Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGID 031720
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1220 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Surface high pressure is sliding overhead early this morning
causing light and variable winds at the surface and cool morning
temps. Temps this morning are 10-15 degrees below normal for early
August.

The surface high pressure will slide eastward today causing winds
to become easterly and southeasterly throughout the
day...remaining light. Temps will be approximately 10 degrees
below normal for early August with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
A few cloud may develop this afternoon, but overall skies will be
mostly clear. The high-res guidance shows that some of the
activity that is currently ongoing over extreme southwestern NE
and into western Kansas could slowly move eastward with time today
and impact the western portions of the area. Confidence is not
high on this activity actually making it far enough east, so have
kept pops out for now, but something to watch.

Models indicate a similar pattern tonight with convection
developing along the High Plains and moving eastward with time.
Have kept a slight chance for thunderstorms west of a line from
Lexington, NE to Stockton, KS for the potential that some of this
reaches the western fringes of the area. Again...not expecting
much if it does reach the area...and confidence is not high that
it will live that long. Lows tonight should be slightly
warmer...in the mid to upper 50s with the weak southerly flow.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

The Central Plains remains under northwesterly upper level flow
through most of the week until weak ridging tries to build in from
the west Thursday into Friday. For the weekend, weak ridging
transitions to southwesterly upper level flow.

This pattern will favor cooler to near normal temps for early
August...with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. A weak
disturbance is expected to move southeast across the area late
Tuesday, this brings the next best chance for
showers/thunderstorms...but to be honest, the models are not
handling this well. Guidance is all over the place with how
widespread any of this activity will be. Have decreased pops some,
keeping chance pops...but limiting higher amounts due to the
uncertainty.

Through the end of the work week, a few weak disturbances move
across the area, these bring additional chances for precipitation
with one of the better chances being Thursday night into Friday.
The weekend looks largely dry, but a few small chances exist here
and there. Temperatures will slowly increase by the end of the
work week...back to near normal for the first half of August with
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

A rather simple and straightforward forecast...conditions are
expected to remain VFR through the end of the period along with
light and variable winds. Typical day time scattered cu deck will
hang around through the afternoon before thinning out this
evening.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Shawkey


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.