985
FXUS63 KGID 192307
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
607 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong upper level low pressure system continues to slide
  further east of the area this afternoon. After widespread
  blizzard conditions through a good chunk of the day, snow
  rates have greatly diminished, and the Blizzard Warning was
  allowed to expire.

- Gusty NNW winds will continue this afternoon, tapering off
  this evening/overnight. Widespread gusts of 55-70 MPH occurred
  last night into the first half of the day today...and while
  gusts that high will be on a much more isolated basis (if they
  occur at all) late today, gusts of 45-50 MPH will remain
  possible.

- Forecast is dry Thursday and Friday, with the next chance for
  precipitation (rain) coming Saturday evening-night. Highs in
  the 40s-50s Thursday climb into the 60s for Saturday. Another
  round of gusty NW winds expected Friday...though not as strong
  as today, gusts of 30-40 MPH are not out of the question.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Currently through tonight...

Been a hectic day across the forecast area, with widespread
hazardous/blizzard conditions thanks to a potent storm system
passing through. Easy to pick out this low pressure system in
upper air/satellite data...sliding ENE across KS last night
through the day today, strengthening along its path...and now
has moved into northern MO. An axis of at times heavy snow set
up in a SW-NE oriented through the heart of the forecast area
last night into early this morning...then has gradually shifted
east through the day. At times snowfall rates were at least 1-2"
per hour, dropping several inches roughly in the Tri-Cities
area and points east. The accompanying surface low pressure was
also stout as it passed roughly along I-70 in KS...ushering in a
fairly prolonged period late last night through around midday
where NNW gusts anywhere from 55-70 MPH were pretty widespread.
Add those winds to the falling snow...even though it was on the
wetter/sticker side...and it brought a rough period of white-out
conditions to the forecast area.

This afternoon, while the Blizzard Warning was extended in time
for a couple hours across eastern portions of the area,
overall the timing of the snow tapering off has panned out
pretty well. For the vast majority of the area, falling snow has
ended...with just light snow lingering in the east. Winds have
also very gradually diminished this afternoon...any severe gusts
(58 MPH+) have been much more spotty than earlier in the
day...but area obs still showing plenty of 45-50 MPH gusts out
there here at mid-afternoon.

The rest of this afternoon, any lingering snow will taper off to
an end, as that main upper level low continues its trek east
across MO...with dry conditions expected through the overnight
hours tonight. Wind speeds will also diminish with time this
evening-overnight, as the pressure gradient across the area
weakens with sfc high pressure building further into the region.
By around midnight, speeds look to be closer to 15 MPH, further
tapering off through the early morning hours Thursday, closer
to 10 MPH and turning more westerly. Cloud cover will also
diminish...and with the fresh snow and diminishing winds,
forecast lows tonight drop into teens to lower 20s.

Thursday and Friday....

Dry conditions are currently forecast for the end of the work
week. Models are in good agreement showing upper level
shortwave ridging working its way through the region on
Thursday...set up between today`s departing system and another
shortwave disturbance which will be making its way through the
Rockies. The day looks to start out mostly clear, with mid-upper
levels clouds increasing from west to east later in the
afternoon out ahead of that next disturbance. At the surface,
westerly winds in the morning turn more south- southwesterly by
around midday...with the potential for a breezy afternoon and
gusts of 20-25 MPH not out of the question, especially for NNW
portions of the forecast area. Today`s system is not an overly
cold one...so highs for Thursday are forecast to bounce back
into the 40s and 50s, but because we have fresh snowfall, temps
in those areas with the deeper amounts will likely struggle, so
confidence is lacking through the heart of/eastern portions of
the forecast area.

Thursday night into early Friday morning, models remain in good
agreement showing that next upper level disturbance emerging out
onto the Plains...then swinging through our area during roughly
the first half of the day. While precipitation is currently
not forecast across our area...better chances won`t be far off
to our north, so will be watching model trends
closely...wouldn`t take much of a southward trend for chances to
be needed in our north. At this point the main impact from this
disturbance looks to come from winds, as another frontal
boundary pushes through the area. Afternoon wind gusts of 30-40
MPH will be possible. Current forecast highs are in the 50s, and
while melting even already going today and more tomorrow, not
out of the question some impact could linger into Friday,
keeping highs down a touch in central/eastern areas.

This weekend into early next week...

Friday night into Saturday, another passage of upper level
shortwave ridging passes through the region...keeping the
forecast dry. Next chances for precipitation arrive Saturday
evening/overnight, as a trough axis swings through the Central
Plains. We look to be on the southern fringe of the better
forcing, with models showing a deepening low as things cross the
Dakotas into MN. At this time, this event looks to be liquid.
The remainder of this forecast period is currently dry...but
models show the potential for weak disturbances embedded in
NWrly flow in the area, especially around Tuesday, so confidence
in it staying totally dry isn`t overly high.

As far as temperatures go, highs on Saturday look to reach into
the low-mid 60s, dropping back into the 50s for Sunday.
Looking for a warming trend early next week...with mid 60s-low
70s possible for Tue-Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 555 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds
continue to diminish tonight and turn back to the SW for
Thursday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Mangels