201
FXUS64 KHUN 031715
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1115 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1006 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

 - Persistent cloud cover will linger into tonight, keeping
   daytime temperatures a tad cooler in the mid/upper 40s.

 - Chances for rain occur at times Thursday through Saturday
   night, with medium to high chances Thursday night into Friday
   morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1006 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Dense overcast skies are still hanging on keeping current temps at
or slightly below freezing. Unfortunately, most of this stubborn
cloud cover is going to stick around for today into tonight, and
adjusted the forecast grids to reflect this. A wedge that is
along the far southern Appalachian Mtns will help reduce some of
the cloud cover thickness in NE AL and portions of southern middle
TN today, and that is already evident on visible satellite.
However, enough cloud cover will stick around to keep daytime
highs a tad cooler than previous forecast. Lowered the highs a few
degrees into the mid/upper 40s, however that might not have been
enough. Will monitor trends to see if an additional drop will be
needed. On the flip side, the lingering cloud cover tonight will
insulate temps, but you won`t feel it as values will still hover
around freezing. Again, cloud cover will be monitored as if skies
are able to break up or clear out, then temps will have to be
lowered. And on that same note, if cloud cover does break up,
freezing fog may be of a concern tonight into tomorrow morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 1056 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Another storm system should begin forming Wednesday afternoon
over the Texas coast. As a surface low with this system over the
NW Gulf region develops, clouds from it will begin overspreading
the Tennessee Valley during Wednesday night. Low temperatures
should cool to around 30 with light winds. Rain from this system
should begin overspreading some of the forecast area Thursday.
Areas with the best rain chances should be near/south of the
Tennessee River. High temperatures Thursday should rise into the
mid/upper 40s.

As the system traverses the Thu night/Fri morning, more rain from
the system should reach the area. This rain like with the last
system should be more stratiform than convective in nature (being
on the north side of the cyclone), thus any thunder occurrence is
minimal. The better rain chances will be more to the south. With
rain, not as cool Thursday night with lows in mid 30s (some lower
30s cannot be ruled out in southern middle Tennessee). Highs on
Friday should rise into the mid/upper 40s and lows in the 30s. The
newest NBM has went on a wetter track with rain chances as we
close out the week. The system tracking slowly along the northern
Gulf coast will keep chances of rain continuing into Saturday.
Given the low being well to our south, the higher rain chances
likewise will remain to our south. High temperatures Saturday
should inch up a bit to around 50.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1056 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

The main feature to watch through the long term forecast will be
the passage of a 500 MB trough through the eastern CONUS. Through
the weekend, the trough will amplify and move from the Plains into
the eastern CONUS. In association a surface low pressure system
looks to pass through the area from Sunday and Sunday night.

Deterministic models maintain high uncertainty regarding if any
precip will be present with the frontal passage. As such, stuck
with blended guidance that reflects the low chances of rain (~20%)
from Sunday night. If we do receive precip, especially near
daybreak Monday morning, we will have to keep an eye on temps as
they will likely near or just below freezing which could produce
brief and hopefully non-impactful wintry precip. We have very low
confidence in this however, just an interesting (non-impactful)
tidbit to keep an eye on.

Through the beginning of the work week, zonal flow aloft paired with
high pressure influence will promote non impactful weather. Temps
will have the opportunity to warm slightly with highs in the 40s and
50s. The forecast becomes slightly more uncertain from Wednesday
forward as models struggle to resolve our next system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

MVFR conditions are forecast through today due to lowered cloud
cover. Overnight, IFR conditions are likely due to ceilings
dropping to around 900ft at KMSL. A low chance of showers move in
around 12-14Z, which will bring lowered visibilities as well as
continued MVFR conditions. A low chance of patchy, freezing fog
exists pending cloud cover breaks up. However, confidence is low
and it has not been added to the TAF.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...HC