Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 021118
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
518 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 402 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

Wow what a week ahead...March is definitely not coming in like a
lion. This morning a few high clouds are moving southward across
the area, winds are generally light and temperatures are in the
upper 20s and low 30s.

As a disturbance exits eastward across the southeast US this
morning, upper level flow will become zonal before a stronger
ridge slides quickly overhead before a disturbance for mid/late
week.

The main concern in the short term is fire weather. Relative
humidity values will be in the teens across north central Kansas
and even bleeding some across the state line to the north. Zonal
flow will induce a lee low to deepen today. Gradient southwesterly
winds ahead of this trough could reach speeds of 15 to 20 mph and
gusts up to 25 to 30 mph. There is some uncertainty in regards to
how strong the winds will actually be. They could struggle to meet
those speeds, but since we tend to under forecast wind speeds,
decided to err towards the stronger side. The stronger speeds
will be present further north into east-central Nebraska...but
relative humidity values will be higher where the winds are
highest. Decided to go ahead and upgrade the Fire Weather Watch
to a Red Flag Warning for the current areas. Things to watch. 1.
Will the lowest RH values reach into the southern tier of NE
counties and 2. Will the winds reach 20 mph with gusts over 25
mph. If those things occur, could see some expansion northward
into Nebraska zones. For now, kept it where confidence is higher
for lowest RH values.

Otherwise, the forecast is quiet. Sunny skies, temperatures in the
60s for most through mid-week. Towards the end of the work week, a
cut off low moves eastward from the California coast and at this
time looks to mainly impact Kansas Thursday night into Friday
morning. Expect rain with this system. Instability remains
further south and we are warm enough through the column that snow
is not a concern. For this forecast the primary location for rain
looks to be southwest of a line from Lexington, NE to Hebron, NE.

Ridging will follow for Saturday and possibly Sunday ahead of the
next quick system. Ahead of this system it`ll be warm and breezy
as a lee trough deepens. There are some timing differences with
the GFS faster than the EC and other ensembles. If it is slower,
Sunday will also be breezy and warm. Confidence is low on any
precipitation potential, but if it occurs, it doesn`t look to
amount to a whole lot.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Wednesday)
Issued at 518 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast.
Southwesterly winds will be breezy this afternoon before
decreasing as a surface trough approaches the area. Winds will
then become light and variable and eventually northwesterly and
light. A few high clouds are moving overhead as of this issuance,
but clear skies are expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 402 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

A Red Flag Warning is in effect today for north central Kansas.
A surface trough will move through the region during the day.
Ahead of this trough, southwesterly winds could gust to 25-30 mph.
Relative humidity values will be generally upper teens across the
area. There is some uncertainty in how strong the winds will
actually be, but generally we tend to under forecast winds, so
decided to err on the side of slightly stronger sustained winds
and gusts for this forecast. Despite these concerns, there is
enough confidence along with cured fuels to issue a Red Flag
Warning. Fires that develop could become out of control quickly
due to the low RH values and gusty winds.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CST this evening for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Billings Wright
FIRE WEATHER...Billings Wright


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