872
FXUS63 KGID 031148
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
548 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front moves through the area this morning from the
  north to south, bringing gusty northerly winds (up to 25MPH)
  with a few sporadic period of flurries possible.

- Highs this afternoon will drop around 10-15 degrees compared
  to yesterday (upper 20s to mid 30s) with overnight lows mainly
  in the single digits. A handful of Nebraska areas east of
  HWY-281 could see temperatures drop a few degrees below zero.

- Though the 7-day forecast remains dry, a few weak passing
  waves could be able to toss in a few flurries to brief
  periods of light snow showers near the end of the week to next
  week.

- Temperatures for the rest of the forecast, beyond Tuesday and
  Sunday (20s/30s), will mainly lie in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025


An arctic cold front, soon passing south and through the area later
this morning, will chop highs today to the upper 20s (areas north of
I-80) up to the mid 30s (North Central Kansas areas). Northerly
turning winds, gusting up to 25MPH, will indicate the onset rush of
this dry, arctic airmass. These winds will slowly lighten through the
evening and nighttime hours as the front pulls down and away, leaving
behind high surface pressure in its wake. A few flurries can`t be
ruled out this morning to early afternoon, especially along to just
behind the front given saturated low-levels (evident by the low
hanging stratus deck). Accumulating snow, however, will not be
expected.

Beyond the shifting winds and flurry potential this morning behind
the front, temperatures overnight tonight will likely fall to their
lowest point of the season to date. Lows tonight are projected to
range the single digits to just below zero degrees. Areas south and
west of the Tri-Cities will see temperatures drop as low as the mid
single digits to low teens with places along and northeast of the
Tri-Cities in the low to mid single digits. A handful of Nebraska
places east of HWY-281 may even see temperatures reach a few degrees
under zero (as low as -4 degrees). These overnight lows will likely
become the coldest temperatures that the area sees for at least the
week. Though winds will become light tonight into Thursday morning,
wind chill values could still drop to as low as -14 to 4
degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Have had a mix of sun and high clouds today, which combined with
the variance in snow depth, has led to a wide range in
temperatures this afternoon. Southwestern areas have seen more
sunshine and melted what little snow there was, which has
allowed highs to jump into the lower 50s on steady SW breezes.
However, the NE half of the forecast area has been under more
persistent high clouds and "deeper" snowcover, leaving temps
only on the mid 30s to mid 40s - lowest along the Hwy 81
corridor where snow depth remains highest. Will continue to see
high clouds stream into the area this evening, but otherwise,
expect a quiet evening with seasonable temps.

Later tonight, another Arctic cold front will blast through the
forecast area from N to S - generally in the 06Z-12Z time frame.
This front will bring another surge of cold air to the region
for Wednesday, along with blustery Nrly winds gusting around
20-30 MPH. Will likely also see some areas of flurries off and
on behind the frontal passage until around midday. Shouldn`t
take much to squeeze out some flakes given the strong cold air
advection, steep boundary layer lapse rates, and LCLs/stratus
deck temps near or within favored dendritic growth temps of -12C
to -18C. The magnitude of the CAA will tend to stymie the
diurnal temp curve, so will likely see steady or even falling
temperatures by early afternoon for all but perhaps our southern
tier of KS counties. Falling temps and blustery N winds will
cause wind chills only in the single digits to teens for
Nebraska counties by mid-afternoon, and teens-lower 20s in KS.

A seasonably strong high pressure center - nearing around +2
standard deviations for early December - will move down the
Missouri River Wednesday night. The timing and track of the high
pressure center will likely spare our forecast area from a total
bottoming out of temps like further E (double digits below zero
likely E NE into IA!), but it`ll still be quite cold with Thu AM
lows falling into the single digits. Areas along Hwy 81 with the
deeper snow cover and slower onset of return Srly flow may even
fall a few degrees below zero. Expect just enough of a breeze to
cause wind chills to remain below zero for most of the area
through the AM bus stop Thu AM.

The rest of the forecast looks to feature variable temperatures
and a couple low-end chances for light precipitation under fast NW
upper flow. Multiple systems will swing through the region in
the Day 3-7 portion of the forecast, but it appears we`ll be
favored to remain mostly on the drier, SW side of the systems
with not a lot of deep moisture to work with. Short of a
significant southwestward shift in the primary storm track/"wave
train", even if we do get in on some of the precipitation, it`ll
be on the light side and tend to favor our northeast zones most.
These waves are notoriously difficult to time out more than
24-48 hours in advance, but just know there will be a "train" of
weak upper disturbances from the Dakotas into the Mid MS Valley
essentially each day later this week and into the weekend.
Temperatures will fluctuate accordingly (mild ahead of a
wave/front, cooler behind it) with overall specifics also
depending on timing. Per the 12Z EPS, appears Sunday is the most
likely period for a drop in temps in what otherwise should be a
gradually warming period with gradually melting snow.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 537 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Low-end MVFR ceilings (around 1,500ft) will be in place much of
the day (through 21-0z). The latest NBM prob guidance suggest a
25% chance for KEAR and a 40% chance for KGRI to temporarily
see IFR ceilings around 15z. These low-level stratus mark the
passage of a cold front that leaves northerly winds in place
today blowing between 10-15kts with gusts as high as 20-25kts
through around 22z. Winds winding down in the evening will
become light and variable overnight, later turning directions
clockwise and back around to the south as higher pressure
infiltrates in behind the front. There is a low-end chance of
flurries falling before or just after noon today.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stump
DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Stump