556
FXUS63 KGID 141144
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
644 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms (some possibly strong) will continue
  through the rest of the overnight into the daylight hours.

- There is a threat of strong to marginally severe storms late
  this evening into tonight.

- Heat index values up to around 100 to 104 degrees expected
  this afternoon across portions of north central Kansas and
  near the Nebraska/Kansas border.

- Strong to severe storms may develop Saturday evening into
  Saturday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Rain and thunderstorms are currently moving across the area. A
bowing line of storms produced a few wind gusts around 60 MPH across
portions of south central Nebraska. This line is exiting the area
and has weakened. Thunderstorms are continuing to develop as an MCV
moves across the area. Storms are not expected to be severe for the
remainder of the overnight period but some strong storms with gusty
winds up to around 50 MPH and small hail may develop. Lingering
showers (and perhaps an isolated storm or two) may continue across
portions of the area through this morning. Most, if not all, of the
area should be dry by this afternoon. Additional storm development
is expected late this evening into tonight. Some of these storms may
become strong to marginally severe. Wind gusts up to around 60 MPH
and hail up to around the size of quarters are the main threats.

High temperatures today are expected to range from the upper 70s
(around Ord, NE) to the mid 90s (across portions of north central
KS). An abundance of moisture in the air (dewpoints mostly in the
70s during the afternoon) may result in heat index values across
portions of north central Kansas and around the Nebraska/Kansas
border of around 100 to 104 degrees. Low temperatures tonight will
be in the 60s and 70s. Various storm chances continue across at
least a portion of the area through Thursday night. Strong to
marginally severe storms may impact portions of the area Saturday
evening into Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 434 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS/UNCERTAINTIES:
- No truly major changes to speak of versus previous issuance
  last night/early this morning. That being said, as was
  expected here 24 hours ago...high temps for especially Sunday-
  Tuesday have trended a bit warmer (and possibly not enough),
  as any highs only in the 70s would appear most favored
  possibly Sunday and mainly in our north.

- The most pressing/obvious very-short-term issue is assessing
  severe storm potential late this afternoon/especially
  evening...with our MAIN concern for a few severe storms
  (mainly with a damaging wind threat) focused 9PM-1AM and
  mainly in the southwestern quadrant of our CWA (counties
  mainly along/west of Hwy 281 and along/west of Hwy 6.

- Big picture overview of the upper air pattern through the next
  week: Our RELATIVELY consistent pattern over the next week
  (fairly consistent warm-but-not-overly hot temperatures and
  intermittent rain/thunderstorm chances) is very typical for
  this time of year when we reside along the periphery/interface
  between a large-scale upper level high/ridge centered to our
  south...and the primary upper jet stream centered to our
  north. Really the only thing that changes is the spacial
  orientation of the ridge...as these next few days we remain
  under mainly southwesterly flow aloft (upper high centered
  over the Mid-South/southeastern states)...which then
  transitions to more west-northwesterly flow especially Sunday-
  Wednesday as the upper ridge retrogrades back west into the
  Southern Plains (TX/OK) and eventually southwest (NM/AZ).

-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN (through Thurs. Aug.
 20):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE:
Briefly backing up to last night/early this morning, forecasts
from 24 hours ago were fairly "spot on" that a potentially-
severe convective complex would march across our northern
counties. However, we did not necessarily anticipate a
particularly-damaging (thankfully narrow) swath of at least
70-80+ MPH winds centered roughly along a line from Arcadia-
North Loup-Greeley that caused considerable tree/power line and
some structural damage.

In the wake of last night`s long-departed storm complex
(actually still ongoing over southern Indiana), today has thus
far been dry/uneventful, under variable sky cover ranging from
mainly mostly cloudy north...to partly cloudy central...to
mostly sunny south. In the mid-upper levels, water vapor
satellite and short term model data confirm that we reside under
the aforementioned west-southwesterly flow aloft, with the next
low-amplitude shortwave trough/disturbance of interest gradually
headed our way out of eastern CO.

At the surface, it`s another day with a fairly big temperature
gradient across the CWA, thanks to that same sharp, quasi-
stationary front draped in west-east fashion across northern KS.
To the north of this boundary, most of our CWA is realizing
highs between the low 80s-low 90s, in the presence of
northeasterly/easterly breezes generally 10-15 MPH. However,
along and especially south of the boundary, temps in the mid-
upper 90s (and even limited 100+ extreme south) are present in
our KS counties. This same southern part of our CWA is also the
only area realizing 100+ heat index through early this
evening...with fairly widespread values of at least 100-105 and
possibly even localized up to ~ 110 (mainly Mitchell County).
As a result, a Heat Advisory continues in our KS counties until
9 PM.


