Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 161759
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1159 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1052 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

Updated the forecast to include some patchy freezing drizzle
during the day today as we have had a few reports, although this
does not appear to be much of an impact on travel. Freezing
drizzle should remain rather patchy and isolated as soundings
suggest most locations cool to at least -10C after supercooled
droplets could be formed, making it very hard to support much
freezing drizzle. Nonetheless, it has been included for today.

Based on latest numerical model data, I increased snow amounts
enough in our northeast to include in winter weather advisory for
2 to 4 inches of snow for mainly tonight. Wind will not be a huge
issue for this event.

Kept the advisory going in our far south for a bit more potential
of freezing preciptiation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 356 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

Quite a spread in temperatures this morning as a large area of
stratus continues to blanket most of the area. This has resulted
in areas along our eastern boundary, such as York, to drop to zero
degrees overnight...while most other cloud covered areas remain
in the lowers teens. While we could still see temperatures drop a
few degrees over the next couple of hours...did raise lows early
in the shift to reflect persistent of stratus overnight. With this
stratus have also seen some flurries in spots...mostly west of
Highway 281...with occasional light snow being reported at
Lexington, Kearney and Holdrege overnight. As a result...kept
mention of flurries going under this stratus through the late
morning hours...before lift from the approaching system will
result in more widespread light precipitation developing this
afternoon and evening. In fact...could see some light freezing
drizzle mainly across our Kansas counties with this system as the
dendritic layer will be slow to saturate across Kansas through
around 00Z...which could result in some light icing with a couple
hundredths of an inch of accumulation possible before a change
over to snow. As a result...decided to issue a winter weather
advisory for Jewell, Mitchell and Osborne counties in Kansas where
the greatest potential will be through midnight tonight.

Elsewhere..should see light snow develop during the mid to late
afternoon hours with the NAM being the most aggressive with
precip amounts...although the HRRR and RAP have both trended a bit
more moist overnight. As result...went with a blend of these
models and WPC guidance for QPF with this system...which resulted
in just over 3 inches of snow now forecast northeast of the tri-
cities. Due to some uncertainty in location of mid level
low...along with trend of NAM just a bit further north and east
with the 06Z run...opted to only mention isolated snowfall totals
in excess of 3 inches in HWO and hold off on a headline for
snowfall across some of our Nebraska counties for the time being.

While this will likely be a fairly modest snow producer...with
totals ranging from less than an inch across north central
Kansas...to near 3 inches in the most favored spots...light
snowfall will likely linger at times into the midday hours across
our northeast Sunday as moisture wraps around the backside of the
departing low and ample low cloud cover and the potential for
flurries will exist elsewhere for most of the day as skies will be
very slow to clear from the southwest.

Temperature wise...with clouds going no-where and the onset of
precip during the mid to late afternoon hours...expect a very
minimal diurnal rise in temps...with most locations struggling to
get out of the teens both today and Sunday...with overnight lows
dropping only into the lower teens overnight tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 356 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

An active and cool weather pattern appears to be in store for the
local area as temperatures will remain well below normal through
much of the extended periods along with periodic chances for
snowfall. This is a result of the longwave trough over the west
persisting through much of next week along with multiple embedded
disturbances passing through. This troughy pattern will keep
temperatures well below normal through mid-week...along with a
potential system ejecting from the Rockies bringing a chance for
widespread modest snowfall amounts Tuesday into Tuesday night.
While it is still too early to pin point snowfall amounts...it
looks like there will at least be the potential for a couple of
inches of accumulating snowfall again Tuesday through Tuesday
night. Thereafter... temperatures will moderate towards the end of
the week...but remain below normal...as normals are on the
rise...reaching the lower to mid 40s by the end of the extended
periods. In addition...there will be multiple small chances for
light snowfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Sunday)
Issued at 1153 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

Snow is expected to overtake the terminals by this evening and
will lower visibility and ceilings for at least a few hours. KGRI
should experience a bit heavier snow than KEAR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
     Sunday for NEZ041-048-049-064.

KS...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for KSZ007-
     018-019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Heinlein
SHORT TERM...Rossi
LONG TERM...Rossi
AVIATION...Heinlein


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