Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
414 FXUS64 KFWD 071030 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 530 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and mostly dry weather will continue for the next several days, with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal. - Low chances for showers and thunderstorms will accompany a weak cold front for parts of East and Central Texas this afternoon, but most areas will remain rain-free. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 107 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025/ /Through Tonight/ Above normal temperatures continue today despite the arrival of a cold front which is set to move through the area beginning this morning. This boundary will have little impact on sensible weather however, with minimal thermal contrast across it. The convergent wind shift should be capable in producing at least a few rain showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm during peak heating, and this will be most likely across Central Texas where the front should be located by mid-afternoon. Coverage will only be around 10% or less. Highs will still climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s even behind the frontal passage, with overnight lows falling into the 60s. -Stalley && .LONG TERM... /Issued 107 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025/ /Wednesday Onward/ An unseasonably strong upper ridge will continue to bring warm and mostly dry weather through the extended forecast period with rain chances staying below 10% into next week. Highs will remain 5-10 degrees above normal in the mid 80s to lower 90s as southeast winds resume in the wake of the midweek frontal passage. A fetch of drier low-level air will result in lower humidity heading into the upcoming weekend which could result in an uptick in wildfire starts given the recent dry spell and unseasonably warm temperatures. By early next week, Pacific moisture from the remnants of one or more eastern Pacific tropical systems may arrive within a strengthening belt of mid-level westerlies which should increase cloud cover at a minimum. There is some indication this could interact with a nearby stalled frontal zone to offer low rain chances to part of North Texas, but this potential is too low to warrant more than 10% PoPs in the forecast at this time. -Stalley && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12z TAFs/ A cold front is making southward progress into North Texas as of 1030z, and will pass through the D10 airports around 15-16z. Until then, a very light northeast wind will prevail, with speeds increasing to 5-10 kts following the front`s north wind shift later this morning. VFR will prevail with a few daytime cumulus and increasing mid/high cloud cover arriving from the west later today. There is a small chance for diurnally driven showers as well, but with minimal coverage of 10% or less expected, this will not be formally addressed in the TAFs at this time. -Stalley && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 90 67 87 65 87 / 5 5 0 0 0 Waco 91 68 90 67 88 / 10 5 5 0 0 Paris 90 65 84 60 83 / 10 5 0 0 0 Denton 89 62 86 60 86 / 5 5 5 0 0 McKinney 90 64 86 61 86 / 5 5 5 0 0 Dallas 92 68 89 66 88 / 5 5 0 0 0 Terrell 91 65 88 61 86 / 5 10 5 0 0 Corsicana 92 69 91 65 88 / 10 5 5 0 0 Temple 91 66 90 65 88 / 10 5 10 0 0 Mineral Wells 91 63 87 62 89 / 5 5 5 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$