788
FXUS63 KGLD 101714
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1014 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued dry forecast through the week until next weekend.

- Gradual warming temperature trend through the work week.

- Low relative humidity Tuesday and Friday with breezy winds
  leading to some fire weather concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1236 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

A surface high is located across eastern portions of the
forecast area where single digit dew points have filtered in. A
combination of the surface high and low dew points have lead
temperatures fall into the low to mid teens currently with the
potential to fall into the single digits by Monday morning.
Further to the west some subtle troughing is nosing in allowing
winds to become more south- southwesterly which is forecast to
keep temperatures from falling below the upper teens.

Throughout the remainder of the day the trough is forecast to
continue moving through the area leading to breezy sustained
winds around 15 mph. Winds are forecast to remain from the
southwest leading to some downsloping allowing temperatures to
warm up, especially across the west where low to mid 60s are
forecast. The high pressure across the east will be slow to move
out as temperatures may struggle to get out of the 40s.

Monday night and into Tuesday morning, a shortwave is forecast
to move across the area from the Cheyenne ridge. As the
shortwave moves across the area winds are forecast to become
breezy from the west- northwest due to an increasing 850mb jet
as a result this is anticipated to help keep temperatures at or
above freezing for the majority of the forecast area as the
lower levels of the atmosphere remain mixed.

Tuesday, breezy to even gusty conditions will be ongoing as the
nocturnal inversion breaks with sustained winds of 15-25 mph
gusting to 35 mph with the strongest across eastern Colorado.
Some lower dew points in the mid teens to low 20s will remain
across eastern Colorado as well as temperatures rise allowing
humidity values to fall into the mid teens to low 20s resulting
in some elevated to even critical fire weather conditions across
Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties but may even spread into
Wallace and Greeley counties as well. Winds are actually
forecast to decrease starting around 19Z or so as the shortwave
moves out of the area allowing the 850mb jet to weaken. Higher
dew points are also forecast to move in from the north which
this along with the declining wind brings some questions on how
many hours of critical conditions can occur leading to a
confidence of 20-25% for 3 or more hours of critical conditions
(highest for Cheyenne county Colorado) which is to low to
validate a need for a Fire Weather Watch at this time.
Confidence though in 1-2 hours of critical conditions is around
30-40% especially the further west across Cheyenne county
Colorado you go.

Wednesday is forecast to be another warm day as ridging across
the western CONUS returns leading to above normal temperatures
in the 70s for most of the area as breezy southwest winds
continue. Dew points are forecast to be higher in wake of the
weak moisture advection from Tuesday afternoon helping to
mitigate fire weather concerns. The southwest winds are forecast
to continue through the night as larger scale troughing across
the Pacific ocean begins to take shape helping temperatures
remain above freezing again.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

Thursday-Friday: An amplifying upper level trough in the
Pacific will move ashore the Pacific Coast (Thu) and progress
east across the Intermountain West (Fri). Meanwhile, in advance
of the aforementioned trough, an upper level ridge will prevail
over the Central Plains. Ridging aloft and modest southerly low-
level flow on the eastern periphery of a persistent surface
trough in the lee of the Rockies will foster dry conditions and
well-above average highs in the lower-mid 70`s. Strengthening
S-SW low-level flow on the eastern periphery of a developing
(albeit broad) surface to 850 mb trough in the lee of the
central Rockies may foster breezy S to SW winds (and adverse
fire weather conditions) across portions of the area on Friday,
depending on whether or not (and if so, to what extent)
increasing upper level cloud cover -- orographically enhanced
cirrus, in particular -- impacts diurnal heating and vertical
mixing.

Saturday-Sunday: Below average forecast confidence*. 00 UTC
11/10 operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF are in better
agreement (compared to 24-hr ago) with regard to the evolution
of a complex longwave trough over the western and central CONUS
this weekend. Both suggest that the longwave trough will
fracture over the Intermountain West (Fri-Fri night).. the
southern portion of which will evolve into a closed low that
progresses ESE from the Desert Southwest (Sat) to central Texas
(Sat night) then E to the Lower Mississippi River Valley (Sun)
and.. the northern portion of which will manifest as a less
amplified/deep, progressive trough over the northern CONUS. A
perfect prog of either (GFS or ECMWF) solution would suggest dry
conditions and near-average (Sat) to slightly below-average
(Sun) temperatures in the NWS Goodland county warning area,
however.. given the complex nature of the synoptic pattern and
distant forecast range (132-168 hours out), it would be unwise
to take any model solution at face value. Broadly speaking, an
approaching longwave trough in an amplified synoptic pattern
suggests an above-average potential for active weather (in some
form or another).

*Forecast confidence typically decreases with range. `Below
average`, in this context, is intended to communicate a further
reduction in confidence associated with /inherent to/ increased
pattern complexity.. e.g. patterns characterized by cut-off
waves, multibranched jet/wave interactions and potentially
significant forms of constructive/destructive interference,
among others.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1012 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. Southerly surface winds will gust up to 20 kts at times
through this afternoon, diminish tonight, then increase again
from the northwest mid to late Tuesday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1236 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

A period of elevated to critical fire weather remains forecast
from late morning Tuesday through the early afternoon across Kit
Carson county, Cheyenne county Colorado along with western
Wallace and Greeley counties in Kansas. An interesting fire
weather conditions setup is forecast to take shape as a
shortwave moves across the area during the morning hours leading
to the breeziest winds occurring from between 8am-11am MT with
sustained winds of 20-30 mph and gusts up to 35 mph forecast. A
corridor of lower dew points is also forecast to move through as
well dropping humidity values into the mid teens to low 20s as
early as 10am MT as temperatures rise into mid 60s to low 70s.
The tricky part of the forecast is that the winds will actually
decline as the afternoon goes on and humidity increases leading
to a brief window from the late morning into the early afternoon
where critical fire weather conditions may exist. Peak mixing
heights during the afternoon are forecast to be around 5000 feet
which is forecast to be nearing a wind field of 20-25 knot
winds which leads me to believe that any wind gusts of 25 mph or
higher will be spotty and sporadic. Confidence in achieving an
hour or two of critical conditions is around 30-40% mainly in
western Cheyenne county Colorado and 20-25% of 3 or more hours.
In the other counties mentioned 1-2 hours of critical conditions
is around 20-25% and 3+ hours is 10-15%. Am opting to hold off
on any fire weather products at this time due to the lack of
confidence in achieving 3 or more hours of critical conditions
and due to the overall limited spatial nature of where the
critical conditions are forecast. Nevertheless be extra cautious
with any activity that involves sparks Tuesday morning as GFDI
(Grassland Fire Danger Index) values are forecast to be very
high from 45-55 along with drying 10 hour fuels approaching 10%
according to the Kansas Mesonet across most of northwest Kansas.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...024
FIRE WEATHER...Trigg