127
FXUS63 KGID 070911
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
411 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Hot, dry, and windy Labor Day ahead with highs in the 90s, flirting
with triple digits in north central Kansas. Southerly winds 15-20mph
are expected in the afternoon, occasionally gusting 30-35mph.

-Chances for scattered showers (40-60%) begin overnight Monday and
continue through Tuesday. Some storms could be strong to severe.

-Another warm day on Tuesday, especially for southern portions of
our area, though a cold front passing through our area will begin to
bring temperatures closer to seasonal averages.

-High temperatures of Wednesday will be closer to seasonal
 averages for the whole area with highs in the low-mid 80s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 403 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

The stubborn ridge remains in place bringing another hot day to our
area. High temperatures are expect to be in the low-to-upper 90s for
the entire area with some areas in Kansas flirting with the triple
digits. Additionally, heat index values once again reach into the
mid 90s-low 100s. As a surface low begins moving into western South
Dakota it will pull some stronger southerly winds through our area,
peaking in the late afternoon/evening hours. Winds 15-25mph are
expected with some areas gusting as high as 30-35mph. While the
daytime hours are expected to remain storm-free, a
shortwave/disturbance ejecting from the upper-level trough brings
storm chances back beginning in the evening/overnight hours Monday.

The trough over the northwest begins to track eastward across the
Rockies and upper-level heights finally start to gradually fall over
the plains providing some reprieve from the heat. That being
said, highs on Tuesday could still reach upper 80s-90s for most
of the area with southern portions of the area reaching the
upper 90s-low 100s. Additionally southern portions of our area
could reach heat index values up to 106 degrees which could
warrant a Heat Advisory. However, as the surface low continues
to progress eastward on Tuesday it will bring a cold front
through our area from the northwest to the southeast. Timing of
this front will have effects on the high temps and adds
uncertainty to the forecast. Additionally, as the cold front
progresses it will bring better chances (40-60%) for precip as
storms form in the warm sector along and ahead of the front.
While most storms will be sub- severe, there will be enough
instability and shear that the strongest storms could produce
severe gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to the size of quarters.
Should the cold front progress faster than forecast, or should
an abundance of storms form ahead of the front, high temps
could underperform current forecast values.

By Wednesday, upper-heights come down closer to the seasonal average
with zonal/slight troughing pattern over the plains. The post-
frontal environment will yield temperatures much closer to seasonal
values, with highs in the low-mid 80s. Precipitation chances are
lower (<10%) on Wednesday though a brief isolated shower cannot be
completely ruled out.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

An upper ridge extends from Texas and New Mexico northward to
Nebraska. A shortwave trough has moved across Nebraska today which
has resulted in showers and thunderstorms and is now located over
northeast Nebraska. Some redevelopment of showers and storms is
beginning to occur across portions of the area and may continue into
this evening. High temperatures today are expected to range from the
mid/upper 80s to the mid 90s. Some areas may experience heat index
values around 100 degrees this afternoon. Low temperatures tonight
will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s with southeast winds around 5 to
15 MPH.

Winds will increase out of the south at around 15 to 30 MPH with
gusts up to around 40 MPH Monday afternoon as a surface trough
strengthens to the west of the area. High temperatures on Monday
will generally range from the lower 90s to around 100 degrees. Heat
index values will generally range from the mid 90s to around 104
degrees with widespread values near or above 100 degrees. Low
temperatures Monday night will range from the mid 60s to the
mid/upper 70s. Rain and storm chances increase (up to 70%) Monday
evening into Monday night from the northwest associated with a
shortwave and low-level jet and in advance of an approaching cold
front. Some of these storms may become strong to marginally severe
with large hail and damaging winds.

The upper ridge over the area will get flattened by an upper trough
moving over the northern Plains on Tuesday. A cold front will move
into the area on Tuesday. High temperatures across the area on
Tuesday could range from the mid 80s in the north to over 100
degrees in the southern portion of the forecast area. Heat index
values across southern and eastern portions of the area are expected
to be around 100 to 106 degrees. A Heat Advisory may be needed for
southeast portions of the forecast area. Some showers, and possibly
isolated thunderstorms, may linger through Tuesday morning across
areas along and behind the cold front. More redevelopment of showers
and storms is expected during the afternoon (up to near 60% chance)
and continuing into Tuesday night (up to around 80% chance). Some of
these storms may become strong to severe with large hail and
damaging winds due to instability, wind shear, and lift.

Cooler temperatures will be present on Wednesday behind the cold
front with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s. Low temperatures
Wednesday night may get down to the mid 50s to mid 60s with clearing
skies and light winds. Fairly similar temperatures will be present
on Thursday as those on Wednesday. A warm up is expected on Friday
with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s ahead of a cold front. The cold
front will bring temperatures down into the 80s and low 90s for
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Primary concern for this TAF period remains with the gusty winds
expected during the daytime hours on Monday. Currently have this
TAF period remaining VFR...though there is a bit of uncertainty
in that through the rest of tonight into the early morning
hours...as satellite imagery shows a batch of lower level
stratus meandering around the area. Guidance/models are in
pretty good agreement keeping the terminals VFR...but will be
something to monitor in the coming hours. Starting mid-morning
Monday and lasting through the afternoon hours, expecting
southerly winds to ramp up...and gusts near 30 MPH will be
possible at both terminal sites...before tapering off during the
evening hours. Kept the forecast dry for KGRI...but did
introduce a PROB30 group running from 03-06Z at KEAR, as models
show increasing potential for at least some scattered activity
working that far east before the end of this TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...McGrew
DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...ADP