976
FXUS63 KGLD 240854
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
154 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for Eastern Colorado and
  Northwest Kansas through the morning hours.

- Breezy to strong NNW winds may develop in the wake of a cold
  frontal passage Tuesday morning. Sustained winds around 20-35
  mph and gusts of 30-50 mph are forecast. There is the
  possibility that gusts could reach 60-65 mph.

- Near normal temperatures expected around Thanksgiving.

- An Arctic cold front will bring colder temperatures and the
  potential for snow to the region this weekend and early next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 153 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

Current observations show a broad surface low extending from near
the Tri-State border, all the way down to the Panhandles region.
Because of this, precipitation has spent most of the early night
hours wrapping around the outside of the area. However, some
convergence zones are developing along the Colorado border,
developing some showers. A few storms are also trying to form closer
to Central Kansas where some MUCAPE and mid-level lapse rates around
7.5 are on the leading edge of the low. The overall chances of
seeing a lightning strike are very low, but not zero. Meanwhile, fog
is developing where low-level moisture is converging and being
forced slightly upslope, namely along I-70 during the early morning
hours. This is extending into more of the area as more moisture is
pushed, so a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for Eastern Colorado
and Northwest Kansas. An extension may be needed into Southwest
Nebraska as the low begins to shift east and move the area of
moisture convergence.

For most of the morning hours, drizzly and foggy skies are forecast
to persist. A few showers should move through the area on western
side of the surface low as it pushes east. By noon, most of the
precipitation should be over as the mid-level moisture pushes out.
However, the fog and drizzle could continue until the early evening
hours as the high concentration of low level moisture is forecast to
take awhile to clear out. With this, temperatures should remain
fairly steady in the 40s and low 50s. Counties along the Colorado
border may warm more into the mid 50s as the cloud cover and fog may
clear by the early afternoon for these areas.

Tonight, the moisture should clear the area and allow for clearer
skies. Meanwhile, an upper level trough is forecast to move through
the Plains and bring a cold front through the area later in the
night. So for the start of the evening and night, temperatures
should lower into the 30s with clear skies and relatively calm
winds. After the front passes, temperatures will likely warm up a
few degrees due to the mixing and winds should increase to around 10-
20 mph.

With the frontal passage, Tuesday is forecast to be colder and
windier. Temperatures are forecast to cap out in the low to mid 40s
as cold air moves in behind the front. Winds are forecast to
increase early in the morning to around 20-35 mph. Wind gusts are
forecast to mainly be in 30-50 mph range. That being said, some
gusts to 60 and maybe even 65 mph are possible as guidance is
suggesting winds in the 850mb-700mb layer could reach 45-55 kts.
This seems reasonable as ensembles have been hinting at a
deeper/stronger trough that pushes a little more east and puts us in
the stronger height gradient. The main issue is how much will we
actually tap into the stronger flow with the early front passage.

Tuesday night, winds should lower fairly quickly as the front pushes
farther away and the inversion sets up. Temperatures are forecast to
dip into the teens with the cold air mass squarely over the area and
with the lighter winds. Temperatures may be able to stay in the
twenties if some higher level cloud cover can move in ahead of a
smaller shortwave before we get too late into the night and cool
off.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 141 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

Wednesday we will be under northwesterly flow as the early week low
moves towards the Great Lakes as a ridge pushes in from the west.
This should keep Wednesday through Friday pretty mild. Temperatures
will warm into the 40s Wednesday and 40s to mid 50s Thursday. For
Thanksgiving, the southwestern CWA will be the warmest. Overnight,
temperatures will cool into the low to mid 20s.

Friday night, the CMC-NH and ECMWF are showing a shortwave trough
moving across the Great Plains. This will have a 20-25% chance of
producing some precipitation, likely snow, and could lower
temperatures.

Sometime between Saturday night and Wednesday, our next strong low
will impact the region. With it being 7 days out and multiple
systems occurring ahead of it, there is a lot of uncertainty.
However, we are expecting northwesterly winds, colder temperatures,
and precipitation, very likely snow. There is an outside (<5%)
chance this system could produce blowing snow, heavily impacting
visibility and travel. There is also a 15-30% chance temperatures
will drop below 10 degrees during this system, with the coolest
temperatures being in the northwestern CWA.

Since there is such uncertainty in the timing of the second system,
and uncertainty if the Friday night shortwave will even occur, NBM
PoPs give a chance of rain starting Friday night through next
Monday. The more impactful system/precipitation is expected to occur
sometime between Sunday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1004 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

For KGLD... Ceilings around 200-400ft and visibility between 1/4
and 2SM are forecast through 15Z as low level moisture has
moved in over the terminal. There is a chance that conditions
may briefly improve as some rain showers are trying to form
southwest of the terminal in the wrap around portion of the low.
If the showers move over, they could improve visibility to
around 4-7SM and lift ceilings to around 500-1000ft. Otherwise,
conditions are not forecast to improve until around 15Z as very
slow daytime heating begins to dissipate the fog, and then lift
and break apart the cloud cover. Conditions are forecast to be
VFR around 21-00Z as the low shifts east. From then, the next
concern will be increasing winds with a front that could provide
low level wind shear. However, this is currently forecast to
occur after 06Z Tuesday.

For KMCK... Ceilings are forecast to lower slowly through the
first few hours of the period as more low level moisture pulls
in from the south and with the showers clear of the terminal.
They are forecast to bottom out around 200-400ft by 09Z. As the
low ceilings set up, fog is also forecast to form with
visibility initially around 3-5SM, but potentially lowering to
around 1/2SM closer top 12-15Z. As temperatures slowly warm
through the day, the fog should burn off during the morning, and
then ceilings lift through the afternoon. Around 00Z, ceilings
should lift above 3000ft and allow for VFR conditions. This
evening, a front is forecast to move through and increase winds
from the northwest. There is a chance that low level wind shear
could develop around 200-500ft with speeds around 40-50 kts
between 03-06Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ this morning
     for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MST this morning for COZ090>092.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KAK