309
FXUS63 KGLD 250906
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
306 AM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms this afternoon and evening. A few
  of the stronger storms could produce some small hail and gusty
  winds.

- Warmer and dry over the weekend.

- Wet conditions return the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 304 AM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Showers and storms dissipated overnight as yesterday`s shortwave
trough lifted north out of the area. Low stratus settled in across
northeast Colorado and northwest Kansas overnight with areas of fog
developing by early this morning. Isolated pockets of more dense fog
with visibilities under a mile are embedded within the wider area of
fog. Light winds will shift around to more southerly later this
morning helping to scour out the fog. Low stratus will take a bit
more time to improve, but should see ceiling lifting by mid to late
morning. Despite ceilings lifting, skies will remain mostly cloudy
today as moisture continues to advect northward into the western
Plains.

Looking towards this afternoon... High pressure amplifies over the
Central Plains and upper Midwest today as another shortwave trough
organizes over the Desert Southwest and begins to lift over the
Central Rockies later today. Low-level Gulf moisture will continue
to advect into the Southern Plains as mid-levels continue to pull
sub-tropical moisture from the western Pacific and Gulf of
California. Stratus will help to limit instability today, but will
still see scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms work into
southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas by late morning to early
afternoon. CAM models keep much of the forecast area capped and the
probability of severe weather during this time remains low.
Additional storms look to form later this evening, generally east of
Highway 25, as the surface low lifts through Kansas. Right now these
look to be elevated in nature, but some isolated small hail and gusty
winds will be possible with the strong storms.

This trough will move up along the western periphery of the ridge
and will help to flatten the ridge as it phases with another trough
moving across the Pacific Northwest. The ridge will begin to rebuild
back over the region this weekend resulting in dry conditions,
warmer temperatures, and generally sunny skies. Saturday afternoon
could see relative humidity drop down into the teens over northeast
Colorado but winds will stay light enough to keep conditions below
critical fire weather thresholds. Moisture begins to work back into
the region Sunday and Sunday night with the next system digging
across the West Coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 246 PM MDT Thu Sep 24 2026

A bit of uncertainty exists regarding the long term forecast.
Ensemble guidance is consistent on southwesterly flow overhead at
500-mb Monday morning, with a deep upper trough across the Western
United States. The trough is expected to move eastward across the
Central and Southern United States through the duration of the long
term period. However, the eastward speed of the trough is highly in
question. In general, warm conditions are forecast ahead of the
trough, with cooler and wetter conditions along a cold front as the
trough moves overhead. Once the trough fully moves through the area,
warmer and drier conditions may be allowed to return to the area.

Ensembles show the trough beginning to move overhead sometime
between Monday evening and Tuesday morning. However, they also show
large amounts of uncertainty centered around the trailing edge of
the trough. This would indicate a slower progression of this trough
eastward. Around 1 in 3 LREF members show the trough still lingering
in Southern California by midnight Tuesday, whereas the other
members show the trough moving out or already moved out of that
area. If the slower scenario occurs, warmer temperatures may hang
around into Tuesday. However, highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s
are forecast only on Monday.

As the trough moves over the area, a cold front is expected to
traverse the area, bringing cooler temperatures and precipitation to
the area. As this process is favored to occur sometime before
Tuesday afternoon, highs are forecast in the upper 60s to mid 70s
across the forecast area Tuesday. Additionally, NBM guidance
suggests a 50-70% chance for greater than 0.1 inches of rain across
the entire forecast area as the front comes through the area.
Currently, thunderstorms are not favored along this frontal
boundary, as LREF guidance suggests less than a 10% chance that
surface CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability) exceeds 1000
J/kg. The exception is Monday evening, where areas along and east of
U.S. Highway 83 show as high as a 1 in 3 chance that CAPE exceeds
1000 J/kg. However, the front would need to come through Monday
evening in order to take advantage of this atmospheric instability
and produce thunderstorms. Otherwise, widespread rain seems more
likely as the front comes through.

Conditions are expected to remain cool and wet as the trough remains
in the area. Most LREF members begin showing the trough moving out
of the area around midday Wednesday, but may not occur until as late
as Thursday. Once the trough fully moves through the area,
conditions are expected to become warmer and drier. NBM
probabilities for 24 hr precipitation greater than 0.1 inches begin
to decrease Thursday (down to about 1 in 4 chance), as upper
percentile highs (90th and above) show 80s reaching back into some
areas of the forecast region.

It should be noted that the slowest progressions of the trough could
create a potential for flash flooding with rainfall. Most recent EC
deterministics even show the trough stalling out in the 4-Corners
Region Wednesday evening, and remaining in place into Friday. NBM 48
hr precipitation guidance shows most of the region at a 30-40%
chance for more than an inch of rain across Tuesday and Wednesday,
with high end scenarios (90th and above) for 24 hr precipitation
showing totals between 1 and 2.5 inches Tuesday through Thursday.
This is a low confidence scenario (about 5%), but could potentially
have notable flash flooding impacts if it occurs.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1133 PM MDT Thu Sep 24 2026

The potential for low stratus and fog remain the primary
aviation concerns for both KGLD and KMCK through 18Z. Ceilings
below 500 ft will be common with visibility expected to drop to
2SM or less by 10Z. KGLD looks to be the better candidate for
visibility dropping to 1/2SM or less. Light northeasterly winds
will shift to northwesterly briefly then back to southerly by
mid-morning, but remaining light. This will help to scour out
fog and allow ceilings to gradually begin lifting.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pietrycha
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...Pietrycha