Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 100018
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
718 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020

...Short Term and Aviation Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 716 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020

Minor downward tweak to overnight lows:
On a rather minor note, have nudged overnight lows down 1-2
degrees from previous forecast (and potentially not enough in some
spots), as the combo of clear skies, very light winds (especially
after 11 PM) and dry air should yield a fairly ideal radiational
cooling setup. After seeing lows last night/this morning drop
generally 2-4 degrees colder than our forecast from 24 hours ago,
feel that downward is the way to lean tonight. As a result, now
have most of the CWA bottoming out 21-25, with favored colder
spots especially in our north (such as Ord) almost certainly
touching upper teens.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020

Clouds will continue to move out of the forecast area through the
remainder of the afternoon. The sunny skies will allow for
temperatures to warm into the mid 50s and relative humidity will
continue to drop. North to northwest winds are expected to stay
breezy through the afternoon before diminishing around sunset. Will
let the Red Flag Warning continue as it stands.

A surface high pressure system is expected to build into the
forecast area during the night. As the sun goes down the winds will
subside and the surface high will keep winds light and variable
through the night. Clear skies and light and variable winds will
allow temperatures to plummet. Lows tonight will drop into the 20s,
actually, lower to mid 20s. At this time it is early in the growing
season and will not be issuing any frost or freeze headlines. Now is
not the time to put out any flowers.

On Friday, the surface high moves off to the southeast and winds
will turn to the south. The temperatures are expected to rebound and
highs will be in the 50s and 60s. Winds will be a little gusty,
especially in the afternoon. At this time, relative humidity levels
drop as low as 25 to 35 percent. Will need to watch to see if it
looks like they will drop any lower.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020

A weak upper level wave is expected to move into the area Friday
night into Saturday. There could be a few light rain showers around,
but they should be at least a few spotty showers. A surface low
develops to the west on Saturday and by afternoon a cold front
starts to move through the area. Colder air will start to work into
the north, but temperatures in the south should be into the 70s. The
cold front will be in the southeast part of the forecast area during
the afternoon Saturday. There is enough instability to have a few
thunderstorms during the afternoon and into the evening hours. The
thunderstorms are most likely in the southeast portion of the area,
near the front.

Toward morning, the colder air moves into the area and expect a
change from rain to snow with the colder air. By Sunday morning, the
northwest part of the forecast area can expect to have some snow.
The cold air pushes into the area during the day and expect rain to
change to snow or at least mix with snow for much of the area. Have
lowered temperatures for Sunday by a few degrees, and it may need to
be cooler still. In addition to the snow, winds are expected to
increase from the north. Have some concern that there could be some
blowing snow during the afternoon as the temperatures aloft cool
off.

Models all have a fairly quick shut off as this system moves through
and expect it to be gone by evening. Behind the system, a surface
high starts to build in. Temperature are cold and lows Sunday night
will dip into the teens and lower 20s. Monday will be a little
warmer than Sunday but still well below normal.

The period Monday night through Thursday will have northwest flow.
There are a couple of mainly weak upper waves that move through, the
first Monday night into Tuesday morning and another Wednesday night
into Thursday. There could be a little light rain or snow, but the
systems are fairly weak and may change timing as they get closer.
The main feature through this time will be the colder air that
settles into the area. Well below normal temperatures are expected
through the period. Highs will be mainly in the 40s to lower 50s and
lows will be mainly in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Saturday)
Issued at 716 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020

General overview:
High confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility and dry conditions
through the period, although much of the daytime Friday looks to
feature a fairly solid mid-level cloud deck based roughly around
7K ft. For sure, winds are the main concern aviation-wise, as
breezy north winds subside this evening before it again becomes
quite breezy on Friday, but this time out of the south.

Wind details:
Right away this evening, the last 1-2 hours of pronounced daytime
gustiness will steadily subside, but northerly gust potential of
at least 20-25KT will persist briefly. As surface high pressure
passes through overnight, especially the 04-12Z time frame will
feature light winds (at-or-below 6KT) from variable directions.
Then as Friday morning wears on, south winds gradually ramp up,
with peak daytime speeds focused 17-23Z, sustained generally
15-20KT/gusting to at least 25-27KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...Pfannkuch



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