Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 202047
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
347 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

Widespread stratiform rain with a few embedded thunderstorms are
currently moving northeast through the southeastern half of the
forecast area. Parts of northern Kansas have seen around an inch
of rain, but overall it hasn`t been as widespread as previously
expected. As this area moves off, we will just see scattered
showers and thunderstorms through the evening and into tonight.
Any severe threat has completely diminished at this point, as
widespread cloud cover has kept us pretty stable.

Tonight, a few models hint at patchy fog developing, but with
breezy east winds and cloudcover, I think that this threat is
overdone. As the upper trough approaches late overnight, we will
see another uptick in showers that will last into Tuesday morning.

The forecast for Tuesday is looking a bit more interesting from a
severe weather perspective. As the upper low moves into the area,
we will see showers taper off, and could even see some clearing
skies into our southern counties. Instability will be
marginal...likely between 500 and 1000 J/kg of CAPE...but with the
upper low moving overhead shear will be sufficient for a few low-
topped supercells. Main threats are large hail and possibly a few
brief tornadoes during the afternoon and early evening.

Total additional rainfall is expected to range from 1 to 2"
across the area. Given this forecasted rain and saturated soils, I
will maintain the flash flood watch for Mitchell County. That
said, the latest trends certainly keep the highest farther
southeast across eastern and southeastern Kansas.

Tuesday night`s lows are expected to be the coldest of the week,
but we should remain frost-free with temperatures bottoming out in
the upper 30s to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

We will be between systems on Wednesday, so dry conditions are
expected prevail through the daytime. Late Wednesday night, there
is a low chance for a few thunderstorms in our south ahead of the
next upper low and in an area of convergence along the LLJ. SPC
has this area in a Marginal Risk for this timeframe. If storms can
develop in our area, its possible to have some marginally severe
elevated storms, but confidence in coverage and location is fairly
low at this point.

Stronger forcing arrives on Thursday as this next system ejects
across the central Plains. Instability on the latest GFS is
sufficient for strong storms, although not particularly high, as
temperatures will only be in the 70s. The shear is notably
strong, though, with 50kts or more of deep-layer shear. Obviously
there is plenty of uncertainty at this range, but this is
definitely another day to monitor.

The area remains in southwesterly flow aloft Friday into
Saturday, This will allow chances for rain and thunderstorms to
stay in the forecast each day...especially if the surface front
can stall in the area like the GFS indicates.

Yet another system is on-track to impact the area Sunday into
Monday, but at this point there are some significant timing
differences between the GFS and EC.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

Mix of IFR, MVFR and VFR ceilings persist across the area as of
midday Monday. Nevertheless, expect ceilings continue to
deteriorate this afternoon as additional rain moves northward out
of Kansas. There is also a chance for an isolated thunderstorm or
two, but most of this activity will likely remain south of the
terminals.

Coverage of rain will taper off this evening, but off and on
showers will continue, and some short term models also show some
fog developing late overnight as well.

Another round of persistent rain is expected to move in from the
south Tuesday morning, but should break up and become more
scattered by Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday afternoon will also
feature a better chance for thunderstorms in the area.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for KSZ019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels


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