Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 072043

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
243 PM CST Sun Mar 7 2021

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tomorrow/Monday Night]...

Another dry/quiet night on tap for SE TX with surface high pressure
hanging on to our east. Clear skies and decreasing E/SE winds later
this evening to produce another night of decent radiational cooling.
Low temperatures should range from around 40 over our northern CWFA
to the lower and mid 40s elsewhere inland...lower to mid 50s at the
immediate coast.

As the surface high weakens/moves further east, the subsequent and
more pronounced SE flow tomorrow will allow for the gradual return
of low-level moisture through the week. The increased dewpoints by
tomorrow night could be favorable for the development of some very
patchy fog by early Tues morning. Otherwise, look for warmer highs
tomorrow afternoon (lower to mid 70s inland...mid to upper 60s for
the coast) as well as lows tomorrow night (lower to mid 50s inland
and around 60 at the coast). 41


.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...

Weak upper level ridging will be located over South Texas with
surface high pressure over the eastern US. The upper ridge will
slowly move into the western Gulf while surface low pressure
develops in the lee of the Rockies. There will be very little day
to day change in the sensible weather as the upper level ridge
remains the dominant weather feature. This feature will suppress
rain chances and allow for above normal temperatures for the next
5-6 days. The onshore flow will strengthen as the low near the
Rockies deepens. With the low level moisture increasing, there
will be more low clouds overnight leading to warmer MinT values.
The upper ridge over the Gulf will foster a SW flow over the
region and this will tap Pacific moisture giving the region some
mid to high level clouds during the day. 850 mb temps warm from
10 C on Tuesday to 12.5 degrees on Wednesday and they should stay
between 12-13 C for the rest of the week. Daytime MaxT values will
probably top out in the lower/mid 70`s Tuesday and warm to near 80
for the rest of the week.

Some change in the weather pattern is expected next weekend as a
strong upper level low moves into the southern Rockies. This will
likely suppress the upper ridge over the Gulf leading to some
slightly cooler temperatures. The GFS remains much faster with a
cold front bringing it through the region on Saturday night while
the ECMWF brings the front through next Sunday night. Prefer the
slower solution at this time and have leaned toward a
WPC/ECMWF/GEM blend for winds and temperatures. The front should
generate a line of showers and storms next Sunday night as well.




Surface high pressure over the mid Tennessee valley will continue
to ridge into Texas tonight. The pressure gradient remains tight
this evening so borderline SCEC conditions over the Gulf waters
are possible this evening. The gradient is expected to relax later
tonight into Monday and winds should decrease. Low pressure will
develop in the lee of the Rockies on Tuesday and the pressure
gradient will begin to tighten. The surface low will move into the
southern plains on Wednesday and the gradient will tighten further
and a SCEC looks likely for parts of the Gulf Wednesday through
Friday. The pressure gradient will relax on Saturday as low
pressure develops in southwest Texas ut tighten again Saturday
night as the moves toward South Texas. A secondary area of low
pressure will develop over OK on Sunday and this feature will
become the primary low as it moves east. This low will drag a cold
front across SE TX next Sunday night.

Dew points will increase this week into the low/mid 60`s. The
current water temperature is around 60 so the warmer air moving
over the cooler water could produce some patchy sea fog. That
said, the long and persistent onshore flow will bring warmer water
toward the upper Texas coast. Not exactly a clear cut case for
dense sea as the waters warm. Stay alert as conditions are
somewhat favorable for sea fog this week. 43


College Station (CLL)      41  72  53  75  58 /   0   0   0  10   0
Houston (IAH)              45  71  56  73  59 /   0   0   0  10   0
Galveston (GLS)            56  66  60  69  62 /   0   0   0   0   0



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