Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
163 FXUS64 KHGX 162257 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 557 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Daytime relative humidity values higher today, but dry vegetation keeps moderate to high fire danger rating for the area. - Unseasonably warm weather continues as high temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s persist into early next. - Chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms Friday and Saturday. Isolated activity expected today. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1101 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 The warm and mostly dry pattern continues today, with temperatures generally skewing about 5 degrees warmer than average. That translates to afternoon highs in the mid/upper 80s, with a few spots up around 90 degrees. However, a plume of higher PWATs is pushing towards the region, increasing atmospheric moisture over SE Texas. Isolated showers, primarily at the coast and offshore, are expected today as a result. Moisture levels increase further on Friday and Saturday ahead of an eastward progressing deep-layer trough in the mid/upper levels and a frontal boundary at the surface. This should result in a better chance of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on both days. PoPs generally average 30-40% across the CWA both days. We cannot rule out isolated stronger thunderstorms on Saturday. For now, the best dynamics for strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to be north of our region. That being said, the Storm Prediction Center has placed our northern Piney Woods counties in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms. The flow pattern for next week appears to be somewhat amplified and progressive, with the SE Texas atmosphere being intermittently influenced why eastward moving troughs and ridges. We find ourselves on the backside of the aforementioned mid/upper trough on Sunday, before a ridge takes hold late Sunday into Monday. But this may be short-lived, as another trough looks to eject eastward from the Rockies into central CONUS by Tuesday. A frontal boundary on Tuesday could bring isolated to scattered showers to the region. Afternoon temperatures expected to remain in the mid/upper 80s to low 90s into early next week. However, we could be talking about some of the "coolest" air of the season by the second half of the week. But by "coolest" I mean highs mostly in the low/mid 80s with lows ranging from the mid 50s to low/mid 60s. So the current predicted cooldown is more of a reversion to normal for a couple days. Self && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 543 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions with SE winds between 5-10kt will persist through this evening. While the southeasterly winds will continue overnight, they will likely drop to below 5kt. The lighter winds and increase in moisture will allow for a period of MVFR CIGs to develop of around 2000ft late tonight into early Friday morning with some patchy fog possible as well. The northern terminals (CLL, UTS, and CXO) may even experience period of IFR conditions with CIGs down to 700ft if winds become calm. These MVFR to possibly IFR conditions will dissipate by the mid-morning as the southeasterly winds increase back to 6-10kt, which will persist through the rest of the day. There will also be a chance of isolated morning showers at the coast that expand inland through the afternoon. Have include PROB30s for CXO southwards, generally between 17-22z (a little earlier at GLS and a little later at CXO), for -SHRA. Isolated moderate to heavy showers (and an isolated thunderstorm) will be possible south of I-10 that could result in temporary category degradations due to reduced visibility or a period of lower CIGs. Activity will wane in the evening, but expect the chances to return on Saturday. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 1101 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Light to moderate east to southeast winds should increase somewhat as we head into Friday and Saturday. Winds today are expected to average 7-12 knots with seas of 1-3 feet. Isolated to widely scattered showers expected as well. For Friday into Saturday morning, winds are expected to average 12-17 knots with Gulf seas building to 3-5 feet. Winds are expected to decrease somewhat while gradually veering to the south and south-southwest on Saturday as a frontal boundary approaches. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on both Friday and Saturday. Drier conditions expected in the front`s wake on Sunday, with winds veering from the west to north, northeast, east, then southeast between Sunday morning and Monday morning. Southeasterly flow is expected to persist until a cold front brings the potential for moderate northeasterly winds (15-20 knots) by Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1101 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Atmospheric conditions are generally improving regarding the fire weather risk. This is due to higher moisture levels bringing higher relatively humidity. That being said, vegetation remains dry, providing plenty of fuel. Therefore, the fire risk remains enhanced despite the improving atmospheric conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 64 87 69 92 / 10 20 0 30 Houston (IAH) 71 86 73 90 / 20 30 10 40 Galveston (GLS) 77 84 77 85 / 30 30 10 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Self AVIATION...Fowler MARINE...Self