344
FXUS63 KGID 271130
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
530 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather for Thanksgiving. Increasing winds on Friday,
  with only a few flurries.

- Precipitation returns late Friday night as a mixture of rain
  and freezing rain. This transitions to snow as temperatures
  crash Saturday morning. Area roads may become slick.

- Areas northeast of a line from Ord to grand Island to Geneva
  have a 30 to 50 percent chance of seeing over 4" of snow.
  Areas further southwest may only see a dusting to around 1".

- Strong northwest winds (gusts over 40 MPH possible) will lead
  to blowing snow through the day Saturday.

- There is a low chance (20%) for light snow again Monday,
  although this is not expected to be as impactful.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 401 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

The primary change overnight was to introduce freezing rain to
the forecast for late Friday night. Many deterministic models
(NAM, ECMWF, NAMnest, RAP, HRRR) continue to hint at a period of
rain and freezing rain before colder air arrives Saturday
morning. It is uncertain exactly where the the "line" between
rain and freezing rain will occur, but right now the most likely
area for freezing rain is along or just north of I-80.
Subsurface temperatures remain above freezing (around 40
degrees per the Nebraska Mesonet), but many roads (especially
bridges) may still ice up even before snow begins Saturday
morning.

Precipitation should transition to all-snow around or shortly
after sunrise on Saturday. The heaviest snow is expected 6am to
noon on Saturday, gradually tapering off and ending in the
afternoon or early evening.

Snow totals have not changed dramatically, although there
continues to be quite a spread amongst deterministic/ensemble
guidance. Some models (namely the NAM and NAMnest) produce just
a dusting for most of the area, while many global
models show a large swath of 2-4" (or more) over eastern parts
of the area. What remains consistent is that northeastern
portions of the area will be most favored to see impactful snow
accumulation. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect further
northeast where there is higher confidence in 4-5" snow totals.

Forecast wind speeds have decreased a bit, but gusts around 40
MPH are still more than sufficient to produce blowing snow are
still sufficient to produce blowing snow. If trends continue, a
additional winter headlines will likely be issued in the coming
days due to a combination of ice, snow, and blowing snow.

Long story short, Saturday is not a great day for travel through
central and eastern Nebraska. If you must travel, be prepared
and check back often for the latest forecast.

Sunday is favored to be dry (and cold). The system for Sunday
night into Monday continues to look rather weak, with only minor
additional snowfall accumulation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Today and Tonight...

Temperatures this afternoon are sitting below their climatological
normals, in the upper 30s to low 40s. A passing disturbance brings a
chance for sprinkles/flurries this evening southwest of the Tri-
Cities, but dry air near the surface will inhibit/prevent
accumulations. Lows tonight drop into the mid teens to mid 20s under
mostly cloudy skies.

Thanksgiving...

Overall, Thanksgiving Day looks to be quiet weather-wise as the area
sits under northwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures will be near to
slightly below normal, with highs in the low to mid 40s and partly
to mostly sunny skies.

Friday and Saturday...

Southerly flow strengthens over the area on Friday ahead of an
approaching trough. Highs on Friday range from the upper 30s across
northeastern portions of the area to the upper 40s across the
southwest. Southerly winds will be breezy, gusting 25-30mph. Models
remain consistent in keeping the initial wave of precipitation
northeast of the area, resulting in dry weather during the
daytime hours on Friday.

This quickly changes Friday night as the trough and surface low move
into the Plains. The low will be centered over Kansas Friday night-
Saturday morning, with a warm front residing along the NE/KS border.
PoPs increase after midnight as precipitation fills in around
the low. As it does, cold air wraps into the system with a
transition from rain to snow Saturday morning. This could result
in a brief period of mixed precipitation, and could result in
slick roads when combined with dropping temperatures. Winds
gusts quickly ramp Saturday morning along the backside of the
low. Northwest winds gusting 35-45mph are expected during the
daytime hours on Saturday. Gusty winds combined with any falling
snow will result in poor visibility for those
outdoors/traveling. Snow ends from west to east late Saturday
morning-evening as the system moves into the Midwest. Most of
the area will see a dusting to an inch of snow. Eastern-
Northeastern portions of the area are most likely to see 1" or
more of snowfall, with the least accumulations west of Highway
183. Given the holiday weekend and increased travel it`s worth
repeating that those traveling on Saturday will experience poor
visibility in falling snow.

Uncertainties:

The biggest uncertainties with the forecast are how quickly
precipitation wraps around the low, and how much snowfall will occur
across eastern portions of the area. The high and low end scenarios
for precipitation coverage can be seen well when comparing the
GFS/NAM to the ECMWF/GDPS. The 12z GFS/NAM show light rain/snow
Friday night-Saturday morning. A band of heavier snow then develops
during the mid morning hours on Saturday across eastern/northeastern
portions of the area which exits the area Saturday afternoon. This
scenario would result in most of the forecast area seeing less than
an inch of snow, with 1" possible mainly along/east of Highway 81.
The heavier solution as shown by the 12z ECMWF/GDPS would see a band
of heavier snow develop by sunrise and be further west. This would
result in more widespread chances to see 1" of snow, with far
eastern portions of the area seeing 2-3" of snow. It`s also worth
noting that GFS/ECMWF/GDPS ensembles have shown a gradual westward
shift in the chance for 3" of snow (10-20% chance along/east of
Highway 81). There is still plenty of time for things to change, so
keep a close eye on the forecast, especially for those traveling on
Saturday.

Sunday Onwards....

Cold air will be in place over the area Sunday morning, with lows in
the single digits to low teens and wind chill values near to below
zero! Highs on Sunday only climb into the 20s. The next shortwave
moves into the plains Sunday night Monday. Models continue to show
that any snow that does fall with this system will remain light (a
dusting), and be most likely along/south of the NE-KS border. Sub-
zero wind chills are possible again Monday morning, with highs once
again confined to the 20s. Dry weather is expected on Tuesday with
highs climbing above freezing.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 529 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence (95%) in VFR conditions through the period.
Midlevel clouds move out this morning, leaving a few high clouds
for most of the daytime hours. Additional midlevel clouds move
in tonight.

Winds remain light through the period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mangels
DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Mangels