Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
213 FXUS64 KHGX 151118 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 518 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm conditions will prevail for the next week. - Periods of late night and early morning fog possible on a daily basis. - Low chances of rain re-enter the forecast early next week, followed by some better chances during the second half of the work week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1046 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 Ridging aloft will continue to bring warm and mostly benign conditions over the weekend into next week. Temperatures will be very warm for this time of the year with highs in the upper 70s/80s and lows generally in the 60s/lower 70s. These temperatures are approximately 10-20 degrees above normal, exceptionally warm for mid- November. While a few disturbances passing to the north may weaken the ridge early next week, the effects on SE Texas appear negligible as rain chances remain low during this period. Cannot completely rule out an isolated shower or two during the afternoon hours, but again this is less likely. Still, ample moisture with light winds & most clear skies will provide favorable conditions for fog during the nighttime/early morning hours. This fog will be diurnally driven, mostly patchy with a few dense patches possible in spots, especially at fog-prone locations like KCXO and KLBX. A few dense patches could impact morning commutes, so plan accordingly. The second half of the work week should be a tad more active due to an upper level low, which is currently anticipated to swing across the Desert southwest on Wednesday. Several weaker shortwaves & PVA impulses out ahead of this trough will supply lift necessary for a scattered showers and storms on Wednesday, starting in the morning but mostly picking up by the afternoon hours. Rain chances continue to creep upwards into Thursday as the front approaches SE Texas. Timing for this FROPA is showing better agreement between models, though still around Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are likely along the front with cooler weather in it`s wake. The GFS showed the trough taking on a negative tilt prior to the front`s arrival with around 30-50 knots of bulk shear in place over the area. SFC CAPE is on the lower end at around 1000-1500 J/KG, though the GFS also depicts a corridor of +200m2s2 3km SRH to the northeast & covering portions Piney Woods Area. Much of these details may likely change over the next few days, though the broader picture currently suggest the potential for a few stronger, potentially severe storms with this upcoming FROPA. Long range ensembles broadly indicate declining temperatures through the end of November, especially around Thanksgiving. Still, we`re likely to see another SE wind shift some time after this upcoming front, leading to another stretch of generally above-normal temps as we approach Thanksgiving (per the Climate Prediction Center`s 8-14 Day Outlook). 03 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 518 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Patchy fog, particularly in the usual trouble spots (hey there, CXO and LBX) will hold through an hour or two after sunrise, then VFR area-wide with southerly winds increasing to around 10 knots. May get some occasional gusts into the higher teens as well, all before the sun sets and we begin this persistent pattern anew. && .MARINE... Issued at 1046 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow can be expected over the weekend. Patchy fog inland may spill into portions of the northern bays & upper ship channel during the late night and early morning hours each day. Chances of this occuring appear most favorable on Sunday and Monday. Rain chances will be slim through Tuesday, but should increased with scattered showers/storms returning on Wednesday ahead of the next disturbance. Caution flags and Advisories may be needed by this point with a cold front slated to push through the area some time Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Stronger winds & higher seas may also bring a high risk of rip currents ahead of the cold front. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 84 62 86 65 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 85 64 86 66 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 78 69 79 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...03 AVIATION...Luchs MARINE...03