327
FXUS63 KGID 232332
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
632 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional showers/t-storms tonight, then drying out for the
  weekend.

- Extreme heat returns this weekend into early next week.

- Low chances (20-30%) for rain return Tuesday-Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Light showers linger across portions of the area late this
morning and will gradually clear from west to east this
afternoon. Like yesterday, lingering cloud cover will keep
temperatures on the cooler side...only topping out in the low
70s across much of central Nebraska. This is a large departure
from western Kansas where mostly clear skies will allow highs
to approach 100 degrees in many areas.

This evening, convection is expected to develop over western
Kansas. Initially, convective parameters would favor a few of
these storms becoming strong to severe. These storms should
generally weaken as they move northeastward into our area later
in the evening hours, but some sub-severe hail cannot be ruled
out in portions of northern Kansas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms persist into Friday morning. In all, some
locations could see an additional 1.00-1.50", but most spots
likely will only see 0.25" or less. These showers are
anticipated to clear by mid morning, resulting in a drier and
warmer afternoon for Friday.

This warming trend continues into the weekend as upper level
ridging builds over the central CONUS. Temperatures likely reach
the 90s across the entire area Saturday, with some locations
approaching 100 degrees on both Sunday and Monday. Heat index
values near 105 degrees are likely (50% chance) in at least
some areas on Saturday, and are a near certainty (80%) on
Sunday/Monday. Some areas (especially the eastern half) could
even see heat index values exceed 110 degrees on Sunday/Monday
(40-50% chance). If these trends hold, heat headlines are likely
to be issued on upcoming shifts.

The upper ridge weakens with a few disturbances by the middle of
next week. As such, temperatures trend a bit cooler with some
chances for rain. That said, meaningful rain is far from a
guarantee at this point. Many global ensemble members maintain
dry or mostly dry conditions for the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

IFR-LIFR CIGS expected tonight-Friday morning. SCT-BKN MVFR
stratus will continue throughout the evening hours, with
conditions bouncing between VFR and MVFR. After midnight,
scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms move into the
area. As rain impacts the area, MVFR stratus becomes prevailing
and steadily lowers, becoming IFR and eventually LIFR around
sunrise. LIFR stratus will linger into the mid-morning hours,
but CIGS will gradually rise during the late morning-afternoon,
becoming VFR by the end of the TAF period. Have used PROB30
groups to outline the timeframe where storms are most likely, as
well as the potential for IFR/LIFR CIGS in storms.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Davis