Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 141126

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
626 AM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to spread through the
forecast area early this morning. Rainfall amounts tend to be on the
light side for the most part, but the heaviest rainfall continues to
be across north central Kansas.

An upper level low will move through the forecast area today and
move to the east of the area tonight. Expect showers and mainly
isolated thunderstorms to continue across the forecast area during
the day today. The best chances for precipitation will be in the
southeast part of the forecast area. Have kept the high PoPs in that
area through much of the day. By later this afternoon, the low is
starting to move to the east and a few of the models start to move
precipitation out of the area. Expect precipitation to move out from
west to east this afternoon and into the evening hours. Late tonight
should be dry, but clouds should remain for most of the area. With
the chances for precipitation and cloudy skies, expect that the
temperatures will be a little cooler and have lowered them just a
little. Tonight, with the cloud cover temperatures should not drop
off too much.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

There should be a break from the precipitation on Wednesday. There
is a surface high that settles into the area and skies should clear
out. The break will be short lived, as the next upper level low
approaches from the northwest Wednesday night. There will be some
showers and thunderstorms moving into the area during the night. The
area should be mostly for the northern part of the forecast area.
The upper low will move through the area and thunderstorms are
expected to spread across much of the forecast area Thursday during
the day. Thunderstorm chances continue for much of the area Thursday
night, before the upper low moves off to the east.

The next break will be Friday into Saturday with a weak surface high
across the area.

The next upper level low will start to affect the area Saturday
night and continue through Monday. Models still have a few
differences in the timing and location of the low. The best chances
for precipitation appear to be in the Sunday to Sunday night time
frame. Even as the low moves to the east on Monday, there could be
some wrap around precipitation into the area.

Temperatures through the period appear to be a little below normal
for this time of year.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Wednesday)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible through the early
afternoon before moving off to the east. While there is some
precipitation around, the visibility and ceiling could be a little
lower. LIFR ceilings at KEAR will lift during the morning.




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