298
FXUS62 KGSP 221745
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1245 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Slightly higher snowfall totals through Monday across portions of
the NC mountains, but no change to hazards.

Relative humidity values lowered to below 20% across much of the
area Tue afternoon...enhancing the fire danger.

PoPs increased to 80-90% across the entire forecast area on Thursday
in association with a cold front.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Accumulating snow with gusty NW winds across portions of the
mountains near the TN border through Monday, with below normal
temperatures through Tuesday. The snow will cause mainly travel
problems along the TN border.
2. Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected each
afternoon through Tuesday.
3. Temperatures warm during the latter half of the week, with a
cold front likely bringing a band of showers/possibly embedded
thunderstorms Thursday into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Accumulating snow with gusty NW winds across portions
of the mountains near the TN border through Monday, with below
normal temperatures through Tuesday. The snow will cause mainly
travel problems along the TN border.

Upper low will dig across the Appalachians today, with cyclogenesis
off the NC coast rapidly deepening the surface low. This of course
has implications further north, but the increasing surface pressure
gradient between the low and the arctic high building into the
Northern Plains will result in very gusty NW winds across the area
today and tonight, continuing into Monday, especially across the
mountains where gusts especially >3500ft will be well into Advisory
range, possibly peaking out >60mph at the very highest elevations.
Will continue to wrap this wording into the WSW.

Deep moisture associated with the upper low will continue to batter
against the mountains, leading to a prolonged period of NW flow
snow. Some disagreement in QPF among operational and ensemble
guidance, but certainly could see some hefty amounts given the
extremely cold temps and high snow ratios. NBM accums were quite a
bit higher than last night with some areas in the smokies and near
Roan Mtn approaching 20". Pulled back on those amounts given the
shallow moisture but considering 50kt winds at 850mb tonight plus
multiple rounds of DPVA spinning around the larger vort lobe, would
not be surprised if some areas outperform the current forecast.
Operational GFS keeps 700mb fairly saturated through 15-18z Monday
at temps -15 to -12C, so plenty of dendritic snow growth potential.
Highest amounts will as usual be at the highest elevations so will
continue products as they are (WSW for Avery and >3500ft Mitchell,
WSY for most of the rest of the border counties except >3500ft
Swain). Certainly expect some snow showers at the lower elevations
but minimal if any accumulations.

With the very strong CAA, temperatures will be well below normal
through Monday night, improving slightly on Tuesday. Wind chills
tonight at some of the highest elevations will meet Cold Weather
Advisory criteria, so per coordination with surrounding offices will
wrap that wording into the WSW as well. Cold and blustery on Monday,
more than 15 degrees below seasonal normals. High pressure will
slide toward the Deep South Monday night and the pressure gradient
will weaken, and expect even colder temperatures though wind chills
will be slightly improved.


Key message 2: Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected each
afternoon through Tuesday.

Sustained winds out of the NW of 15 to 25 mph, with gusts generally
in the 40-50 mph range are expected across the mountains late this
afternoon through much of Monday before diminishing Monday evening.
Much of upstate South Carolina, northeast Georgia, and the NC
Piedmont is expected to see near-critical RH this afternoon, with
better chances for critical RH for all areas outside the mountains
expected Mon afternoon. These conditions will elevate the fire
danger, especially across the foothills, where a wetting rainfall
failed to occur Sat/Sat night.

Widespread very low/critical RH...15-20% in most areas...is expected
Tue afternoon, although winds are expected to be considerably
weaker...out of the SW mostly at 5-10 mph Tue afternoon.
Nevertheless, the fire danger will again be elevated, mainly in
locations east of the NC counties bordering TN, where at least some
snowpack is expected to linger into Tue. Though the overall fire
danger will be elevated, below-normal temperatures could be a
limiting factor.


Key message 3: Temperatures warm during the latter half of the week,
with a cold front likely bringing a band of showers/possibly
embedded thunderstorms Thursday into Friday.

A short wave trough and attendant cyclone will progress across the
Great Lakes and New England during mid-week, with a baroclinic zone
forecast to stretch from the central Plains through the Ohio Valley
into New England. A warm sector with return SW low level flow will
become established across the Southeast from Wed onward, as large
scale height falls overspread the central Conus. Conditions will
quickly warm as a result, with temperatures generally forecast to be
5-10 degrees above climo from Wed through the end of the forecast
period. Cyclogenesis associated with aforementioned height falls
will activate a warm frontal zone across the region Wed night
into early Thu, with mostly chance PoPs warranted across much of
our forecast area. As a cyclone lifts toward the northeast Conus
by late Thursday, global models remain in excellent agreement in
dragging a well-forced cold frontal boundary through the southern
Appalachians and vicinity, with more than adequate moisture flux
forecast to support 80-90 PoPs in all areas by Thu evening. Global
models continue to hint at the potential for a narrow ribbon of
surface-based instability to accompany the front through the CWA,
with shear likely being more than adequate for a low-end severe
storm threat...IF any positive buoyancy is realized.

Showers are expected to clear out Thu night/early Fri. However,
small PoPs are maintained through much of the weekend as global
models indicate some degree of an active upstream pattern, with
at least some global models depicting light precip development
along the remnant baroclinic zone draped across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR cigs beginning to push out of the
Piedmont at TAF time, but with increasing moisture tonight expect
restrictions to remain across a chunk of the mountains, and cannot
rule out brief restrictions with -SHSN at KAVL in the overall
northwest flow pattern, with PROB30 remaining in the TAF to cover
this during the early overnight hours. Otherwise mainly a wind
forecast with gusty NW winds across the area. Winds will weaken
slightly overnight, and it`s possible gusts may drop off across
Piedmont TAFs, but this would be brief and would pick up again
Monday with increased mixing. Cannot rule out FEW-SCT VFR Cu Monday
afternoon but no restrictions expected at terminals.

Outlook: Quiet weather returns to region for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Another system will approach the area Thursday, bringing showers and
associated restrictions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Winter Storm Warning until midnight EST Monday night for
     NCZ033-050.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST Monday night for
     NCZ048>052.
SC...None.

&&

$$

JDL/TDP