Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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781
FXUS63 KGID 210529
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1229 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Updated grids for short term trends, and made a first move toward
increasing fog coverage tonight. Some concern about how much
clearing will take place, but if it clears, even thins, we could
easily see dense fog with the light winds and high low level
moisture. Plethora of hi-res show low visibilities, especially
west of U.S.Highway 281 after 2-3 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Pesky, lingering rain showers continue east of Highway 281 early
this afternoon, though these should gradually wane and move out of
the area by late afternoon.

Skies remain overcast over most of the area, but there has been some
clearing starting to develop in the Broken Bow, North Platte, and
Lexington areas. This clearing, coupled with light surface winds may
allow for fog to develop late overnight tonight into Monday morning.
Confidence is not high on location and intensity of fog, so have
just included a mention of patchy fog at this time.

A very pleasant start to the work-week is expected for Monday. Winds
become southerly as the surface high slides off to the east,
allowing temperatures to reach the mid 70s to near 80 degrees by
late afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

A low-level jet is apparent in the models late Monday night, which
should be able to kick up scattered thunderstorms, especially over
northern and eastern parts of the forecast area into early Tuesday
morning.

The next several days all feature chances for rain and thunderstorms
as an upper low moves out of the Southwest into the northern Great
Plains. That said, none of these chances are looking particularly
strong. In fact, the model consensus maintains only 20-40% PoPs off
and on through Thursday...which I believe to be reasonable. The
overall severe weather threat doesn`t look particularly high
either through the coming week, but we can`t ever completely
ignore this risk this time of year.

High temperatures Tuesday through Thursday should reach the upper
80s to lower 90s each day...which is 10+ degrees above normal for
mid- late May.

The forecast dries out for Friday, but we will still have to watch
for a few showers or storms as the EC and GFS both bring the upper
low back south along the Mississippi River.

As of now, the pattern looks relatively mild heading into Memorial
Day weekend. Model consensus shows high temperatures in the 80s,
with little chance for precipitation as we see increased ridging
over the Rocky Mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Low ceilings and fog are the main concerns for the TAF period. To
the west of terminals, fog is developing along a surface ridge
axis and the potential for dense fog exists tonight into Monday
morning as the ridge migrates east and in the presence of low
level moisture. Cloud ceilings are expected to remain low through
the morning before raising during the day. Look for winds to be
fairly light and variable tonight before transitioning southerly
on the back side of the ridge axis.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NOAA/NWS/Moritz
SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Fay



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