Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 202049

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
249 PM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 244 PM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

There`s not much to talk about in the short term periods with a
continuation of the dry/mild weather that we`ve seen today. The
pattern aloft features an upper high pressure ridge over the
Rockies and northwest flow across the plains states. The ridge
axis will build east onto our region heading into Wednesday,
maintaining the mild airmass. Temps on Wednesday are forecast to
reach the mid 50s to around 60 degrees...which are above what we
typically see this time of year when highs average in the
mid/upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 PM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

Wednesday night and Thanksgiving...overall the weather is still
looking dry and mild in this time frame with the upper ridge axis
continuing to migrate east, with flow aloft transitioning
southwest ahead of an approaching upper trough. The SREF/NAM
suggest the potential for fog development Wednesday night mainly
across eastern Neb/KS edging into central Neb/KS for areas
primarily east of Highway 281. This is something to monitor as fog
could impact holiday travelers, however the NAM has been overdone
with fog development lately and will monitor later model runs
before including in the forecast. Also Thursday afternoon,
southerly winds will be on the increase with gusts of 20-30 mph
expected. Otherwise Thanksgiving is shaping up to be rather nice
temperature wise with highs in the mid 50s to around 60F.

Thursday night/Friday, we see the western upper trough emerging onto
and crossing the plains. Rain chances return with this system,
mainly for locations along/east of Highway 281 in the morning. The
forecast dries out west/east by afternoon and winds ramp up from the
northwest behind the trough with gusts of 25 to 35 mph. Will need to
monitor for near critical fire weather conditions for portions of
our southwest zones as the combination of the gusty winds and low
relative humidity values nearing 25 percent.

Over the weekend attention turns to a fast moving winter storm
system emerging from the Rockies Saturday and deepening as it
crosses the plains Saturday night/early Sunday. Precip is expected
to begin as rain Saturday aftn/early evening then quickly change to
snow Saturday night as cold air is drawn south on the back side of
the system. Extended models still suggest the potential for
accumulating snow with 12z models indicating snow amounts of 1 to 4
inches on average. Intense north winds will accompany the snow
causing areas of blowing/drifting snow and the strong north winds
will persist through Sunday. The combination of the snow and wind
may impact holiday travelers and the weekend forecast should be
monitored closely for updates on this approaching winter storm
system. One change in the forecast today is that models are
trending faster with the progression of the winter storm with
snow ending rather quickly west/east Sunday morning, leaving
windy/cold conditions the remainder of the day.

Monday/Tuesday will feature dry but continued cold weather with
temps just reaching the 20s/30s for highs.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1049 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Look for skies
to be mainly clear with winds from a southwest direction.




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