Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 190551

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1251 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

Lots of stratus hanging around the local area today. As skies
attempted to clear out early this afternoon...low level CU began
to fill in...and mostly cloudy skies are have continued into the
afternoon hours across much of the local area. This has helped
keep temps in the lower to middle 70s across much of south central
Nebraska where the clouds have persisted...while temperatures
have been able to warm into the mid 80s across north central
Kansas where sunny skies have dominated. As the sun angle
decreases late in the day...expect the persistent low level CU to
gradually dissipate and for skies to clear this evening. With
light east southeasterly winds...clearing skies...and a cool
airmass in place...expect the potential for radiational fog
development overnight. Latest model are continuing to indicate
this potential...with even some dense fog now being hinted at
across our west. As a result...added areas of fog to the official
forecast for late tonight through Monday morning...along with the
wording for some patchy dense fog in the HWO.

Once the fog lifts Monday morning...there is some question of how
long the stratus will hang around. Some models are hinting the
stratus will hang around through the afternoon hours...which would
hold down afternoon highs several degrees. With this latest
guidance coming in cooler...hedged afternoon temps down some...but
kept generally above guidance as a warmer airmass will be in
place and anticipate most areas will end up being partly cloudy by

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

Good moisture return across the local area Monday will result in
increasing dew points through the afternoon and evening hours.
With this moisture advection and temps forecast to drop to near
dewpoint values...added some patchy fog for the late night hours
Monday night into Tuesday morning...but do not think it will be as
thick or persistent as what we could potentially see to start the
day Monday. With the increased dewpoints and mainly clear skies
Tuesday...expect temperatures to climb back into the 90s...pushing
heat index values to near or above 100 degrees by afternoon. This
spike will be short an upper level
disturbance tracking out of the southwest brings a fairly good
chance for showers and thunderstorms to the local area Tuesday
evening into Wednesday...which should knock temperatures down back
below normal by Wednesday. Looking specifically at Tuesday
night...will need to keep an eye out for severe weather as with
the heat...instability will build and despite modest
shear...forcing from the approaching upper level disturbance
should be enough for a fairly active evening/overnight
period...with large hail and strong winds gusts both possible.

The potential for showers and thunderstorms will then linger all
the way through Thursday night...before drier weather and a
gradual warming trend to near normal temps is expected for the end
of next week and into next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

The winds should keep up enough to minimize the amount of stratus
and fog that could develop. Have kept some MVFR conditions but
will have to watch to see how much fog and stratus develops.




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