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000
FXUS63 KGID 240915
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
415 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

Key Messages:

* High probability for dry conditions and near to above normal
  temperatures through the upcoming work week.

* Warmest days look to be Thu-Sat with widespread highs in the 80s
  to lower 90s - which is well above normal for late September.

* Pattern may turn gradually cooler and more active at some point
  next weekend.

Forecast Details:
System that brought the active weather to the local area past few
days is still churning over the N Plains this morning. System has
become closed and cut-off from the primary upper flow - so it will
continue to meander about over roughly the same area for the next
few days. With the system occlusion, there appears to be very
little chc for moisture going forward, despite some southward
wobble Mon into Tue, as substantial dry air has moved in from the
Desert SW and the core of the upper low remains far enough N/E to
keep majority of wrap around moisture to the E of the MO River.
Strong, blocking upper high over Hudson Bay region will
essentially halt progression of upper flow (thus the reason for
very slow moving cut-off low), which means several days of very
pleasant late Sept. weather in dry conditions and near to above
normal temps. Broad/deep cyclonic flow will keep temps fairly
steady in the mid 70s to mid 80s next few days, with perhaps some
mostly diurnal wrap around clds/fair wx cumulus each aftn. Today
will remain a bit brzy, but much lighter winds (generally less
than 15 MPH) are likely for Mon and Tue.

Should finally start to see more progression to the upper flow for
second half of the upcoming work week as the blocking high breaks
down and the cut-off low becomes absorbed within the primary
westerlies. This will allow for stronger height/thermal ridging to
shift E off the Front Range and onto the Plains. Well above
normal temps, both highs and lows, will become likely during this
time, particularly Fri and possibly Sat, as well. Record highs
generally in the mid 90s appear safe at this time, but daily avgs
may exceed 15-20 deg above normal owing to forecast low temps in
the mid 60s that will be well within reach of warm minimum temp
records. Will really just depend on specific cld cover and
overnight wind speeds, which do look to be elevated during that
time. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance show a general
trend toward cooler, and potentially more active, weather next
weekend, but still have significant differences on exactly when
and how we get to that point. At the very least, appears slgt chc
PoPs are warranted as early as Fri night-Sat, with perhaps a
stronger push of cold air and better rain chcs towards Sun-
Mon...but again, details are (rightfully so for 6-7 days out)
still quite murky.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Monday)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

VFR conditions expected through the period. Clr skies and lgt
winds early this morning will give way to brzy WNW/NW wind by late
AM, as well as some CU around 4-5K ft. Lgt winds and clr skies
return Sun eve. Confidence: High.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Thies