Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
990 FXUS64 KFWD 231841 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 141 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather and mostly dry conditions will continue through the weekend. - A change in the weather pattern is expected next week, bringing slightly cooler temperatures and at least low rain chances. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 129 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026 Warm, dry and benign fall weather will prevail across North Central Texas this afternoon through Saturday, as a highly amplified upper level ridge continues to dominate the Southern Plains. While narrow longitudinally, this ridge is actually strong by late October standards, with 500 mb geopotential heights and temperatures both pushing the 95th percentile climatologically for this date. Subsidence within this ridge, assisted to some degree by the dryness of the air, will promote unseasonably warm afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s across most of the area both today and Saturday. The lower dewpoints and light winds will allow temperatures to dip back into the 50s at most locations Saturday morning. Apart from a few high clouds spilling over the ridge, skies should remain mostly clear through Saturday evening. Bradshaw && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 129 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026 The pronounced upper ridge over the Southern Plains will drift slowly eastward and deamplify by Monday and Tuesday, with broad southwesterly flow becoming established across North Texas in its wake. A mid level shortwave trough will eject from the Rockies across the Plains Monday night and Tuesday. Moisture and forcing for ascent will initially be sufficient to trigger scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across West Texas by late Monday. As the shortwave moves northeastward, however, the southern portion of this feature will become damped out as it transits North Texas. The resultant reduction in forcing should greatly reduce precipitation coverage and intensities across western North Texas. At this time, the NBM maintains low end PoPs for our far western counties west of US-281 on Tuesday, while keeping a dry forecast for the area to the east. Significant mid and high level cloudiness streaming across the region ahead of the ejecting mid level trough will help shave daytime temperatures down a few degrees from Monday through mid week, with upper 70s to lower 80s the daily rule. A quasi-zonal to broad northwesterly flow regime will evolve over the Southern Plains in the Thursday and Friday timeframe. Some ensemble members are suggesting the arrival of a cold front in North Texas by late Thursday, though the consensus seems to keep the boundary north of the Red River through the period. Ahead of the front, a milder east to southeast surface pattern will develop, with substantial cloudiness in place. Model solutions depict enough isentropic lift to support scattered showers across most of North and Central Texas by Friday afternoon. Bradshaw && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 129 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026 VFR conditions will continue through the entire period, as a strong upper level ridge dominates the region. Light southeast wind will persist this afternoon and this evening, becoming light and generally from an east to southeast direction after 06z. Southeast winds will resume after 14z Saturday, at speeds averaging 5 to 8 knots. Bradshaw && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 60 85 62 81 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 56 85 59 81 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 55 85 56 81 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 57 84 60 81 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 57 84 59 81 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 60 86 63 82 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 56 85 58 82 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 56 85 58 80 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 57 87 60 82 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 57 83 60 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bradshaw LONG TERM....Bradshaw AVIATION...Bradshaw