360
FXUS63 KICT 140350
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1050 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers will continue into tonight; additional showers
  possible across central KS Tuesday

- Dry and mild conditions for midweek

- Rain chances return for late week into the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

As of 2 PM Monday afternoon, broad southwest midlevel flow remains
across the central Plains with deep troughing across the western
CONUS and ridging within the MS valley. The strong front that
progressed through central KS has stalled from northern OK through
east central KS. A notable temperature gradient is evident across
the state with 50s across central KS to 70s across southeast KS.
Modest midlevel WAA continues to produce widely scattered showers
across central, south-central and southeast KS. The axis of WAA will
gradually shift north through the overnight hours with rain chances
diminishing from south to north. The most notable change with this
forecast package is the introduction of rain chances across central
KS Tuesday as a subtle midlevel shortwave trough moves from the
southern high Plains into west-central KS. The associated cloud
debris will keep temperatures much cooler with highs expected to top
out in the 60s across central KS. Mostly sunny skies across
southeast KS will allow temperatures to return into the 80s Tuesday
afternoon.

Transitioning beyond Tuesday, midlevel heights will amplify and
retrograde across the lower Plains. This will push rain chances
north and west of the area for Wednesday and Thursday. An intense
midlevel shortwave trough will eject into the northern
Rockies/Plains late Thursday into Thursday night. This will shunt a
surface trough axis towards central KS by Friday morning. While the
best shower/storm chances will generally remain north of the
forecast area and closer to the main shortwave trough axis, a few
showers/storms are possible late Thursday through the weekend.
Mid/long range guidance (EC/GFS) remain aligned with another
potent shortwave trough emerging from the southern Rockies early
next week. This system may have sufficient instability/shear
for a strong/severe storm potential.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Main aviation issues will be low ceilings along with fog
overnight into Tue morning.

Cigs have continued to slowly lower over the last few hours with
most sites along and west of I-135 now seeing IFR levels. Fog
has also started to develop with locations generally along and
west of Highway 14 having the best chance to see visibility
around or less than 2sm. So for now will run with 2-3sm at
KHUT-KGBD-KRSL through around 15z and possibly longer for KGBD-
KRSL. Low cigs will erode from the south on Tue as the warm
front quickly lifts north. So currently expecting low cigs to
clear at KICT after sunrise and central KS in the 15-18z time
frame. As far as showers go, they will continue overnight and
gradually lift north. Western and central KS will have the best
chance to see a shower with thunder still not expected.


&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...RBL