Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

FXUS64 KHGX 241923

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
223 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

.SHORT TERM [Through Friday Night]...

Hot and muggy conditions will prevail for remainder of the afternoon
with heat indices 105-110. Iso/sct precip should taper off early
this evening with the loss of heating. SSE winds will likely remain
in the 5-10mph range for much of the night so am not really
anticipating much of a cooldown with lows in the 77-83 degree range.

Continued upper ridging will try its best to suppress precip on Fri,
but still anticipate similar coverage to what we`re currently seeing
out there this afternoon. Though daytime highs on Fri should again
be between 90-95, slightly lower dewpoints and higher wind speeds
are forecast which should make conditions feel a touch better.
Precip tapers off again in the early evening hours. 47

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...

The synoptic pattern begins to change over the weekend as the upper
level ridge over Texas slides westward and a trough digs in from
the northwest. This trough gets stuck within the Central US
through midweek next week between the aforementioned high
pressure to the west and another high pressure off the East Coast.
This will keep a chance of precipitation across the northern
third of our region for most of long term - however, this is
dependent on exactly where the upper level trough stalls. If the
high pressure to the east is weaker or situated further east, then
the upper level trough will be able to slide a bit further into
our region. The opposite could happen too where the high pressure
is bit stronger or located further west keeping the trough out of
our area. There will be shortwaves retrograding around the base of
the high pressure to the east bringing periods of higher chances
of precipitation for our entire area. The first shortwave looks to
move in from the Gulf late Sunday into Monday, and then another
one towards the end of the long term.

Mostly cloudy skies will help to hamper the extreme heat through the
week, but high temperatures are still expected to be in the upper
80s to mid 90s for the entire period. PWATs of 1.8 to 2+ inches will
last through the week, so don`t expect the humid conditions to go




Onshore flow will continue into the weekend and through next
week. Strength of the onshore flow will be diurnally driven with
wind speeds during the daytime hours between 5 and 10 knots, and
then overnight speeds increasing to 10 to 15 knots. There may be
occasional periods of slightly stronger winds, but nothing more
than caution flag criteria. The continued onshore flow could lead
to elevated rip currents through the week along Gulf facing
beaches. Wave heights will be between 2 and 4 feet all week long.
Chances of showers and thunderstorms increase over the weekend and
last through most of next week.



.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 1206 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021/...

Scattered shra/tstm activity currently stretching from Edna-
Houston-Liberty (with best coverage now east of I-45 and north of
I-10) will continue to slowly lift northward this afternoon.
Hires guidance shows an overall slow decline in precip later in
the day as mixing/capping comes into play further north of the
metro area. Regardless, the majority will dissipate early this
evening with the loss of heating. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
persist thru the late evening hours followed by a return of MVFR
stratus north of I-10 late tonight into the early-mid morning
hours Fri. Typical summertime iso/sct precip around the area again
during the day Fri. 47



College Station (CLL)  78  93  77  94  74 /   0  10   0  10   0
Houston (IAH)          79  93  78  93  76 /   0  40  10  30  20
Galveston (GLS)        83  90  83  90  81 /  10  20  20  20  20





$$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.