Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 271744

National Weather Service Hastings NE
1244 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022

Warm and dry conditions continue today, but a more active pattern
will bring several chances for thunderstorms through the Memorial
Day weekend.

Today, temperatures should return to the 80s across the entire
area, and possibly even the low 90s in the west. This will occur
under mostly clear skies and breezy south winds. A few showers and
thunderstorms may develop over western Nebraska and approach the
area during the evening and overnight, but due to increasing
inhibition, this activity is expected to dissipate before
reaching our forecast area.

The warming trend continues on Saturday, with continued ridging
aloft and southerly winds at the low levels. Highs are expected to
reach the upper 80s to 90s. Again, convection is expected to
develop west of the area during the afternoon as a broad upper
trough slowly pushes in from the west. With the continued
warm/moist advection, this activity will have a more favorable
airmass and has a better chance to hold together as it reaches
central Nebraska. A marginally severe storm or two is possible as
well if these storms do impact the area.

Sunday will remain warm, and more importantly, chances for
thunderstorms increase as the upper trough slowly pushes into the
area and a surface front stalls in/near the forecast area. Model
guidance indicates that the main threat for severe will be to our
east/northeast where there is more instability, but strong deep-
layer shear (50kts+) and modest instability (1000-2000J/kg of
MUCAPE in our east) will still support at least a brief severe
threat for portions of our area.

Late Sunday night into Monday will be breezy for portions of the
area, particularly in southeastern portions of the area that will
remain on the warm side of the front. This stalled front will
then be a focus point for thunderstorm development in the late
afternoon through the evening. Obviously, there is considerable
uncertainty in details, including the exact positioning of this
front, but it is likely that portions of the area (especially the
southeastern half) will be impacted by thunderstorms, some of
which will probably be severe.

Low chances for showers and thunderstorms continue Tuesday and
perhaps even into Wednesday as the trough ejects and a secondary
shortwave moves through. But the severe threat will decrease
significantly due to cooler air and decreased shear. Speaking of
cooler air, Wednesday will be a relatively cool day for the
beginning of June (highs in the upper 60s and low 70s). Late next
week looks to remain mostly dry with temperatures slowly trending
back upwards.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Saturday)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022

The south southwest wind at the start of the TAF period will
quickly become a bit more southeasterly by mid afternoon and
increase with some gusts up around 20 mph. The wind will the
decrease this evening once the sun goes down and vary from
southeast to southerly into Saturday morning. Strong low level
wind shear is likely through much of the late evening and
overnight period. A few high clouds will move into the region
tonight, but VFR conditions will persist.




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