951
FXUS65 KGGW 282025
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
225 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm, dry, and gusty conditions on Tuesday will be cause for
  fire weather concern.

- The first major frost of the season is possible along river
  bottoms Thursday morning, due to cooler surface temperatures
  associated from a cold front and high pressure will aid in
  subsidence.

- PoPs on Friday remain isolated, yet questionable as a surface
  high and convergence aloft will compete regarding lift and
  descent.

FINDLEY

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW:

An omega blocking pattern is causing a digging trough to delay
its advancement eastward, creating a conveyor belt of moisture
transport northward from the desert southwest region. This
moisture transport may elevate PoPs, however, increasing clouds in
our CWA will reduce diurnal heating which should limit precip in
our region today through Tuesday.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
The upper-level low, aforementioned above, will transition into a
cut-off low. An embedded shortwave in the mid-levels may increase
PoPs into Tuesday, though will remain isolated and confined to the
furthest-most southwest of our CWA. Chances of a wetting rain
remain isolated as well. Subsequent warm, dry, and gusty
conditions on Tuesday will be cause for fire weather concern.

WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY:
A digging longwave trough in central Canada, coinsiding with the
southern cut off low, aiding to tighten the pressure gradient
force. This tight PGF will cause gusty winds in our area.
Furthermore, a cold front associated with a low pressure system
will lift through our region throughout the early morning hours of
Thursday. This will create cooler temperatures in the upper
50s-mid 60s throughout the region to be shortly replaced by a
developing high-pressure ridge that will warm our CWA back up on
Friday. Weak disturbances in the strong winds aloft may bring a
brief shower or two but models cannot agree on the timing, thus a
dry forecast is in place for now.

Agreement between models begins to break down come Friday night,
but an oncoming upper-level trough is anticipated to dig over
Montana sometime between Friday night and Saturday afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

- Moderate confidence in chances for showers through Wednesday.

- Low to moderate confidence in FireWx Tuesday afternoon.

- Moderate confidence in partial frost Thursday morning.

FINDLEY

&&

.AVIATION...
LAST UPDATED: 2010Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

DISCUSSION: Cirrus clouds overhead KGGW, KGDV and KSDY with clearing
by this evening. VFR conditions prevail through Tuesday.

SFC WIND: Light and variable winds through this evening. Winds
increase from the west to southwest.

FINDLEY


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow