614
FXUS63 KGLD 090612
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1212 AM MDT Sat May 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few thunderstorms are expected during a cold frontal passage
  Saturday afternoon and evening. An isolated severe storm is
  possible, mainly in northwest KS between 3-9 PM MDT. Wind and
  hail are the main hazards. Potential impacts include, but are
  not limited to, hail damage to vehicles and wind damage to
  roofs, siding and trees.

- Warm temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s are forecast for
  most of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Sat May 9 2026

Shortwave trough currently topping the ridge axis in the
Northern Rockies will dive southeast today and arrive in the
Central Plains late this afternoon and tonight. Scattered
thunderstorms will develop in a highly sheared/weakly unstable
environment. Initial development will be along a cold front at
around 21-22z which will be just exiting the area, but may see a
brief window in Graham/Norton/Gove counties in northwest Kansas
where initiation may occur before quickly moving out to the
southeast. The other location where storms will develop will be
the Cheyenne Ridge in Colorado/Wyoming with the approaching
shortwave, and those storms will be moving southeast into the
area from late afternoon through the evening. The weak
instability is the main limiting factor in updraft organization
at 500-1000 j/kg at best, as well as the relatively weak
forcing, but with 0-6km shear values increasing to 30-50 kts by
00z and 50-60 kts by 03z, the environment will be supportive of
supercells. The CAMs are in general agreement that a supercell
or two will develop between 00-03z when shear is maximized,
although differ on the exact location. Large hail to golf ball
size and damaging wind gusts may accompany any supercell. A
brief tornado is also possible with an increase in 0-3km
helicity between 00-03z to 200-300 m2/s2 and LCLs dropping to
2-4 kft, both parameters slightly favoring western areas, though
instability will be rapidly diminishing during that time and
updrafts may be struggling to maintain themselves. Earlier runs
of the HRRR suggested an organized wind threat developing with
the cluster of storms in the evening, but latest runs are not as
aggressive. Nonetheless, would not rule out the possibility of
blowing dust or even a more organized dust storm developing with
rapidly falling mixing heights 23-01z, though recent rainfall
may have contributed enough to the soil moisture to limit
available particles, so confidence is low regarding blowing
dust. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
through the night as the upper wave makes its way through the
area, but with a diminishing severe risk after about 03z with
rapid loss of available SBCAPE.

Sunday and Monday, northwest flow continues but upper heights
are rising as the ridge builds in from the west. Absent any
embedded disturbances, both days are forecast to be dry at this
time.

Temperatures will start the period above normal today (70s and
80s), cooling to near normal on Sunday (60s to lower 70s), then
warming to much above normal on Monday (mid to upper 80s). Lows
will mostly be in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 134 PM MDT Fri May 8 2026

Tuesday, not much change is forecast to occur in the mid level
pattern but at the surface high pressure is forecast to nudge in
from the north during the afternoon and shift winds to the
north and weaken them as well. Winds however are forecast to
remain breezy ahead of this however. Due to the wind shift and
weakening of the winds for the afternoon brings some questions
as to if any prolonged duration of fire weather could be on the
table or not. With the positioning of the high pressure large
scale subsidence is forecast to be in place across the area
leading to dry conditions both Monday and Tuesday.

Wednesday, the high pressure shifts to the east which is
forecast to allow some moisture back into the area. A tight
surface pressure gradient also funnels and dams moisture up east
of the Rockies. The GFS suggests that a shortwave coming off of
the Rockies during the afternoon would ignite some showers and
presumably storms given the moisture in place as this setup is
somewhat reminiscent of a summertime monsoonal pattern. The
ECMWF is around 24 hours slower with these features and turns
Thursday as a potential day to keep an eye on. Into late week
and next weekend guidance suggests that the pattern may turn
more active but is way to soon to get into the details at this
time.

Temperatures mid to late week are forecast to continue to
remain at least in the low 80s to 90s. The exact evolution of
how features turn out regarding moisture moisture, etc... will
dictate if we are looking at highs in the low 80s or the low
90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1109 PM MDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KMCK and KGLD through the
overnight and into early Saturday afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorms will develop by mid afternoon and continue through
Saturday night, but with high uncertainty regarding coverage. If
a thunderstorm were to directly impact either terminal, gusty
winds would be the main concern, with perhaps some blowing dust
and reduced visibility as well.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...024