601
FXUS63 KGLD 040620
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1220 AM MDT Fri Sep 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures continue through the weekend.

- Afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible (20-60%) through
  the start of next week. Best chances will be Saturday night.

- Limited severe weather threat. Heavy rain, cloud to ground
  lightening and isolated strong wind gusts primary concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1218 AM MDT Fri Sep 4 2026

02Z Water vapor imagery and RAP H4 analysis continues to
indicate trough deepening across the PAC NW with base of trough
now digging into northern CA. Ridge continues to amplify across
the central CONUS, with WSW flow aloft over Goodland CWA. At the
surface, stalled frontal zone was draped across southern most
zones extending to the west to developing front range low and
extending to the northeast towards KHSI.

Heat and thunderstorm chances,coverage and impacts are the primary
forecast concern through the weekend.

Today-Tonight...Potential for thunderstorms and more significant
cloud cover and the resulting impacts on temperature fields lowers
confidence somewhat in today`s forecast although general pattern
appears to be agreed upon by short range models. Low amplitude short
wave trough noted on RAP dynamic tropopause analysis will clear
the area by 12z, with isentropic forcing decreasing in response
to it`s departure and diurnal weakening of low level jet. While
there is 1000- 1500 j/kg of MUCAPE available, related CINH
values greater 250 j/kg and condensation pressure deficits
150-250 mb raise serious doubts if any meaningful convection
will initiate before sunrise. Will have to monitor for any
potential heat bursts this morning, but expect period to start
out dry. Question will then become when and where diurnally
driven storms will develop in the afternoon and evening hours.
Div Q vector fields indicate synoptic scale forcing is fairly
neutral with respect to ascent, so think any precipitation
chances will be tied to any organized/deep convergence zones
that develop in the afternoon. While frontal zone analyzed at
02Z will have lifted to the north of the area and become diffuse
through morning, weak dryline bisecting CWA by the afternoon
hours may be enough to trigger a few storms through the early
evening hours. Confidence in storm initation is low, and don`t
think I can justify more than 15- 30% pops at this point. High
based storms, 20-25 kts of deep layer shear and modest
instability lead me to think severe threat will be limited and
mainly tied to strong downdraft winds. Expect storms to be
strongly tied to diurnal heating with chances ending by 6z.

Saturday-Sunday...H5 ridge will continue to amplify through the day
although not seeing a corresponding jump in H85 temperatures as this
occurs. Latest GEFS showing little if any change between mean values
and 90th percentile...although appears to be more uncertainty on the
cooler side of the distribution. Going to keep temperatures closer
towards mean values/persistence at this point as there is not
strong support for a big swing in temps either way. Dewpoints
expected to climb across the area as next low amplitude trough
approaches the NE panhandle, inducing southeasterly flow across
much of the area. The increase in dewpoints with temperatures
aloft changing little will result in a significantly weaker cap
across the entire area. With weak forcing for ascent favoring
near sfc convergence across northeastern Colorado. With a
noticeably stronger signal for precipitation in operational and
ensemble data, Saturday evening looks to be the best chance in
the past week for seeing measurable rain, especially along KS/NE
border. As has been the case under this ridge, wind shear will
be limited so think severe weather threat will be limited and
mainly focused on strong wind gusts.

Little change in the upper level pattern as amplified H5 ridge
remains the primary synoptic influence over the CWA and likewise
think persistence may be the best route forward for the
forecast. Diurnal thunderstorms possible again, although signal
in model data weaker and a bit further north than on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 252 PM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Long-term guidance is currently suggesting that the tri-state area
should continue to see effects from a fairly strong longwave ridge,
slowly propagating across the plains and upper-midwest Monday. This
setup will keep our area in southwest flow aloft through most of the
forecast period. Model guidance is keying in on an upper-level
jet streak, which should begin to eject thru this ridge on
Tuesday. Deamplification of said ridge is expected through the
end of the four day timeframe, which should make the region more
susceptible to shortwave passages. At the surface, low-pressure
sets up over western Kansas through next Thursday. A slight
cool down, accompanied by daily chances for afternoon/evening
showers and thunderstorms is anticipated over the course of the
week due to lessened effects of the ridge.

Ensemble guidance is hinting at daily PoPs (Probability of
Precipitation) through Thursday of next week as shortwaves move
through the synoptic system. There is also medium confidence of a
frontal boundary setting up and moving through the county warning
area (CWA) late Tuesday into Wednesday. For Monday, PoPs
currently stand at 30-65% for locations north of I-70 with
chances south of the interstate being much lower. A more uniform
15-35% is forecasted for the area Tuesday. Wednesday and
Thursday should follow suit with a bit more modest 15-30% PoPs.
Dewpoints are forecasted in the mid 50s to 60s, providing ample
moisture to the environment. Confidence of thunderstorms forming
in the CWA is low at this point in time due to lower
instability values forecasted across the region.

Unseasonably hot and breezy conditions will persist throughout the
region as the ridge evolves. High temperatures in the low to upper
90s Monday transition to more upper 80s/low 90s by Thursday. Low
temperatures should follow a similar pattern, going from 60s/70s to
more uniform 60s across the CWA. Surface winds are forecasted to
start off Monday at 15-20 mph, gusting up to 30 mph. The stronger
winds will occur on the more northern and western areas of the tri-
state region, 15-30 mph are expected there along with gusts up to 40
mph. Winds should weaken for the remainder of the forecast period,
as 5-15 mph is anticipated, with gusts up to 25 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1006 PM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

For KGLD and KMCK, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF
period. There is potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms
for the area Friday, but low confidence in any affecting either
terminal.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...KMK/AMP
AVIATION...Rhoades