Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
397 FXUS64 KHGX 191126 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 526 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Fog, some dense, will gradually burn off toward mid morning. - Near record warmth will continue areawide for the next few days. - Rain chances increase late Thursday and Friday as the next weather system approaches from the west and drags a weak frontal boundary into the region. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1201 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 Areas of fog could make for a slower than normal morning commute. It should gradually burn off toward mid morning. With some higher PW`s transitioning inland today, some of us may see some isolated to maybe scattered showers around - albeit mostly insignificant in regards to amounts and overall duration. Otherwise, a warm start to the day will lead to some more record highs being threatened this afternoon (CLL-86, IAH-85, HOU-84, GLS-81, PSX-82). Somewhat similar set up for tonight into Thurs, though fog coverage isn`t anticipated to be quite as widespread or vsby as low. Upper low seen on water vapor imagery near SoCal will weaken and kick out into the Plains Thurs night & Fri. Would anticipate some increasing shra/tstm coverage Thursday afternoon from the Big Bend area into Oklahoma as daytime heating, surface trof/front, and larger scale lift work their magic. They`ll probably begin approaching the I-35 corridor late in the day and eventually into our neck of the woods Thursday night. Best overall dynamics should be situated to our north...and with the precip moving into a somewhat more stable environment as we lose heating, I`d expect overall intensity to be waning with time. We will still need to keep an eye out on things should things decide to accelerate, but overall severe risk looks fairly low to me given the current model consensus. This systems associated frontal boundary will sag closer to the coast on Friday and could serve as a weak focus for some additional shra/tstm activity in advance during the day. The front will be losing its southward momentum with time and it remains to be seen if it clears the coast or not before eventually stalling & washing out. Another western mid-upper trof will sink southward into Baja Saturday then begin its eastward journey toward and into Texas on Monday. This system looks to be deeper, and should provide better chances of storms to the region Mon afternoon-Tue morning. 47 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 526 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 Flight conditions degraded again this morning, but actually rather a muddled mix rather than the widespread dense fog anticipated. It is still mostly LIFR to IFR mixed between fog and low clouds, but also a bit of MVFR here and there and even some VFR! As a result, the next couple of hours will be frustrating as most sites can probably be expected to bounce around a lot as the sun rises. This TAF attempts to bracket best and worst case expectations, but may still need to be amended to keep up with reality. Conditions should improve through the morning, but likely at a slower pace than past days with moisture pooling over the area, keeping fog and stratus in place a bit longer. Eventually, though, we should crack back to VFR area-wide with S-SE winds up around 10 knots at peak this afternoon. Anticipating isolated -SHRA with all this moisture, but chances not high enough for any explicit mentions save a PROB30 at CLL. If it happens elsewhere, it should be extremely brief and light. Tonight, as winds make their way back down to around 5 kts or less for the night, we`ll see conditions degrade again with this mix of stratus and fog. Starting with low MVFR-IFR for now, but potential for LIFR again at the most significantly impacted terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 1201 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 Areas of inland fog may bleed into portions of Galveston Bay and the northern Houston Ship Channel overnight causing reduced visibility. Fog should burn off toward mid morning. Areas of fog look to be possible again Wednesday night, though not as prevalent as tonight. Otherwise, light to moderate onshore flow should continue through Thursday night with Gulf seas of 2 to 4 feet. A very weak frontal boundary will sag close to the coast late Friday night or Saturday morning then wash out. Onshore winds quickly resume late in the day Saturday then increase Sunday. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 84 70 83 66 / 20 20 40 70 Houston (IAH) 85 69 84 69 / 30 10 20 40 Galveston (GLS) 80 72 80 72 / 30 10 30 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...47 AVIATION...Luchs MARINE...47