564
FXUS63 KGID 161128
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
628 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably warm and windy today with highs in the 70s-low 80s
  and winds gusting 30-40mph.

- Multiple rounds of showers/storms possible across far western portions
  of the area during the day, with chances moving east
  overnight as a cold front moves through the area.

- Cooler and windy weather arrives behind a cold frontal passage Saturday
  afternoon, with winds gusting to 40mph.

- The first chance for frost this season arrives Sunday morning
  as lows sink into the 30s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Today...

Temperatures this morning are sitting in the 60s under mostly clear
skies. Aloft, a trough is centered over the Rockies, with a ridge
over the Midwest. Strong southerly flow is expected today, ushering
in another warm day across the area. Highs will be in the mid 70s to
low 80s across the area, coolest west of Highway 183 where cloud
coverage will be more robust. Windy weather is also expected, with
gusts of 30-40mph throughout much of the morning-afternoon.

As the surface low shifts into the Plains this morning, a cold front
will move into western/southwestern Nebraska. Multiple rounds of
showers/storms are possible across western portions of the forecast
area today as showers/storms develop along and ahead of the front.
The first round(s) arrive this morning, with additional rounds
arriving during the afternoon hours, and a final, more widespread
round during the evening-overnight hours as the cold front moves
through the forecast area. A few of the storms during the afternoon-
evening hours could be on the stronger side (small hail, gusty
winds) given favorable shear (50+kts) and marginal CAPE (500 J/Kg).
That being said, the best instability will reside west of the area
and storms may struggle to maintain strength as the enter the
forecast area. Storms are expected to decrease in coverage as they
move east overnight, with the potential for areas east of Highway 81
to see little or no rain at all. Most areas will see rain
accumulations of 0.25-0.5" or less, but far western portions of the
area (w of Hwy 183) that have multiple rounds of storms could see 1-
2" of rain.

Friday...

Any lingering rain comes to an end Friday morning as the cold front
moves east of the area. Friday will be cooler, but still seasonably
warm with highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s. Sunny skies and light
winds make for a pleasant October day overall. Lows Friday night
will be in the low 40s to low 50s.


Saturday and Sunday...

A shortwave trough over Saskatchewan will dive into the Midwest and
deepen on Saturday. This will push another cold front to the area,
and usher in a much cooler airmass. Highs on Saturday vary depending
on the cold frontal passage, ranging from the low 60s in the north
to the mid 60s in the south. Gusty northerly winds are also expected
behind the frontal passage, with winds gusting 30-40mph.

High pressure moves over the area Saturday night-Sunday morning, and
the much cooler airmass brings the first chance for frost to the
area this season. Clear skies and light winds will allow for
temperatures to drop into the 30s across the area. Areas northwest
of the Tri-Cities will be the coolest, with current forecast lows of
31-34 degrees along and north of a Lexington to Ord line. After a
cold start to the morning, a dry airmass and southwesterly winds
will help temperatures climb into the 60s Sunday afternoon.

Monday Onwards....

Above normal temperatures are expected on Monday ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough, with highs in the upper 60s to upper
70s. A cold front associated with the aforementioned shortwave will
bring a very low (15%) chance for rain to the area Monday. Dry air
should keep any rain accumulations very light. Northwesterly flow
sets up over the area through the rest of the forecast period. This
will result in seasonable temperatures, with highs in the 60s and
lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Outside of Monday`s low chance for
rain, the forecast is dry across the area Friday afternoon onwards.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

LLWS will come to an end by the mid-morning hours as southerly
winds quickly increase at the surface. Sustained winds around
20kts and gusts around 30kts are expected during the late
morning-afternoon hours. Winds gradually decrease this evening,
becoming light and variable around midnight as a cold front
moves through KGRI/KEAR.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible during the late
afternoon-overnight hours along and ahead of a cold front.
Storms are more likely at KEAR, but can`t be ruled out at KGRI.
Have maintained a PROB30 group to indicate this potential. Sub-
VFR conditions are possible in stronger storms, otherwise VFR
conditions are expected.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Davis