Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 160540

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1240 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 416 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019

The upper level pattern across the region continues to be driven
by ridging, extending northeastward from high pressure centered
over the desert SW. Hasn`t been much movement with this ridging,
thanks to the remnants of Barry continuing to drift north from the
Gulf Coast region. Had a few sprinkles hang around earlier this
morning, but those quickly diminished and things have been dry
since...with little in the way of clouds. At the surface, a trough
axis is draped from MN southwestward through western
NE/KS...keeping winds across the CWA southerly. Temps have worked
out well today, 3 PM obs sit in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

Kept the evening hours dry (though will have to keep a close eye
on that activity in the Sandhills), but then it`s another
overnight period, another chance for scattered thunderstorms type
of story. Models showing activity continuing to develop this
afternoon/evening out west over the Rockies/Front Range, as
another weak disturbance rides around the edge of the upper level
ridging. The main question is if any activity slides in, and if
so, how much of the CWA is affected. Models again aren`t in the
best agreement, but will keep the 20-30% chances going across the
northern half of the CWA tonight, lingering across northeastern
areas into the first part of Tuesday morning.

Have the rest of the Tuesday daytime period day, with small
chances for storms returning once again during the
evening/overnight hours. Models showing the potential for another
shortwave disturbance crossing through the region, but similar to
tonight (and days past), models don`t have the greatest agreement.
A few strong/marginally severe storms are not out of the
question, mainly across the NWrn 1/3 of the CWA. Otherwise Tuesday
will be another day of southerly winds, with the sfc boundary
looking to again be just off to the north of the CWA. Made few
changes to forecast highs, which sit in the lower 90s north-
northeast to near 100 in the SW. Heat index values are expected to
reach right around 100 deg.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 416 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019

The main concern for the middle and latter portions of this week
remains with the heat...then precip chances. In the upper levels,
we transition from the current generally NWrly flow to more
zonal flow...Barry`s remnants continue to weaken/push east, and
the area of high pressure is flattened/spread out across the
southern CONUS. Through the forecast Thurs-Sat is dry, it`s
difficult to have a high level of confidence in that...the more
zonal flow makes our area more susceptible to shortwave
disturbances/precip chances.

As far as the heat goes, models continue to show the potential for
a hotter airmass to work into the area, with 850mb temps in the
upper 20s-lower 30s possible. Current forecast highs climb well
into the 90s to just over 100 degrees, mainly Wed-Fri...and those
temps combined with dewpoints in the 60s/70s is going to bring
some miserable conditions and heat index values over 100. Due to
the potential for those conditions lasting multiple days, decided
to issue an Excessive Heat Watch Wed-Fri. It`s not a slam-dunk
there will be CWA-wide readings meeting the 105 deg heat index
criteria, especially in northern portions of the area...there is a
chance for sfc frontal boundaries (or even aftn convection on Wed
like some models show) to throw a wrench in things. And though
the forecast currently has slightly cooler readings for Sat, it`s
not out of the realm of possibility it could be added to a heat
headline. We`ll see hot things trend.

A stronger front is shown by models to push south through the area
at some point this things off a bit.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

VFR TAFs expected to continue, but there is a chance for
thunderstorms during the overnight hours. Convection is ongoing
across the Sandhills and the high-resolution guidance continues to
track the convection along and north of I-80. KGRI has a better
chance of receiving Thunderstorms and have only put a VCTS at KGRI
not KEAR. Will amend if necessary. Winds will become northwesterly
as the convection moves through and will monitor for gusts and
amend. Also increased south/southeasterly winds tomorrow,
soundings show slightly stronger winds than in those in the 00z


NE...Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday
     evening for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday
     evening for KSZ005>007-017>019.



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