357
FXUS63 KICT 162317
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
617 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued hot Thursday through Saturday.

- A cooldown arriving on Sunday with additional chances for showers
  and storms across much of the area Saturday-Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

The cold front that swept across the area yesterday continues to mix
northward as a warm front. Some lingering stratus remains while the
shower activity has lifted north of the area by late morning. Due to
limited mixing from morning stratus, a wide range of temperatures
are anticipated today with the cooler or more seasonable air
remaining draped across parts of central and northern KS while
summer-like conditions prevail across much of southeast and portions
of south central KS. An isolated late day or early evening
shower/storm may be possible as the cap weakens but activity is
expected to be limited due to increasing subsidence from the
mid/upper ridge which is slowly building back into the region.
There is some concern that low clouds/patchy fog could redevelop
over parts of central KS as they remain within a weak easterly
upslope regime with narrow dewpoint depressions progged
tonight.

The mid/upper ridge over the Tennessee Valley is progged to
retrograde into the Mississippi Valley area/Southern Plains by late
in the week allowing summer-like heat and dry conditions to remain
draped across the area Thu-early Sat. As we move into the weekend, a
robust shortwave trough is progged to move into the Central and
Northern Rockies. This will help break down the ridge on Saturday
while driving a cold front southward into the Central Plains on
Sunday. The prefrontal trough may become a focus for deep moist
convection on Saturday afternoon while the front arrives late
Saturday night into Sunday providing an additional focus for showers
and thunderstorms. Much cooler and more seasonable air is expected
to arrive across the area on Sunday and persist as we head into the
upcoming week. Average highs for Sept 19-20 are in the lower 80s and
average lows are in the upper 50s. More seasonable air is
anticipated in the wake of the front on Sunday while lingering into
the middle of next week. A stable post-frontal regime is anticipated
early next week but some low pops were maintained at this time given
the forecast uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across south central and
southeast KS over the next 24 hours, while IFR/LIFR cigs/vsbys
remain expected across central KS beginning later tonight and
lasting into Thursday morning. Latest guidance carries the highest
confidence in these impacts mainly along/north of I-70, though LIFR
vsbys could be seen as far south as US-56. As such, decided to
introduce at GBD with this cycle and kept out of HUT for now.

Following the dissipation of fog and low ceilings (likely around
15Z), VFR conditions are expected areawide for the second half of
the period with south winds forecast at all sites. The strongest
winds look to reside in central KS with sustained speeds
around/above 13 kts, while speeds under 10 kts are expected at all
other sites.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ096-099-100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...JWK