952
FXUS63 KGID 222327
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
627 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated light showers will be possible this evening for our
  far northern CWA (mainly Valley, Greeley, and northern
  Nance), with more scattered rain arriving near the dawn hours
  on WED primarily east of HWY 183.

- More widespread rain chances arrive Wednesday night and
  are expected to take us into Saturday. A marginal flash flood
  risk is in place for Thursday.

- Wednesday and Friday will be breezier, with gusts of 25 - 30
  mph possible.

- Highs Wednesday through Friday will range from the mid 60s to
  mid 70s. Temperatures this weekend continue to uptrend, with
  highs expected to reach the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

.Today and Tonight...
Isolated pockets of light showery activity will remain possible
for our far northeastern CWA (mainly Valley, Greeley, and
northern Nance) as a shortwave trough and associated jet streak
exits NE to the southeast. Overnight tonight, a roughly north-
south oriented band of scattered showers is anticipated to
develop east of HWY 183 as 850-mb warm air advection increases
coincident with a 40-kt LLJ over west-central NE. Lows tonight
will range from the low to mid 50s. Latest 18z HRRR and RRFS
guidance attempt to put patchy fog across the CWA, however
confidence remains that this will remain a low stratus deck
given a lack of a surface inversion.

.Wednesday...
Morning showers will gradually clear out around midday
Wednesday. High temperatures will range between the low-to-upper
70s. Daytime hours will likely be breezy, with our western to
northwestern CWA able to see gusts of 25 - 30 mph as some of the
leftover LLJ mixes down to the surface. Around sundown
Wednesday evening, the next 500- mb mid-level jet streak will
start to impinge on our CWA, overlying a redeveloping LLJ / warm
air advection regime. This will begin to set off a more
extended period of on-and-off rainfall through early this
weekend. There remains some uncertainty as to exactly when rain
will get going in our area, with most 12z CAMs suggesting later
in the night to early Wednesday morning, while the 12z GFS and
Euro try to start rain in the late evening hours. The best
chances for precip (60 - 80%) on Wednesday night look to hold
north of I-80. Increasing cloud cover associated with this
developing pattern will hold overnight lows between the upper
50s to low 60s across the CWA.

.Thursday...
Continued southerly low-level flow beneath a stationary mid-
level jet will maintain moisture transport to the north-central
Plains through Thursday, allowing for our repeating bouts of
rain. This rain is anticipated to remain almost exclusively
stratiform in nature, as most 12z guidance suggests minimal-to-
no CAPE for showers to work with. Despite no real convective
elements, 1 - 1.5+ inches of rain will be possible simply
because of the duration of precip. WPC currently holds us in a
level 1 marginal risk for exceeding flash flood guidance on
Thursday.

.Friday and Beyond...
Latest 12z EPS and GEFS guidance suggest that sometime early
Friday morning the first stationary jet maximum will get pulled
off to the east by the south-central CONUS ridge, while the next
jet in the wave train sets back up over NE. As this next mid-
level wave arrives and gradually passes, our on-and-off precip
chances will continue through Saturday. Friday afternoon
currently looks best for some thunder to mix in with rain as the
12z RRFS and 12z GFS both try to develop a small bit of MLCAPE
over our area Friday afternoon in association with the trough
aloft. Aside from precip, surface winds will likely spike again
during the daylight hours on Friday with gusts across the CWA
able to reach 25 - 30 mph once more.

While trends will continue to be monitored, models have
remained consistent that our precip-dominated pattern will end
around Saturday morning, giving way to a dry but relatively
warmer weekend. As a potential worst-case scenario through the
event, 13z NBM 95th percentile cumulative rainfall totals by
Saturday morning sit right around 2.5 - 3.25 inches. Projected
temperatures for this weekend have continued to uptrend rather
substantially, with latest indications of widespread upper 70s
to even mid 80s for our KS counties. Still, confidence remains
that heat indices will not be a concern.

Finally, while a ways out still, let`s keep an eye on next
Monday night into Tuesday for a potential return to organized
thunderstorms. A more classic longwave trough may arrive in the
CONUS late next Monday based on the latest GEFS and EPS alike,
which may allow for a more seasonal thunderstorm setup. Trends
will be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

IFR-LIFR conditions possible after midnight, with IFR conditions
lingering into the early afternoon hours on Wednesday. Ceilings
are currently VFR and look to remain VFR through midnight. After
midnight, IFR ceilings move in from the northeast, likely
impacting KGRI first then KEAR. During the early morning hours,
scattered showers are likely to develop in the area, and linger
through the late morning hours. In/around these showers,
ceilings may lower to LIFR. There is some guidance supporting
more widespread/prevailing LIFR, but confidence is too low to
include a prevailing group at this time. For now have indicated
this shower/LIFR potential with a PROB30 group. IFR ceilings
gradually lift out of the area late Wednesday morning-Wednesday
afternoon though it could linger longer than currently depicted.
Once IFR ceilings lift out of the area, VFR conditions are
expected through the end of the TAF period.

East-southeast winds shift to the southeast overnight, with
sustained winds around 10-15kts. After sunrise, winds increase
further with sustained winds around 15kts and gusts of 20-25kts
during the afternoon hours, strongest at KEAR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Began
AVIATION...Davis