030
FXUS65 KGGW 140827
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
227 AM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Strong to severe thunderstorms can be expected across the
southwest and far northern portion of the area late this
afternoon/early evening.

2) There are varying levels of confidence in severe weather
opportunities on Sunday and Monday as favorable upper level flow
continues to keep moisture in place over the area.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A similar situation to the previous day with an upper level
shortwave trough moving through the high terrain of central
Montana will get a few isolated thunderstorms going late this
afternoon. A weak stationary front will is also aiding in storm
development in a few of the high resolution models along the
Canadian border, but overall storms that form there will be weaker
than storms in the southwest. Isolated large hail greater than one
inch in diameter and wind gusts are 58 mph are the main threats.
More widespread severe weather chances are expected on Sunday with
a more intense shortwave trough, and Monday appears as though much
of the severe potential will be more confined to the southeast
portion of the area. The Storm Prediction Center has more
information regarding these upcoming severe weather threats.

The activity on Sunday night is the most promising for rainfall
for some portion of the area. There is moderate to high (50 to
70 percent) confidence of greater than one tenth of an inch of
rain occurring south of the Missouri River, with low confidence
north of the Missouri River.

The above mentioned pattern will continue to bring scattered
showers and thunderstorms throughout the upcoming week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

There is moderate confidence in severe weather occurring in
various locations across the area through Monday. There is
moderate to high confidence of accumulating rain occurring south
of the Missouri River through Monday, with low confidence across
the north.

Main deviation was to increase winds around the town of Glasgow
and Fort Peck this morning above NBM 90 since the observed winds
continue to be much higher than base NBM.


&&

.AVIATION...

Updated: 0900Z Saturday, June 14th.

Flight Category: VFR, MVFR, and IFR.

PATTERN: In KSDY and KGDV, low clouds are being reinforced by low
level southeast winds, so MVFR and scattered IFR ceilings are
expected to remain through late morning. For KOLF and KGGW, there
is moderate (50 percent) confidence a brief period of MVFR
ceilings will move through between 09Z and 16Z this morning before
VFR conditions move in. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
move into the area by evening, with low confidence of
thunderstorms moving through KSDY and KGDV.

WINDS: For KGGW, southeast at 10 to 18 knots, becoming light and
variable after 19Z. For all other TAF sites, southeast at 5 to 10
knots becoming light and variable after 00Z Sunday. Gusty and
erratic winds near thunderstorms.


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow