818
FXUS64 KHUN 121909
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
109 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

...New NEAR TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 944 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

 - Warming temperatures through late week and into the weekend.

 - Low to Medium chances for showers and thunderstorms return next
   week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 108 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

At 19Z, high pressure was sitting over the northeast Gulf of
America with westerly flow now advecting warmer and more moist
air/higher dew points into the deep South, mainly just south of
the TN Valley. A weak trough axis at the surface was moving
southeast through MO with a weak ridge following behind. The
trough basically becomes ill-defined tonight with the ridge
becoming more merged with the high over the Gulf. This results in
light or calm flow tonight in the TN Valley and a providing a
decent set up for patchy to areas of fog to develop tonight. For
now, not expecting widespread dense fog, but this will be
something to watch. Overnight low temperatures will dip into the
upper 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday Night)
Issued at 944 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Dry weather continues heading through the end of the work week. An
850mb ridge begins to amplify across the Southeast along the
western edge of the sfc high pressure centered near FL. In
response to the ridge, sfc flow becomes more southerly to
southwesterly resulting in a continued warming trend through
Friday. Expect afternoon highs to be in the upper 60s on Thursday
and back into the lower 70s on Friday. This flow pattern will also
advect in better moisture off the Gulf with dewpoints rising into
the 50s on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 912 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

This weekend will start out with a busy upper level pattern.
There`s a trough off the southern part of the West Coast, another
one up in south central Canada and a third trough still anchored
in far Northeast U.S/eastern Quebec, with a ridge underneath it
all.

High pressure will keep us dry and warm on Saturday with breezy
southwesterly winds and partly cloudy skies pushing daytime highs
to unseasonably warm values in the low to mid 70s. On Sunday, the
trough in south central Canada will overcome the ridge and try to
phase in with the stubborn trough near Quebec. Its associated sfc
low in the Great Lakes will have a trailing cold front through the
OH Valley, the Mid MS Valley and into the Southern Plains. Right
now, looks like low chances of precip return Sunday night with
low/medium chances on Monday and Tuesday as the cold front gets
hung up on the OH Valley to Mid MS Valley. The question is on
exactly where that front will get held up which will affect our
precip chances. One feature that will effect the front`s location
is the now cut off low that lifts out of the Four Corners and into
the Plains on Monday. After that, there is a lot of model
disagreement on location, intensity and timing so have low
confidence for Tuesday. Regardless, looks like temps will be in
the upper 60s early next week with low/medium chances for precip,
but stay tuned for additional forecast updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1109 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

VFR conditions forecast to continue through the TAF period. Winds
gusts 15-20 knots this afternoon will subside this evening. There
is a low chance for some visibility reductions near sunrise
tomorrow do to fog, but for now left out of forecast due to
uncertainty in how widespread fog will be.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 455 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Moderate Risk for Much Above Normal Precipitation:

The Climate Prediction Center has included much of north Alabama
and southern middle Tennessee in a Moderate Risk for Much Above
Normal Precipitation for November 19-20th. Precipitation exceeding
1-2 inches is possible during this period.

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...GH