559
FXUS64 KHUN 111734
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1134 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1055 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

 - Low chances of precipitation return to the forecast Saturday
   night as a cold front pushes through the area.

-  A very low chance of precipitation continues late Saturday
   night could become a wintry mix before ending towards daybreak
   on Sunday, as temperatures fall below freezing just before
   daybreak as well.

 - Confidence is increasing in a potential of very cold conditions
   Sunday into Monday. We are keeping an eye on Sunday night/Very
   Early Monday morning for possible wind chill values around or
   slightly below 5 degrees towards portions of NE Alabama and
   southern middle Tennessee in some locations.


&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1055 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Scattered and thin cloud cover is in place across northern Alabama.
This cloud cover is moving east along a weak warm front moving
northeast from eastern Missouri. Model guidance shows this cloud
cover extending further SE later this afternoon into the evening
hours towards southern middle Tennessee. Not sure these clouds
will have much of an impact on high temperatures today.

Although cold air advection is shown in the boundary layer this
morning to just after noon, models do show warm air advection from
the west or southwest developing after that into the evening
hours. In the end that warm air advection should quickly warm
afternoon temperatures given the expected thin, high nature of
cloud cover. Thus, kept highs in the 45 to 50 degree range in most
areas. The exception to this will be in portions of northeastern
Alabama and southern middle Tennessee, where the westerly or
southwesterly flow in the boundary layer will likely hold off a
few hours later.

Some briefly mostly cloudy conditions may extend SE into southern
middle Tennessee this evening before pushing northeast. Overall
winds pick up as the pressure gradient increases tonight.
Sustained winds between 5 and 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph are
expected. Winds will likely have the biggest impact on low
temperatures though. Boundary layer moisture advection will
increase as well. Both processes will keep lows warmer, only
allowing temperatures to drop into the 30 to 40 degree range (low
30s NE AL).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 1055 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

A cold front Friday morning extends from the Ohio Valley regions
southwest through southern Kentucky into eastern Texas. Stronger
boundary layer warm/moisture air advection and sunny skies should
allow highs to climb into the 55 to 60 degree range in most
locations. This cold front pushes southeast through northern
Alabama during the after hours on Friday. This will bring another
round of colder drier air into the region later Friday afternoon
into Friday night. Lows mainly via cold air advection will drop
down into the lower 30s again.

This weak front stalls somewhere between central and southern
Alabama during the day on Saturday. At the same time, an Arctic
front quickly continues to push southeast from the Northern Plains
and western Great Lakes area towards the region. Extremely cold
air is associated with this frontal boundary.

As this strong arctic front pushes further southeast Saturday
afternoon into Saturday evening, it interacts with a weak area of
low pressure that develops on the stalled front in southern/central
Alabama. There could be a window overnight as the arctic cold
front continues to push southeast and that low is pulled east
ahead of it south of northern Alabama. During this period, there
may be a low risk of overunning drizzle/light rain changing to
wintry precipitation over portions of northern Alabama (likely
briefly freezing rain to light sleet). The main window for this
activity right now is from midnight on Saturday to 6 AM on Sunday.
The good new is most of the stronger forcing seems to occur in
guidance north and south of northern Alabama and southern middle
Tennessee and above the main cloud layer. However, if any
precipitation occurs, a few tenths of an inch of accumulation
(mainly on elevated bridges or trees) could occur. It will be very
breezy Saturday night. These winds along with warm ground
temperatures should help keep roadways from being slick.

The main caveat to this system concerns the forcing along that
stalled front to our south. If that front moves further north over
time in guidance, then a wintry threat could increase. However,
the trend over the past few runs has been south of the area.

The bigger issue will be the cold air that will be moving in
Saturday night along with strong surface winds. This will likely
drop wind chill values into the 10 to 15 degree range towards
daybreak on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1055 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2025

Colder arctic conditions will set in on Sunday with high
temperatures only reaching the mid/upper 20s in most locations and
a few low 30s towards Cullman county. A blustery northerly wind
of 10-15 mph with higher gusts to between 20 and 30 mph are
expected. This will keep wind chill values in the teens to single
digits through the day. Very cold conditions will continue Sun
night with lows in the low/mid teens. Winds thankfully should be
lighter by this time. However, with lower air temperatures, wind
chill values could still drop into the lower teens to single
digits overnight towards 6 AM on Monday. A Cold Weather Advisory
may be needed as we closer to that period to address wind chill
values 5 degrees or below.

Still cold for the start of the work week, with highs struggling
to around 40 on Monday. Another chilly period Monday night, with
lows in the low/mid 20s; and highs Tuesday moderating to around
50.

The models were all showing moisture return from the south Tuesday
night, bringing lower end chances of rain to the Tennessee Valley
Tue night into Wednesday. With temperatures moderating, this
should be an all liquid event. Lows Tue night should range in
the 30s (colder east), with highs Wed into the low/mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Wind shear
is expected to affect both terminals overnight tonight (starting
at 5Z at KMSL and 7Z at KHSV. Fairly strong winds shear is
expected around 40 kts from 220 degrees. Winds overnight should
keep any fog from forming. Winds will pick up after 12/15Z and
become more southwesterly around 10 kts gusting between 15 and 20
kts.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KTW