Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 182034
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
334 PM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021

Turning out to be a pretty nice way to end the weekend across the
area, with plenty of sun and temps climbing well into the 50s to
lower 60s. Aloft, upper air and satellite data showing NNWrly
flow in place across the region...with the CWA sitting between one
disturbance making its way across MO and the next sliding SSE out
of central Canada. Outside of a bit of fair weather/peak heating
CU scattered around, skies have been clear. At the sfc, high
pressure sits over the Srn Plains, while a cold front approaches
from the Dakotas. Winds across the CWA have been NWrly through the
day, and with plenty of sun allowing for a bit of mixing, obs
show some occasional gusts around 15-20 MPH...but overall,
sustained speeds have been around 10-15 MPH.

Tonight through Monday night...

Another chance for some accumulating snow still in the forecast,
mainly affecting the Monday/Monday night time frame.

Models remain in pretty good agreement showing the continued
southward push of the shortwave trough out of Canada, with the
main impact expected during the evening/overnight hours tonight
being with the passage of the accompanying sfc cold front. There
are some slight differences between models even now with the
timing of the front, with most models (including hi-res) showing
it around the I- 80/HWY 6 corridors around 06Z tonight and right
along the southern CWA boundary by 12Z Mon. Little, if any,
precipitation is currently expected prior to 12Z Mon. The
exception would be across the far northern fringe of the CWA,
where the increased mid-level forcing will be approaching.
Currently only have PoPs in the 09-12Z period.

During the daytime hour period on Monday (12Z-00Z), there are
still some differences between models with just how much
activity will continue across the CWA. Depending on the model, the
initial push of increased mid-level forcing wanes/shifts east,
potentially leaving little activity between it an the second
disturbance that is sinking south through the High Plains. Have
PoPs ranging from 20-50% across primarily our Neb. counties, where
what lingering mid-level forcing there is will line up. Main
change to the forecast for the daytime hours was to trend high
temperatures down area-wide. With the cold front moving in
tonight, thinking is that for most locations the calendar-day high
may occur right around midnight, and with colder air advection,
increased clouds, and precip chances, temps will struggle to do
much during the day. Forecast temps during the day tomorrow range
from the mid 30s in the WNW to mid 40s in the SE.

The best chances for precipitation are expected between 00Z-12Z
tomorrow night-Tues AM, as that next shortwave disturbance moves
out onto the Central Plains. The most recent run of models have
continued the southward trend to the better QPF/snow, which would
give the southern half of our CWA the best chances.

As far as precip types go, with colder air advecting in, snow
remains a concern, especially during the evening/overnight/morning
hours. During the daytime hours, sfc temps are more marginal and
less favorable for any snow accumulations. Current forecast
amounts range from around 0.5"/less north of a Kearney/Geneva
line, increasing to right around 2" at the NE/KS state line, then
around 3" in Osborne/Mitchell Counties in KS. Following collab
with neighboring KS WFOs, decided to issue a Winter Wx for KS
counties with those higher snow amounts...running from Monday
evening through early Tuesday AM.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

The forecast for this period is currently dry, with models showing
continued northwesterly flow aloft in the wake of this latest
system. Confidence in Tuesday being totally dry is not the highest.
Models are in pretty good with the better lift with this system
moving east of the CWA Tuesday morning, but there is some concern
there could be a few lingering showers, esp during the afternoon
hours. Confidence is a little higher in Wednesday being dry. Not
looking at much improvement in high temperatures, with both days
well below normal...forecast has mid 40s for Tues, upper 40s-low 50s
for Wed.

Thursday and on...

Additional preciptiation chances return to the forecast for Thursday
and Friday, as models showing the potential for a couple quick
moving shortwave disturbances to pass through the region. Confidence
in any one model solution is pretty low, so didn`t stray from the
generally 20-30% chances from the NBM. Dry conditions return for
Saturday. Expecting gradual warming trend into the start of the
weekend, with highs int the 60s for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Monday)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021

Quiet weather with VFR conditions are expected for the majority of
this TAF period, with deteriorating conditions as we get to/past
sunrise Monday morning. An upper level system swinging south
through the region will push a cold front through the area this
evening, bringing a more NNWrly push of winds to the terminals.
The lowering ceilings and increased precipitation chances lag a
bit behind the sfc cold front, and have MVFR ceilings arriving at
11Z Monday morning. Precipitation chances look to be somewhat
scattered in nature initially, so decided to go with just a VCSH
mention at this point.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday
     for KSZ007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP


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