Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 280837
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
337 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022

.SHORT TERM [Through Tomorrow Night]...

Say goodbye to triple digit heat (for at least a little while) and
hello to low to mid 90s high temperatures today and tomorrow. This
is thanks to the boundary that pushed through yesterday bringing
some cooler air down our way combined with cloud cover.  Overnight
low temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s for most of the
region tonight and tomorrow night with the immediate coast staying
in the upper 70s to near 80.

The aforementioned boundary has stalled offshore and will be
developing a weak low pressure system along it tonight into
Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
persist over the coastal waters through this morning with some of
the precipitation moving onshore during the afternoon and early
evening hours. The exact location of these storms will be driven
mainly by boundary collisions and other mesoscale processes, so
unfortunately will not be able to get to precise in the location of
the storms today. However, the best chance for the precipitation
will be along the immediate coast. Localized rainfall of up to 0.5"
will be possible where the storms set up.

An increase in the coastal showers and thunderstorms will occur
tonight into Wednesday morning as the low pressure system develops.
The majority of these storms will still stay offshore during the day
on Wednesday, but some isolated showers and thunderstorms could
stretch further inland Wednesday evening closer to the I-10
corridor. The system strengthens and move closer to the coast
overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning increasing the
precipitation chances across the coast. Rainfall totals during the
day on Wednesday will be around 0.25" to 0.5" for where the storms
develop. Then, rainfall amounts Wednesday night into Thursday
morning will be heavily dependent on how close the system gets to
the coast. Coastal counties, and especially the counties around
Matagorda Bay, may get up to an additional 0.5" inch of rain
Wednesday night. These are the areas where we have the worst drought
conditions currently, so this can be some very beneficial rainfall.
More on this developing system in the long term below.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...

Most deterministic global models agree that a broad and
disorganized surface low will be centered somewhere near the
Texas coast between our southwestern coastal waters and
Brownsville. I know, that`s a wide range, but that is typical with
surface troughs such as these since it`s evolution will really be
mesoscale driven and lots of uncertainty remains. Regardless, it
appears that most of its associated rainfall will be north and
east of the low. Therefore, rainfall totals for our area greatly
depend on where along the Texas coast this low pushes inland.
Further north, we get more rain, further south, we get less rain.
Once this weak low pushes inland on the TX coast on Thursday, it
will slowly push north through our CWA on Thursday and Friday,
and into Central Oklahoma by Saturday afternoon. This deep and
warm air mass will bring steady rain across the area with areas
south of I-10 reaching upwards of 3 inches of rain while areas
north of I-10 reaching upwards of 1-2 inches through Saturday.
Keep in mind, much can still change with the forecast as this
surface trough evolves, so check back frequently for updated
forecasts.

Saturday onwards, high pressure fills in behind this shortwave,
bringing back the typical pattern of isolated afternoon showers
and hot temperatures.

Lenninger

&&

.MARINE...

A broad and disorganized low will develop roughly 100 to 200
miles south of Galveston today and push towards the lower Texas
coast on Thursday. We can expect some unsettled weather until
Saturday for our offshore waters with frequent showers and storms
along with increasing winds and wave heights. Long period swells
could increase rip current risk for our beaches as well.

Lenninger

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      95  72  95  73  91 /  10  10  10   0  40
Houston (IAH)              95  77  93  75  88 /  20  20  30  20  50
Galveston (GLS)            91  81  89  81  88 /  30  50  50  40  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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