249
FXUS64 KHUN 031701
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1101 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 917 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

 - Gusty southeasterly winds 20-25 mph expected through tonight.

 - High chances for showers begin tonight with a low chance for
   strong to severe thunderstorms.

 - Widespread 1-2 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts
   up to 4 inches is expected which may result in flash flooding.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 917 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

A mild start to the day across the Tennessee Valley with 15z
temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Satellite imagery
shows an northward expanding cloud deck across central AL that
should overspread the local forecast area later today. So enjoy
the peeks of sunshine through the clouds this morning before it
goes away. Main concern during the daytime is gusty SE winds up to
20-25 mph in response to a tightening pressure gradient due to
the low pressure system over the Plains.

By this evening, a cold front to the south of the aformentioned
low pressure system will swing through AL bringing high chances
for showers and low chances for strong to severe thunderstorms.
Strong moisture advection ahead of the front should initiate a few
showers this evening (around 00z), primarily along and west of
I-65. The main line of storms associated with the front is
forecast to arrive into NW AL around midnight tonight and slowly
move across the forecast area through the early morning hours. The
main concern is locally heavy rainfall that could result in flash
flooding. PWs rise between 1.5-1.75 inches and combined with the
slow propagation speeds, rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches is most
likely with higher amounts up to 4 inches where deeper convection
develops. As a result, areas in NW AL have been placed in a Slight
Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall leading to flash
flooding.

As for the severe threat, there is an overall low risk with the
greatest concern across portions of NW AL. The line of storms is
expected to weaken a bit as it moves in from N MS. While shear
profiles especially in the low levels would be favorable for
severe storms and perhaps a few tornadoes, instability is weak and
vertical profiles show tall skinny CAPE. Given the time of year,
we cannot fully rule out a few strong to severe storms, but the
overall risk appears quite low.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday Night)
Issued at 917 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

The line of showers and storms will continue to meander its way
slowly eastward across our local forecast area on Wednesday. Rain
chances end from west to east with portions of NW AL clearing out
around lunchtime and portions of NE AL finally drying out by
Wednesday evening. A cooler and drier airmass move in behind the
cold front bringing a nice dry day on Thursday with afternoon
highs warming into the lower 70s. Another shortwave is forecast to
push through the area late Thursday bringing low chances for
light showers to the area. However, there is some uncertainty in
how much moisture will be present with this wave, but for now kept
the low chance PoPs in our latest forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 938 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

We will end the work week with the passage of an upper wave early
Friday morning, with some uncertainty as to how much moisture
advection will happen ahead of this system. The GFS is a bit more
aggressive with moisture and would result in some light rain
during the early hours on Friday, while the ECMWF is drier and
would likely only result in increasing clouds. For this reason we
will stick with blended guidance capping PoPs near 20%, and any
rainfall that does occur should begin clearing by late Friday
morning. Dry weather will follow as high pressure spreads
southward from the Midwest in the wake of a cold front. High temps
will drop to the upper 60s/lower 70s behind this front with
northwesterly winds bringing in cooler and drier air. We should
also see clouds thinning through the morning hours on Friday
resulting in pleasant fall conditions by Friday afternoon.

Overall the weekend looks nice as zonal flow persists aloft. High
temps will reach the low to mid 60s each day with overnight lows
in the 30s to lower 40s. In fact, we will likely see our first
frost of the season in some locations, especially those north of
the TN River and in the higher terrain where current forecast
temperatures drop to 32 degrees. This will be a trend to watch
over the coming days, but there are still fairly significant
differences regarding the upper and mid level patterns in long
term guidance. Models do agree that by early next week upper flow
will shift to the north as a stronger trough axis shifts east over
the area, reinforcing high pressure and keeping dry, near
seasonable conditions over the TN Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1101 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

MVFR cloud deck continues to spread northward this afternoon
overspreading the terminals. SE winds gusting 20-25 knots will
likely continue through tomorrow morning. Low chances of showers
will begin to develop near 00z with more widespread showers
arriving after 06z moving in from west to east. Thunderstorm
chances are a bit uncertain, therefore left those chances within a
prob 30 group.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...GH