Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
302 FXUS65 KGGW 291921 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 121 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Threat of severe thunderstorms with winds in excess of 60 mph in the east along the North Dakota border through this evening in areas where temperatures are expected to be in the 90s and 100s yet. - Saturday is looking to be dangerously hot, with near record high temperatures in jeopardy if the high-end temperatures forecast (less than 10% likelihood) verify. Widespread 100s to 110s in the southwest. - Behind the Saturday cold front, critical fire weather conditions are likely for Sunday as it will be extremely dry (~10% RH) with winds in the range of 15-25mph out of the west. && .DISCUSSION... WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Overall, hot and dry conditions remain in place due to strong ridging over northeast Montana through early this weekend. A couple of small shortwaves are moving through the region through Thursday, leading to periodic rain chances which will be in isolated to scattered form. Yet this afternoon, there remains chances for severe thunderstorms along the North Dakota border with severe winds being the main threat. The current pattern culminates in potentially the hottest day of the year on Saturday, where widespread 100s to 110s will be likely. A dry cold front moves through Saturday night, which will lead to a slow pattern change, and relief from the heat for many. Sunday will be highlighted by critical concerns for fire weather while remaining hot, but windy. By Monday, afternoon high temperatures across the region could be in the 70s and 80s, which would be a 20-30 degree cooldown from Saturday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in the hot weather continuing through Saturday. Confidence is increasing rapidly on major concerns for critical fire weather on Sunday. Low confidence in timing any showers and thunderstorms. No major deviations from the base forecast were made for this iteration. Cliff && .AVIATION... FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR - MVFR. DISCUSSION: Showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect airfields in the far eastern portions of northeast Montana, especially SDY and GDV through early evening tonight. Variable winds that are gusting above 30kts likely with storms through the rest of the day. High clouds move in this evening after the storms and conditions quiet until Thursday afternoon when precipitation chances return. WINDS: Overall winds will turn from northwest to southeast through Thursday and generally remain around to under 10kts, with thunderstorm exceptions as listed above. DENSITY ALTITUDE: Increased density altitude is expected today with temperatures near or over 100 in the afternoon and evening. Extra power and longer runway will be needed for takeoffs. Cliff && .FIRE WEATHER... Fire weather concerns will be low to moderate through Friday even with the continued heat, as winds will generally be fairly quiet. Starting Saturday afternoon, however, concerns quickly ramp up to being near critical in advance of a dry cold front moving through the region Saturday evening. The concerns for critical fire weather come to an apex on Sunday, as widespread RH values are expected to be in the low teens while winds are likely to be in the 20 to 30 mph range and temperatures remain in the upper 80s to upper 90s. While not zero, there is a low chance of dry lightning on Sunday as well, which would only work to add to the fire weather concerns. While the situation will need to continue to be monitored, Fire Weather headlines are expected to be needed in the coming forecast cycles. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for Dawson-Eastern Roosevelt-McCone-Prairie-Richland-Western Roosevelt-Wibaux. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow