638
FXUS64 KHUN 041108
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
608 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Currently, temperatures are in the mid 50s to lower 60s, with
upper level clouds streaming over the local area. These are
remnant clouds from the shower and storm activity that is ongoing
over the northern Gulf coast. While conditions are not as dry as
last night, some locations in north-central and northeastern
Alabama as well as southern middle Tennessee may have dew point
depressions low enough for patchy fog to develop. If any were to
develop, it would likely be concentrated along bodies of water and
sheltered valleys. Although, confidence is low in this occurring
due to the clouds. Overall, the forecast remains on track with no
rain expected through the early morning hours and forecast lows
still slated to dip into the mid to upper 50s around dawn.

The upper level ridge dominating the Tennessee Valley will
gradually shift east through the day today. Guidance suggests that
the upper low over the Gulf coast will eventually be ingested
into an incoming trough over the western CONUS later this weekend.
At the same time, surface high pressure over the Appalachians
that helped bring drier conditions to the region yesterday will
push east through the day as well. This will help usher moisture
back into the region via return flow by late Sunday and into the
start of next week (see discussion below). Overall, for today, no
rain is forecast and highs are expected to reach the lower to mid
80s later this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday)
Issued at 928 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

On Sunday, the 5h low begins to shear out and become less
identifiable as a circulation. However, deep layer southeast flow
in low levels will bring moisture and shower/thunderstorm activity
through south AL into MS, eventually spreading northward and
blending with the larger scale southwesterly flow at 5h. This
brings clusters of showers and thunderstorms through MS into west
TN, and perhaps far west AL. Thus, low chances of showers remain
in the forecast for northwest AL on Monday closer to the deeper
moisture axis. High temperatures Sunday and Monday will reach the
lower to middle 80s, with mild overnight lows in the middle to
upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Friday)
Issued at 928 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

On the big picture, a troughing-west/ridging-east upper level
pattern should remain in place over the Lower-48 into early next
week. Next Mon/Tue, this pattern will begin to change into a zonal
flow for the mid/latter portion of next week. Before this happens,
the airmass already in place will continue producing unseasonably
warm conditions as we go into early next week. Low temperatures
Mon/Tue nights should range in the 60s, while highs should rise into
the low/mid 80s under partly sunny skies. Around October 7th, normal
high/low temperatures are around 80/56 degrees.

A steady ESE flow will gradually bring deeper moisture from the
Atlantic and Gulf regions to the Tennessee Valley in the new week.
This moisture and resultant instability from daytime heating will be
sufficient to allow a return of much needed rainfall to the area.
Thus, a diurnal trend for isolated showers mainly in the afternoon
continues Tuesday. On Wednesday, extended guidance was depicting
a cold front moving across the area from the north, with lower end
shower chances expected. Post frontal showers Thursday should end
in the evening as slightly cooler and drier air filters in. Highs
on Wed should range from the upper 70s to lower 80s, gradually
cooling to just the 70s (warmer west, cooler west) by Friday. Low
temperatures Wed night should fall into upper 50s/mid 60s, then
mid 50s to around 60 by Thu night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Easterly winds
this morning are expected to increase to between 5-10 knots this
afternoon. Winds will then decrease to around 5 knots or so this
evening, but persist through the overnight hours. Due to these
winds, confidence in fog development that would impact the TAF
sites tonight into Sunday morning is low.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...26