158
FXUS63 KGID 150014
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
714 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

...Aviation and Key Messages Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Through roughly sunset, a threat for scattered strong to
  severe thunderstorms will continue mainly within our counties
  that straddle the KS/NE border. The primary threat will be
  spotty 60-70 MPH winds.

- After roughly sunset and well into the overnight, additional
  scattered storms will likely develop farther north through our
  area as the low level jet picks up and a cold front drops in
  from the north. A few of these storms could be strong (small
  hail/gusty winds), but for the MOST PART they should be sub-
  severe.

- Cooler and at-times stormy weather continues Tuesday and
  Wednesday, but the threat for severe storms is rather low.
  High temps will generally be in the 70s-80s.

- Off and on rain chances continue through the weekend, mainly
  during the evening-overnight hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

This Afternoon-Tonight...

A developing low is centered near the NE-SD border. An
associated warm front is lifting north across the area,
currently located roughly along a line from Grand Island to
Geneva. A cold front is soon to move into northwestern portions
of the area currently located just west of a line from Thedford-
North Platte-McCook. In the warm sector of this low (between
warm and cold fronts) breezy southerly winds are helping to
advect warm moist air into the area. Temperatures in the warm
sector are in the 80s and 90s, warmest across north central
Kansas. Elevated showers/weak storms are ongoing across the area
but overall remain fairly brief/light.

As the cold front continues to push across the area, storms are
expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front during the
late afternoon-early evening hours. CAPE values of 2000+J/Kg
combined with 35kts of shear would support strong-severe
thunderstorms. Initial storm development is favored to be discrete
which supports a supercellular storm mode. Discrete/Supercellular
storms would carry a potential for all hazards (Large hail, damaging
wind gusts, isolated tornado). While an isolated tornado can`t be
ruled out along/east of Highway 81 the best chances look to be just
east of the forecast area, closest to the warm front, where surface
winds maintain a more due southerly direction. Over time, storms
will become more widespread along the front forming into a
cluster/line of storms.  As storms form into a cluster/line later
this evening, hail/tornado threat lessens, with the primary concern
becoming damaging wind gusts (gusts to 60-70mph). Strong-severe
storms exit the area around midnight. Behind the front, scattered
non-severe showers/storms are expected to persist throughout the
overnight hours. The steadiest rain overnight will be along and just
north of the front as it continues to slide southeast, exiting the
area around sunrise on Tuesday.

Tuesday...

Lingering showers/storms continue across southeastern portions of
the area on Tuesday. Cooler weather is expected on Tuesday with
highs in the 70s and the coldest temperatures across SE portions of
the area where cloud coverage is the most persistent. More
widespread showers/storms develop during the afternoon hours. With
the front located across central/southern KS, PoPs should be limited
to mainly SE portions of the forecast area. PoP chances and
coverage increase further Tuesday night as the LLJ results in
scattered-widespread storms across the area though severe storms
look unlikely at this time.

Wednesday...

The stalled front across Kansas begins to lift back north on
Wednesday ahead of the next passing upper level disturbance. Highs
will be in the 70s across Nebraska and in the low-mid 80s across
north central Kansas (warmest along/south of the front). Dry weather
is favored during the daytime hours, with rain chances returning to
northwestern portions of the area during the overnight hours.

Thursday Onwards...

Southwesterly flow-weak ridging builds over the area Thursday and
Friday with temperatures climbing into the 80s and 90s. As a series
of disturbances traverse this flow aloft, it will bring continued
off and on chances for precipitation each day mainly during the
evening-overnight hours. Cooler weather returns this weekend as the
aforementioned disturbances flatten and push the ridge east of the
area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 715 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
High confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility and dry/thunderstorm-
free conditions through the majority of the period. That being
said, much of this evening into early Tues morning will feature
scattered showers/thunderstorms that could briefly promote sub-
VFR visibility, and there is at least some hint that at least a
brief (up to a few hours) of sub-VFR ceiling could also settle
in behind a passing cold front overnight (lower confidence
scenario). Speaking of that front, it will flip breezes around
to north-northeasterly through much of the period, with some
modest gustiness up to around 20KT likely at times.

- Ceiling/visibility/precipitation details:
Right out of the gate this evening, all active thunderstorms in
the region are 50+ miles south of KGRI/KEAR. However, already by
around 02Z and continuing through roughly 12Z, at least
scattered showers/non-severe storms will become increasingly
likely as storms develop/shift northward. Later TAFs may be able
to justify TEMPO groups, but for now have stuck with more
generic PROB30 given question regarding coverage/duration of
storms directly affecting the terminals. Beyond 12Z into the
daytime hours, cannot rule out more spotty lingering convection,
but this does not currently appear to justify PROB30 inclusion.

Turning to ceiling, would not be a bit surprised if convection
in the area keeps the lower levels "mixy" enough to keep a lower
ceiling from forming overnight into early Tues AM. However, at
least one shorter term model is rather insistent that at least a
few hours of low ceiling (MVFR to perhaps even IFR) could
materialize at some point 06-12Z. For now will "hint" at this
potential with a scattered lower cloud group, but keep
prevailing ceiling no lower than low-VFR. High confidence in VFR
beyond 12Z although a ceiling around 5K ft. AGL could stick
around much of the day.

- Wind details (not accounting for any possible convective
  outflow):
This evening, a generally light (under 10KT) and somewhat
variable direction regime will prevail ahead of the approaching
cold front. This front will initially pass 06-09Z, flipping
breezes around to northerly with a gradual increase in speeds.
Much of the morning into early afternoon will feature gusts to
around 20KT, before speeds subside mid-late afternoon as
direction turns more easterly with time.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Pfannkuch