


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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497 FXUS63 KICT 171122 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 622 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increasing storm chances this evening and overnight for areas along and east of the KS Turnpike. A few strong to severe storms possible. - Afternoon storm chances for far southeast Kansas Saturday. - Cold front moves through Sat through Sat evening bringing some of the coolest temps so far this fall on Sun morning. However, highs on Sun will only be a few degrees below seasonal normals. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper circulation over western ND with some additional shortwave energy from the Four Corners region into the Desert Southwest. Meanwhile, upper ridging extends through the Mississippi Valley. At the surface, cold front extends from Northeast Nebraska into northwest KS. Not out of the question a couple showers and storms develop early this morning in an area of mid level moisture transport. However, not looking for anything widespread. Upper impulse over ND will quickly lift into southern Manitoba today and at the same time, some additional upper energy will track out of Western Canada and into the Northern Rockies. Cold front will push east today, and by this afternoon will extend from eastern Nebraska into central KS and finally into the OK Panhandle. A couple showers or storms will be possible along the front today, but lack of upper dynamics and good convergence along the front will keep convection fairly limited until after dark. This is when low level jet will ramp-up and southern stream shortwave approaches the area. So currently looking for at least scattered activity after dark, generally along and east of the KS Turnpike. In this area, we are looking for elevated instability in the 1,000-1,500J/KG range and around 25-30kts of effective shear. This should be enough to get some hail with the largest stones in the nickel to quarter size range. By 12z Sat, southern stream impulse will be moving into West TX with northern stream energy moving into the Central Rockies. Cold front is forecast to stall Fri night and by Sat morning will extend somewhere near the KS Turnpike. Cold front will progress southeast Sat afternoon and will make its way across southeast KS during the late afternoon. There is some timing differences between models with the front. The NAM is the slowest of the models and would result in southeast KS having decent storm chances. Meanwhile, the majority of the models have a faster frontal passage with the more robust convective chances just east of the forecast area. So did go ahead and reduce storm chances on Sat from what the previous forecast had and would not be surprised if these are continued to be lowered with later forecasts. Strong northwest winds will be likely over central KS Sat afternoon with some gusts in the 40-45 mph range possible. Behind the front, some of the coolest temps so far this fall will overspread the area, with Sun morning lows in the 40s region wide, with some upper 30s possible over central KS. Upper trough will be sliding into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Sunday, with additional shortwave energy coming on shore over the Pacific Northwest. Even though front will bring cooler temps, they will still only be a few degrees below seasonal normals as highs Sun reach the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Pattern will remain very progressive, and by Mon afternoon, shortwave will be sliding across the Central/Northern Plains. This will allow another Pacific cold front to move through Mon night into Tue morning. However, before it moves through, above normal temps will briefly return for Mon, with highs back into the 70s to around 80 degrees. Our next chance for rain will be for Wed night into Thu as a small/compact upper impulse tracks out of Southern CA, across the Four Corners region and across Southern KS/OK. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Main aviation concerns will be wind shift associated with a cold front along with evening storm chances. Cold front currently stretches from eastern Nebraska to just northwest of KRSL and into western KS. This front will continue to push southeast this morning, moving through KRSL-KGBD and KSLN. It will eventually stall out early this afternoon just northwest of the KS Turnpike. Expect northwest and north winds behind the front, but not looking for much in the way of showers or storms. However, convective chances will increase early this evening and continue through the overnight hours. Locations along and especially southeast of the KS Turnpike will have the higher storm chances. So for now will include a prob30 at KCNU starting at 00z. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RBL AVIATION...RBL