Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

045
FXUS63 KGID 160521
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1121 PM CST Fri Feb 15 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 409 PM CST Fri Feb 15 2019

Accumulating snow has ended this afternoon, therefore the winter
weather advisory has been cancelled.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 259 PM CST Fri Feb 15 2019

Snow is on the downturn for today as the shortwave trough continues
to move east with the rest of the advisory almost expired.

Main focus will be the snow and perhaps a potential for freezing
drizzle for Saturday as yet another wave moves through, acting as a
spoke for the parent upper low parked over southeastern Alberta.

As for freezing drizzle chances, I`m holding off on including this
in the forecast as only are far south indicates mid-levels drying
out at anything warmer than -10C, and even if snow does not form
aloft, there looks like a probable refreeze of any supercooled
droplets as most sounding point toward temps below -10C before
droplets would hit the ground, giving us snow grain type precip.
Midnight shift will have the final call on this. We will have good
warm air advection aloft to pay attention to, and we will have to
pay particular attention to refreeze potential if we deem it
possible for supercooled droplets to form aloft instead of snow.

Although the overall synoptic lift and mixing ratios will be more
than with this next wave compared to what we had today, we will have
lower precipitable water and lower snow to liquid ratios that will
knock down overall snow totals to what we had today, as higher snow
amounts will be well to the north and northeast. It looks like we
should top out just over two inches in our far north/northeast CWA
for Saturday. Light snow showers/flurry activity could very well
last into Sunday/Sunday evening time frame.

All and all went a few degrees colder than guidance and Superblend
as fresh snow has fallen, and models that handle well below normal
temps also indicate this. HRRR and SREF hint at some fog, but
cloud cover and a little bit of wind should help keep most of this
away, but we`ll need to watch as we will be getting some upslope
flow.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 259 PM CST Fri Feb 15 2019

More small chance of snow occur for Monday/Tuesday, with
more waves coming through but amounts do not look large. We will
remain below normal for the entire forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Saturday)
Issued at 1105 PM CST Fri Feb 15 2019

Expect a few flurries overnight. Ceilings look to gradually lower
during the TAF period with snow forecast for the afternoon to
evening time frame. As snow rates pickup expect vis to drop to the
1 to 2sm range with IFR ceilings. Once snow stops, model guidance
is hinting at MVFR ceilings near the end of the TAF period. Around
an inch of snow is forecast for the TAF sites.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Fay
SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Beda



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.