Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
262 FXUS64 KHGX 200640 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1240 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Near record warmth again today for metro and coastal locations. - Some storms in/near the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods tonight. - Another system is expected to enhance shower and thunderstorm activity Monday into Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1240 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 Any patchy fog will burn off by mid morning, followed by another warm and humid day. Record highs for the metro and coastal areas will be threatened (84 @ IAH/HOU, 82 @ GLS, 85 @ PSX). Cannot rule out some isolated streamer showers during the day, but should be insignificant. Shower/tstm activity stretching from West Texas into Oklahoma should be making eastward progress today in association with larger scale lift in advance of the weakening, negatively tilted trof that`ll be pivoting from the Panhandle region into the Plains. This precip should approach the Brazos Valley this evening and eventually into the Piney woods overnight. Overall instability in our area isn`t much to write home about, and considering the loss of heating, should be waning through the night. May still need to keep any eye out for any embedded stronger rogue cells...a bit moreso if they decide to come in earlier than currently anticipated. Locations south of about Columbus-Livingston may have to wait until Friday-Saturday to see subtle increases in scattered shra/tstm chances. This is when the trof`s associated surface front/wind shift will slowly sag southward...eventually stalling out somewhere near the I-10 corridor late Friday and Saturday. The stalled front will washout on Sunday and southerly winds resume areawide with falling pressures to our west. The next western trof will make its way into the Plains early next week and appears to bring better rain chances across the region Monday into early Tuesday. Its front, and possibly secondary push of cooler midweek air, should hopefully bring back readings closer to seasonable norms going into the second part of next week. 47 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 543 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 VFR conditions and southeasterly to southerly winds will prevail through the evening hours. Expecting another round of decreased visibilities and cloud ceilings overnight with conditions varying between LIFR to MVFR areawide. The window the best potential for LIFR conditions looks to be between 09Z-14Z. Conditions will gradually improve through Thursday morning with improvement to MVFR for a few hours before VFR conditions return by 18Z. Also around 18Z is when southerly winds are expected to become gusty with sustained winds around 8-12 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt through the afternoon. Some sporadic rain showers will be possible Thursday as well, but confidence on the exact timing and location is on the low side at this time. Through the afternoon, the best potential will be east of I-45. The greater confidence on rain comes near or just after the current period of this TAF package as a frontal boundary pushes into the region late Thursday night into Friday morning. Expect another round of decreased ceilings and visibilities going into Thursday night as well. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 1240 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 Light to moderate onshore flow should continue for the next several days with Gulf seas of 2 to 4 feet. Isolated to widely scattered showers are possible today. A weak front will move into Southeast Texas Thursday night...but is expected to stall inland Friday into Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorm chances are possible closer to the boundary. Late night and early morning fog inland may also bleed into the northern bays at times. Better chances of that occurring should be Friday night. Otherwise, southerly winds will increase Sunday as the stalled front dissipates. The next weather system will move into the area Monday night into Tuesday afternoon. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 85 68 82 63 / 30 60 60 30 Houston (IAH) 83 69 85 68 / 30 20 50 40 Galveston (GLS) 79 72 80 71 / 40 10 20 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...47 AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...47