404
FXUS63 KGLD 090859
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
259 AM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Air temperatures nearing 100-105 are forecast through Tuesday.
  Heat indices may approach 105 along and east of Highway 83 in
  Kansas.

- Isolated storms with dry lightning and possibly wind gusts up
  to 60 mph are forecast to develop south of Interstate 70 this
  afternoon. Additional fire starts due to lightning is possible
  as humidity is forecast to be in the low to mid teens.

- Another round of strong to severe storms is forecast during
  the evening hours and may linger past midnight. Wind gusts up
  to 70 mph and hail around half dollar size are possible

- Storm chances continue daily the next few days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1218 AM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026

High pressure remains located across the Rockies with weak
embedded waves continuing to bring light showers and virga this
evening across western portions of the area. Winds are forecast
to remain from the southwest through the night as a surface low
moves over the forecast area. Due to this have raised overnight
low temperatures a few degrees with the area forecast in the
mid 60s to low 70s. Far northern portions of Dundy, Hitchcock
and Red Willow county may again see fog and stratus overnight
and into the morning as subtle boundary is seen in observations
with low to mid 70 dew points and easterly winds continuing.

Sunday, high pressure broadens out but another hot day is in store
as high temperatures are forecast again in the 100s. The warmest is
forecast to be across the east where air temperatures are again
forecast to exceed 105 degrees. With the dry air in place however
heat indices are forecast to be less than the air temperature
which keeps heat indices at or less than 105. Due to the low
over the area winds are forecast to be significantly lighter
than Saturday with mainly light and variable winds forecast for
most of the day. This will help us temper how much additional
we may warm and limit how low we may fall dew point and humidity
wise. Due to this and the marginal nature am opting to hold off
on a Heat Advisory at this time. Into the late afternoon and
evening a shortwave is forecast to move into the area leading to
another potential for showers and storms developing along the
Palmer Divide and into eastern Colorado. Dry lighting again is
the main concern which could again lead to fire related starts.
The overall threat for wind gusts doesn`t appear to be as strong
as it was on Saturday but still think that a gust or two up to
70 mph could still occur. Dust is less of a concern after seeing
what occurred Saturday as mixing heights are forecast to be
even higher which further suggests that dust will mix out into
the atmosphere quickly. Isolated cells are forecast to develop
as early as 1pm MT similar to Sunday mainly due to convective
temperatures being breached, this looks to favor along and south
of Interstate 70. The potential for better coverage exists with
the shortwave during the evening which would have the better
potential for gusts up to 70 mph especially if a cold pool were
to develop. There could be a conditional large hail threat that
could materialize as some guidance indicates potential for
0-6km bulk shear to increase to around 35 knots. This combined
with steep lapse rates in excess of 8.0 c/km and MUCAPE of 3000
j/kg could lead to some hail around half dollar size along and
north of Highway 36 during the evening time frame. Confidence in
severe weather is around 20% at this time.

These storms may be able to persist longer along with some
redevelopment potential along the nose of an 850mb jet across the
east which overruns a warm front. . Not overly excited on rainfall
amounts again, even with the overnight potential as all
soundings show a large dry layer from around 850-600mb. Do have
some concern for some heat burst overnight however due very
steep lapse rates and high amounts of MUCAPE remaining in
place. Also was noting that the 00Z HRRR was indicating this
potential as well with localized significant drops on its
surface humidity output. This potential will need to be watched.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Sat Aug 8 2026

***Monday/Tuesday***

A 500-mb high looks to be overhead Monday morning, with the main jet
stream flow to the north of the forecast area. GEFS and EC ensembles
suggest that this feature will remain in place through Tuesday. Weak
surface flow underneath the high would allow for higher temperatures
to continue Monday and Tuesday, with highs forecast in the upper 90s
to mid 100s both days. Heat index values in the 100s are possible as
well, which may indicate the potential for Heat Advisories being
needed. However, a couple things that lower confidence for a
Heat Advisory include thunderstorms driven by an 850-mb low
across the Rockies, and a cold front that may come through the
area as early as Tuesday afternoon according to forecast
guidance. That being said, thunderstorm potential appears to be
relatively scattered, and begin during the evening hours both
days. Additionally, northerly winds on Tuesday don`t look to be
strong enough to produce significant cooling. As such confidence
in a Heat Advisory being needed is around 30% each for Monday
and Tuesday.

Regarding thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday, GFS, EC, and NAMNST
soundings show inverted-V profiles up to around 500-mb. So, while
sfc-500mb wind shear is favored to remain 30 kts or less, there is
potential for microbursts with thunderstorms. Locally high winds
around 60-70 mph would be possible under this scenario. Even so,
confidence in severe weather occurring is about 5-10% for each
Monday and Tuesday. It is also important to note that relative
humidities (RH) may drop below 20% both days, particularly across
portions of East-Central Colorado, and West-Central Kansas. This is
nearing criteria for critical fire weather conditions (15% or less),
though wind gusts above 20 mph seem unlikely at this time. Thus,
confidence in critical fire weather conditions being in place is
less than 5%. However, lightning from thunderstorms may serve as an
additional source for fire starts Monday and Tuesday.


***Wednesday-Saturday***

Model guidance begins to diverge by Wednesday. There are indications
that a stronger cold front may come through the area associated with
a strengthening trough in Southeast Canada. Forecast guidance
suggests that this will place highs in the low to mid 90s Wednesday,
and 70s and 80s Thursday through the end of the week. Even so,
ensemble guidance appears to be in favor of a ridge axis remaining
in place over the forecast area, with troughing across the Western
United States. This may suggest the potential for the warmer end of
these ranges being experienced for highs. Persistence of the 850-mb
low across the Rockies along with troughing to the west at 500-mb
may allow thunderstorms to develop during this period as well.
Confidence in severe weather occurring during this period is
relatively low, as sfc-500mb wind shear is primarily less than 30
kts according to GFS and EC model soundings. Additionally, LREF
guidance suggests that most days in this range have less than a 50%
chance of experiencing vertical wind shear greater than 30 kts. The
exception is Thursday, where there is up to a 60% chance for greater
than 30 kt shear in Southwest Nebraska. Even so, confidence in
severe weather occurring during this period is around 5% or
less.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1113 PM MDT Sat Aug 8 2026

**3am MT Update: Fog has set in quicker than previously
 anticipate at MCK. The ceiling on the KMCK ASOS is down until
 further notice, so have included an AMD NOT SKED due to the low
 stratus concern.**

VFR conditions are currently forecast for at least the first
few hours of this TAF period. Based on how a boundary is setting
up near MCK where moisture has returned into the upper 60s so
have a concern for some stratus and fog again similar what to
the REFS shows. MCK winds are forecast to be light and variable
which will also help the stratus and fog, but GLD is forecast to
remain around 15 knots sustained with some occasional gusts
around 20 knots at least for the first few hours. Each terminal
will have LLWS concerns as strong jet is in place. A low is
forecast to move over the area during the day leading to light
and variable winds for each terminal. Focus then turns to a
shortwave leading to another potential for showers and storms
Sunday evening and overnight for each terminal.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...Trigg