205
FXUS63 KGID 092108
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
408 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions continue on into this evening, but similar to
  this morning, some isolated showers/thunderstorms may develop
  across mainly western portions of the area late tonight into
  early Tuesday morning. Any storms are not expected to be
  severe.

- Tuesday brings another hot and breezy day to the area. Normal
  highs for this time of year are in the low-mid 80s, forecast
  highs are in the low 90s for most of the area. Southerly winds
  with gusts of 20-30 MPH are expected.

- Overall dry forecast continues on through the weekend, though
  there are some low confidence 20-percent chances in the
  forecast Friday night and Sunday night. Also not out of the
  question some precip chances may need to be added to the
  forecast for Tuesday night into Wednesday AM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2024

Currently...

Been mainly a dry day across the area today, the exception being
early this morning, when a few isolated showers/storms drifted
across the western half of the forecast area...which diminished
by mid-morning. Looking aloft, upper air and satellite data show
overall weaker, generally westerly flow in place across the
region, as a couple of shortwave disturbances work their way
through the Central/Northern Plains. Cloud cover has been spotty
through the day, most locations have been mostly clear. At the
surface, high pressure sits over portions of the Midwest/mid-
Atlantic Coast regions, while a trough of low pressure is
extended through the High Plains. This has kept winds southerly
across the forecast area, and with a bit of tightened pressure
gradient, have again seen wind gusts of 20-30 MPH this
afternoon. Hasn`t been any big surprises as far as high
temperatures go, with 3PM obs mostly in the upper 80s to
mid-90s.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

Expecting dry conditions to continue on across the area this
evening for most locations, on through the overnight hours.
Similar to this morning, as we get into the early morning hours
of Tuesday, some models (to varying degrees) are showing the
potential for another round of isolated activity to develop.
Overall lift is on the weaker side, looking to mainly form along
the western edge of an increased low-level jet...and like this
morning, models show activity starting off over our western edge
and gradually shifting east with time. Can`t rule out some
rumbles of thunder, but deeper layer shear/instability expected
to be on the low side. Activity is expected to diminish during
the morning hours on Tuesday as lift wanes...so have low
precipitation chances (20 percent) in the forecast from the
09-15Z time period. Have the rest of the day Tuesday being
dry...but can`t totally rule out a shower/storm or two lingering
beyond 15Z, will see how things trend tonight. Otherwise,
Tuesday looking to be another day of breezy southerly winds and
well above normal temperatures. Not looking at any big changes
with the surface pattern, with models showing any notable
frontal boundary remaining west of the forecast area...so
especially for central and eastern portions, gusts of 20-30 MPH
are not out of the question. Normal highs for this time of year
are mainly in the low-mid 80s, with forecast highs for Tuesday
not significantly different than today, with plenty of lower 90s
expected.

For late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, not out of the
question that a sprinkle mention or some low precip chances (20
percent) may need to be added to the forecast...decided to hold
off for now, will see how tonight pans out. Otherwise, another
dry and warm day is expected for Wednesday. Models show
continued overall weak upper level flow, as the the region sits
between ridging extending in from the west, TS Francine working
its way toward the Gulf Coast, and another strong upper
low/trough moving into the Pac NW. The surface pattern looks to
continue to be largely driven by troughing thorugh the High
Plains, bringing another day of breezy southerly winds to the
forecast area. Highs currently not notably different than
today/Tuesday, with highs around 90 forecast.

Regarding fire weather, though fuels are not quite to the point
where widespread issues are expected...the expected highs near
90 and little in the way of precipitation will continue the
process of drying things out...so there is at least an elevated
concern for both Tuesday and Wednesday.

Late work week into the weekend...

Overall, the forecast for Thursday through Sunday for the area is
mostly dry. Do have some low precipitation chances (mainly 20
percent) in there for Friday night and again Sunday night, but
confidence at this point is pretty low. Hard to say with a high
degree of certainty how the finer details of the upper level pattern
will pan out...as the upper level low/trough pushes east from the
West Coast, but just how far before turning more northeast will be
affected by the remnants of Francine that will be working their way
north. Not out of the question we just end up situated between the
two and have little/no precip affect our area...will just have to
see how things trend in the coming days. As far as temperatures go,
not looking at any notable swings either way...forecast highs are
mainly in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period, and kept the
forecast dry, though it`s not totally out of the question there
could be some isolated light activity around the area near
sunrise Tuesday...just not enough confidence at this point to
put in a mention. Expecting gusty south-southwesterly winds
through the period, especially during the daytime hours...but
the threat for LLWS continues, and have the mention going at
both sites starting at 03Z this evening and ending by mid-
morning Tuesday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP