308
FXUS64 KHUN 111048
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
548 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 356 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

 - Low-medium chances for showers and storms today, increasing to
   medium-high chances Saturday. A low chance of severe storms is
   forecast this afternoon, bringing a risk of gusty to damaging
   winds.

 - NWS Heat Risk will remain in the Minor to Moderate category
   throughout the forecast period.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

The previous discussion remains on track, however, SPC has added
portions of the Tennessee Valley into a Marginal Risk (level 1 of
5) for severe weather this afternoon into this evening. Pulse-
like convection will bring a low chance for downbursts and
subsequent gusty to damaging winds (up to 60 mph). Despite
thunderstorms being on the table well into the night, we will lose
support quickly with the loss of diurnal heating. Therefore, the
primary window of concern for the low chance of downbursts will
be 2 PM through 8 PM CT.

Previous Discussion:
Currently, convection can be seen both to our north and to our
south supported by two different features. To our north, a broken
line of storms can be seen draped across Tennessee supported by a
front. This front is forecast to stall just to our north through
the night with rain chances remaining below 10% through sunrise.
Lows look to drop into the low 70s with muggy conditions remaining
in place into Friday.

To our south, convection can be seen through southern Alabama
supported by a weak shortwave rippling up from the south. Through
the day on Friday this shortwave will push north and keep us
within southerly flow both at the surface and aloft. As such,
tropical moisture will surge north with dew points pushing into
the low 70s and PWATS near and above 2". This level of moisture is
slightly anomalous for early September and more closely resembles
peak summer conditions. With support of the passing short wave and
plentiful moisture, rain and storm chances will increase through
the day tomorrow, peaking in the afternoon. Scattered showers will
move from SW to NE across the area through the afternoon with
heavy rainfall being the primary threat. Solar insulation in the
morning will allow us to destabilize, yet we will be lacking any
significant shear that would allow storms to organize. As such,
scattered general thunderstorms with a few stronger storms is
what we are currently forecasting. Strongest storms will be
capable of efficient rainfall production and and brief gusty
winds. Storm coverage looks to wane after sunset with additional
rain chances addressed in the short term.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday)
Issued at 808 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Weak support from both the approaching front and departing
shortwave will keep low rain chances in place overnight and into
Saturday morning. The approaching front looks to finally drop down
on Saturday, however models suggest that it will dissipate over
us. As such, support for showers and storms will remain weak and
significant air mass change will not follow. Rain chances will
increase through the afternoon taking advantage of the continued
very moist conditions. Instability will likely be less on Saturday
due to the prolonged clouds and low rain chances, keeping our
severe risk near zero. Rather, heavy rain will again be our main
concern. Through the next 24 hours we will be keeping a closer eye
on HIRES model guidance. CAMS have begun to back off on shower
and storm coverage on Saturday, which may lead to our current
rain chances being too high. Adjustments to our rain chances will
be made as necessary over the next 24 hours as the model solution
becomes more clear.

Showers and storms look to dissipate overnight with dry conditions
building in. Through Sunday, high pressure will build in from the
southwest. This will maintain our hot and humid conditions on
Sunday with highs again in the 90s. With dew points in the mid
70s, heat indices will easily surge over triple digits. Make sure
to continue to practice proper heat and sun safety if spending
time outside.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 808 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

As we start the following work week, the upper level pattern shows a
large amplitude ridge over most of the central and eastern US. With
high pressure situated underneath the ridge, expect hot and humid
conditions to continue through the middle of next week. Afternoon
highs each afternoon will rise into the low to mid 90s with
overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. With dewpoints in the
lower 70s, heat indices are forecast to top out between 98-104F.
This is just below Advisory criteria, but regardless NWS HeatRisk
remains level 2 out of 4 (Moderate) through the end of the long term
period. Outside of the heat, there is a low chance of an afternoon
shower or thunderstorm Monday through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

VFR conditions will continue through this afternoon. Beginning at
18Z, PROB30 groups were maintained for increased rain chances
that will persist intermittently through the end of the TAF
period. During periods of rainfall, lowered visibilities and
ceilings will allow MVFR conditions at both KMSL and KHSV. Early
Sunday morning, lowered ceilings will potentially bring LIFR to
IFR conditions- which have been added as a SCT group for now due
to low confidence.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...HC