626
FXUS63 KGID 212322
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
622 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The first of a few upper level shortwave disturbances moves
  into the region late tonight-Wed, bringing increasing
  precipitation chances. These chances look to mainly favor the
  northeastern half of the coverage area.

- Additional disturbances bring precipitation chances mainly
  during the Wed evening-Thur AM and Thur evening-Fri AM time
  frames...with relative lulls in between. By the time it`s all
  said and done Friday AM...there is the potential for a decent
  swath of at least 0.5" of rain, with models currently favoring
  the central and northeastern portions of the area.

- A drier forecast returns for the end of the week and
  weekend...and after highs in the 70s-80s Wed and Thu, highs
  climb back into the 90s-100 for Sat-Mon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 407 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Currently through this evening...

As expected, been a more pleasant afternoon across the region
today. Looking aloft...upper air and satellite data showing a
well amplified pattern across the CONUS, with continued
northwesterly flow in place across the Central Plains...sitting
between ridging extending from the Srn Plains northwestward into
the Pac NW and troughing running from the Hudson Bay area
southward toward the SE Coast. At the surface, the cold front
which pushed south through the area Mon-Mon night lies generally
along the KS/OK border...bringing mid-afternoon temperatures
today in the mid 80s-near 90, vs the highs around 100 we had on
Monday. In addition to the cooler temps, dewpoints are roughly
10 degrees lower...currently sitting in the mid 50s to low 60s
for most.

Had a narrow swath of isolated showers and storms gradually work
their way south across portions of south central NE last night
into this morning. This activity gradually waned with
time...with this afternoon being dry.

Expecting little change as we get into the evening hours...dry
conditions continue, with sfc high pressure sliding off to our
east, bringing more of an easterly component to the overall
light winds.

Late tonight through Thursday night...

This mid-week period continues to be the most active of this
entire 7-day forecast period, with periodic upper levels
disturbances bringing the potential for much-welcome rainfall.
As nice as it would be to say this will be a period of non-stop,
gentle rain...this will be coming in waves, with potentially
heavy rates at times.

Expecting little change overall in the upper level northwesterly
flow tonight into Wednesday...with the first of these shortwave
upper level disturbances looking to start working its way in
mainly after midnight. Models showing this wave not being an
overly strong one...with some runs showing QPF potentially more
scattered in nature, though most focus the better chances
roughly across the NNErn half of the forecast area. If anything
models have trended back on how long through the day activity
lasts...showing the brunt potentially over around midday or so,
leaving little else but some lingering isolated precip around
the rest of the afternoon.

After that lull...models showing the potential for another
couple of shortwave disturbances to push through the region.
The timing is not too unlike the first...mainly affecting the
evening/overnight-early morning hours Wed night-Thu AM and Thu
night-Fri AM, with the potential for a relative lull during a
chunk of the daytime hours. Models showing that these
disturbances are stronger, having better potential to dig a bit
further south into the ridging, allowing it to track more over
the heart of the area vs riding around the NErn edge.

Expecting some thunderstorms embedded in this mid-week
activity...and while deeper layer isn`t bad, models are in
pretty good agreement showing that instability is
lacking...keeping the overall threat for severe weather during
this period on the lower side. With more southerly flow
returning with time, expecting better moisture to gradually
return, esp. for those Wed night-early Fri AM chances...bringing
increasing PWAT values and potential for heavier rainfall
rates. Outside of the GFS/GEFS, most other models showing good
potential for a decent swath of at least 0.5" of rain by the
time it`s all said and done...mainly across the central-NErn
portions of the forecast area. ECMWF ensembles even continue to
have fairly high probabilities of 1" or more (70+
percent)...again mostly driven by that Wed night-Fri AM period.
Will see how upcoming model runs trend with the finer details.

Friday and on...

For the end of the week on through the upcoming weekend and
start of the new week...models continue to show that upper
level ridging reamplifying (to varying degrees depending on the
model), drying the period back out. Temperatures also climb back
up...after highs Wed- Thu in the 70s-80s, the heat returns by
this weekend-Mon with highs back well into the 90s-near
100...including heat index values near 105.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions favored through TAF period. A cluster of
scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms move into the TAF
sites around sunrise, first at KEAR. A period of steady showers
looks likely enough that a prevailing -SHRA group was included
with PROB30 to indicate the embedded thunderstorm
potential. Showers/storms look weak enough that sub-VFR
VSBY/CIGS appear unlikely. By the afternoon, rain becomes more
scattered as it comes to an end (ending first at KEAR). Light
easterly winds overnight strengthen slightly during the morning
hours, and increase again Wednesday afternoon where gusts of
20-25kts are possible at KEAR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Davis