Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 230230

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
930 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Little bit of stratus trying to form near Matagorda county. Based
on the big changes to the moisture in the 00z CRP soundings have
increased cloud cover for the western areas after midnight. Winds
still fairly strong along the coast and in the northwest areas.
Don`t expect winds to fully decouple overnight so have adjusted
temperatures up a degree or two. Should be breezy and warm



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018/

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the first half of
the TAF period with MVFR ceilings spreading into the Houston
terminals and northward after 12Z as a low level jet noses over
the region. Daytime heating is expected to allow for these
ceilings to lift/scatter to VFR by late morning, but mixing will
allow for gusts around 20-25 knots to translate to the surface
late morning through the afternoon. Otherwise, southeast winds
10-15 knots this evening will fall below 10 knots by 05Z,
increasing to around 10-15 knots again after sunrise.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018/

Generally dry/quiet weather to prevail these next couple of days as
temperatures/dewpoints slowly climb. Upper level ridging along with
with the return of moderate/strong S-SE winds will be the main fea-
tures as the airmass over the region modifies. As the upper ridging
begins to flatten out over the weekend and the next surface low be-
gins to develop/track across the Central Plains, the persistent WAA
could be enough to support some isolated SHRAs under the cap during
early Sat/Sun mornings. Progged soundings/upper dynamics indicating
slightly better chances for POPS Sun/Mon...then steadily increasing
during the first part of the week as the embedded disturbances move
across the area from the SW. Timing looks to be the main issue here
as the deepening upper trough over northern Mexico ejects the short
wave energy in our direction. Per the long-range guidance, the best
rain chances could be from late Tues into early Thurs with some no-
table features coming into play. PWs ranging from 1.6 to 2.0 inches
along with the approaching upper low itself (via far West TX) and a
cold front are all pointing to a wet middle of next week (providing
all this verifies). 41

Fairly tight pressure gradient should keep a moderate onshore flow
in place through the weekend and into early next week. Look for a
gradual increase in seas as the fetch and time duration both
lengthen. Will likely need a combo of caution/advisory flags for the
next several days with slight wind/seas fluctuation. Conditions will
probably worsen as the gradient further tightens across the western
Gulf for much of next week. With the increase in surf heights along
the beaches, the risk of strengthening rip currents will also
persist thru the weekend into next week as well.  47


College Station (CLL)      57  82  64  83  65 /   0  10  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              57  81  65  81  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
Galveston (GLS)            65  76  67  77  68 /   0  10  10  10  10


     the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
     Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.



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