Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
975 FXUS64 KFWD 091108 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 508 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Freezing temperatures are expected across much of North and Central Texas tonight. A Freeze Warning is in effect for most of the area with temperatures as low as the mid 20s possible on Monday morning. - Following a warmer and rain-free workweek, rain chances return to the area next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1120 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025 Our much-anticipated first strong cold front of the season is clearing our final southeastern counties as of 1130 PM, with breezy north winds prevailing in its wake. Sustained north winds of 10-20 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph will be maintained through most of the daytime, with resultant cold advection offsetting diabatic heating. This will hold high temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s this afternoon, as much as 20 degrees cooler than yesterday. Tonight, much of the CWA will experience the first freezing temps of the season, and the Freeze Watch has been converted to a Freeze Warning with this forecast issuance. The only zones excluded from this product are our western zones (which already experienced a freeze at the end of October) and our far southwestern zones which are progged to hold in the mid 30s for overnight lows. For North Texas, a handful of locations will likely dip as low as the mid 20s as effective radiational cooling in the presence of lessening wind speeds and dewpoints in the teens allows temperatures to plummet heading into Monday morning. Winds will be much lighter on Monday as a strong surface high becomes anchored across the Central/Southern Plains, with highs only reaching the 50s for most of the region. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1120 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025 Following our arctic air intrusion to begin the workweek, low- level flow will return to southerly on Tuesday as an upper ridge amplifies across the Central CONUS. A fairly quick warming trend will ensue as temperatures return to near or above normal from Tuesday through Friday with highs in the 70s and 80s. This could culminate in an elevated wildfire threat across our western zones on Tuesday afternoon as delayed moisture return will keep RH values low amid strengthening southerly winds. By next weekend, extended guidance indicates a breakdown of the ridge axis, although a large spread remains in the timing of this occurring. Most of the GEFS suite indicates a fairly progressive open wave trough traversing the region as early as Saturday, while a larger percentage of ECMWF guidance is in favor of a slower cutoff low solution. Some low PoPs are included for as early as Saturday, but a trend towards a closed low setup would likely delay rain chances to the Sunday/Monday time frame instead. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 458 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 Post-frontal north winds will steadily increase in speed this morning as daytime mixing ensues, with sustained speeds of 15-20 kts and gusts as high as 30 kts prevailing through most of the daytime. Winds will decrease to around 10 kts or less later this evening where they`ll remain into Monday. Aside from a SCT/BKN cirrus plume presently passing overhead, mostly clear VFR skies will prevail through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 58 34 54 40 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 63 31 56 38 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 53 28 51 33 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 57 28 53 36 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 58 31 53 37 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 59 35 55 41 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 58 30 54 35 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 61 33 56 38 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 64 33 58 35 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 59 28 58 37 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for TXZ091>095-101>107-116>123-130>135-143>148-159>162-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Stalley LONG TERM....Stalley AVIATION...Stalley