after sunset. Winds will
expeience a gradually veering to an easterly direction after 04z,
with speeds remaining quite light through 14z. This easterly flow
regime should prevail at the D10 terminals through most of the day
Friday, with speeds averaging 6 to 10 knots. Farther south, winds
at Waco will veer to a southeast direction after 04z this evening,
and remain southeasterly at around 9 knots through the day Friday.


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79 100  79 101 /   0   0   0   0
Waco                76  99  76  99 /   0   0   0   0
Paris               72  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
Denton              75 100  75 101 /   0   0   0   0
McKinney            74  99  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
Dallas              79 102  79 102 /   0   0   0   0
Terrell             74 100  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           75 100  76  99 /   0   0   0   0
Temple              75 100  75 100 /  20   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       72 101  72 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ102>107-117>123-
131>135-144>148-157>162-174-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bradshaw
LONG TERM....Bradshaw
AVIATION...Bradshaw