Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
155 FXUS64 KFWD 270601 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 101 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures will continue through the workweek, with low rain chances through Wednesday. - A change in the weather pattern is expected later this week, leading to increasing rain chances from Thursday into Saturday along with slightly cooler temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026 A shortwave disturbance is in the process of ejecting northeastward into the Central Pains early this morning, with trailing light rain falling from an attendant mid cloud deck across parts of North Texas. This light rain will not be measurable for most locations, hence PoPs of just 10% advertised in the forecast through the early morning hours today. While cloudy skies will be present to begin the day, they will accompany the shortwave off to the east later in the afternoon with only scattered high cloud cover remaining by this evening. Light south/southeast winds will continue, while highs remain above normal in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Moist southerly flow will continue into Wednesday, and an eastward shift of the low-level moist axis will send dewpoints into the upper 50s and lower 60s locally. Although large-scale lift will be absent as modest zonal flow aloft prevails through midweek, sufficient low-level warm/moist advection may allow for a few rain showers in parts of Central Texas on Wednesday. However, this potential is presently too low to warrant any PoPs/precip mention in the public forecast. Expect another afternoon of unseasonably warm and humid conditions as a result of this warm advection regime, with highs mostly in the mid 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026 A more active extended forecast period is still expected towards the end of the week and into the weekend. Rain chances will begin to increase on Thursday west of I-35 as higher quality moisture content arrives with surface dewpoints climbing into the mid or even upper 60s. By Friday, a large-scale pattern shift to deep western CONUS troughing will allow a subtropical jet to interact with remnant moisture from a Pacific tropical system across New Mexico and Texas. This will offer fairly widespread rain chances especially near and west of I-35 Friday into Saturday. With meager instability present, this activity should consist of a broad area of beneficial rainfall with isolated embedded thunderstorms. While timing is still uncertain, it appears that Halloween festivities could largely be unaffected as much of this activity could be winding down during the daytime Saturday. Increased cloud cover may limit high temperatures to some extent both Friday and Saturday, but temps are likely to remain near or above normal without a frontal passage to accompany this system. While the Friday/Saturday storm system will be unaccompanied by a cold frontal passage, a stronger frontal intrusion is looking increasingly likely for early next week. Most global guidance is in fairly good agreement regarding the deepening of a potent Central US upper low by early next week which would be able to send a stronger fall cold front through the area on Monday or Tuesday. This boundary would also likely offer some additional rain chances with its passage should this solution come to fruition. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. An upper-level disturbance is resulting in light rain falling from a cloud deck at ~10kft, and this will continue through the early morning hours across portions of North Texas. Precip chances at the terminals are too low to even warrant VCSH in the TAFs at this time. Skies will gradually begin to clear later today, while south/southeast winds at 5-10 kt continue. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 62 82 63 / 0 10 10 0 Waco 80 60 82 61 / 0 10 10 0 Paris 80 57 81 57 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 79 58 81 59 / 0 10 10 0 McKinney 79 58 81 59 / 0 0 10 0 Dallas 80 63 83 63 / 0 0 10 0 Terrell 80 59 81 58 / 0 0 10 0 Corsicana 78 60 81 61 / 0 0 10 0 Temple 80 61 83 62 / 0 10 0 0 Mineral Wells 78 59 81 60 / 0 10 20 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Stalley LONG TERM....Stalley AVIATION...Stalley