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FXUS63 KGLD 071715
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1115 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Triple digit heat returns today, but there`s a gradual cool-
  down through Wednesday.

- Afternoon and evening thunderstorms return over the next
  couple days. There may be a few wind gusts around 60 mph, but
  the severe weather chance is fairly low around 5%. If these
  wind gusts do occur, there may be some blowing dust.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1031 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Current observations have a an upper high amplitude ridge over the
Plains with a trough upstream over the Northwestern CONUS. Near the
surface, a low pressure system was located just northwest of the
area with an associated weak cold front. The upper trough is
forecast to slowly push east, and help move the surface low/front
into the area as the day progresses. With the slow motion, the
low/front should only move to roughly near the Tri-State border
area. This will keep much of the area in the strong southerly flow
through the remainder of the day, with winds already around 15-25
mph and gusts up to 40 mph. Temperatures should still warm to near
100 for most of the area as well, with maybe some low 90s near the
Tri-State border area. Some hazy skies from blowing dust remains
possible as the day progresses, but winds will likely be too weak
and mixing heights too high to support decreased surface visibility
except right near prime dust source regions.

Storms remain forecast for the area this afternoon and evening with
the low/front in the area. With storms already trying to form in the
Nebraska Panhandle this morning, odds are that we will have a few
storms develop by 1-3pm MT. This would likely be along and west of a
line from Burlington, CO to McCook, NE. With the environment
forecast to have MUCAPE around 1500 J/KG and 0-6km shear around 20-
30 kts to start, severe weather is forecast to be marginal and
spotty. Hail around an inch and wind gusts around 60 mph would be
the possible threats. Do keep an eye out for blowing dust should a
strong outflow occur, especially if it is with a storm behind the
front where mixing heights may be a bit lower. A landspout or two
may also be possible if the shear is more on the lower side of the
forecast. Storm coverage behind the front could be fairly widespread
with the low level system, a potential upper shortwave pushing in,
and mid-level lapse rates around 8-9 C/km. The main hindrance to
the storm coverage is if the upper ridge`s influence remains over
the area and provides upper level subsidence. All in all, the
northwestern half of the area has a decent chance to see storms this
afternoon and evening with maybe an instance or two of severe
weather. The storm activity could continue through the night with
the aforementioned forcing in the area, but the severe threat would
likely drop off by 9-10pm MT.

Tomorrow, the upper trough is forecast to split into two waves and
push east across the Northern Plains. While unlikely to supplant the
ridge over much of the Central and Southern Plains, it is forecast
to deamplify it. This should also push the surface low/front to the
southeastern portion of the area. For those roughly along and west
of a line from Sharon Springs, KS to McCook, NE, temperatures will
likely be cooler with highs closer to the low 90s and maybe even
some 80s. The rest of the area unfortunately will likely near 100
again. Winds should be lighter across the area compared to today
with speeds around 10-15 mph. Those underneath the system may even
go calm for most of the day.

Showers and storms are possible again tomorrow afternoon and
evening. The afternoon storms are forecast to form along the frontal
boundary around 2-4pm MT. There is some uncertainty on how far south
the boundary would push, but the best chance for this round are
forecast to be along and south of a line from Tribune, KS to Norton,
KS. These storms would generally be sub-severe with MUCAPE close to
or less than 1000 J/kg and 0-6km shear around 20 kts. Maybe a wind
gust around 50-60 mph could occur. The secondary chance for storms
would come from the higher terrain to the west as the secondary
trough pushes into the Plains. Assuming the environment isn`t too
capped, this round would likely turn into a cluster than then pushes
east through the area. The severe weather threat would remain on the
low side with low lapse rates and the aforementioned inhibition.
However, if the cluster can produce an organized storm, there is the
possibility for hail around an inch and/or wind gusts around 60 mph.
The other potential hazard would be flooding. Not only would the
western cluster likely be an efficient rain producer, but smaller
cells could form ahead and allow for training. The overall chance
remains around 5%, but keep an eye out for sneaky hazards late into
the evening. Storms may again persist into the night, especially if
both rounds of storms form and produce outflow boundaries.

