830
FXUS64 KHUN 181827
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
127 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

High pressure continues to remain in control across the TN Valley
this afternoon. Strong subsidence from this ridge will suppress
rain chances overnight. Temperatures should drop into the mid-70s,
with scattered to broken decks of mid/high clouds passing
overhead. Winds become light and variable (less than 5 mph)
across the entire area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

The upper-level ridge continues to build in through the end of the
work week. Models show the ridge axis building in from the
southwest. This, along with a weak low pressure system from the
east coast, helps to promote convergence aloft and subsidence at
the surface. CAPE values less than 1000 J/kg and a strong capping
inversion will continue to suppress convection during the week.
Rain chances remain very low through Friday as slightly drier air
is advected in from the east. Highs gradually increase as the
week progresses (into the mid to upper 90s). Lows at night drop
into the low to the mid 70s at night. Winds become lighter through
out the week with the building high. Excessive heat may begin to
become an issue by Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Monday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A broad upper ridge axis is expected to be draped over the SE region
into the southern Atlantic Basin going into the end of the work week.
The subtropical high is also expected to be stretching westward into
much of the region, essentially deflecting any convection to the
north/south of the central TN Valley. This likewise should maintain
dry conditions into the upcoming weekend period. The presence of the
upper ridge pattern will also translate into seasonably hot temps for
the latter half of the forecast period. Afternoon highs look to climb
into the lower/mid 90s Fri, before temps rebound more into the mid to
perhaps upper 90s Sat/Sun. Dew pts though look to be suppressed to
the upper 60s/near 70F. This may at least keep max heat indices this
weekend around 98-102F. Nevertheless, those with outdoor activities
should exercise caution and stay hydrated. The upper ridge does look
to eventually weaken near the end of the period, as a weak frontal
boundary approaches from the north. This looks to bring low-medium
chances for showers/tstms (20-50%) back into the forecast late Sun
into Mon. This may also result in afternoon highs Mon more in the
lower/mid 90s. Overnight lows through early Mon look to fall mainly
into the mid 70s/near 70F for most spots.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 11:55 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Gusty southeast winds will continue throughout the afternoon
until weakening after sunset. A scattered cumulus cloud deck
around 5000 feet is expected to form and dissipate after sunset,
leaving clear skies and VFR conditions through the end of the
period.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Serre
SHORT TERM....Serre
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...SPG