761
FXUS64 KHGX 011844
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
144 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue into
  the evening then push offshore. There could be a few strong to
  severe cells around (mainly Matagorda Bay region and offshore).

- Drier air filters back into the region Sunday. RH`s will trend
  back lower, but some recent rain and light winds should mitigate
  overall spreading threat some. Obey local burn bans.

- Dry/pleasant weather is anticipated most of next week with cool
  overnight lows and warm daytime highs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Potent shortwave digging through West Texas will take a more SE
then E, track as is approaches the Coastal Bend region later this
evening and tonight. This, along with a favorable jet position,
surface frontal boundary and some ample moisture availability will
provide a window for some scattered storms to develop across parts
of the region heading into the late afternoon thru late evening
time period. The Matagorda Bay region and offshore Gulf waters
should be situated in the more favorable spots forcing-wise.
Primary storm threat should be hail considering a lobe of colder
mid-upper air that`ll be moving overhead. Storms should transition
into the Gulf by late evening and overnight...followed by some
drier air filtering into the region in the fronts wake.

Fair/comfortable wx is expected for much of the upcoming week as
mid-upper ridging builds into the region early in the week.
Despite the ridge weakening/flattening beyond Wed and a light
onshore flow in place, the low level moisture return isn`t
impressive. With some subsidence prevailing aloft, we`ll leave
mentionable POPs out of the forecast. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the period with
increasing mid and high level clouds through this afternoon ahead
of an approaching cold front. This front will bring scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms, with the greatest chances of
the thunderstorms being near the immediate coast. In the TAFs,
terminals north of I-10 have PROB30s for -SHRA, and then PROB30s
for TS in terminals south of I-10. There is a chance that future
TAF updates keeps the mention of TS to just GLS/LBX.

Light and variable winds are expected through the mid morning
hours, gradually becoming easterly then northeasterly through this
evening as the front slides through. Winds will generally be
8-12kt, but will be higher at GLS overnight tonight with gusts to
20-25kt possible.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

With the combination of an incoming cold front and upper level
disturbance, look for an increase in shower and thunderstorm
activity as the afternoon and evening progresses. A few of the
storms could become strong, moreso in the Matagorda Bay area and
also in the Gulf Waters. Hail appears to be the primary threat
with any storms. Northeast winds will steadily increase this
evening and overnight and Small Craft Advisories are in effect
through Sunday morning. Winds and seas will begin diminishing
Sunday afternoon. Light onshore winds resume Monday and should
prevail for a good part of next week. 47

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will come to an end
this evening as a front passes south of the region. A
drier airmass filters back in behind the front, which should
persist into early next week. Daytime minimum RH values are
expected to be mostly be in the 30-40% territory, but wind speeds
look to be only slightly elevated on Sunday, with calmer
conditions beyond that. Continue to exercise caution and obey all
local burn bans. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  46  70  45  74 /  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  51  72  48  74 /  20   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  61  72  61  71 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to noon CDT Sunday
     for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...47