607
FXUS63 KGLD 061853
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1253 PM MDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs largely in the 90s are expected for the rest of the
  week.

- Storm and shower chances return on Tuesday through Thursday.

- Increasing signal for a prolonged period of hot and dry
  conditions starting next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1221 PM MDT Mon Jul 6 2026

We still have a 500 mb high set up over the Four Corners region
extending a ridge to the east-northeast over the Central Plains. At
the same time, a low is sitting over the eastern CONUS and eastern
Pacific giving us our first Omega blocking pattern of July! This
pattern generally leads to warm and generally dry conditions,
however isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms may
occur. These storms would generally be sub-severe, but can lead to
strong, gusty winds and dry lightning, making them an issue for fire
weather. This pattern looks to persist through midday Tuesday, a
short-lived Omega block, when a low over the northwestern CONUS
flattens us back into a more zonal flow, at the 500 mb level.

Temperatures today through Wednesday look to warm into the 90s
across the area with maximum apparent temperatures staying within a
few degrees of the air temperature. Lows look to range from the
upper 50s in eastern Colorado to low 70s in the eastern CWA. A 850
mb ridge will sit over the Mid and Southern Mississippi River Valley
while the Omega pattern exists. This will lead to generally
southeasterly low level and surface flow through the period,
providing a slow, but steady, increase of moisture to at least the
eastern 2/3 of the CWA. Additionally, this should prevent winds from
being southwesterly across the CWA, which would increase
temperatures an additional 5-10 degrees from down-sloping.

As far as fire weather concerns, RH values are forecast to remain
above critical levels, dropping into the upper teens briefly in
eastern Colorado each day. However, we are expecting gusty winds
each day, likely seeing gusts up around 30 kts Tuesday afternoon.
Once again, winds will largely be from the south-southeast and dry
lightning will be a concern.

Regarding convection, this afternoon a weak 700 mb convergence zone
near the Palmer Divide. This may allow some isolated storms to fire,
move east, and decay as they near the CWA border. PoPs for this
afternoon and evening are less than 10.

Tuesday late afternoon into the evening, as the ridge weakens over
the CWA, and an 850 mb low coming out of the Northern Rockies is
expected to sweep a weak cold front over the CWA. This will lead to
our next decent chance at storms. These would be moving in from the
northwest, decaying as they reach the northwestern CWA around 0Z.
Precipitation looks to fully end by 6-9Z. Most likely hazards with
these storms will be winds in the 40-60 kts range, and hail up
around 0.5-1.5 inches. The wind may lead to blowing dust, creating
reduced visibility. We will keep a close eye on these hazards going
forward.

Wednesday is a stronger copy of Tuesday. Timing could start a couple
of hours earlier and threats are mainly 0.75-1.75 inch hail and 45-
65 kts winds. We cannot rule out a brief tornado either, and there
will still be a dust threat depending on Tuesday`s rainfall amounts,
which don`t look to be high.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1252 PM MDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Starting the extended period Thursday, the main focus is for another
threat for showers and storms as well driven by a sagging weak cold
front through the afternoon hours. Guidance also suggests that a
500mb shortwave will accompany the front and there is also further
upper level support as a weak 250mb jet moves across the Rockies.
The 250mb jet has strengthened a bit from what was seen
yesterday. QPF signals indicate storm development off of the
Front Range and progressing onto the Plains with it entering NW
Kansas around 00Z based on current timing. Initial storms would
favor large hail but GFS, NAM and ECMWF all support straight
line hodographs so with the forcing and wind shear around 30-35
knots, think with eventual mergers storms will cluster into a
eastward moving severe MCS with time. Cold pool propagation
parameters are being met as well with ample MUCAPE, weak and
weak low level winds. NAM and ECMWF also both show some subtle
500 and 700mb diffluence out ahead of the potential MCS which
suggests that some leading edge convection may be on the table
as well. The big question will be how far east will this survive
and be potentially severe as the ECMWF doesn`t show a 700mb jet
during the evening but the GFS does. If the GFS does verify
then some backbuilding potential for eastern portions of the
area could lead to some flooding threat but Corfidi vectors
increase during this time which would limit that threat.

Friday, Some guidance does indicate another weak shortwave off of
the Front Range with some qpf signal being seen for areas south of
I70. There could be some severe threat with this but currently looks
very low with marginal CAPE values and very weak shear in place. Did
notice that corfidi vectors are very slow with this potential
cluster. ECMWF continues to keep the qpf signal south of the CWA
however.

Through the weekend and into next week there is very good
agreement for a large high pressure system to begin to develop
across the western CONUS and spread over the Plains. If this were to
occur then hot temperatures are forecast to be in place especially
if a near 595 dam sets up over the region. This would support the
potential for 100+ degree temperatures. Guidance today is a bit less
aggressive on the intensity of the high and has it more broad
which would help keep temperatures a little lower than what was
being seen yesterday. Will be interesting to see if this trend
continues. Thankfully current dew points are forecast to be in
the 40s to low 60s across the area which would help keep the
heat indices close to or below the air temperature. However
there is the potential for a prolonged period of hot to very hot
temperatures for the area. Precipitation chances would also
dwindle as well due to the subsidence of the high pressure if it
is indeed centered on top of the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1105 AM MDT Mon Jul 6 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period for KGLD and
KMCK. Winds will favor a south-southeasterly flow through the
period, too. This afternoon, KGLD will see gusts in the 20-30
kts range, and KMCK may see some gusts around 20 kts, but look
to be too occasional to include in the TAFs. Winds will weaken
overnight and return tomorrow morning.

**KGLD VISIBILITY: Parts are on order, there is no estimated
 return to service at this time. Until then, amendments for
 visibility should not be expected for KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...CA