Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
238 FXUS64 KFWD 281927 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 227 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered severe storms are expected along a sagging cold front late this afternoon and evening. Very large hail (>3-3.5") and damaging winds will be the main threats although a tornado or two will also be possible. - Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected late Thursday and Friday with some potential for heavy rainfall resulting in flash flooding. - Dry and seasonably cooler weather is forecast over the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Wednesday night) Issued at 149 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 We`re still looking at a very active afternoon and evening as the severe weather risk increases across much of North Texas. Latest satellite imagery and surface observations show a well defined dryline to our west (west of Abilene) and a nearly stationary cold front along the Red River. The environment in the warm sector (our area) remains very unstable and supportive of severe storms to develop near and along the front as it pushes across North Texas this afternoon and evening. The timing of the severe storms hasn`t changed much from previous forecast. We`re still looking at storms developing near/along the Red River from now until ~5pm, pushing through the I-20 corridor between 5and 9pm, and finally across our southern Central Texas counties through 1am. Much of North Texas (including the DFW Metroplex) has the greatest threat to see very large hail and damaging winds. While the tornado threat is lower, we could still see a couple of tornadoes especially in the evening hours as the low level winds strengthen. That being said, we still want to reiterate that the environment is very conducive for very large hail with a potential to see hail greater than baseball size (potentially >3.5"). Make sure to pay attention to the weather this evening and have multiple ways to receive warnings. In addition to the severe risk, areas of heavy rain may also result in flash flooding due to high PWs and very efficient rainfall rates. As the main cluster of storms move southeast tonight, northerly winds will follow on the wake of the front with clouds spreading overnight into Wednesday morning. Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop tomorrow, mainly across Central Texas where the front will slow down and become nearly stationary. We can`t rule out a few strong to marginally severe storms with hail and isolated damaging wind gusts. Additionally, pockets of heavy rain may also result in isolated flash flooding. A few showers/storms may clip into portions of North Texas, but the chances are lower (20-30%). Otherwise, expect cooler weather tomorrow with highs generally in the 70s to low 80s across Central TX. Sanchez && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 227 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 The weather pattern will remain fairly active through the end of the week as multiple rounds of showers and storms spread across the region. Upper level disturbances on top of a very moist environment will bring widespread showers and a few thunderstorms starting Thursday night through the day Friday. The severe weather risk remains low with this activity but the risk for flash flooding will increase across the region given the saturated soils. PW values are forecast to be between 1.5-1.8" which will promote efficient rain producing showers and storms. Additional average rainfall totals between 1.5 to 3 inches are forecast during this period with isolated higher amounts possible. At this time, areas across Central Texas currently have the best potential to see these higher amounts, but even small changes to the axis of heavy rain will change where those totals occur. Continue to check back for forecast updates. In addition to the widespread rain, we will be noticeably cooler on Friday with highs only in the 50s/60s. A warming trend is expected over the weekend but will still be well below normal with highs in the 70s. The good news is that dry weather is expected over the weekend as high pressure moves overhead and pushes the moisture out of our area. The dry weather is expected to continue into early next week with temperatures returning to the 80s region wide. Sanchez && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Concerns...Thunderstorms including the potential for severe weather later this afternoon into the evening. Low ceilings return overnight. Ceilings should continue to lift to VFR early this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are still expected to develop near and along the front as it moves through the area. Not a lot of changes were made to the timing of the storms impacting the DFW Metroplex sites, with VCTS starting at 22Z and a TEMPO of TSRA between 23-01Z this evening. While some isolated activity may develop before the broken line of storms, confidence in timing and coverage is too low to include it in the TAF. In addition to the lightning threat, some of the storms will be capable of producing very large hail (greater than baseball size) and damaging winds. This activity should be south of D10 after 03Z with northerly winds expected through the night. While the potential for TS to impact Waco is lower, we can`t rule out some VCTS between 03-06Z. Another round of MVFR ceilings will develop overnight into much of the day Wednesday. We could also see some light precipitation impacting some of the sites during the day Wednesday. Sanchez && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 149 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Spotter activation may be requested across North Texas. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 89 60 71 61 / 60 60 20 20 Waco 92 66 74 63 / 20 30 50 40 Paris 81 58 71 57 / 70 60 30 20 Denton 88 56 69 57 / 60 40 10 20 McKinney 87 58 70 60 / 70 50 20 20 Dallas 90 61 73 62 / 60 60 20 20 Terrell 87 62 72 61 / 60 70 30 30 Corsicana 91 66 76 64 / 40 60 50 40 Temple 92 68 78 63 / 10 20 50 40 Mineral Wells 93 57 70 57 / 30 10 10 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$