Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 141137

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
637 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

The next upper level low will track across the Dakotas today into
tonight, but the cold front will not pass through until after
sunset this evening. Consequently, we expect a very nice day with
southerly winds ahead of the approaching cold front that should
result in most all areas climbing into the 70s for highs today.

Forecast models are in very good agreement that the frontal
passage tonight will be a dry frontal passage. Increased wind
speeds a bit above the National Blend of Models using CONSMOS
guidance to get the higher winds.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Good harvest weather with dry conditions through Saturday and then
the next storm system could bring rain to the region as early as
Saturday night into Sunday.

Temperatures will be cooler behind the cold front and a gusty
northwest wind will also make it feel noticably cooler. Used
CONSMOS wind data to get higher post frontal wind speeds, which
seem realistic. Expect afternoon wind speeds out of the northwest
at 20-30 mph with gusts to around 35 mph. Highs will only be in
the 50s across southern Nebraska to the lower 60s over northern
Kansas. It should also be noted that another pretty hard freeze
is expected Tuesday night with lows ranging from the mid 20s to
around 32 across the forecast area.

Wednesday through Saturday...
Wednesday will still be cool, but the change in wind direction to
a light southerly wind will be a sign of better weather ahead. An
upper level ridge will slide across the plains through the period
bringing warmer weather ahead of a deepening trough across the
western United States. Highs Thursday through Saturday should be
in the upper 60s to lower 70s in what is expected to be several
rather nice days.

Saturday night through Sunday...
This currently appears to be our next chance for rain and at this
point it appears to be warm enough to be just rain. Forecast
models have been fairly consistent in brining another fairly
strong upper low through the central plains, but they vary on
the strength and track of the system. There certainly could be
some decent rain amounts across portions of the region, but too
early to pinpoint how much or where exactly due to storm track and
strength uncertainty this far out. Temperatures will likely cool
back down again behind this storm system.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Tuesday)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

VFR conditions are expected to continue throughout the TAF valid
period. Skies will remain clear to mostly clear with just a few
high clouds at times. The wind will become southerly today and
could be a bit breezy during the afternoon. The TAF winds may be a
little on the low side this afternoon. A cold front will track
across the area late this evening, primarily after 10 pm, which
will turn the winds to back out of the northwest.




LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...Wesely is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.