518
FXUS64 KHUN 191753
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1153 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1112 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

 - Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast Thursday into
   early Saturday, with the highest rain chances Friday night.

 - Unsettled conditions are forecast for the start of the new week
   with lower end chances of showers.

 - Chances of storms (some strong) are possible next Monday into
   Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1112 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

A weak system that brought light showers to parts of the
Tennessee Valley last night has moved east of the area and have
weakened further. Although this system has departed, a deep
southerly flow has brought extensive lower level moisture across
much of the southern and central CONUS, which has resulted in
mostly Marginal Visual Flight Rules MVFR cloud bases (1000-3000ft
AGL) areawide. A few spots had Instrument Flight Rules IFR, lower
ceilings of 500-1000 ft AGL.

New model data and observations show that the lower clouds were
generally thin (~few hundred feet thick - vertical). Thus heating
and subsequent mixing should result in the cloud bases either
rising higher and/or mixing out some this afternoon. Despite these
clouds, air temperatures around the area were unseasonably warm,
with readings ranging from the mid 60s to around 70. Standing
record high temperatures today are Huntsville, 81/1942 and Muscle
Shoals 84/1930. With the clouds in place, do not think new records
will be set today.

Depending upon how much the cloud cover clears today, greater
amounts of residual surface moisture, plus long November nights
and a continued moist feed from the south, could make fog
development overnight an issue. The LAMP MOS guidance does was not
forecasting fog, but the NAM and to a lesser extent the GFS was.
Given the amount of clouds already present and expected tonight,
fog that forms is not expected to become dense at this time.
Another mild night is expected, with low temperatures in the 50s
(lower 50s east to upper 50s west).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 1112 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Another system forming over the Desert SW will head eastward, and
bring another period of showers to the Tennessee Valley. The NBM
appears to be bringing showers too quickly earlier tomorrow, but
can see medium rain chances Thursday night, and medium to high
chances Friday/Friday night. A few embedded thunderstorms will be
possible as this system traverses the southern CONUS on Thursday,
and again Friday/Friday night. Rainfall totals into late Friday of
only 1/4", maybe 1/2" is better than no rain and will help some
with the recent dry spell. Although the showers coverage
diminishes from west to east Fri night, they will not go away
entirely. Have stayed with the NBM view of lower end PoPs
continuing through Saturday. Despite more clouds than sun and
continuing rain chances, unseasonably mild to warm conditions
will continue. Daily high temperatures should range in the 60s to
lower 70s, with lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 954 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

During the later part of the weekend, sfc high pressure will contribute
to mostly dry conditions over the Tennessee Valley. Zonal flow will
begin to shift by the early work week (likely Tuesday) as an upper
level trough and subsequent low pressure system shift eastward into
the area from the Deep South. In turn, rain chances increase into
the medium range (~40%) ahead of a frontal boundary. Have stuck with
blended guidance due to this system still being a week out and some
minor model disagreement. If you have outdoor interests early next
week, be sure to check back in for updates. High temperatures are
forecast to reach the mid 60s to low 70s during this time with
overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Overcast conditions prevailed over much of the Tennessee Valley
in the late morning. Clouds however have scattered from near
Meridianville to Ft Payne and to the NE. Expect this trend to
continue to the south and west, with conditions over the terminals
slowly improving this afternoon. Another stronger system forming
over the Desert SW will slowly approach the area, bringing more
clouds late tonight and on Thu. Winds for the period will be light
mainly from the south.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...RSB