763
FXUS63 KGID 112311
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
511 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gorgeous weather - including well above normal temperatures,
  plentiful sunshine, and light winds - continue through the end
  of the week. Expect afternoon highs in the 60s to around 70F
  through Saturday!

- A cold front and large scale pattern change arrives late
  Saturday. Highs will cool into the 50s to around 60F for
  Sunday, then drop further into the 40s to around 50F for much
  of next week.

- Precipitation chances (30-40%) return on Monday. Rain
  continues to look much more probable than snow at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Temperatures have exceeded expectations today, as they often do
around here when an already mild, Pacific airmass is further
modified with downsloping flow, full sunshine, and dry ground.
Nearly all areas have warmed into the 70s and some spots have
even risen into the MID 70s - a solid 5+ deg warmer than
expected 24 hours ago, despite winds having some northerly
component to them. With that said...if meteorologists are going
to be wrong about a forecast in November, this is exactly how
we`d like it to go...warmer than expected :)

The only thing better than the warmer than expected weather
today is the fact that well above normal weather will be
sticking around through the end of the work week and even into
the start of the weekend. And it looks like winds will be
weaker, especially tomorrow and Thursday. Get out and enjoy it
if you can. Might not be a bad time to get those outdoor holiday
decorations put up if you can.

Appears a significant pattern change is set to take place this
weekend, starting off with a cold front passage later in the
day on Saturday. High temperatures will fall into the 50s to
around 60F (still mild in terms of climo) on Sunday, then fall
further into the 40s to around 50F for Monday and much of next
week. We`ll likely average a solid 20-25 degrees colder next
week than this week, but believe it or not, current forecast
values for next week are still around average. If anything, the
overnight lows forecast to be in the upper 20s to lower 30s
could keep daily averages slightly above normal. Nonetheless,
after Fri-Sat, there doesn`t appear to be anymore widespread
60-70 degree days anytime soon.

Precip chances in the Sat-Sun time frame with the cold front
have trended lower and shifted more into the Sun night to Mon
time frame when the upper trough that is nearing the West Coast
now finally ejects onto the Plains. This upper low will become
cut-off over the Desert SW next few days, then deamplify and
eject E/NE early next week. Precip chances have increased into
the 30-40% range for Monday, and based off just-in 12Z EPS data
that is not included in this forecast, would expect these
chances to increase - esp. for E half of the area. Still appears
that with a lack of significant/deep cold air that rain is the
favored predominant precip type. Confidence decreases
significantly mid to late next week as it pertains to additional
precip chances...but there is a general "feel" from the
ensembles that there could be one or two waves worth watching
for potential wintry precip.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 509 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. Light northwest
winds are expected overnight, becoming light and variable around
sunrise as winds shift to the south. South winds of 5-10kts are
expected Wednesday afternoon. Mostly clear skies are expected
outside of a few passing high clouds.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Davis