Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 261135

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
635 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019


12Z Aviation...A reinforcing cold front is moving through this
morning. N-NE winds will increase to 5 to 10 kts behind this
boundary. By late afternoon, winds will become SE, but wind speeds
should generally remain under 10 knots. 33


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019/

Early this morning the area is dominated by weak high pressure
with a second cold front moving toward the area. G16 Total-PW
clearly shows the surge of drier air approaching with winds
getting a little stronger near the boundary which went through
Corsicana and is near a Jacksonville-Cameron line at 09z.
This front should move through SETX this morning bringing more
pleasant spring weather.

Dry northerly flow on tap today with full sun. Weather through
the weekend nearly Chamber of Commerce weather. Warm and dry today
and Saturday then moistening up as high pressure drifts into the
Gulf and return flow gets underway. Initially of course the
moisture return is sparse but by Sunday the dewpoints should climb
into the upper 60s near the coast. Sunscreen is probably in order
if you are going to be out today with 14 hours of sunshine under
clear skies...especially in the late morning- afternoon hours. The
upper ridging over West Texas this morning will flatten then
rebound over SETX late Sunday/Monday leading to warmer
temperatures as well as the increase in moisture. Upper trough
moving into southern CA Monday should fill and shear out
increasing heights over SETX and keeping us rain-free through
Tuesday morning. A broad upper trough over the Intermountain West
will place TX in southwest flow aloft with a series of weak
disturbances moving out of the Pacific and across Central TX and
possibly SETX Wednesday/Thursday (timing these is fraught with
great uncertainty) but the pattern is certainly becoming more
favorable for a big rain event over Texas. ECMWF/GFS differ on the
timing and placement though the trend has been slower and is
focusing now on the late Thursday and Friday time frame over SETX.
This time of year expect some big changes/swings in rain chances
6/7 days out.

1.25" PW arrives Tuesday and we could see some sprinkles under the
cap. Wednesday should see the first big surge in moisture with
1.75" PW and then a series of these arriving probably culminating
Thursday or Friday 1.85-2.0" as a cold front sags down into the
state and over SETX Friday or Saturday. Perhaps May is going to
come in like a wet lion.


The center of a surface high pressure area will continue to move
south into SE TX this afternoon and then off to our east by this
evening. In response, winds will become northeasterly this morning
then become onshore and light overnight. Onshore winds will
strengthen late Saturday as the high retreats and low pressure
deepens across west Texas. Moderate to occasionally strong onshore
flow will be in place through much of next week with a steady
increase in wave heights as a persistent southeast fetch develops.
By late next week, a cold front will approach and may push offshore
on Friday or Saturday. 33


College Station (CLL)      81  60  83  63  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              85  61  83  64  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            82  68  78  69  78 /   0   0   0   0   0




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