047
FXUS63 KGID 201732
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1132 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread fog this morning, with dense fog possible around sunrise
  behind a frontal passage.

- Rain lifts north into the area during the late afternoon-
  evening hours and continues throughout the daytime hours on
  Friday.

- Rainfall accumulations range from 0.5-1" across the southern
  third of the area, 0.25-0.5" across central portions, and a
  Trace-few hundredths possible north of Highway 92.

- Pleasant weather this weekend with highs in the 60s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 313 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Widespread fog has developed across the forecast area this morning.
For the most part visibilities have remained around 2-5 miles, with
only localized or brief instances of dense fog. Cameras across the
area show that the fog is fairly shallow, and not supportive of
widespread dense fog. The biggest potential for dense fog this
morning is behind a weak front currently across northern Nebraska,
moving south into the area. A majority of HREF members show a band
of dense fog that moves south into the area with the frontal
passage. While northerly winds behind the front are less favorable
for fog development, moisture/dewpoints increase behind the front,
which would be supportive for more dense/thicker fog. If a band of
dense fog develops behind the front, an advisory will likely be
needed (mainly across south central Nebraska). Fog should gradually
clear by the late morning hours. Low stratus is also expected to
move in behind the front, which will help to limit daytime heating,
with highs in the 50s.

A shortwave trough and associated surface low lift into the Central
Plains this afternoon-evening. A band of stratiform rain slowly
lifts north during the PM hours, reaching the NE-KS border during
the evening hours, and reaching I-80 overnight. Little northward
movement is expected from the rain band on Friday, as it sits across
the southern half of the forecast area (along/south of Highway 6).
Rain gradually ends from west to east Friday afternoon-evening as
the low moves into the Mississippi Valley. This system looks to
bring a fairly widespread 0.5-1" of rainfall to north central
Kansas and our southernmost row of Nebraska counties. Rain
accumulations will likely have a sharp gradient/drop in rainfall
totals north of I-80, with areas north of Highway 92 unlikely
to see more than a Trace to few hundredths of rain. The Tri-
Cities and central Third of the forecast area will see around
0.25-0.5" of rain by Friday evening.

Otherwise the forecast remains largely on track this weekend into
early next week. Sunshine returns to the area this weekend, with
highs around 60, making for a very pleasant weekend weather-wise. A
low moves into the Plains on Monday, bringing another chance for
rain to the area, with the highest chances along and southeast of
the Tri-Cities. A cold front dives through the area Tuesday-
Wednesday bringing much cooler air to the area (highs in the 30s-low
40s).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Fog was a little more widespread and thick across the area this
morning than previously anticipated. By late morning, most
locations were fog free and partly sunny skies (with lots of
high level cloud cover) returned to the region.

For tonight...expect another potential round of fog to develop
across the local area after midnight, as light winds along with
at least partial clearing are anticipated across the region.
While some models like the HRRR are indicating the fog will be
more widespread to start the day on Thursday, confidence is not
overly high as while the winds are light they also look to have
a westerly (downslope and less favorable) component. As a
result, included the potential for patchy dense fog both in the
forecast as well as in the HWO, but opted against a headline
this early as it may end up being more patchy than some models
suggest. Will need to play this by ear and see how things end up
developing this evening/early night to see if a dense fog
advisory once again becomes necessary.

Otherwise, after at least a bit of fog to start the day on
Thursday, the focus will turn to the upper level low currently
circulating near the eastern California/southern Nevada border.
While we have had our eyes on this system for several days,
models are now swinging this area of low pressure further north
towards the local area by Thursday evening as an upper level
trough moves across the Great Lakes Region. This means the main
band of precip should set up a bit further north, and areas
along and south of I-80 are now favored to see some measurable
rainfall. While there still will be a tight gradient in the band
of precip that develops, confidence is increasing that the tri-
cities could receive between 0.25-0.50" (about a 50% chance).
The good news is that this system is relatively warm, and any
precip locally should fall as rain through Friday afternoon.
With the clouds and rain, however, Friday will likely remain on
the cooler side, with some locations likely not climbing out of
the 40s.

After a cool/unsettled end to the week, a beautiful weekend
continues to appear on tap for the local area. Behind Fridays
exiting upper level low, ridging aloft is anticipated over the
weekend as the next upper level low across the desert southwest
slowly rounds the base of the longwave trough. As heights rise,
so should temperatures, with mostly sunny skies and above normal
temperatures expected both days. As a bonus, with a weak
pressure gradient under the upper level ridge, surface winds
should also be light, with afternoon breezes likely less than 10
MPH.

As with the first system Tomorrow night/Friday, the trajectory
of the subsequent upper level low early next week has trended
further north in both the operational runs of the GFS/EC.
Therefore, while official pops with this system are on the low
side (10-30%), they may ultimately be too low as the vast
majority of the EC ensemble members are indicating measurable
precipitation along with about 50% of the members of the GFS.
Again, given the origin of this system, the chance of any snow
early next week looks low. Beyond this system, however, the
upper level ridge breaks down, and much cooler air and an active
weather pattern in progressive northwest flow returns to the
area Thanksgiving eve and beyond. Still too early to predict the
first measurable snow, but things are looking more promising
towards the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1115 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Generally poor conditions...with LIFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS will
persist for another couple of hours before LIFR CIGS scatter
out and a few hours of VFR conditions (with lots of high level
clouds) returns around 20/21Z. CIGS will again thicken up this
evening as a disturbance approaches from the southwest, with
MVFR CIGS returning by 21/03Z...with some light rain and reduced
VSBYS becoming possible around daybreak.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for NEZ046>049-060>064-
     073>077.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...SR
AVIATION...SR