


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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564 FXUS63 KGID 161128 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 628 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably warm and windy today with highs in the 70s-low 80s and winds gusting 30-40mph. - Multiple rounds of showers/storms possible across far western portions of the area during the day, with chances moving east overnight as a cold front moves through the area. - Cooler and windy weather arrives behind a cold frontal passage Saturday afternoon, with winds gusting to 40mph. - The first chance for frost this season arrives Sunday morning as lows sink into the 30s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Today... Temperatures this morning are sitting in the 60s under mostly clear skies. Aloft, a trough is centered over the Rockies, with a ridge over the Midwest. Strong southerly flow is expected today, ushering in another warm day across the area. Highs will be in the mid 70s to low 80s across the area, coolest west of Highway 183 where cloud coverage will be more robust. Windy weather is also expected, with gusts of 30-40mph throughout much of the morning-afternoon. As the surface low shifts into the Plains this morning, a cold front will move into western/southwestern Nebraska. Multiple rounds of showers/storms are possible across western portions of the forecast area today as showers/storms develop along and ahead of the front. The first round(s) arrive this morning, with additional rounds arriving during the afternoon hours, and a final, more widespread round during the evening-overnight hours as the cold front moves through the forecast area. A few of the storms during the afternoon- evening hours could be on the stronger side (small hail, gusty winds) given favorable shear (50+kts) and marginal CAPE (500 J/Kg). That being said, the best instability will reside west of the area and storms may struggle to maintain strength as the enter the forecast area. Storms are expected to decrease in coverage as they move east overnight, with the potential for areas east of Highway 81 to see little or no rain at all. Most areas will see rain accumulations of 0.25-0.5" or less, but far western portions of the area (w of Hwy 183) that have multiple rounds of storms could see 1- 2" of rain. Friday... Any lingering rain comes to an end Friday morning as the cold front moves east of the area. Friday will be cooler, but still seasonably warm with highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s. Sunny skies and light winds make for a pleasant October day overall. Lows Friday night will be in the low 40s to low 50s. Saturday and Sunday... A shortwave trough over Saskatchewan will dive into the Midwest and deepen on Saturday. This will push another cold front to the area, and usher in a much cooler airmass. Highs on Saturday vary depending on the cold frontal passage, ranging from the low 60s in the north to the mid 60s in the south. Gusty northerly winds are also expected behind the frontal passage, with winds gusting 30-40mph. High pressure moves over the area Saturday night-Sunday morning, and the much cooler airmass brings the first chance for frost to the area this season. Clear skies and light winds will allow for temperatures to drop into the 30s across the area. Areas northwest of the Tri-Cities will be the coolest, with current forecast lows of 31-34 degrees along and north of a Lexington to Ord line. After a cold start to the morning, a dry airmass and southwesterly winds will help temperatures climb into the 60s Sunday afternoon. Monday Onwards.... Above normal temperatures are expected on Monday ahead of an approaching shortwave trough, with highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s. A cold front associated with the aforementioned shortwave will bring a very low (15%) chance for rain to the area Monday. Dry air should keep any rain accumulations very light. Northwesterly flow sets up over the area through the rest of the forecast period. This will result in seasonable temperatures, with highs in the 60s and lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Outside of Monday`s low chance for rain, the forecast is dry across the area Friday afternoon onwards. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: LLWS will come to an end by the mid-morning hours as southerly winds quickly increase at the surface. Sustained winds around 20kts and gusts around 30kts are expected during the late morning-afternoon hours. Winds gradually decrease this evening, becoming light and variable around midnight as a cold front moves through KGRI/KEAR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon-overnight hours along and ahead of a cold front. Storms are more likely at KEAR, but can`t be ruled out at KGRI. Have maintained a PROB30 group to indicate this potential. Sub- VFR conditions are possible in stronger storms, otherwise VFR conditions are expected. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Davis AVIATION...Davis