363
FXUS63 KGID 120917
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
417 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will be
  possible for portions of the area this afternoon. The
  combination of unseasonably warm temperatures and winds
  gusting 25-35MPH will create some concerns through the
  afternoon and early evening hours.

- The next chance for showers and thunderstorm across the area
  will be Friday evening through Saturday morning. At this time,
  severe weather is not expected.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected across the region
  for the next seven days, with highs in the mid to upper 80s on
  several days. Normal highs range from the upper 70s to low
  80s. Normal lows typically are in the low to mid-50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 416 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

The High Plains will be under southwest flow today, ahead of an
upper trough crossing the Bighorn Mountains of Wyoming. Sunny to
mostly sunny skies are expected and temperatures will rise into the
mid to upper 80s in the afternoon.

We are getting into the season where crops are being dried out in
preparation for harvest. While fuels still have a lot of green in
them, they are not at a point where they are conducive for rapid
fire spread at this time. As we continue to experience unseasonably
warm conditions and move further into September, fuels will continue
to dry out, which will be something to keep an eye on. Elevated to
near-critical fire weather conditions are expected during the
afternoon and early evening hours for portions of the area. Winds
gusting to around 25-35 MPH are expected. Relative humidity values
are a little higher (30-40%) compared to yesterday. The higher RH
values may hamper fire weather issues; however, with the gusty
winds, there is concern that if a fire were to spark, that the winds
would help it spread.

Heading into Friday, the upper low continues to move to the
east, into Nebraska. Meanwhile, a closed upper low will lift to
the north- northeast, into Canada. A boundary may move into the
region Friday evening, kicking off a few showers and
thunderstorms. At this time, any storms that develop are not
expected to be severe. High temperatures will range from the mid
to upper 80s with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Saturday, the closed low continues to lift to the north-northeast
and the upper trough continued to move across Central Nebraska. The
day brings a slight cool down, with highs ranging from the low to
mid-80s. The cooler temps will be short-lived, with highs returning
to the mid to upper 80s Sunday through Tuesday.

Models have come into a little better agreement on the potential for
a mid-week disturbance moving across the center of the nation. There
is still considerable uncertainty on the timing and track of this
possible system and what impacts it could have on the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Clear
skies are forecast along with dry conditions. There is a concern
for some low-level wind shear, with winds aloft at 170@40kt and
winds at the surface around 150 at 5-10kts. Winds are expected
to increase after sunrise, coming from the south around 10-20kts
with gusts as high as 30kts. Winds will decrease slightly after
dark, shifting to the southeast around 10-15kts.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wekesser
AVIATION...Wekesser