276
FXUS63 KGID 211922
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
222 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated light showers will remain possible from now
  through Wednesday. Thunderstorm chances look extremely low.

- More widespread persistent rain arrives late Wednesday
  night,lasting likeliest through Saturday morning. Some breaks
  in the rain are expected.

- Wednesday will be the breeziest day upcoming, with a few gust
  to30 mph north and west of Kearney.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures in mid 70s to mid 80s return
  for this weekend. Highest temps will be in KS. No heat index
  concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

.Today and Tonight...
Scattered light rain chances will continue particularly across
our northeastern CWA as a small vort max and associated jet
streak exits off to the east through late evening. While a rogue
lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out with complete
confidence owing to a small amount of CAPE, precip is expected
to stay predominantly stratiform in nature for this same reason.
Northerly winds of 5 - 10 mph will keep temperatures cooler in
the 60s to low 70s on the Nebraska side with relatively higher
temps in the upper 70s for our Kansas counties through the rest
of the day. Overnight, winds will shift slightly to east-
northeasterly, and an isolated light shower will remain possible
mainly south and west of Kearney and Hastings. Misty conditions
will also be possible overnight and into Tuesday morning
(mainly for our northern counties up near Ord) owing to
saturated low levels, but no fog-like reductions in visibility
are expected from this. Lows tonight will span from the low to
upper 50s across our area from north to south, respectively.

.Tuesday...
Temps on Tuesday will stay in the mid 60s to low 70s. Isolated
light showers remain in the forecast mainly for our northwestern
CWA as mid-level flow rounds the crest of a low-amplitude
ridge. The best timeframe for light precip looks to be in the
evening hours as the LLJ begins to refire out over western
Nebraska. Latest 12z HREF guidance suggests that Tuesday night`s
LLJ will reach up to 35+ kts. This, coupled with low-level warm
air advection, is progged to provide enough lift for a couple
rounds of showers Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.
Lightning potential remains uncertain with this overnight
activity, with the 12z HRRR suggesting MUCAPE on the order of
200 - 300 J/kg, while the 12z RRFS keeps instability at
virtually zero. Regardless, there is high confidence in no
strong to severe activity. Overnight lows will again stay in the
low to upper 50s.

.Wednesday...
Isolated to scattered light showers will remain possible
through morning and early afternoon on Wednesday as
southeasterly surface winds beneath southwesterly flow aloft
return on the backside of Tuesday`s ridge. During the daylight
hours, best chances for precip look to be west of Kearney and
north of I-80. Wind gusts north and west of Kearney can reach 30
mph on Wednesday afternoon. Once we get past sundown on
Wednesday evening, the pattern look to shift towards more
widespread rain as the next persistent jet sits atop our CWA
through Saturday.

.Thursday and Beyond...
Latest EPS and GEFS guidance suggests that after daybreak on
Thursday, a 500-mb jet streak to our north will pull away from
central Nebraska while the northern gradient of a second jet
maximum remains nearly stationary over our area along the crest
of a ridge. Beneath this mid-level jet, repeating bouts of warm-
air advection associated with embedded shortwaves will continue
to provide forcing for multiple rounds of rainfall. Latest
guidance suggests break periods in the rain will be possible,
but any precise timing will need to be ironed out as we get
closer. Indications are that this persistent rain pattern will
likely come to an end around Saturday morning. Total rainfall in
this period of 1 to 1.75 inches will be possible.

Lastly, the weekend is expected to bring back warmer
temperatures yet again, with SAT-through-MON highs in the mid to
upper 70s on the Nebraska side, and the low-to-mid 80s on the
Kansas side (13z NBM guidance indicates 20 - 30% chances for our
KS counties to see weekend highs >85 F). Thankfully, there is
high confidence that heat indices will not be a concern.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Ceilings are expected to become low-end VFR this afternoon but
MVFR ceilings are expected by 00z. Ceilings will likely drop to
IFR later tonight and will improve a little by 18z Tuesday but
will remain sub VFR. A few showers may develop and move across
the terminals, especially later this afternoon into this
evening, but will have little to no impact. Winds will
generally be out of the north through this afternoon and will
become easterly by 18z Tuesday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Began
AVIATION...Schuldt