802
FXUS65 KGJT 051715
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1015 AM MST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A winter system impacting the northern Colorado mountains will
  continue through this afternoon. A Winter Weather Advisory is
  in effect for the Elkhead and Park Mountains until 5 PM.

- Another system arrives tonight with more widespread
  accumulations and stronger winds at the high elevations.
  Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for portions of the
  northern and central Colorado mountains Friday evening through
  Saturday evening.

- Unsettled weather continues through the coming work week in
  the northern Colorado mountains with mostly periods of light
  snow showers. Elsewhere across the region, look for a general
  warming trend, but the snow covered mountains valleys will
  see cold inversions set up overnight lasting through the days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 309 AM MST Fri Dec 5 2025

Models are in good agreement with satellite imagery with the high
centered about 500 miles off the Northern California Coast, a low
circulation off Baja, and deep troughing over the Plains States.
This pattern gives eastern Utah and Western Colorado a straight shot
of systems out of the Gulf of Alaska descending through the Pacific
Northwest into the region keeping unsettled weather in the forecast.
The midlevel pressure gradients remain strong supporting stronger
orographic lift for the next few days. The left exit region of the
jet passes over the northern areas today, but it coincides with a
dry slot to limit showers this afternoon. Look for snow showers to
continue along and north of the I-70 corridor today with the heavier
snow showers through the morning hours as the shortwave passes, and
tapering off through the afternoon as the drier air moves in. Kept
the Winter Weather Advisory in place through 5 PM for the Elkhead
and Park mountains through today for generally four to eight inches
snow with locally higher amounts possible in favored terrain.

Another surge of deeper moisture moves into the region overnight
tonight with the start of the next, much stronger winter storm. Look
for snow showers to pick up through the evening over the Park Range,
and spreading west into the Elkhead Mountains and south across the
Flat Tops to Grand Mesa and the Elk and West Elk Mountains overnight.
THe heaviest snow will fall through the overnight into Saturday
afternoon with showers tapering off through the late afternoon and
evening. QPF increased significantly in the latest package; tempered
it by blending it with the last run. Also went with WPC snow ratios
through these two storms as the NBM`s were ridiculously high. Even
still, two to three feet of new snow is possible on the northwestern
face of the Park Range at higher elevations. Kept the current Winter
Storm Warnings in place for Zones 4, 13, 10 and 12 with Winter
Weather Advisories for Zones 5 and 8, and Zone 9 above 8,000 feet.
Expect hazardous winter driving conditions on the roads and passes
across the northern and central Colorado mountains through Sunday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 309 AM MST Fri Dec 5 2025

The high IVT airmass will be flushing eastward as we move into
Saturday night on the back part of this second storm. Even though
QPF amounts look to be waning colder air moving aloft... with a dip
in the jet aloft...will boost the snow-2-liquid ratios and northerly
orographics will continue to add to snow totals. The bulk of the
heaviest snow should be done by sunrise on Sunday but a moist
dendritic layer remains over the northern and central divide
mountains through early afternoon. Warm air advection kicks in
through the afternoon as the jet shifts onto the Plains and this
stabilized the column and most showers should be ending by sunset.
The upcoming week looks to be milder as we flush the colder air out.
The downstream edge of the strong blocking high over the EPac will
slowly ooze inland and this will help keep the colder air well to
our north where the main storm track will be. That is not to say we
remain dry as our northern high mountains will remain on the edge of
the mositure plume and we will see off and on snow chances through
the week. For the most part these will be just be glancing blows and
the snow amounts remain light with each one. Totaled up however we
could see another foot of snow over the high peaks of the Park Range
through Thursday. Temperatures look to slowly warm through the week
and be some 10 to 15 degrees above normal from mid- week onwards.
This is likely to be hampered in some of the valleys where the
residual snow pack is deeper. This will also keep a mixture of rain
and snow in the forecast in the valleys adjacent to the northern and
central mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1009 AM MST Fri Dec 5 2025

Low to mid clouds and light snow showers are currently impacting
KHDN, KRIL, KEGE and KASE improving this afternoon. The next
storm system moves in from the northwest bringing MVFR to LIFR
conditions and ILS breakpoints for a majority of the sites later
tonight and into the end of the taf period.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for
     COZ004.
     Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM MST
     Saturday for COZ004-013.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM MST
     Saturday for COZ005.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST
     Saturday for COZ008-009.
     Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST
     Saturday for COZ010-012.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGJT