898
FXUS63 KGID 310553
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1253 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers/storms continue overnight through the mid morning
  hours. Small hail is possible in the strongest storms.

- Highs in the upper 70s to 80s on today with the best chances
  for afternoon/evening showers/storms east of the forecast
  area.

- Scattered thunderstorm chances return Monday evening/night. A
  few of these storms could be strong-severe. Off and on
  chances for storms continue through the end of the forecast
  period with highs generally in the 80s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Today...

The band of thunderstorms that brought damaging wind gusts to
southwestern portions of the area has exited northeastern portions
of the area. Behind this band, two clusters of storms are ongoing
over the area. The first is across Osborne and Mitchel counties
in Kansas where weak shear is keeping storms sub-severe despite
CAPE values of 2000 J/Kg. Storms will remain pulse-y with cores
quickly strengthening and weakening. Small hail is possible in
these storms. Another concern with these storms is continued
locally heavy rainfall given the potential for multiple rounds
of storms (training) with PWAT values around 1.5". Over time
this cluster will gradually shift east/northeast out of the
area. Another cluster of showers/storms is developing across
Lincoln/Custer/Dawson counties. These showers/storms are
expected to shift east across portions of Nebraska through the
early morning hours. Lower instability over Nebraska should
limit the strength of these storms, though a stronger core could
briefly produce small hail. These showers/storms are expected
to move east of the forecast area by the mid-late morning hours
(~10am).

Skies clear from west to east during the daytime hours, though low
stratus may linger across eastern portions of the area into the
afternoon. Winds start the day southerly but shift to the
west/southwest behind a dryline. Highs today will be in the upper
70s to upper 80s warmest in the west where skies clear the soonest.
Models indicate that the best chances for precipitation are east of
the area, closer to the NE/IA border. If a storm were to form in the
area this afternoon, it would be most likely to impact locations
along Highway 81, though the forecast for Sunday afternoon/evening
is currently dry.

Southwesterly flow sits over the area on Monday with a low over the
west/Rockies and a ridge over the Midwest. Highs on Monday climb
into the 80s under partly cloudy skies. The next disturbance
associated with western troughing brings the next chance for rain to
the area. Storms are favored to develop over Western NE/KS and move
into the area during the evening hours. Of note/focus is the
potential for an MCS to develop across portions of central/northern
Kansas which would carry an overall higher threat for damaging wind
gusts. Details will become clearer over the next 24-36 hours as we
move deeper into the range of Hi-res model guidance. Otherwise the
forecast remains on track with highs generally in the 80s and off an
on chances for showers/storms (mainly evening-overnight). Details on
any severe chances will be come clearer as we get closer in time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Looks like it will be fairly active across the local area this
evening as CU is just starting to get agitated along the
dryline across southwestern Kansas. Despite fairly marginal
shear, this CU will be moving into an area of increased (and
very strong) instability which will help fuel explosive growth
as they track northward towards the local area. This will most
likely favor some large hail and strong wind gust potential as
the storms expand and merge, but if a few storms are able to
remain discrete, an isolated tornado (as advertised by SPC) will
also be possible across our local area.

This activity across southwestern Kansas this afternoon is only
one area of concern, and a separate area of convection is
anticipated to develop across the high plains to our west in
response to an upper level low rotating across northern
Colorado. Eventually, these two clusters of storms may merge
across the local area by mid to late evening as it lifts
northeast of the area overnight. As these lines of storms merge,
the main threat should transition to strong winds late tonight,
with some possible sub-severe redevelopment hinted at in its
wake during the pre-dawn hours Sunday.

Thereafter...the main upper level low will then lift north
toward Montana by Sunday afternoon, with a weak west
southwesterly flow steering addition weak disturbances across
the local area as we go through the upcoming work week. While
Sunday afternoon/evening looks fairly quiet, this will result in
periodic, mainly evening/night-time chances for thunderstorms
across the local area, along with seasonably warm temperatures
through the end of the extended periods. Overall, the best shot
for some severe weather appears to be with the late afternoon
and evening convection today, but cannot rule out more isolated
chances for strong or severe storms later in the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Scattered thunderstorms are possible at KGRI/KEAR through the
mid-morning hours. Around sunrise, MVFR stratus is expected to
develop over the area. There is a chance this lowers to IFR
though confidence is too low to include in the TAF at this time.
There is uncertainty on how low this sub-VFR stratus lingers.
Current guidance favors it lingering through the late morning
hours, clearing sometime during the early afternoon hours. KEAR
would be first to clear though given the uncertainty have kept
the same duration of MVFR ceilings at KEAR and KGRI. Once skies
clear this afternoon, VFR conditions are expected through the
end of the TAF period. Southeast winds shift to the south this
morning, but remain fairly light, though KEAR may see more
SWerly of a wind.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi