Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
342 FXUS64 KFWD 121826 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 126 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions and above normal temperatures are expected the rest of this week with highs in the 80s and 90s. - A more active weather pattern is expected to arrive by the end of this weekend into next with with daily chances for storms. We will continue to monitor the potential for severe storms next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026 Weak northwesterly flow aloft will continue over the region as a longwave ridge builds over the Rocky Mountains. This will promote surface high pressure resulting in clear skies and above normal temperatures for the area. Highs in the 80s today will give way to upper 80s and low 90s tomorrow afternoon. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s and 60s tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026 ....Wednesday through Friday... Ridging over the central CONUS will continue through the rest of the work week, beginning to break down by Friday. The subtropical jet will strengthen as 300 hPa flow of 50-80 knots will extend from the Baja, across Texas, and into the Northwest Gulf. Weak divergence aloft associated with this jet will promote the development of surface low pressure in the High Plains, resulting in south-southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph across the area. Areas generally along and east of the I-35 corridor should still remain in the Gulf moisture plume with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s by the end of the work week. Further west (especially west of US-281) where boundary layer moisture will be much less, temperatures may rise into the mid/upper 90s by Friday. Just northwest of our area in portions of Northwest Texas, clear skies, dry air, and a component of adiabatic compression from surface flow off the Mexican Plateau may result in temperatures as high as 105. We will continue to watch the western extent of surface moisture on Friday; if it looks to keep further east, areas west of US-281 will see an increased potential for near 100 degree heat on Friday (current probabilities of highs at least 100 degrees are ~5% as of now). ...Saturday... A compact shortwave trough looks to eject from the southern Rockies into the southern Great Plains during the day on Saturday. At the surface, gusty southeasterly winds of 20-30 mph will continue to bring rich boundary layer moisture into the region from the Gulf. While the majority of the area will remain under a strong capping inversion, there is a low chance (5-10%) that enough of the cap will erode in proximity to the dryline west of our area to get a storm or two to develop. While any storm that develops in this environment will be capable of damaging winds and large hail, uncertainties with the dry line position, CIN aloft and dry air in the mid-levels make this scenario exceptionally conditional. Nonetheless, there is a weak QPF signal in a couple long-range models (including the GFS). Should this signal remain, low precipitation chances may be warranted for areas along and west of US-281 Saturday evening in subsequent forecast updates. ...Sunday... By the end of the upcoming weekend, medium-range guidance remains in consensus that troughing will amplify and take hold across much of the Great Basin and Rockies. Height falls and divergence aloft will result in surface cyclogenesis in the Central High Plains. Strong southwesterly surface winds associated with the dry conveyer belt of this developing system will help sharpen the dryline to the west by advecting in dry continental air as southeasterly winds over our area continue to bring in a much more humid airmass off the Gulf. Though warm temperatures above the boundary layer will bring another day of strong capping over the region, weak upper level disturbances in the subtropical jet in combination with modest mid-level height falls looks to create an environment favorable for isolated convection along the dryline during peak diurnal heating. Any storms that develop may be strong to severe. The uncertainty at this time is how far east into our forecast area storms will be able to move as CIN will increase with eastward extent from the dryline. We will continue monitoring this set up, as an eastward shift in the expected dryline location will result in an uptick in storm potential for locations along and west of the US-281 corridor. ...Early Next Work Week... Though this part of the forecast is at a range where forecast details are uncertain, the general pattern looks to favor several days of active weather with daily chances for thunderstorms. Southwesterly flow aloft strengthened by the subtropical jet with embedded shortwaves over a very unstable airmass will create an environment supportive of strong to severe thunderstorms. Furthermore a the dryline and a weak cold front will provide enhanced corridors of low-level lift, increasing precip chances wherever they end up. Though where exactly is uncertain, there will almost certainly be an increase in storm and severe potential for some locations in the southern Great Plains during this time frame as forecast confidence increases over the next few days. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026 A cumulus field will bring FEW to SCT skies at 035-050 periodically to TAF sites this afternoon and should dissipate by 00Z. Otherwise expect clear skies and weak southerly flow at the surface of ~5 knots. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 63 89 68 90 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 60 87 65 89 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 57 86 63 86 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 59 88 66 89 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 61 88 66 89 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 63 89 68 91 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 58 87 65 89 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 62 88 66 91 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 61 88 66 90 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 58 88 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Darrah LONG TERM....Darrah AVIATION...Darrah