Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
566 FXUS64 KFWD 301047 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 547 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will periodically impact the area through Labor Day weekend, with the highest rain chances on Sunday. - While severe weather is unlikely, those with outdoor plans should stay aware for the potential of heavy rainfall, localized flooding, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. - Following slightly cooler temperatures over the weekend, highs will return to the 80s and lower 90s next week. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 120 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025/ /Through Sunday/ Labor Day weekend will be impacted by additional rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms, with Sunday featuring the highest rain chances and greatest potential for localized flooding. Those with outdoor plans, especially campers and boaters, should stay aware of the weather during the next couple of days. A stationary front remains draped through parts of Central Texas with upstream convective complexes in West Texas making eastward progress along this boundary. Some of this convective activity may impinge on our western zones yet this morning before eventually dissipating. In addition, strengthening isentropic ascent on the northern side of the front is resulting in a quick expansion of low stratus and pockets of light rain/drizzle. Further ascent will culminate in deeper elevated convection later this morning, especially from sunrise through the morning hours across parts of North and East Texas. The severe threat will be very low with all of this activity, but localized heavy rainfall and minor flooding will be of concern as some of these cells may have a tendency to train in a NW-SE fashion. The exact corridor of highest precip chances this morning remains uncertain, but it should primarily take shape near or east of the DFW Metroplex. Most of this activity will vacate the area by the afternoon, with new development then occurring in the vicinity of the surface boundary during peak heating through portions of Central Texas. This area will also be able to warm into the upper 80s and 90s due to less prevalent cloud cover, and this will result in at least a marginal threat for strong downburst wind gusts. Similar to yesterday, much of North Texas will remain socked in with cloud cover for a majority of the day which should hold highs to the lower 80s. Following a lull in precipitation through the late evening and overnight period, widespread convective redevelopment will occur during the predawn hours as another disturbance in northwest flow aloft strengthens ascent in the vicinity of the stalled frontal boundary. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to affect much of the forecast area through the morning hours on Sunday, before activity begins to wane with the disturbance`s departure later in the day. Some multi-inch rainfall totals are possible which could result in minor flooding or even isolated instances of flash flooding. However, pinning down an area more favorable than another for a higher flood risk is not feasible at this time range. With widespread rainfall and cloud cover, highs should only be in the low to mid 80s area-wide on Sunday afternoon, and there should be some dry time later in the day for holiday weekend activities. -Stalley && .LONG TERM... /Issued 120 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025/ /Monday Onward/ The old stalled frontal boundary will become increasingly washed out and diffuse heading into Monday, but upstream troughing and weak low-level convergence will still support low rain chances on Labor Day. However, coverage is expected to be more isolated/scattered in comparison to Sunday, and many areas will likely stay dry. Highs should be able to rebound into the upper 80s for many areas with less widespread cloud cover than previous days. A much deeper east CONUS trough, certainly anomalous for early September, is progged to take shape on Tuesday which will persist through the second half of the week. This regime will send another cold front through the forecast area on Tuesday with drier air filtering in behind it. While some low rain chances may exist with the initial frontal passage itself, much of the midweek period is shaping up to be dry and rather pleasant with dewpoints in the 50s arriving within northerly surface flow. Persistent northwest flow aloft could send one or more storm complexes towards the area later in the week as low-level flow returns to southeasterly, and low PoPs will return to the forecast on Thursday and Friday to account for this potential. Highs through most of the workweek will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s, with a couple nights of lows dipping into the low/mid 60s. -Stalley && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12z TAFs/ Scattered showers have developed across much of North and East Texas during the past couple of hours, and precipitation will be likely within D10 through the rest of the morning. The potential for thunder will increase in a couple of hours and continue through midday as stronger ascent overspreads the area. For Waco, storm chances will peak during the afternoon rather than this morning before activity finally moves off to the southeast. In addition to convective impacts, IFR cigs and periodically reduced visibility can be expected through most of the morning before improvement to MVFR and eventually VFR occurs through the afternoon and evening. IFR cigs will fill back in quickly overnight, with an additional round of widespread showers and storms impacting all airports on Sunday morning. -Stalley && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 73 83 71 86 / 70 70 90 30 30 Waco 90 73 83 71 86 / 60 60 90 50 40 Paris 84 70 82 68 83 / 20 40 50 30 20 Denton 82 70 83 69 86 / 60 70 80 40 20 McKinney 82 71 83 69 85 / 50 60 80 30 20 Dallas 84 73 84 72 86 / 70 70 80 30 30 Terrell 83 71 82 69 85 / 60 60 80 30 30 Corsicana 85 73 83 71 87 / 70 60 80 40 40 Temple 91 73 85 69 88 / 40 50 90 50 50 Mineral Wells 85 71 83 69 86 / 70 80 90 30 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$