086
FXUS63 KGLD 111734
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1034 AM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A series of systems move through the region late this week
  and may bring precipitation. Moderate confidence on timing,
  but low confidence on accumulations at this time.

- Signal for strong winds and increasing fire weather potential
  Sunday through mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1230 AM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

Zonal flow continues over the central plains over the top of a
ridge centered over Mexico. Will begin to transition to a
southwest flow Thursday night ahead of an upper low moving into
Baja California. At the surface, high pressure will move east
today with an increasing pressure gradient and southerly winds
in the forecast area. May see those winds gusting up to 30 mph
at times this afternoon. High temperatures will be in the 50s
and low temperatures Wednesday night in the upper 20s to lower
30s. There will be a wind shift to the north Wednesday night
with a weak frontal passage. On Thursday, winds veer from north
to east through the day, but despite the frontal passage
temperatures will be slightly warmer, with highs in the lower
60s. Thursday night will see increasing clouds and perhaps a
stray shower or two by the overnight hours associated with any
weak wave embedded in the southwest flow aloft and some help at
jet level from a right entrance region. Confidence is low in
measurable precipitation and most locations likely to stay dry
through Thursday night. Low temperatures will be in the upper
20s to lower 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 123 AM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

The weekend remains forecast to have an upper trough from the west
push east into the Plains/South while also bringing a low pressure
systems south of the area. Guidance continues to suggest that the
system should go far enough south that the area see very little
precipitation. The average is for the area to see 0-0.20" of rain
with this system with the the higher amounts the further south you
area. There is the possibility that some snow may be able to mix in
with the surface low forecast to move near the area Friday night and
into Saturday morning. Compared to earlier forecasts the chances for
accumulating snow are now very low around 5%.

All of this being said, there is still about 30% chance that the
upper trough/low and the accompanying surface low pull north and
provide the area with greater precipitation accumulations. In this
case, accumulations could easily exceed half an inch for those south
of I-70.

As for temperatures, the upper trough/low is forecast to be cut-off
in most scenarios, which should prevent the area from seeing a surge
of colder air. With this, highs are forecast to remain in the 50s
and 60s with lows generally in the 20s and 30s. The warmer high
temperatures are more likely if the area sees little rain or cloud
cover. Winds are forecast to be fairly typical with the surface low
either too far south of too broad for a strong pressure gradient to
develop over the area. Speeds should generally be around 10-20 mph.

Going into the end of the weekend and start of next week, upper
level ridging is forecast to build in behind the trough. This is
forecast to allow Sunday and Monday to warm up and be dry with highs
in the 60s and 70s.

Late Monday and beyond gets a little trickier as another trough is
forecast to deepen in the Western United States and push east. The
issue is that there is plenty of variance in how broad it gets and
its timing. The thing that does look certain though is that if we
are near the center of the low, we can expect a windy day. The
current forecast already has gusts around 45-60 mph for parts of the
area Tuesday, which could be higher if the low is even closer than
currently forecast. Conversely, a broader or further north trough
path would make it more of a breezy day. Still, increased fire
danger to start the week is fairly likely given how dry and warm it
will be, regardless of how strong the winds actually are. There is
also the possibility of a one-two punch with another system mid-
week. Ensemble currently favor a broad and slow secondary trough
over the west which may give us a temporary reprieve. Otherwise,
another low pressure system would move over and give us another
windy day with increased fire danger.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1001 AM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours as southerly
winds of 10 to 20kts will prevail through the day, before
gradually shifting to the north tomorrow. Cloud cover should all
be above 10000 feet with no significant threat of flight
category reductions.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...JRM