470
FXUS63 KGLD 240627
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1227 AM MDT Fri Apr 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning issued for eastern Colorado with humidity in
  the low teens and wind gusts around 30 mph forecast. Similar
  conditions may spread into the Highway 27 corridor during the
  late afternoon leading to an hour or two of critical fire
  conditions.

- Cold front mid to late evening with a 20% chance of a couple
  of wind gusts around 60 mph.

- Rainfall chances increase this weekend. There is a small
  chance of severe weather Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1220 AM MDT Fri Apr 24 2026

High pressure is pushing in from the west and is forecast to lead to
light winds across the area overnight. With dew points in place
would not be surprised if some freezing temperatures could
occur across eastern Colorado, especially across the highest
elevations. Friday, the surface high is forecast to move to the
east across the area. Across Colorado a surface low is forecast
to develop and turn winds to the southwest across the Yuma, Kit
Carson and Cheyenne (CO). This is where the most likely area to
see several hours of critical fire weather lies. With mixing
heights of 10,000-13,000 feet AGL there should be no issue in
winds mixing down and overlapping A Red Flag Warning has been
issued for those 3 counties as humidity is forecast to fall into
the low teens and wind gusts up to 30 mph are forecast to
occur. An hour or two of critical conditions is forecast to
occur from Dundy down through Wallace county as the low deepens
a tighter pressure gradient develops after 21Z. I opted to not
issue for these counties due to confidence being around 60% in 3
or more hours occurring. If the low can set up a little further
east and winds become more southwesterly sooner then a short
lead time warning may be needed as dry air would intrude
quicker. During the late afternoon some weak 500mb vorticity
maxima are forecast to move through the area associated with
weak shortwaves. Virga is possible but with a deep layer of dry
air no precipitation is forecast to make it to the surface. 00Z
forecast soundings indicate a few hundred joules and steep
lapse rates indicating that some dry lightning strikes can`t be
ruled out.

A cold front is forecast to move through during the mid to late
evening and shift winds to the north. Wind gusts of 40-55 mph
are most likely with mixing heights around 1000 feet AGL via
along with sustained winds of 25-35 mph but there is a 20%
chance of isolated wind gusts around 60 mph as well. If virga is
in place then the concern for 60+ mph wind gusts mixing down
with the front with increase as well. This would also raise the
concern for blowing dust and localized dust storms similar to
what occurred on Thursday; although the impacts would be lesser
due to the time of the day.

Into the day Saturday, behind the front strong signal for
stratus is seen for the morning hours and increasing low level
omega which may lead to some light rain showers across the area
during the morning and into the early afternoon hours. Currently
the favored area for light rain is across the north and eastern
portions of the area. A chillier day is forecast for Saturday
with highs in the upper 50s to the upper 60s across the south.
If cloud cover is thick enough then high temperatures may still
be 5-10 degrees to warm. Moisture return is then forecast to
occur Saturday evening and again increase rainfall chances as
winds turn more easterly due to the positioning of a surface
low. The better potential for rainfall looks to occur during the
evening and overnight hours. There is small and conditional
chance for a severe storm or two mainly along and east of a
Decatur to Gove county line as synoptic forcing increases ahead
of a larger scale trough. A lot of mesoscale factors such as dry
line location and if earlier day rainfall and stratus potential
can interfere with the environment. Should a storm develop
large hail and damaging winds would be the main concerns with
Mixed layer CAPE ranging from 900-1600 j/kg dependent on the
quality of moisture present, steep lapse rates and surface-6km
shear around 35- 45 knots which would be supportive for severe
weather. Straight line hodographs are also seen as well which
would support splitting of cells. Am noticing a CAP around 700mb
which would limit coverage and if storms even occur at all.
Confidence in storms forming is around 10% and severe weather
is less than 5% currently. ECMWf does indicate a weak shortwave
in the area which would serve as lift but is currently the
outlier at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 157 PM MDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Sunday, our region starts off under weak southwest upper-level
flow with a deepening low pressure system off the west coast.
High temperatures are forecast in the 60s to 70s and lows in the
30s to 40s. There are chances for precipitation throughout the
day as several embedded shortwaves pass through the region.
Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) increase through the day
with afternoon PoPs ranging from 75-97% increasing from south to
north. PoPs will start to decrease after sundown ranging from
30-60% overnight.

We could see thunderstorms as CAPE is forecast over the region,
but models are in disagreement on how much and where the CAPE
will be. ECMWF shows 400-1000 J/kg of CAPE across the entire CWA
Sunday, while the GFS has no CAPE over our CWA. Low confidence
on specifics due to model disagreement, but we could see small
hail if thunderstorms are able to form.

By Monday, a deepening low pressure system off the coast of
Baja California begins to move onshore. This places our region
in a more zonal upper-level pattern. As the low propagates east,
several shortwaves will pass through the region bringing
afternoon chances for precipitation. PoPs range from 25-50% for
the northwest CWA. Convective potential is low based weak
forcing and overall limited instability. Whether storms form or
not, winds will be a concern Monday as a jet streak sets up over
our CWA. Winds will be from the northwest with gusts of 25-40
mph possible. The northeast CWA is expected to receive the
higher end of wind gusts.

Tuesday`s forecast has changed a bit from yesterday. Winds have
backed down overall, with max wind gusts forecast around 25 mph
for the northwest CWA. Relative humidity (RH) values for the
northwest CWA are forecast in the mid 20s. Fire weather concerns
are decreasing based on this latest run of the NBM, but still
something to monitor.

The northwest CWA has a chance for showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon with PoPs around 30% due to shortwaves passing
through and weak upper-level support from a jet streak. Low
confidence on specific hazards at this time, but the ECMWF is
showing around 100 J/kg of CAPE in eastern Colorado, so we could
see some small hail if thunderstorms are able to form.

Wednesday on, we could see a more active pattern as the
aforementioned low around the west coast moves towards our area.
Ensembles are currently in disagreement on the track and
intensity of the low. Where this sets up will determine our
precipitation chances, but based on increasing available
moisture, we will likely see increasing coverage and intensity
of precipitation and potentially thunderstorms Wednesday through
the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1108 PM MDT Thu Apr 23 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for this period with mainly light
and variable winds through the remainder of the night as a high
pressure system moves across the area. Winds are then forecast
to turn more southerly at each terminal with perhaps a more
southwest component for GLD during Friday afternoon along with
wind gusts of 25-30 knots. A cold front is then forecast to move
through towards the latter part of the period with wind gusts of
30-40 knots possible.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this
     evening for COZ252>254.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Rhoades
AVIATION...Trigg