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000
FXUS64 KHGX 252320
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023

Today`s weak frontal boundary is currently positioned over the
northern half of our CWA, with showers/thunderstorms ongoing over
this area. These showers/storms should propagate southward later
this afternoon, increasing in coverage as peak heating occurs.
Cooling aloft from an upper level trough/cutoff low over the Upper
Mississippi River Valley has further aided in destabilization, with
SPC Mesoscale analysis showing 1500-2500 J/KG of ML CAPE across SE
Texas. Meager amounts of shear will greatly inhibit the strength of
these storms, but ample instability will still put most of SE Texas
under a marginal (level 1/5) threat of severe weather this
afternoon. The strongest of these storms will be capable of
producing strong winds and locally heavy rainfall.

The weak frontal boundary should stall out along the coastline this
evening with rain chances waning overnight, especially inland. Lows
should be in the upper 60s/upper 70s. With today`s rainfall and
cooler ground conditions, portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods
area may see patchy fog develop during the early morning hours of
Tuesday. Slightly cooler/drier air should should filter into SE
Texas tomorrow, decreasing cloud cover and bringing highs in the
upper 80s/lower 90s for Tuesday. Scattered to isolated thunderstorms
will be possible throughout the day, though activity should be
mostly confined to areas along the coastline. Lows for Tuesday night
should be a tad cooler, but still generally in the 60s/70s across
the region.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023

We`ll be situated in somewhat of a weakness aloft in the midweek
period...generally between a ridge centered over Baja and a trof
over the Great Lakes/Midwest. PW`s will be a bit lower than they
have been the past few days (generally in the 1.5-1.8" range
south of the US-59/I-69 corridor). This should still be enough to
get some scattered, mainly diurnally driven activity to develop
there...more isolated further north where moisture availability
will be lower.

Later in the week and into the weekend, a mid-upper trof will dig
southward down western parts of the country. This should allow
for ridging to transition back northeastward from Mexico, across
east Texas and into the Great Lakes as it current trof departs to
the east. In addition to warmer temps, the resulting subsidence
will make it tougher for rainfall development. Exception will probably
be offshore and closer to the beaches where we`ll see a fairly persistent
easterly fetch of moisture streaming across the northern periphery
of a surface trof located in the southern Gulf. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023

Generally east to west oriented SHRA/TSRA complex will continue making
its way to the coast and offshore early this evening. Gusty winds (been
up to 40 knots so far), locally heavy rain, frequent lightning, MVFR
ceilings and IFR visibilities will be possible at LBX and GLS. Other
TAF sites will be clearing out with just cirrus overnight. Could see
some patchy MVFR fog develop at some inland spots too. Tomorrow should
see less SHRA/TSRA development (will go with VCSH for now from IAH
southward.

42

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023

Light winds and low seas are anticipated the next several days. A
weak frontal boundary will be in the process of washing out across
the area, though this feature, along with the seabreeze, could
serve as a focus for thunderstorm development at times this
evening into Tuesday. Winds variable/higher and rough seas in and
near any storms. Winds will trend more toward an east northeast
direction toward midweek in association with a surface trough of
low pressure situated near the Yucatan. With a lengthening fetch
of moderate winds, look for seas to climb into the 3 to 5 foot
range heading into the weekend. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  72  91  70  93 /  20  10  10  20
Houston (IAH)  74  91  73  93 /  40  20  20  30
Galveston (GLS)  77  87  78  89 /  30  30  50  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$