599
FXUS63 KICT 292036
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
236 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very cold airmass moving into the area with single digit wind
  chills tonight into Sunday morning with highs on Sunday 15 to
  20 degrees below normal.

- Chances continue to increase for impactful snow on Monday,
  with many locations across central KS likely picking up more
  than an inch.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Upper impulse is currently tracking across MO and southern IA with
precip moving out of KS. Strong northwest winds are in place across
most of the forecast area as this wave departs with wind speeds
likely being enhanced by breaks in the clouds, allowing for
pockets of better mixing. Some instability snow showers
developed a couple hours ago over southern Nebraska and may
work their way into the area later this afternoon.

Northwest winds will quickly decrease as sunset approaches as the
shortwave rotates through the Mid Mississippi Valley. Still looking
for unseasonably cold air to spill south tonight, providing
single digit wind chills Sun morning and highs on Sun struggling
to make it above freezing. These readings will be 15 to 20
degrees below seasonal highs. On Sun, our next upper impulse
will be digging across the Great Basin and into the Southern
Rockies by Mon morning. This feature will then slide across the
KS/OK border during the day.

Snow will first start early Mon morning across southwest
Nebraska/northwest KS as mid level isentropic lift increases. Snow
will spread east and southeast Mon morning with models consistent
showing some mid level frontogenesis setting up generally along
I-70 with the bulk of omega in the prime snow growth region.
GFS and NAM agree on the higher snow totals further north,
generally along I-70. Meanwhile, the ECMWF has maintained its
further south track and has the higher totals near Highway 50.
NBM snow probs continue the increasing trend with greater than
60% chance for an inch or more for much of central and northeast
KS. Yesterday at this time, these same probs were around 50%.
So confidence continues to increase in an impactful snowfall,
especially for areas north of Highway 50. By late Mon afternoon,
snow will be departing southeast KS and will be out of the
forecast area by early Mon evening.

For Tue into Wed, we are still anticipating a Western CONUS
shortwave to dig across CA and into the Desert Southwest. Meanwhile,
a Polar upper low will migrate across Ontario and will keep below
normal temps in place from the Plains through the Ohio Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1108 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Some lingering IFR/MVFR cigs will gradually mix out from west to
east as we move through the afternoon hours, however far
southeast Kansas may be slower to erode with some MVFR cigs
impacting KCNU into the evening hours. Gusty northwest winds
around 30-45 knots at times will also persist in the wake of a
cold front before slowly diminishing this evening and tonight.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...MWM