Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
441 FXUS64 KHGX 221859 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1259 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Brief dry period tonight through early Sunday afternoon. Rain chances return afterwards as a warm front lifts north. - Another system is expected to bring showers and thunderstorms on Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Isolated stronger storms and locally heavy rains will be possible. - Next front passes through Tuesday night bringing a return to seasonable temps for Thanksgiving. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1240 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 The weak surface cold front is currently in the process of moving into the Gulf waters, where it will likely stall out. Light showers remain possible in the vicinity of the boundary with overall cooler and drier conditions north of it. It`ll still fairly warm though with highs reaching the 70s/lower 80s this afternoon. We`ll feel a more significant temperature drop overnight with early morning lows on Sunday ranging from the upper 40s to lower 60s. Ridging will briefly be in place aloft on Sunday. At the surface, the stalled boundary over the Gulf waters should lift north as a warm front throughout the day. Highs should still be 1-4 degrees cooler, though still in the 70s/lower 80s. Overnight temperatures should see a more noticeable rise with the influx of moisture with early morning lows forecasted in the mid 50s to upper 60s. More active weather arrives on Monday as an upper level trough is expected to fill through the Plains. PWs should climb to 1.3" and peak at upwards of 1.9", giving plenty of moisture for scattered showers and storms leading up to a cold front. SE Texas remains on the peripheral of the front-right entrance to an upper level jet streak associated with the aforementioned trough. Though as mentioned before, SE Texas does remain relatively distant from this feature with the main axis of deeper PVA/omega still much further north in models. Though given the deeper moisture and added support from a 25- 40 knot LLJ, there is still potential for some isolated higher rainfall totals, especially on the northern end of our CWA. Bulk shear ranges from 40-55 knots, though instability is still lacking. Rainfall totals for Monday have trended downward slightly, forecasted between 0.5-1.25 inches on Monday, though higher amounts up to 3 inches cannot be ruled out either. WPC has the northern tip of SE Texas under a Slight (level 2/4) Risk of Excessive Rainfall for Monday with a Marginal (level 1/4) extending through the rest of the area. Dry soils will help mitigate the risk of flash flooding, though it won`t stop it entirely if this rain quickly falls over a short period or if storms repeatedly pass over the same area. Ponding on roadways and minor street flooding will be possible, though its typically isolated in circumstances such as this, if it even happens at all. We could see a few strong storms as well with SPC placing most areas north of US-59 under a Marginal (level 1/5) Risk for Severe Weather. The heavy rainfall threat tapers off into Tuesday with the upper level trough moving further away to the NE. The cold front associated with this system is anticipated to slow/briefly stall over SE Texas on Tuesday. It`s possible we`ll see some additional destabilization south of the front due to afternoon heating and drier air filling in aloft. Global models are still showing bulk shear of 35-45 knots, though largely due to speed shear rather than directional shear. An upper level low moving through the Northern Plains should reinforce the slowed/stalled front, pushing it off the coast by around Wednesday morning. Depending on how some of the timing plays out, we could see a few stronger storms along the FROPA. Cooler and much more seasonable weather is still slated for Thanksgiving. Heading into Friday, we`ll see onshore flow return and temperatures rise once again. 03 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 529 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 A mix of LIFR-MVFR vis and/or cigs currently over all sites except CLL/UTS/GLS. The weak cold front is near IAH and will lead to SHRA/TSRA for sites at and south of IAH this morning and will dissipate around 18Z, although some iso storms could still linger near the coastal sites. Light N-NW winds currently over CLL/UTS/CXO, while the rest of the sites have light S-SW winds, but will gradually become N-NW as the front sags further southward today. Most sites should have N-NW winds by the 00Z timeframe. Cotto && .MARINE... Issued at 1240 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 A weak front is expected to stall over the Gulf waters this afternoon, resulting in northeast/easterly winds over the area. Wind shift east to southeasterly on Sunday as the remnants of the stalled boundary lift north as a warm front. Rain chances return late Sunday, rising into Monday as the next disturbance passes north of the area. Caution flags may be needed during this period as onshore flow strengthens. Rain chances linger into Tuesday as the next cold front slows and stalls over SE Texas. A stronger reinforcing front will help push the cold front off the coast by Wednesday morning with moderate to strong northerly winds in its wake. Small Craft Advisories may be warranted on Wednesday behind the front. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 50 75 62 80 / 0 0 20 80 Houston (IAH) 56 77 63 83 / 0 0 10 60 Galveston (GLS) 64 75 69 79 / 0 0 10 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...03 AVIATION...Cotto MARINE...03