526
FXUS63 KGLD 062200
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
300 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a low (20-30%) chance for a snow squall to develop in
  northeast CO this aft-eve, mainly in Yuma/Kit Carson between
  3-9 PM MST. 1-3 inches of accumulating snow, N wind gusts up
  to 35 mph and significant reductions in visibility (below 1
  mile) with blowing snow may create locally treacherous travel
  conditions.

- Warm and dry late weekend through next week with fire weather
  concerns especially late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 254 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

Through Tonight: A modest upper level low centered in vicinity
of south-central CO at 21 UTC this afternoon (per 500 mb SPC
mesoanalysis and inference from regional radar trends) will
weaken / become increasingly sheared as it meanders east toward
the CO-KS border this afternoon into tonight. Ongoing
precipitation broadly associated with this feature will slowly
advance eastward from Sterling-Akron-Limon into western Kit
Carson/Yuma counties late this afternoon and evening. Simulated
reflectivity and precipitation forecasts via current and recent
runs of the HRRR and NAM NEST continue to indicate that the
majority of measurable precipitation (in the Goodland CWA) will
occur in western Yuma/Kit Carson counties between ~21Z this
afternoon and 03Z this evening. Surface temperatures/wetbulbs
via 21Z observations and thermal profiles via HRRR forecast
soundings suggest that, in most locations (i.e. south of Hwy
36).. precipitation will begin as rain, or a rain/snow mix,
before transitioning to snow. Snow accumulation potential will
be greatest in northern Yuma County, where thermal profiles are
readily supportive of snow and precip amounts will be greatest
(~0.10 to 0.20" liquid equivalent, 1-2" snow accum). Breezy
(25-35 mph) N winds and intermittent periods of moderate to
heavy snow may result in significant reductions in visibility
with blowing snow and locally treacherous travel conditions,
esp. along/north of Hwy 34 (Yuma-Wray) between 2230-0230 UTC
(330-730 pm MST).

This Weekend: Expect dry conditions and a noticeable warming
trend by the end of the weekend, with highs in the 50`s on
Saturday and upper 60`s to lower 70`s on Sunday.. when locally
critical fire weather is possible. With well above average
temperatures and minimum RH readings ~10-20%, relatively light
(10-20 mph) SW winds are the sole limiting factor on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 110 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

A secluded upper-level low looks to be in place over the
Southwest United States and Baja California Monday morning, as a
broad, deepening trough enters the United States from the
Pacific Northwest. As this takes place, a surface low is favored
to set up across portions of the Central High Plains. Surface
winds may be out of the west during the morning hours, but flip
southerly during the afternoon. As such, warm, dry conditions
are favored Monday afternoon, with highs in the mid to upper-70s
and relative humidities in the low to mid-teens across much of
the CWA. Critical fire weather is not yet a major concern, as
wind gusts are not currently forecast to meet criteria for the
hazard (25 mph winds or greater). However, GFS and ECMWF model
soundings for Monday afternoon indicate the potential for a
mixed layer up to about 1.5 km, which could allow stronger winds
to mix down to the surface. Winds at the top of the mixed layer
may reach a sustained 15-20 knots, which could produce wind
gusts 25 mph or greater if they reach the surface. Even so, NBM
guidance suggests about a 50% chance or less for wind gusts of
this magnitude to be experienced in Eastern Colorado, and even
less of a chance for the rest of the Tri- State area. These
gusts, if they can occur, are forecast to be brief during the
mid to late afternoon. While short spurts of locally critical
fire weather may be possible, confidence in a Red Flag Warning
being needed Monday sits around 5-10%.

As the trough from the Pacific Northwest digs southeast Monday
evening and into Tuesday, the secluded low in the Southwest
United States and Baja California Region looks to begin moving
eastward as it gets reabsorbed into the main jet stream flow.
This is introducing some uncertainty into the forecast, as
ridging out ahead of the formerly secluded low competes with
cold air from the digging trough. Forecast highs on Tuesday are
currently in the upper-60s to mid-70s, though NBM 75th-25th
percentile differences for max temperature are 15-20 degrees
across the CWA. This would indicate the possibility of high
temperatures 5-10 degrees higher or lower than the current
forecast. Should the cold front reach the forecast region during
the morning hours, cooler temperatures in this range may be
experienced. The opposite is true if the pattern progresses
slower and allows southerly to westerly flow to remain in place
through the afternoon. Additionally, as both of the upper-level
features move eastward, there may be a slight chance for
precipitation. Current guidance is centering on Tuesday evening
and night as the most likely period for precipitation to occur,
though could extend into Wednesday morning. Rain is the favored
precipitation type, though wintry precipitation could be
experienced overnight if temperatures can drop below freezing.
Forecasted lows Tuesday night are in the mid-20s to low-30s.

Troughing is favored overhead by Wednesday morning, with
northerly winds still in place from the cold front. Cooler
conditions are forecast, with high temperatures in the mid to
upper-50s. However, ridging upstream of these upper-level
features may allow a southerly return flow to develop during the
afternoon hours. Timing on this wind shift is a little
uncertain. If this process can occur during the early portions
of the afternoon, high temperatures may increase around 5
degrees, most particularly across portions of Eastern Colorado,
far Southwest Nebraska, and far Northwest Kansas. This is
represented in 10-13 degree differences in the 75th-25th
percentile max temperatures Wednesday afternoon.

Warm, dry conditions look to be in place for the remainder of
the forecast period. Southwesterly to westerly surface winds are
forecast to overspread the CWA Thursday afternoon in
association with ridging overhead and a surface cyclone moving
east- southeastward across the Northern Plains. Highs are
forecast in the low to mid-70s Thursday, with relative
humidities in the mid to upper-teens. Critical fire weather may
become a concern, as wind gusts 20-30 kts (23-35 mph) are
possible. Similar conditions are in the forecast Friday, with
highs in the 70s, relative humidities in the low to mid-teens,
and westerly to northwesterly wind gusts of 20- 35 kts (23-40
mph), which could once again create critical fire weather
conditions. Going into the weekend, cooler temperatures are
favored upon cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

Ongoing MVFR ceilings are likely to persist into tonight. A
period of IFR ceilings and/or light snow is possible this
evening (01-05Z Sat). Ceilings will lift/scatter late tonight,
with VFR conditions expected to return by sunrise Sat morning.
15-25 knot N winds will prevail this afternoon and evening.
Breezier (20-30 knot) N winds are possible in/near any
precipitation this evening. N winds will gradually back to the
NNW and NW overnight, decreasing to 10-15 knots by sunrise Sat.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...Vincent