Wednesday, the main waves of the upper trough should be pushing east
into the Great Lakes region. This should help finish pushing the
surface front/low well south of the area. With the slightly cooler
air mass in place, highs are forecast to be in the 80s across the
area. There may be a few 90s south of Highway 40 if the upper ridge
keeps its influence a bit further north. Winds are forecast to start
around 10-20 mph from the north, but very slowly lower through the
daytime hours.

The afternoon and evening hours will bring another chance for
showers and storms, albeit a bit lower of a chance with the lower
forcing likely gone from the area. Still, an upper wave on the
backside of the larger trough up north should help a few storms
develop over the higher terrain to the west and push east. The main
issue is that there may not be enough instability for storms to
sustain and make it into the area. This would also likely keep
storms on the sub-severe side. For now, those along and south of I-
70 are favored.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 233 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Thursday morning, a ridge looks to be overhead at 500-mb, with a
surface high to the east. At the same time, ensemble guidance is
consistent with a surface low across South-Central Canada and
portions of the Northern United States. This would favor southerly
surface flow across the forecast region. Forecast temperatures are
currently in the mid to upper 80s across the forecast region. NBM
guidance does suggest a 20% chance or greater across a large portion
of the forecast area that high temperatures will reach back into the
90s, with a near 50% chance across localized portions of the Tri-
State Area. However, in order for this to occur, winds and solar
heating would need to increase. LREF guidance suggests that there is
around a 50-60% chance that cloud cover will remain below 20%
coverage, with the NBM suggesting an 80-90% chance for the same. In
addition, the surface high to the east and surface low to the north
both look to be in favorable positions relative to the upper level
flow for intensification, which could enhance the southerly flow
across the forecast area. If these conditions can be met, hot
conditions may redevelop across the area Thursday.

By Friday, upper level troughing looks to be pushing into the United
States from the northwest. Winds are forecast to be out of the north
to northwest as the leading edge of a high protrudes into the
Central High Plains during the afternoon. Forecast highs are in the
low to mid 90s despite the favored northerly component to the
surface flow, as NBM guidance shows a 50% chance or higher that
winds will remain below 10 mph, particularly across Northwest
Kansas. Guidance is also in favor of low cloud cover, which would
allow solar heating to override the effects of the northerly surface
flow. The biggest point to note is that relative humidities are
forecast to drop into the lower 20s and possibly high teens across
portions of Eastern Colorado. This could indicate the possibility
for localized fire weather conditions, especially across Yuma County
in Colorado where NBM guidance suggests up to a 2 in 3 chance that
winds will reach or exceed 25 mph (one of the thresholds for fire
weather). This will be a trend to keep an eye on as we approach the
upcoming weekend.

Troughing is forecast to continue approaching the forecast area
going into Saturday. Highs are forecast in the upper 80s and lower
90s on Saturday ahead of the trough. Lee cyclogenesis is possible at
the leading edge of the trough as it crosses the Colorado Rockies,
which could aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms
Saturday evening and overnight. Severe thunderstorms seem unlikely,
as LREF guidance suggests that storms will only have a few hundred
J/kg of surface CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability) to take
advantage of. All areas have a 30% chance or less of receiving
greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation from these storms based on
24 hr precipitation guidance from the NBM.

Temperatures are expected to fall once the trough passes over the
forecast area, though the timing is very uncertain at this time. The
trough may pass through as early as Sunday, which is reflected in
the forecast highs of the upper 70s and mid 80s. However, as
long as the trough remains west of the forecast area, similar
conditions to Saturday could be expected. Showers and
thunderstorms are forecast on Sunday as well, though chances
are not much better than that of Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1111 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the
period at both sites. Winds should remain from the south with
speeds around 20 kts and gusts to 30 kts through about 06-09Z
when a cold front pushes through. Winds should then lower closer
to 10-15 kts from the north. Even with the strong surface winds,
there should also be some low level wind shear around 03-09Z
with the low level jet developing 40-45 kts a few hundred feet
above the surface. KGLD will likely only have the jet until
around 06Z as it shifts east/south. Both sites have a chance for
storms between 20-09Z, but the storm activity is currently
favored just west of the sites. Stay alert and keep an eye out
for updates as a storm or two may mover over the site and
produce wind gusts of 30-50 kts. KMCK has the slightly higher
chance with the best window around 04-08Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...CA