469
FXUS64 KHUN 180224
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
924 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight and Wednesday)
Issued at 924 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Surface SW flow will continue to support some moderate rain for
the next few hours. The prolonged SW flow pattern has allowed
PWATS of near 2" to infiltrate the area over the last several
days. This paired with surface heating has allowed for showers and
storms to develop through the afternoon and linger through the
evening. The high PWATS are contributing to very efficient
rainfall production with torrential rain possible with any and all
storms. Currently, the heaviest rainfall is located in NW AL with
a Flash Flood Warning in effect for portions of Colbert and
Lauderdale counties through 11:15 PM. Please use caution while
drive and do not drive through any flooded road ways.

Rain and storm chances will greatly decrease after midnight,
however overcast conditions are likely through the remainder of
the night. Wednesday will offer a similar outlook as today with SW
flow still dominating. Daytime heating will again support
scattered afternoon thunderstorms however a lack of shear will
dissuade the chances for widespread severe storms. With that being
said, a few thousand J/KG of CAPE will likely be present and
support a few strong to marginally severe storms with gusty winds
and torrential rainfall being the main threats.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday)
Issued at 924 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Wednesday night and Thursday will continue to be influenced by SW
flow reinforcing our moist airmass. Through the day on Thursday,
mid level troughing will begin to push into the NE CONUS, dragging
an associated cold front through the TN Valley. This front will
act as a forcing mechanism and support much higher rain chances
Thursday afternoon as the front moves through. While we will
likely have significant CAPE again, models are rather pessimistic
in our shear profile. Thus, a widespread severe threat is not
anticipated at this time, rather a few strong to severe storms
with damaging winds will be the main severe threat. Heavy rainfall
will also be possible with any storms on Thursday. Given the high
PWATS in place, storms will be capable of producing very high
rainfall rates which could lead to flash flooding, especially if
storms train over the same area.

Storms will wane in coverage and intensity as the cold front
continues SE and daytime heating is lost after sunset. Dry weather
will quickly build in behind the front as ridging nudges in at
the midlevels mirrored by high pressure developing at the surface.
This will allow temperatures to easily climb into the high 80s on
Friday. With SW flow again present around surface high pressure,
dew points will remain in the 70s supporting heat index values in
the mid to high 90s. These hot and humid conditions will mark a
stark transitions between the rainy start to the week and a very
warm and moist end to the week. Without a few days to ease us into
this transition, it will be important to quickly adapt to routine
summer heat and sunshine safety practices including wearing
sunscreen, having proper hydration, and ensuring proper cooling
abilities for anyone partaking in outdoor activities.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 924 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

High pressure will dominate the long term, unfortunately bringing
very hot and humid conditions with it each day. SW flow around
surface high pressure will retain high dewpoints in the 70s. This
paired with temperatures in the low to mid 90s each day will push
our apparent temperatures near and just over 100 degrees. While
currently the forecast has us remaining just below heat advisory
criteria, we will be watching trends in the long term to gauge the
threat as it looms closer.

Outside of heat, SW flow will support a low chance of scattered
afternoon thunderstorms each afternoon. Chances will be best south
of the TN River (10-30%), yet storm coverage and severe chances
will both remain low due to the lack of any significant forcing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Scattered VCTS will continue through the evening, transitioning to
VCSH around 6Z. Just after 6Z, a low MVFR to IFR cloud deck looks
to move into both terminals and remain through a majority of the
night through daybreak. The low cloud deck will slowly dissipate
during the morning hours with VFR conditions returning just after
18Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...RAD