494
FXUS64 KHGX 031937
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
137 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances return tonight due to another coastal low and
  incoming cold front with the greatest coverage of the showers
  and isolated thunderstorms likely remaining along the coast.

- Additional passing disturbances will provide intermittent
  periods of rain behind the front Thursday and Friday.

- Drier weather anticipated this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1121 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Persistent cloud cover over Southeast Texas has resulted in
temperatures that are slightly cooler than what was originally
forecasted. Have brought MaxT down a few degrees for today after
coordination with surrounding offices.

For tonight, cloudy skies will continue and serve as an insulation
to keep temperatures warmer during the overnight hours. Lows will
dip into the mid 40s to low 50s north of the I-10 corridor and
into the mid 50s to low 60s south of I-10.

Onshore flow will continue overnight as a coastal trough makes its
way northward from the Lower Texas Coast. Moisture will continue
to funnel in and PWAT values will increase to 1.5" for most of the
area. 500mb impulses will move along the SW flow aloft and push
through Southeast Texas during the overnight hours. This, along
with strong isentropic ascent will result in scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms overnight into Thursday.

While dynamics at the surface level do not look all that
impressive with regard to severe weather potential, dynamics just
above the surface look a little more active. Effective bulk shear
values are around 50 kts with decent SRH and steepening lapse
rates. These dynamics would favor organized supercell development
with the potential for severe hail during the overnight hours. SPC
has the majority of the Upper Texas Coast included in a Marginal
Risk for severe weather along with the Houston Metro.

In addition to the severe weather potential, WPC has highlighted
the Coastal Plains and the Houston Metro in a Marginal Risk for
excessive rainfall through Thursday morning. Storms are likely to
train as WSW flow steers storms parallel to the coastal trough,
which could lead to localized flooding. HREF guidance has a
streak of 3-4" within the marginal risk area.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through Friday
morning and may linger into Friday afternoon as an upper level
disturbance moves overhead and interacts with lingering moisture
across the area.

Conditions become drier this weekend as another front pushes
through with high pressure following in its wake.

Rain and cloudy skies will keep temperatures on the cooler side
through Thursday and the reinforcing front will keep temperatures
cool on Friday. Highs will generally be in the upper 40s to 50s
inland and in the upper 50s to low 60s along the coast through the
end of the week.

WAA will bring temperatures back into the 60s through the weekend
ahead of the next cold front set to arrive sometime Sunday. With
limited time between the previous front, return of onshore flow,
and the late weekend front, it doesn`t look like there will be
much in the way of rainfall. Cool temperatures will return for a
short period early next week, before another warming trend near
the middle of the week.

Bailey

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 538 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

MVFR ceilings are beginning to fill in from the south. They`ll
likely remain in MVFR territory into the late afternoon. Then
we`ll see areas of rain, drizzle, fog expand across the area this
evening and overnight. There will probably be some embedded storms
as well. Could see some localized heavy downpours in the metro and
coastal areas in the 3-9z timeframe. Messy conditions with IFR
prevailing...and maybe LIFR at times well into Thurs. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1121 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Southeasterly winds will increase to around 15kt this Wednesday
afternoon. A coastal low is expected to develop late tonight into
Thursday bringing not only widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms, but also moderate to strong northeasterly winds on
the north side of the system. Small Craft Advisories may be needed
as early as Thursday morning with northeasterly winds increasing
to 15-25kt, and seas climbing to 4-6ft. The system will push to
the east late Thursday into Friday leading to a lowering of the
winds, but lingering moisture will lead to scattered shower
activity through Saturday morning. Patchy fog will also be
possible as the high moisture and lowering winds overlap.

Light to occasionally moderate northeasterly winds will then
persist through the weekend.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  53  48  49  42 /  20  80  60  20
Houston (IAH)  55  51  53  46 /  20  90  80  40
Galveston (GLS)  66  59  61  51 /  30  90  90  70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late tonight for
     GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bailey
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Bailey