Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 231159

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
559 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Cold front has pushed through the area so expect gusty northerly
winds to continue through 00Z this evening. Right now there is a
mix of IFR/MVFR ceilings mainly for the Houston terminals but
those are in the process of becoming more scattered. Ceilings
could still drop the next hour or two as a final rain band moves
through the majority of terminals from KUTS south to KLBX. This
band should clear the area by 15Z with more drying after that.
Dewpoints have already dropped at KCLL and look for this drier air
to move into over the next several hours. This will make it more
difficult for precipitation to reach the ground this morning.
Ceilings should continue to improve 15-18Z with mainly VFR
conditions after that for the afternoon. Winds should decouple
tonight with clear skies.



.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 404 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019/...

As of 3 AM, the cold front that pushed through the region tonight
was draped across the nearshore waters. Northerly winds behind the
front have been gusty, with sustained wind speeds between 10 to 20
mph and gusts near 25 mph, with higher gusts concentrated along
the immediate coast. Radar imagery shows stratiform rain
continuing to fall behind the leading line area wide. HRRR and the
TT WRF have performed well this morning with the progression of
the front, and show lingering showers persisting inland through
mid morning around 9 AM before pushing offshore. Have kept the
chance for showers and light snow in the forecast for the far
northern reaches of our forecast area, mainly in Houston, Madison,
Brazos, Burleson and Walker counties, with the best chance of
occurrence right around sunrise. Temperatures and moisture would
have to line up just right in order for this chance of wintry
precipitation. This time frame for such potential will be short
lived, as drier air quickly filters into the area robbing
moisture. No accumulation is expected at this time, and impacts
would be minimal with surface temperatures too warm.

High temperatures will be significantly colder today behind the
front, in the 40s area wide, approximately 20-30 degrees colder
than yesterday. The upper level trough axis swings through the
region this afternoon and high pressure will quickly build in.
Skies will clear from NW to SE throughout the day, with clear
skies overhead and potentially some lingering high clouds along
the coast by late this afternoon. Overnight low temperatures
tonight will dip into the 30s, but are expected to remain above
hard freeze criteria. High pressure will remain in control
Thursday and Friday, and onshore flow will be only temporary on
Thursday. Eventually, partly cloudy skies will return Friday

A weak cold front will slide through the area early Friday and
winds will turn back out of the northeast. Therefore, temperatures
will be a few degrees cooler Friday compared to Thursday, but
still in the 50s. High pressure builds back into the region, as
well as a coastal trough which skirts the upper Texas coast late
Saturday into Sunday. This will bring our next best chance for
precipitation, with global guidance in agreement with better
coverage situated west of I-45 and along the coast. Onshore flow
will return to start the week which will help to increase moisture
values slightly, with precipitable water values rising back up to
around 0.6 to 0.8 inches. Another cold front will push through
the region late Monday into Tuesday morning bringing with it
colder temperatures to start the week.

Cold front has pushed off the coast this morning. Gale Warning is in
effect until noon for the offshore waters and small craft advisory
for the bays. Winds and seas should decrease after that but will
have advisory level conditions going through the rest of the
afternoon. We will also keep the rip current statement going since
there will still be a southerly swell to mix with the northerly wind
waves that develop behind the front. The only other hazard to watch
is for low water in Galveston Bay this afternoon. Tides could push
about 1 foot below normal this afternoon. All marine hazards should
come to an end tonight into Thursday.

Thursday into Friday high pressure moves east and another front
slides off the coast allowing for NE winds. Winds quickly turn SE
Friday night into Saturday. A coastal trough may form off the lower
Texas coast Saturday night into Sunday which may increase easterly
winds over the upper Texas coast. Winds then become southerly ahead
of the next strong cold front expected to push off the coast next
Tuesday morning.




College Station (CLL)  46  33  58  34  55 /  20   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)          46  34  58  37  57 /  60   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)        48  42  53  47  56 /  90   0   0   0   0



TX...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for the following
     zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar
     Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the
     following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CST this evening
     for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
     to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
     High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning until noon CST today for the following zones:
     Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
     out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX
     out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel
     TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport
     TX from 20 to 60 NM.



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