386
FXUS63 KGID 101154
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
654 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread stratus and some light fog is being observed across
  the local area this morning. Could see a few pockets of denser
  fog develop around sunrise north of I-80, but widespread dense
  fog is not expected.

- A few showers remain possible across north central Kansas this
  morning/early afternoon, with a better chance for some high
  plains convection clipping the area this evening. A marginal
  risk for severe weather is expected, with a few strong to
  marginally severe storms not out of the question tonight.

- A much better chance for thunderstorms returns to the local
  area Wednesday evening and continues off and on through the
  upcoming weekend. A few strong or severe thunderstorms will
  be possible - especially Wednesday evening.

- Temperatures today and Tuesday will range from the upper 80s
  to low 100s. The warmest temperatures along with heat index
  values over 100 degrees will be focused across locations near
  and south of the NE/KS state line.

- More seasonable temperatures (mid 80s to near 90) return
  Wednesday afternoon with seasonably cool temperatures (70s and
  80s) expected Thursday through at least next Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

A few weak showers and thunderstorms impacted areas mainly near
and south of the Nebraska/Kansas state line late Sunday evening,
with most of this activity having dissipated across the area
early this morning. While a few additional light showers can be
expected across mainly our Kansas counties through the late
morning or early afternoon hours, strong or severe thunderstorms
are not expected. Underneath the high level clouds passing
across the area, low level stratus and some light fog has
developed nearly area wide early this morning, and while a few
pockets of dense fog cannot be ruled out towards sunrise, this
does not appear to be a repeat of yesterday, and widespread
thicker fog is not anticipated this morning.

Later today, models indicate another round of high plains
convection developing to our west and approaching the local area
this evening. While the stronger storms should be to our west,
enough instability exists for some high based strong/marginally
severe convection, and a marginal risk for severe weather is
being advertised by SPC for nearly the entire area later today.

Overall, a lull in thunderstorm activity is expected for
Tuesday as temperatures once again peak just over 100 across our
Kansas counties, although a few very isolated late
afternoon/early evening storms again cannot be completely ruled
out. The much better chance for storms comes later in the period
with widespread storms as early as Wednesday evening, some of
which could be severe given the available instability and
marginal shear across the local area as a frontal boundary
stalls near the KS/NE state line. Not surprisingly, a marginal
to slight risk for severe weather is anticipated over this time
period. Beyond Wednesday night, a fairly unsettled/cooler
weather pattern appears to be in store for the local area
through next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026


Scattered convection initializing across the eastern CO/WY and the
western NE border this afternoon will be closely watched as they
track east/southeast through the rest of the evening and nighttime
hours. Though most of these storms will likely be in the stages of
decay by the time they are approaching our western fringe (around 9PM
to 1AM), the potential for a stronger storm to make it into the area
is not entirely zero. The locations most likely receive such storms
would be for areas mainly concentrated south and west of the Tri-
Cities. A similar scenario may play out Monday night as well, though
the focus may be shifted more northward (best potential north and
west of the Tri-Cities).

Given strong, yet elevated instability tonight and Monday (up to
2,000-5,000J/kg of MUCAPE mainly from the contribution of strong mid-
level lapse rates: 8-10C/km), a few of the larger/taller storms
could use this "energy" to be able to maintain through a portion of
the night. The main inhibitor that keeps the chance for widespread
storms and mainly the severe potential more limited, however, would
be from the presence of weaker shear aloft (20-35kts; generally
decreasing through the night). In addition to the weak shear aloft,
the nocturnal low-level jet is also projected to lie just east of
the area (given the placement of the low-level low pressure center),
limiting the potential for further convective initiation. With all that
being said, an isolated severe storm, mainly Monday night, can`t be
ruled out of the realm of possibilities even though the overall
potential appears to be more questionable at this time.

For the forth night in a row, fog remains a strong possibility
overnight into the morning hours on Monday. The latest HREF guidance
continues to have higher than usual confidence for fog potential as
70% of the ensemble members resolve fog with 50% of them showing
patches of dense fog. Virtually the same locations this morning
(areas near and north of I-80) could be targeted again given the
return of similar conditions (light to calm winds with temperatures
and dewpoints approaching the mid 60s).

The heat will return Monday (upper 80 and 90s) and Tuesday (90s to
104 degrees). Heat index values both days should range the mid 90s
to 105 degrees. The greatest heat will generally fall across north
central Kansas. These locations will have the best potential to see
heat index values over 100 degrees as well as the greatest chances
for temperatures to reach/exceed 100 degree (20-40% chance MON & 40-
90% chance TUE). The only factor that has been theorized to knock
high down by a few degrees recently and may continue to do so over
the next few days has been the presence of elevated smoke. Evident
on satellite and from the hazy skies, a few more plumes of elevated
smoke may continue to pass overtop given the northwesterly flow
regime we find the area underneath.  After Tuesday, a cloudier and
wetter (possible stormy) pattern begins to emerge in the forecast.
Highs as a result may reach the 70s again by Friday (60-90% chance
for south central Nebraska & 40-60% chance for north central
Kansas).

The upper-level flow has been gradually returning back to a more
zonal (horizontal: west to east) flow. This pattern is known to be
fairly unstable as passing shortwave disturbances can be more
subtle. Daily storm initiation tends to be more reliant on mesoscale
features that can change more rapidly from day to day (in comparison
to more predictable synoptic-level forcings). As result of this more
unsettled pattern we find the area in, forecast confidence tends to
fall more on the lower-end of the spectrum. Looking ahead at the
trends for the end of the week, the National Blend of Models
(NBM) is suggesting a more stormy pattern where daily
thunderstorm chances return each day. At this point in time, the
level of details that we can provide remain limited given the
higher than usual model uncertainty and lack of consistency
between model runs.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 628 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A layer of fog and low stratus has developed across the area,
with pockets of visibilities less than 1 mile and LIFR
ceilings. This fog is expected to burn after sunrise, though
the low ceilings may take a little longer to lift.

VFR conditions are expected by the early afternoon, as these
low-level clouds continue to lift and scatter out. Light NE will
become more SE this afternoon.

During the overnight hours, both showers/thunderstorms and LLWS
may be possible, though there isn`t enough confidence to
include them in the TAF at this time. First, there is a slight
chance (10-20%) of thunderstorms tonight (mainly between 3-7Z),
as they travel eastward from the Nebraska sandhills. The
uncertainty comes as current model guidance has them dissipating
around the time they reach the terminals. There is also a low
probability of LLWS tonight, mainly between 4-8Z, as a LLJ tries
to get going. Confidence is limited in this hazard due to
uncertainty in the westward extent of the jet.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rossi
DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Scott