884
FXUS64 KHUN 040538
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1138 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1113 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

 - Low chances for patchy freezing fog tonight.

 - Very low chances (20% or less) for a very short window where a
   wintry mix in extreme southwestern portions of northern Alabama
   could mix in with rainfall around sunrise Thursday morning.

 - Chances for rain occur at times Thursday through Saturday
   night, with medium to high chances late this afternoon into
   tonight before ending Friday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight and Thursday)
Issued at 1113 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

A mixture of mid and high cloud cover is periodically moving
across northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee this
evening. Some lower cloud cover can be seen advancing east from
Arkansas into western Mississippi at this hour too. Expect that to
move into NW Alabama between 2 and 3 AM.

0Z soundings from both BMX and BNA are both very dry, especially
below 850 mb. Rainfall is concentrated over the western Gulf coast
area, where a surface low is moving off to the east northeast.
This movement would keep the strong forcing pretty far south of
northern AL. Though NBM ensemble is showing some 20 to 40 percent
PoP that move into NW Alabama and towards Cullman county, the
dryness of the soundings and placement of stronger forcing call
into serious question whether any precipitation can fall towards
and just after daybreak on Thursday. Left a token 20 percent
chance of rain, possible mixed with a sleet pellet or two from
Franklin county (AL) ESE into southern Lawrence and Cullman
counties. However, this should not last long and by 15Z expect any
precipitation to be rain.

Models continue to show much stronger forcing moving east into
the northwestern Alabama as a cold front pushes southeast and
moves the surface low to the northeast a bit more. Expect that to
occur mainly after 3 PM. There might be a better window for some
brief sleet development around 3 PM (when the warm nose may be
close to 1 to 3 degrees) and strong forcing moves into NW Alabama.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1113 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

However, confidence is lower given the strength of the warm nose
by 6 PM (4-6 degrees) that the sleet will continue. The precipitation
type would likely change to cold rain, given the strength of the
forecast warm nose with temperatures below that only dropping to
between 32 and 34 degrees at their lowest. In most guidance these
temperatures only increase slowly into Thursday night. Thus, for
now kept rain after 6 PM tonight. This rainfall could become moderate
at times before exiting the area during the morning hours on
Friday (maybe a bit sooner in NW AL).

By Friday afternoon, expect dry conditions to be the rule. Not
much cold air behind this initial front, as it basically stalls
over southern Alabama and Georgia. So no real push to much colder
air into the area. However, lingering cloud cover will likely keep
highs a bit cooler. Highs on Friday are expected to climb into the
mid 40s.

Saturday should be a bit warmer, with zonal flow continuing and
some clearing in the afternoon. Highs should return to the lower
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1113 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Some clearing Saturday night, but guidance shows mostly cloudy
conditions returning around midnight and continuing through the
overnight hours. Lows in the 35 to 40 degree range look
reasonable.

The main feature to watch through the long term forecast will be
the passage of a 500 MB trough through the eastern CONUS. Through
the weekend, the trough will amplify and move from the Plains into
the eastern CONUS. In association a surface low pressure system
looks to pass through the area from Sunday and Sunday night.

Deterministic models maintain high uncertainty regarding if any
precip will be present with the frontal passage. As such, stuck
with blended guidance that reflects the low chances of rain (~20%)
from Sunday night. If we do receive precip, especially near
daybreak Monday morning, we will have to keep an eye on temps as
they will likely near or just below freezing which could produce
brief and hopefully non-impactful wintry precip. We have very low
confidence in this however, just an interesting (non-impactful)
tidbit to keep an eye on.

Through the beginning of the work week, zonal flow aloft paired with
high pressure influence will promote non impactful weather. Temps
will have the opportunity to warm slightly with highs in the 40s and
50s. The forecast becomes slightly more uncertain from Wednesday
forward as models struggle to resolve our next system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

VFR conditions are expected at both terminals through 18Z. Expect
CIGS between 5000 and 10,000 feet to push into KMSL after 08Z and
after 10Z at KHSV. A prob30 group was included for CIGS becoming
MVFR with some -RA between 21Z and 23Z mainly. -SL may need to be
added in this period, but left out for now. Expect predominant
-RA to push into KMSL around 04/23Z and a bit later at KHSV at
 05/00Z. At this time, not expecting a change over back to any
 wintry precipitation.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...KTW