851
FXUS63 KGID 292123
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
423 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Current area of scattered preciptiation will continue pushing
  east through the rest of the daytime hours today...with a
  relative lull into the overnight hours for roughly the
  northern half of the forecast area. Additional precipitation
  chances through tonight look to be focus closer to the NE-KS
  state line.

- More widespread precipitation looks to expand across the
  forecast area closer to sunrise Wednesday into the daytime
  hours. During mainly the afternoon-early evening hours, a lull
  in activity pushing north into southern portions of the
  forecast area may allow for better instability to work its way
  in...and its not out of the question a few strong-marginally
  severe storms may develop (mainly near/south of the state
  line).

- By the time this rain event is said and done Thursday...still
  looking at a fairly widespread area of 1-3 inches, with
  embedded higher amounts...but the trend in several models
  today is focus the better chances for the higher amounts
  across SSE portions of the forecast area. Still some
  uncertainties in the exact location of the highest swaths, a
  few models trended notably south. No changes made to the
  area-wide Flood Watch that runs through 7PM Thursday.

- Friday on into early next week still expected to bring relief
  from the rain...with the forecast for Fri-Mon still dry. Highs
  generally remain in the 60s, some overnight lows in the 40s.
  Overall pleasant conditions currently expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Currently...

The first of several rounds of precipitation to impact the
forecast area made its way through the area last night into
early this morning, dropping a swath of roughly 0.25-0.75in
across the NWrn quarter of the forecast area. The next round is
currently working its way northeast across the Central
Plains...and will continue to do so through the rest of the day.
Upper air and satellite data showing these shortwave
disturbances being ejected north east out ahead of the main
western CONUS troughing and low pressure spinning over the
CA/NV/AZ border area...while remnants of Hurricane Polo are
working their way northeast into northern Mexico, providing an
increased moisture source into the overall pattern. At the
surface, it`s an overall weak pattern across the forecast area,
sitting between broad high pressure over the eastern CONUS and
frontal boundary extending southwest from northern MN into the
Desert SW. This is keeping winds generally southerly, and light
around 5-10 MPH.

Tonight through Thursday...

The main story for this 7-day forecast period remains squarely
focused on this short term period through mid-week, with the
entire forecast area getting additional (but not necessarily
welcomed) rainfall...with the potential for quite a gradient
across the area. There hasn`t been any significant changes in
the general evolution of the next couple of days...with models
remaining in good agreement showing the remnants of Polo
becoming increasingly phased into the main upper trough axis/low
sitting over the Desert SW. Through this evening/tonight, while
the main upper low looks to only slide east into the AZ/NM
border region by around 12Z Wed, that shortwave energy left over
from Polo is expected to continue on a northeastward trek out
ahead of the main low...driving the next round of precipitation
chances across our forecast area.

Once the current batch of activity pushes further east...hi-res
models showing a continued lull into tonight, especially across
the northern half of the forecast area. Increased low-mid
level forcing (closer to 850-700mb) will keep better chances
tonight focused across areas near the NE-KS state line...with
some lingering, but important, uncertainties between models with
exactly where that axis sets up...important as that looks to be
the be first heavier band of rain to develop. Closer to, mainly
after 12Z Wednesday, models show that more widespread swath of
precipitation to push north through the forecast area...with the
potential for a more distinct drop off on both the north and
south sides than currently shown in the broader scale forecast.
That could make the afternoon hours a bit more interesting on
the southern side, with models showing a push of better
instability also working its way north with time. Still some
uncertainty with just how far north that lull in precip/better
instability push and sfc frontal boundary gets, but it`s not out
of the question that some additional convective
enhancement/redevelopment occurs...and the southern half of the
forecast area remains in the SPC Day 2 Marginal Risk area. Not
looking at widespread severe weather...but gusty winds/hail
possible, and with a sfc frontal boundary lingering in the area
and more easterly winds, an isolated tornado is a concern as
well. The overall main threat remains with heavy rain...and with
such a good fetch of moisture for this pattern to tap into, any
activity will be efficient rain-makers, even moreso for
anything with any strength...and rates of 1-2 inches per hour is
certaintly not out of the question.

Further into the evening/overnight hours Wednesday and Thursday,
the main push of the upper level system looks to pass through
the Central Plains...again there is still some lingering overall
minor uncertainties with its exact track. Models aren`t in too
bad of agreement showing the upper low filling/weakening as it
passes through during the day on Thursday...with precipitation
chances dropping off fairly quickly during the second half of
the day. Again some lingering uncertainties with exact
timing...but current forecast as all but the far SSE dry by
evening.

By the time its all said and done...still looking at a fairly
widespread area of 2-3 inches, with localized swaths of higher
amounts (potentially much higher depending on the model). One of
the main changes in the models today is with increasing
agreement focusing on the area with the better potential for
those higher amounts (totals closer to 4-5 not out of the
question)...running that axis mainly across the SSErn half of
the forecast area. Some models have a more marked southward
shift in the axis, clipping an even smaller portion of our SSErn
forecast area (showing more of an eastern KS and points NW
issue). A result of both trends...a notably tighter rainfall
gradient from north to south. Especially the further north one
goes from I-80, chances of even getting an additional one inch
drops off quickly...a few models show it may even be a struggle
to get another half-inch through the rest of the event. Areas
roughly I-80 to HWY 6, lot of uncertainty still remains here due
to lingering questions about where the banding sets up as then
main low moves out. Where more of the support for the location
of the heaviest axis currently sits (for the entire event) isn`t
too displaced from the area that picked up 2-5 inches last
week...and with crops not soaking up the moisture anymore, lack
of sun/wind and time...still a lot of saturated area out there
for problems to develop. Made no changes to the Flood Watch that
runs through 7PM Thursday...though depending on how models
trend, if they stick with that more southern focus, possible
that northern portions of the watch could be dropped early.

Friday on into early next week...

Don`t be alarmed by the bright light at the end of the
tunnel...it`s the sun, which will finally make a more widespread
return for the end of the week, along with drier conditions.
With main focus being tonight-Thursday, not a ton of time spent
on Friday through Monday...but the main story is the forecast
for this period is DRY, and currently there continues to be good
agreement between models with that. Overall it`ll feel more
like fall...highs through the weekend are forecast to mainly in
the 60s (some low 70s in KS this weekend), along with some
cooler lows...Fri night-Sat AM currently has widespread mid-
upper 40s. Winds through the weekend remain on the lighter
side...overall looking to be a pleasant stretch of weather.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Main forecast concern through this TAF period remains with
precipitation chances pushing northeast across the region. One
round is currently working its way through the forecast
area...and will continue to bring increased chances through
mid-late afternoon. Models showing the potential for a bit of a
lull this evening...but confidence in the timing of that and how
much of a lull it is isn`t overly high, so kept PROB30 groups
going at both terminal sites. The next best chances look to
start swinging north into the terminal areas after sunrise
Wednesday through the end of this period. Expecting ceilings to
drop this evening/overnight, with LIFR conditions not out of the
question. Winds through the period are light...generally
southerly this afternoon, turning more variable overnight, then
more easterly after sunrise Wed.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for NEZ039>041-046>049-
     060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP