194
FXUS63 KGLD 160524
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1124 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to develop over
  portions of the area Thursday afternoon and evening, mainly
  in northwest KS and southwest NE. A brief severe storm capable
  of producing quarter size hail and/or 60 mph wind gusts is
  possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 309 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Showers and thunderstorms have been developing most of the day
along the leading edge of the upper low/trough with an
associated saturated level in the mid-levels. The showers and
storms continue through the early afternoon, but should lift
north out of the area by the end of the afternoon. The exception
is for Eastern Colorado as the line has been arched in a more
southwest to northeast orientation. With additional development
and additional instability expected from daytime heating, we are
still watching for the possibility of a severe storm in Eastern
Colorado. Given the current trend and that earlier showers,
most of the instability has been used and we are developing some
CIN. This will keep our chances on the very low side of
additional storms forming and them becoming severe. If one does
become severe, it may produce hail around an inch or wind gusts
around 60-70 mph.

This evening and tonight, winds may gust closer to 50 mph
initially as some of the low level jet mixes down. Winds should
then sustain around 10-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph as the
surface low nears the area from the west. Cloud cover is still
forecast to stream in from the southwest flow aloft and lead to
a mix of cloudy and clear skies. There could be a few showers,
that form from some pockets of low to mid-level moisture moving
through and the strong low level jet that is forecast to be in
place. They would favor counties along the Colorado border. Lows
are forecast to be in the 50`s and low 60s.

Thursday, the upper trough is forecast to broaden as the main
center shifts northeast into Wyoming. As it pushes on, the
surface low and a cold front are forecast to move into the area.
Starting around sunrise, the low and the front could severe as
a focus for storm development with the low level convergence,
high level diffluence from strong higher level winds, and moist
building up along the frontal boundary. Current forecast starts
it near the Colorado border, and then pushes east slowly through
NW Kansas and SW Nebraska. This means most of NW Kansas and SW
Nebraska could have cloud cover and storms through the day.
Early in the day, storms are forecast to be sub-severe (similar
to Wednesday) as instability and lapse rates are both forecast
to be low. As the day goes on, some sunshine and heating should
allow some modest instability around 1000 J/kg to develop along
with lapse rates closer to 8 C/km. While this alone generally
wouldn`t be enough, 0-6km shear is forecast to be around 40-60
kts and help storms maintain themselves. With the shear and
storm motions favoring the orientation of the frontal boundary,
storms may be able to maintain themselves and become stronger.
If a strong enough storm develops, hail to around an inch should
be possible. The main inhibitor would be that too many storms
may fire off, lowering instability quickly and competing with
other storms. A threat that may be present in either case is
wind gusts to 60-70 mph. Within the lowest few 100 mbs, winds
are forecast to be around 50 kts. While the inversion should
inhibit wind gusts from synoptically reaching 60 mph, storms may
be able to mix that down. Locales along the Nebraska border
where clouds and storms are favored most of the day are forecast
to have temperatures in the 60`s and low 70s, while the rest of
the area is in the mid to upper 70s.

Thursday night, the front is forecast to slowly shift out of
the area to the east as the upper trough continues pushing
northeast. This could allow storms to linger in NW Kansas and SW
Nebraska through the evening and early night hours, but
precipitation should end shortly after midnight. Once the front
clears, cloud cover should clear and winds calm well behind the
front. This will allow the Tri-State border area to cool into
the upper 30s while the rest of the area has lows in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 309 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Friday and Saturday are forecast to have the area remain under
troughing aloft while the main axis swings through the Plains,
clearing the area late Saturday. With the drier air mass in
place, precipitation chances are currently less than 10% both
days. Temperatures are forecast to be in the 60s and low 70s.

Sunday morning, after the trough axis swings through, a cold
and dry air mass is forecast to move over the area. With
dewpoints in the 20s, there is a chance that the area could have
its first freeze Sunday morning, favoring Eastern Colorado. The
cold air shot is forecast to be short lived as slight ridging
moves in on the back of the front and brings a slightly warmer
air mass. With that, highs should still warm into the 70s
underneath partly cloudy skies.

Going into next week, we are still looking at another trough
moving through around Mon. Ahead of the trough, it is forecast
to develop another system along the Front Range and increase
winds with gusts around 25-35 mph. With dry air still in place,
we may see critical fire weather conditions Monday ahead of the
system with RH around 15% and the stronger winds. Highs are
forecast to be in the 60s.

If the trough moves through on time, both Tue/Wed mornings
would have lows in the 30s again. With this, more freezing
temperatures may impact the area. That being said, the lower
temperatures will favor Eastern Colorado again, potentially
leaving NW Kansas and SW Nebraska above freezing. If the trough
delays more into Tuesday, then Wednesday morning would be the
only near freezing morning. The current forecast favors dry air
remaining in place with no air mass recovery from repeated upper
troughs, keeping precipitation chances below 10%.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Thunderstorms may affect either/both terminals during the early
to mid afternoon (~18-22Z). Additional showers/storms may
develop during the late afternoon and early evening (~22-03Z)..
potentially affecting either/both terminals. VFR conditions will
otherwise prevail. S winds at 20-30 knots will persist through
the majority of the TAF period. Winds will decrease to 10-15
knots around sunset (~00-01Z Fri) as a lee cyclone in CO
progresses eastward across western KS and southwest NE. Winds
are expected to shift to the NNW or N and increase to 15-25
knots near the end of the TAF period (03-06Z Fri).. on the
western periphery of the eastward advancing /departing lee
cyclone.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...Vincent