- LATE THIS AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT:
As of this writing, a few "blips" of high-based convection are
just starting to develop about 30 miles south of our extreme
southeastern CWA (Lincoln County KS area)...in an area of very
steep low-level lapse rates/deep mixing south of the sharp
surface front. Leaning on higher-res models such as HRRR, at
some point mainly 5-8 PM could at least brush up into especially
Mitchell County in our extreme southeast...possibly posing a
threat for mainly severe wind gusts.

However, of much higher confidence and concern is that
convection just getting underway over southwestern/south central
KS will accelerate northward into mainly the southwestern
quadrant of our CWA mainly 9PM-1AM, posing a risk for at least
localized severe gusts to ~ 65 MPH, and perhaps hail up to
around quarter size (hail being the lesser threat). Although we
are NOT expecting a repeat of last night`s very intense/damaging
winds, these storms will have plentiful instability (at least
2000-3000 J/kg CAPE, but a limiting factor of only modest deep-
layer shear mainly no more than 30-35KT. However, higher-res
models clearly depict at least localized damaging wind
potential...especially if a robust outflow surge is able to
develop along the leading edge of this activity. While the main
severe storm threat should largely wane by 12-1 AM, our entire
CWA could see at least isolated/scattered thunderstorms through
the remainder of the night as the aforementioned mid level
shortwave disturbance tracks into our area.

In other departments tonight, while widespread clouds/convection
should keep legitimate fog at bay, winds will become lighter out
of the north-northeast late in the night, as low temps are
forecast to fall into the mid-upper 60s most areas, except low
70s far south-southeast.


- FRIDAY DAYTIME:
As the upper disturbance passes over our CWA during the morning
(possibly in the form of a very well-defined mesoscale
convective vortex/MCV), at least spotty/isolated showers and
possibly a few lingering weak thunderstorms will be possible
almost anywhere initially post-sunrise, but departing east with
time. In fact, most all of our CWA should be dry during the
afternoon, as cloudy/mostly cloudy skies give way to at least
partly cloudy skies in the afternoon. As a weak surface low
passes by to our southeast, winds will generally be light
(mainly 5-10 MPH) out of some variation of northerly. As for
high temps, most of our CWA should be at least a few degrees
cooler than today...but especially areas near/south of the KS
border (5-10 degrees cooler than today). More specifically,
highs ranging from low-mid 80s north...to mid 80s central to
upper 80s-low 90s near/south of the state line. While especially
Mitchell County KS could again reach/slightly exceed 100+ heat
index, these values should be just short of justifying another
Heat Advisory.


- FRIDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
Fairly high confidence that the vast majority of our CWA remains
dry/storm-free through at least Midnight. However, the late
night hours brings yet another chance for at least
isolated/scattered storms...probably most favoring the
western/southern halves of our CWA. While very spotty severe
cannot be totally ruled out (in fact SPC has nearly our entire
CWA in a "broad brushed" Marginal Risk...this setup does not
appear as concerning as the preceding few nights. Low temps very
similar to tonight (mid 60s to low 70).


- SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT:
Our "rinse and repeat" pattern continues, as while especially
the morning will likely feature lingering showers/weak storms as
the next upper disturbance departs, the afternoon and even
evening is probably dry/mostly dry as we reside "in between"
disturbances (our rain chances/PoPs are admittedly likely too
high for the afternoon-evening). However, various models
(including the RRFS) do depict a fairly good chance for more
widespread rain/thunderstorms post-midnight...again possibly
featuring at least a spotty severe threat (our entire CWA again
under a broad-brushed Marginal Risk from SPC).

Temperature-wise, highs are aimed very similar to Friday (mainly
80s in Nebraska and low-mid 90s in KS...with ONE FINAL day of
100+ heat index potential mainly in our KS counties. Lows
Saturday night mainly mid-upper 60s. |


- SUNDAY-MONDAY:
Although spotty/intermittent chances for showers/storms remain,
they are lower and less widespread than the preceding few days,
as our flow aloft turns more west-northwesterly in the wake of
the Saturday night disturbance. Still think we may be aiming a
little too cool on high temps, but they have trended up slightly
from 24 hours ago. No matter what, they will be cooler than
Saturday, with most of the CWA topping out upper 70s-mid 80s.


- TUESDAY-THURSDAY:
Obviously far too soon to dive into details, but MOST of this
time frame looks dry, despite continued/intermittent (and fairly
low...mainly 30% or lower) chances for showers/storms. Our high
temperatures again may not be aimed quite warm enough according
to some of the latest "raw" numerical guidance, but for now we
are calling for mainly 80s all three days, with any lower 90s
most favored Tuesday especially near/south of the KS line.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 637 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Showers (and possibly a thunderstorm) are expected this morning.
Most of the afternoon and evening will be dry before showers and
storms possibly return around or just after 06z. MVFR to IFR
ceilings are generally expected through the morning hours then
will become VFR during/by the afternoon. Low ceilings are
expected to return this evening into tonight. Winds will mainly
be light and variable.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schuldt
DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Schuldt