Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 290027
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
727 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

The cold front that has been stuck in the area the past few days
has finally moved out to the east resulting in rapid clearing of
the skies. Expect clear skies to continue through the period with
the main forecast concern for tomorrow being the gusty
northwesterly winds of 20kts inland and up to 30kts near the
coast.

Fowler

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 338 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020/...

.SHORT TERM [Through Tomorrow]...

The surface front has passed through the CWA bringing the typical
northwesterly wind shift and cooler temperatures. Now we are
watching the 850mb front to push through and start to clear out the
skies. Currently that is located right about in the middle of the
CWA in a north to south orientation.  Through the evening and
overnight hours, cool dry air will push into the region clearing out
clouds, fog chances, and any weather to speak of. The only down fall
of this pattern now (if you want to find a downside) is going to be
the winds. While it has already been a bit breezy today with the
tighter gradient associated with the frontal boundary, tomorrow is
looking to be a bit windier. As the low currently in the TX
panhandle tracks along the TX/OK border tomorrow, a finger of the
upper level jet will be just along the northern portion of the CWA.
In the northern counties, close to wind advisory levels would not be
unexpected and decrease in speeds the closer to the coast; though
still looking like around 15mph sustained with higher gusts. Winds
will decrease late evening as the low track to the northeast
leaving a northerly breeze. 35


.LONG TERM [Tomorrow Night through Tuesday]...

We continue to anticipate an extended period of cool, dry, and
generally benign weather following the departure of today`s
stationary frontal boundary. Both the GFS and ECMWF solutions this
afternoon depict the development of a persistent upper ridge across
the south-central CONUS by Friday, providing us with our first
prolonged period of Autumn-like weather across SE Texas. It should
be a fairly pleasant weekend for outdoor activities, with clear
skies, daytime highs in the upper 60s to low 70s, and nighttime lows
in the 40s to low 50s. With northerly winds continuing to allow
crisp drier air to filter into the area and dew points staying
generally in the 40s, a light jacket may be a wise choice for an
evening stroll around the neighborhood or backyard campfire.

As surface high pressure shifts off to the east on Sunday, the
resultant return flow will promote slightly warmer temperatures and
higher (yet still relatively comfortable) dew points as afternoon
highs jump into the mid to upper 70s. This onshore flow regime will
be short lived, however, as a weak surface cold front will traverse
SE Texas late Sunday into early Monday. Beyond a return to northerly
flow, this FROPA will be largely uneventful as a general lack of
available moisture (total PWs < 1.0 in) will be unfavorable for
the development of any precipitation.

Pleasant, fall-like conditions continue into next week with daytime
highs returning to the upper 60s to low 70s and skies staying
generally clear. Our next chance for measurable rainfall may come
towards the end of next week with the redevelopment of an onshore
flow pattern, though it remains too early at this point to discuss
this with any degree of confidence.

Cady


.MARINE...

Winds and seas on the increase post frontal and with the passage of
Hurricane Zeta. Buoy 42035 NW 23g30kt and 42019 NW 25g31kt and seas
there have built quickly to 11 feet. As Hurricane Zeta swings by to
the east and nears the LA coast making landfall shortly should see
these seas here across the Upper Tex coast peak in the next couple
of hours then fall steadily this evening in the nearshore...a little
more slowly in the offshore waters. SCA conditions will remain
across the Gulf waters through Thursday afternoon with CAA (and
interaction with Zeta early in the forecast) so have extended it.
Tides have started to fall with the moderate to strong NW flow and
even though it is at or nearing high tide time on the Gulf coast and
near low tide at Manchester. The flow should continue to drawdown
the water levels and may get close to needing a low water advisory
for the upper channel area around 3 am. Not confident enough yet to
issue one so will likely leave that to the evening shift to track
this trend. Winds pick back up with CAA Thursday and will get gusty
again though not as strong as it is now. Winds finally drop off to
NE 10-15kts by Friday afternoon. High pressure over the area and LA
will keep winds light through Saturday evening then the next
reinforcing cold front slides through and backs the winds from east
to northeast Sunday afternoon and will likely be getting back into
SCEC/SCA conditions.

NHC has also begun to highlight the next system in the Caribbean
with a 20 percent chance of development.  If it is the next to get
named (Eta) it would become a record setter...welcome to 2020.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  41  60  44  68  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)          46  63  47  68  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)        53  66  53  65  60 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for the
     following zones: Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CDT Thursday for the following
     zones: Galveston Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
     Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
     Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
     to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...35
LONG TERM...CADY
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...45


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