973
FXUS62 KGSP 160627
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
127 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Another very warm day today before a mostly dry cold front brings a
return to near-normal temperatures along with gusty winds and very
dry air tonight through Monday. Conditions will become very warm
again during the latter half of the week ahead of the next cold
front, which may bring better chances of rain by next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1255 AM EST Sunday: Upper trough will be draped from central
Canada through the Great Lakes and northeastern CONUS through
most of the forecast period. An attendant cold front encroaching
from the northwest should enter the mountains at or just before
daybreak and slip south and east through the rest of the CWFA by
the afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface winds are steadily
out of the southwest, allowing for continued shallow moisture
advection. Low-level winds just above the surface are steadily
west-northwesterly, which should help to develop showers overnight
through daybreak along the immediate Tennessee border and higher
peaks thanks to orographic enhancement, despite the shallow layer
of moisture available. Current radar is already picking up on light
reflectivity in portions of the mountains. Not expecting any of
the precip to break containment outside of the mountains due to
the steady downslope component and lack of available moisture,
but scattered coverage of stratocu is moving into portions of the
foothills and Upper Savannah Valley and could expand further outside
of these locations. Tight pressure gradient and elevated winds
above the surface (850mb winds: 30-40 kts) will support very gusty
winds across the mountains, especially in the northern mountains
where a Wind Advisory for gusts up to 50 mph remains in effect
for Avery County and above 3500` in Yancey and Mitchell counties
through noon. Overnight lows will run 12-18 degrees above normal
with cloud cover and precip over the mountains and southwesterly
WAA elsewhere, allowing dewpoints to be in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Any lingering showers in the mountains should quickly diminish
at or shortly after daybreak as strong dry air entrainment will
be present behind the cold front. Dewpoints are expected to crash
behind the front across the CWFA late morning through the afternoon
once surface winds veer to a west to northwesterly component, which
will drop RH values between 25%-35%. This, combined with gusty
winds will increase dangerous fire weather conditions, especially
outside of the mountains. Plan is to keep the Fire Danger Statement
in place until further guidance is given from land managers as RH
values hover mostly above 25% and gusts remain below 30 mph, which
is just below Red Flag Warning criteria. Wouldn`t be surprised if
a few counties in the North Carolina foothills and Piedmont are
upgraded later in the morning. A few bouts of cirrus and stratocu
along the main cold front as it slides through will be about all
that develops outside of the mountains with the exception of ongoing
gusty winds. Compressional warming ahead of the front and continuous
downsloping will lead to afternoon highs to rise 10-15 degrees
above normal outside of the mountains. CAA behind the front should
keep afternoon highs in the mountains at or slightly above normal
as the colder air response will be delayed outside of the mountains.

CAA should settle over the rest of the CWFA overnight tonight as a
surface high moves in from the northwest. A few high clouds can`t
be ruled out with the presence of the jet streak draped just north
of the region. Lingering low-end gusts are expected over the higher
terrain, while the rest of the gusts elsewhere should gradually
subside after sunset. Outside of a few bouts of cirrus overnight,
mostly clear skies will persist. However, boundary layers will
struggle to fully decouple, especially in locations outside of
sheltered valleys and usual drainage areas. CAA will lead to
overnight lows generally a few ticks below normal, but will may dip
up to 4-8 degrees below normal depending on how much the atmosphere
can fully decouple and take advantage of otherwise decent
radiational cooling conditions during the early morning hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1215 AM Sunday: A long wave ridge will build across the
central Conus during the short term...downstream of significant West
Coast height falls. A compact upper low will ride atop the ridge
across the central Rockies and central Great Plains on Monday,
opening up and shearing out as it progresses into increasingly
confluent flow across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic during the
latter half of the period. Forcing associated with this feature will
activate the broad baroclinic zone across the region late Tue into
Tue night, but precip chances will be highest north of our forecast
area, and only token small PoPs appear warranted across the
mountains from late Tue into early Wed.

