036
FXUS64 KHUN 130924
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
324 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

...New NEAR TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 323 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

 - Temperatures will warm each day into the weekend with highs
   returning to the 70s on Friday.

 - Low to medium rain chances return early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 323 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Mostly clear and calm conditions are prevailing early this
morning across the Tennessee Valley. Good radiational cooling has
allowed temperatures to drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s as
of 09z. Some patchy fog development is forecast to occur early
this morning, especially along areas rivers and lakes -- and there
is already some evidence of this occurring on satellite data.
Will have to monitor the observational data closely over the next
2-3 hours to see how widespread this fog gets. After sunrise, fog
will dissipate and a mostly clear/sunny sky will prevail with high
pressure in control. Ample sunshine and a light southerly flow
will help temperatures warm into the upper 60s in most locations,
with a few spots reaching or just exceeding the 70 degree mark.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 1044 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

The upper ridge will continue to build to our west into the
weekend and sfc high pressure to our south will continue to
support dry and warm weather. Temperatures will top out in the 70s
both Friday and Saturday with lows in the upper 40s to 50s each
night. We should see plenty of sunshine each day as well as we
remain in a relatively dry airmass. Southwest winds will become
breezy at times on Saturday as gradient flow intensifies ahead of
an upper disturbance progged to track through the Great Lakes
region late this weekend. We will remain below Wind Advisory
criteria, but gusts could reach up to 20-25mph at times.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1044 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Latest extended range guidance suggests that a deep mid/upper-
level trough will extend from eastern Canada into the northeastern
CONUS on Sunday/Sunday night, with northwest flow aloft of 40-50
knots in place across the local forecast area. At the surface, the
southwestern portion of a cold front (attached to a deepening low
off the coast of New England) will advance southeastward through
the region, perhaps bringing a period of low clouds and some
pockets of light rain late Sunday morning, followed by a wind
shift to the north during the afternoon, with highs in the
u60s-l70s. There is considerably uncertainty regarding how far
south a drier continental airmass will penetrate into the TN
Valley Sunday afternoon/evening before the front begins returns
northward, making the overnight low temp forecast in the m-u 40s
quite uncertain.

Beginning Monday (and continuing through Wednesday), a
strengthening subtropical ridge will build northward from central
America and should become centered across the southern Gulf by the
end of the period, downstream from a slow-moving but amplified
trough digging across the southwestern CONUS. Along the northern
rim of the expanding 500-mb ridge, an initially compact shortwave
trough will track across the central Plains on Monday but should
weaken and accelerate eastward as it enters increasingly confluent
flow between the trough to our northeast and ridge to our south
on Monday night/Tuesday.

In light of this, it is not surprising that the global models
offer a wide variety of solutions regarding both the path and
speed of a weak surface low related to this disturbance and at
what point (if at all) a weak cold front attached to it will cross
the region. For this reason we will retain low-medium (20-40%)
POPs in the forecast from Monday night-Tuesday night, which
represents the potential time range for frontal passage. With
surface dewpoints in the lower 60s supporting at least weak
instability/CAPE, both showers and thunderstorms will be possible
should the front eventually make it into our region. Both deep-
layer and low-level shear will also be marginally conducive for
storm organization (with mid-level westerly flow of 35-45 knots
and a WSW low-level of 20-30 knots), and we will continue to
monitor this system for at least a minor risk of severe
thunderstorms. In the event that the front does indeed push
through the region, a brief intrusion of slightly drier/cooler
continental air can be expected on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

The combination of northwest flow aloft and a surface ridge
encompassing much of the southeastern CONUS will sustain dry
conditions at the HSV/MSL terminals this forecast period. However,
a notable increase in the coverage of high-lvl Ci is anticipated
throughout the day. With calm winds and contracting dewpoint
depressions currently observed at regional ASOS/AWOS sites,
conditions appear favorable for the development of BR/FG during
the early morning hours, with MVFR vsby reductions expected at the
terminals from 8-14Z and a period of LIFR conds possible in
locally dense fog btwn 9-13Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1044 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Moderate Risk for Much Above Normal Precipitation:

The Climate Prediction Center has included much of north Alabama
and southern middle Tennessee in a Moderate Risk for Much Above
Normal Precipitation for November 20th. Precipitation exceeding
1-2 inches is possible during this period.

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70