Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 200544
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1144 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020

.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...

Spotty shower activity thus far tonight has remained well north
of I-10 while low IFR to LIFR cigs have continued to persist at
all terminals. Coverage of showers should increase heading into
the overnight hours as a cold front pushes through SE Texas, which
will bring with it periods of rainfall along and ahead of the
advancing boundary. Rainfall coverage and intensity will
diminish in the southern portion of the area as the surface
boundary gradually weakens through the night. IFR cigs look to
continue heading into Thursday morning, but a gradual improvement
to MVFR and later VFR conditions will be in store by the
afternoon. Moderate to strong northwest winds will develop behind
the departing front, with some gusts potentially reaching upwards
of 25 kts.

Cady

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020/

SHORT TERM [Through Thursday]...
Expect overcast skies and scattered showers to continue through the
rest of today and into tomorrow morning. An 850mb front is still
located just to the north of the region where the current heaviest
rainfall is located. This boundary is expected to push southward
overnight tonight bringing with it increased coverage of showers.
The GFS and EC are quicker with bringing the front down with it
crossing into our northern counties by midnight, while the NAM and
other short term guidance is slower by about 3 to 6 hours. All
guidance agrees that as the front pushes south, it weakens resulting
in decreasing shower coverage. There will be quite the gradient in
precipitation totals with areas along and north of Madison, Walker,
and Polk counties receiving one to two inches, while Harris County
and areas southward will only end up with up to a quarter of an inch
or less. This gradient is because of the continued light showers
that are falling across the northern counties this afternoon and
the line of showers will be dissipating as it propagates southwards
tonight due to the weakening front. By noon tomorrow, most of the
showers will have moved offshore with some lingering showers
along the coast, but we can expect the mostly cloudy skies to
linger through the day. The passage of the front will usher in
moderate northerly winds tomorrow afternoon with sustained winds
of around 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20 to 25 kts. Stronger
winds will be possible along the immediate coast that will be
borderline to wind advisory criteria, but since it`s so close I`ll
defer the decision to a later shift.

Temperatures over the next 36 hours will basically just flat line
through the period because of the thick overcast skies and passage
of the front. Temperatures at midnight tonight will be in the low to
mid 50s across most of the area (down into the upper 40s along the
northern counties), but by noon tomorrow the temperatures will
basically be the exact same, if not a few degrees colder. With the
stronger northerly flow and decreasing cloud cover, tomorrow evening
and tomorrow night will be much colder.

Fowler

LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Wednesday]...
Precip should be well off the coast Thursday night and cloudiness
should be on a gradual decline as high pressure builds into the
region. Breezy and cool conditions are expected into Friday. With
mclr skies and light winds Friday night, overnight lows will dip
close to, or below, freezing overnight for areas generally north
of I-10...and esp east of I-45.

A gradual moderating trend is expected over the weekend as onshore
winds resume. The next upper trof will make its way across Rockies
and into the Plains on Sunday. Its associated frontal boundary
should push thru southeast Tx late Sunday night or Monday morning.
Though there may be some iso/sct shra in advance, expectations
aren`t too high as swly llvl flow in advance may pose a capping
limitation.

Dry wx should then persist in the wake of this front with a
reinforcing stronger front expected Tue night or Wed.  47

MARINE...
Expect overcast skies through the next 24 to 36 hours with scattered
showers developing overnight tonight and into tomorrow morning due to
a passing cold front. High pressure begins to slide down into the area
tomorrow resulting in a strong offshore flow. A Small Craft Advisory
has been issued for the Bays and all Gulf waters beginning on
Thursday from 9 am through 3 pm. Winds continue to increase late
Thursday afternoon through early Friday morning to near gale force,
so the Gale Watch remains in effect for that time period. The strong
winds will also increase seas to 4 to 6 feet in the near shore
waters and to 8 to 10 feet in the off shore waters by tomorrow
night. Winds and seas decrease Friday evening as high pressure
settles in overhead. The high pressure slides to the east over the
weekend ushering in light onshore flow by Saturday evening with sky
cover increasing on Sunday. The next cold front is expected to move
through the area on Monday.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      46  49  37  53  33 /  90  70  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)              50  52  38  54  33 /  80  70  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            53  57  42  53  42 /  70  70  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM CST Thursday for the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
     Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
     to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...
     Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20
     to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20
     to 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 6 AM to 9 AM CST
     Thursday for the following zones: Coastal waters from
     Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal
     waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...
     Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
     High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night
     for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
     to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
     High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...99
Aviation/Marine...99


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