In the interim, fire weather will remain the primary concern for
Monday, as the air mass will remain very dry...with precipitable
water values of around 0.25". See the Fire Weather discussion below
for further details. Otherwise, temperatures will be near-normal Mon
and Mon night, again warming to above-normal levels Tue/Tue night,
as return flow becomes established within developing warm sector
regime.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1235 AM Sunday: A complex split flow regime is expected
to become established over the Conus during the extended, with a
long wave southern stream ridge becoming established over the
southeast quadrant of the country, and a quasi-zonal/active northern
stream expected to impact the Northeast. Meanwhile, multiple rounds
of height falls overspreading the Desert Southwest will carve out a
broad and rather deep trough there. The timing of these short wave
features ejecting into the central Conus and how they interact with
the northern stream will have the largest implication on sensible
weather in the Southeast during the latter half of the extended.

In the interim, the big story will be the major warming trend that
is forecast Wed/Thu under rising heights aloft/a maturing warm
sector regime. Temperatures are expected to be around 15 degrees
above climo during this time...and it`s not out of the question that
some of our warmer locations could reach 80 degrees on one or both
afternoons. There is enough signal in the deterministic global
models to begin increasing PoPs by late Friday...when the potential
for warm frontal activation associated with aforementioned height
falls will begin to increase. PoPs continue to increase into
Saturday, when models are in generally good agreement that a cold
front may make some inroads into the region. However, model signals
are such that Fri night/Saturday PoPs generally peak at 50% across
the mountains, and at 30-40% across the remainder of the area.
Forecast temps moderate somewhat to end the week, while remaining
well above climo.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail through the
forecast period. Can`t rule out brief MVFR cigs at KAVL between
06Z and 13Z as a few showers may traverse across the terminal. BKN
Stratocu has developed over KAVL as well and should stick around
until a cold front moves across the area shortly after daybreak. In
this case, placed a VCSH mention at KAVL through 13Z, but confidence
is too low for a PROB30 and associated restrictions at this
time. Southwesterly winds will continue through the overnight hours,
with low-end gusts. Winds will veer to a west to northwesterly
behind the front and timed that based on current guidance and
latest trends, but generally at or shortly after 12Z. LLWS criteria
is also being met at 30-40 kts out of the southwest, so placed a
mention at all TAF sites through daybreak. Stratocu deck is breaking
containment outside of the mountains, which lead to the addition of
a prevailing FEW/SCT050 mention for all terminals. Gusty conditions
will pick up and linger into the afternoon and evening hours before
gradually subsiding after sunset. Can`t rule out some VFR stratocu
along the cold front. Mostly clear skies expected tonight behind
the front with lighter northwesterly winds.

Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions with diminishing winds on Monday. A
low pressure system may bring scattered showers and associated
restrictions on Tuesday, possibly lingering into Wednesday. Dry
high pressure returns on Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A very dry air mass will settle in behind a departing cold
front later this morning and afternoon, leading to RH values
crashing below close to 25% across the North Carolina foothills
and Piedmont. This combined with gusty winds (20-30 mph) will
create Increased Fire Danger conditions in this area. Conditions
flirt with Red Flag Warning criteria, but will let land managers
make the decision for portions of the aforementioned area later
this morning due to the borderline values. Cooler temperatures
and precip will keep RH percentages high enough to preclude
dangerous fire conditions in the North Carolina mountains despite
stronger wind gusts (30-40+ mph). Low RH values and gusty winds
are expected in Upstate South Carolina and northeast Georgia
during the afternoon hours, but not to the extent of the North
Carolina foothills and Piedmont zones as these locations will
receive Increased Fire Danger Conditions for a longer period
of time due to the overall timing and orientation of the frontal
passage from the northwest. This will still need to be monitored
for all of the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia outside of
the mountains as an expansion of the Fire Danger Statement may be
needed, as well as a Red Flag Warning for portions of the western
North Carolina foothills and Piedmont.

Winds will diminish and temperatures will cool Monday. However, the
air mass will be very dry, and minimum RH in the 15-20% range is
expected across much of the forecast area during the afternoon. A
Fire Danger Statement will likely be needed across at least a part
of the area. Conditions will begin to moisten up Mon night into Tue,
but one more day with critical RH is possible Tue afternoon.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Wind Advisory until noon EST today for NCZ033-049-050.
     Increased Fire Danger from noon EST today through this evening
     for NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...CAC
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...CAC
FIRE WEATHER...CAC/JDL