575
FXUS63 KGLD 240701
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
101 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog is possible this morning and Friday morning. Be alert for
  patches of dense fog.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for most of Northwest Kansas and
  Southwest Nebraska Saturday through Monday. High temperatures
  are forecast to be in the 100s with heat index values in the
  mid 100s. Limit time outdoors and stay hydrated.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 101 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Current observations show the surface low that sparked the earlier
storms becoming less defined and shifting south into the Panhandles
region. With this, the storms chances have ended for the night.
There is still plenty of cloud cover in the area, with increasing low
level cloud cover from the northeast. This suggests an increase in
moisture that should keep temperatures steady where they are in the
60s and low 70s. Fog is also beginning to develop and spread from
east to west. This may continue through the night, with the current
forecast having the low cloud cover and fog across most of Northwest
Kansas and Southwest Nebraska. Dense fog is possible, but looks to
either be spotty or confined to Norton/Graham counties as
temperatures and dewpoints steady. The eastern areas have the higher
chance with the weak moisture advection.

To start Friday morning, most of the area should see fog or cloud
cover. This should hinder temperatures from warming to much, likely
keeping most of the area in the 60s and 70s through the morning. By
about noon, most of the cloud cover and fog should have burned off
with slightly drier air advecting in from the north and west. This
should allow most of the area to warm into the upper 80s and 90s
with sunny skies. With the upper ridge axis moving closer to the
area and the surface pressure gradient weakening as the low pressure
spreads across the Plains, winds should remain somewhat light around
5 to 15 mph. There is a 5-10% chance for a storm to form around
Greeley/Wichita county during the late afternoon hours as there may
be a weak low pressure center developing in Southeast Colorado. If
so, it may be able to form a weak boundary that could spark a quick
pulse storm. With 0-6km shear around 15 kts and overall weak flow,
any storm that does manage to form is unlikely to be severe.

Friday night, skies are forecast to be mostly clear and winds remain
light. With this, temperatures should cool close to dewpoints again
in the 60s. While the winds are forecast to be light, those east of
Highway 83 may have a slight easterly component to the winds, which
may allow some fog to form with upslope flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 223 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

An upper level ridge of high pressure will remain anchored over
the Central and Southern Plains this weekend, which will keep
hot, mid summer conditions in place across the Tri-State Area.
As we move into next workweek, weather models show the ridge of
high pressure gradually flattening and shifting westward toward
the Four Corners Region. This retrogression will shift our local
upper level wind pattern to the west/northwest, allowing for
periodic disturbances to slide along the edge of the ridge and
across the High Plains.

Several hot days are in store for the region starting Saturday.
Forecast confidence is very high with 25th to 75th percentile
max temperatures with only a 3-4 degree spread, with Saturday
high temperatures ranging from the upper 90s to low 100s, and
Sunday-Monday ranging from the low to mid 100s for the entire
area. Areas along and east of US Highway 83 could approach Heat
Advisory thresholds, with heat index values topping out around
Sunday and Monday. As the ridge retreats westward Tuesday and
Wednesday, temperatures will gradually ease with model variance
becoming wider (highs ranging from the low to mid 90s).

A steady tap of moisture wrapping around the upper level high
pressure system will keep atmospheric moisture levels unusually
high across the region between the 75th and 99th percentile
(well above normal) for late July. Saturday into Sunday will be
mainly diurnally driven with storms initiating off the higher
terrain of the Front Range/Palmer Divide during the afternoon,
then drive eastward. Confidence is low that storms will actually
make it over to extreme eastern CO counties. Chances for
precipitation increase and spread further east as northwest flow
aloft sharpens and some instability in the upper flow occurs
(shortwave troughs moving through). With high atmospheric
moisture, and a lack of mid level wind support leading to likely
slow storm movement, heavy rain and perhaps some local minor
flooding could occur under persistent / repeating storm cores.
Otherwise, severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1103 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

For KGLD... VFR conditions are forecast through the period with
winds generally below 8 kts. The main concern is the possibility
for ceilings to lower to a few hundred feet before 14Z. For now,
the time period of highest concern is between 09-13Z. There is a
35% chance that the low ceilings stay just east of the terminal,
keeping conditions at VFR levels.

For KMCK... MVFR/IFR conditions are forecast through about
14-15Z with ceilings already around 1000ft as of 05Z. Ceilings
will likely lower at times through the night to around
200-500ft. Fog is also possible, with visibility around 1-3SM.
Once the fog and cloud cover clears, VFR conditions with winds
under 8kts are forecast to prevail.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 10 PM CDT Monday for
     KSZ001>004-014>016-028-029.
CO...None.
NE...Heat Advisory from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ Saturday to 9 PM MDT
     /10 PM CDT/ Monday for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Kochasic
AVIATION...KAK