Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 161729
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.AVIATION...

Close to a persistence forecast as the environment stays mainly
unchanged. Added VCTS mention to SGR and LBX as that appears to be
where the best instability is early this afternoon. VCSH as far
inland as IAH may be a bit aggressive, but left it in as
informational as the impact will not be severe and there will be
showers not far to the south, even if not quite within the 10
mile circle.

Overnight, largely go persistence from this morning for who may
see a brief BKN025, then leave the others VFR with SCT025 or
better.

Luchs

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018/

UPDATE...
Quick update to raise pops for areas mainly south of the I-10
corridor and focused over the areas to the southwest of
Richmond/Sugarland. Temperatures on track for another hot day with
highs in the mid to upper 90s inland and lower 90s coast.
Subsidence should start to win out this afternoon and expect
storms to become more isolated and dissipate between 3 and 5 pm as
weak mid/lower level s/w ridging slides into the area.
45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Southeast Texas will continue to see low mainly daytime
rain chances (mainly central and south) for the remain-
der of the week and over the weekend as weak mid/upper
level ridging remains in place. Look for near normal to
slightly above normal temperatures to persist. Gradually
increasing rain chances are still in the forecast for
much of the area next week as the ridging shifts off to
the west. This pattern change might bring a slow moving
cold front into the area toward the middle to end of the
week that could become a focus for better storm coverage.

42

MARINE...
Typical summertime marine wx pattern will continue into the weekend.
Light to moderate onshore winds will prevail. Gradient tightens a
touch on Sun/Mon so anticipate a slight bump in wind speeds and
seas, but still likely below SCEC thresholds. 47

AVIATION...
Can`t rule out some patchy/intermittent MVFR cigs into mid
morning...but overall would expect VFR conditions should persist
thru most of the TAF period. Isolated shra/tsra will again be
possible across the southern half of the CWA today. Debating whether
to add some VCSH`s to the 12z TAFs for the Houston terminals
between 21-24z.  47

CLIMATE...
At this time last year, Galveston was experiencing very warm overnight
low temperatures. The 16th was the 3rd of five consecutive days when
the low temperature do not fall below 84 degrees. Dating back to 1874,
the 85 degrees observed on the 16th tied for the all-time record high
minimum temperature on record.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      97  75  97  75  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              95  77  94  77  94 /  20  10  10  10  10
Galveston (GLS)            92  82  89  82  89 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...45
Aviation/Marine...25


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