Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
264 FXUS64 KFWD 120605 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1205 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A warming trend will occur through the rest of the workweek with afternoon highs returning to the 70s and 80s. - Showers and thunderstorm chances of 20-40% return late this weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1204 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 As mid-level ridging become settled over the center of the country, quiet weather conditions and a gradual warming trend will take place through the short-term forecast period. Expect afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s Wednesday afternoon, inching into the low to mid 80s by Thursday afternoon. Low stratus and fog potential will increase late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as persistent southerly flow draws mid to upper 50s surface dewpoints over parts of Central Texas and the Brazos Valley. Relatively light winds and greater humidity will keep the fire weather threat very low despite the continued dry forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1204 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 Warm and rain-free conditions will persist through the first half of the weekend as extended guidance continues to push our next weather-making system toward the latter half of the weekend into early next week. Expect widespread highs in the mid 80s both Friday and Saturday with increasing cloud cover, especially east of I-35, as southerly flow continues to pump better quality Gulf moisture into our region. By late Sunday into Monday, a compact shortwave trough is progged to shift from the Four Corners region toward the Central Plains. The greatest synoptic-scale lift will remain north of our forecast area, but this system will likely reinforce surface troughing over Kansas/Oklahoma pushing a frontal system into North Texas by early next week. The best rain chances (20-40%) will occur Sunday night into Monday night with forecasted accumulated rainfall totals unfortunately remaining generally below a quarter- inch through late Monday. So all in all, don`t expect a washout early next week. It is more likely that most locations across North and Central Texas continue this period of dry weather. A drastic cooldown isn`t expected with this early week system either. Rain chances may increase again toward the middle of next week as the current suite of ensemble and deterministic guidance highlights a more broadscale trough sweeping across the country in the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 VFR conditions and southerly surface winds generally below 10 kts will prevail through the TAF period at all North and Central Texas terminals with passing FEW to SCT high clouds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 50 77 57 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 71 51 79 58 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 66 47 74 53 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 71 44 75 51 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 69 47 75 54 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 71 51 77 58 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 69 48 77 55 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 72 53 80 59 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 72 48 80 56 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 76 45 80 51 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Langfeld LONG TERM....Langfeld AVIATION...Langfeld