998
FXUS63 KICT 042320
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
520 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near normal temperatures are likely for Friday and Saturday
  with colder temperatures forecast for Sunday before above
  normal temperatures return early next week.

- Mostly dry conditions will prevail through the weekend into
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Currently, there is a weak upper-level shortwave over Kansas with
upper troughing over the southwest US approaching the Central
Rockies. At the surface, expansive high pressure sits over the
Midwest, stretching into Kansas and Oklahoma.

Tonight, low temperatures will remain slightly below normal with
lows in the lower 20s. On Friday, low-level downslope flow will help
moderate temperatures bringing highs into the upper 40s and lower
50s. Warmer temperatures will continue into Saturday as low-level
WAA keeps highs on Saturday afternoon in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
By Saturday afternoon, an upper-level shortwave trough over SD/NE
will move towards the Upper Mississippi Valley. The associated
surface low will push south through Nebraska Saturday afternoon into
eastern Kansas by Saturday night. Given southerly surface winds will
advect some moisture into southeast Kansas Saturday night, low
chances of drizzle will be possible late Saturday night in southeast
KS. However, at this time, the ECMWF is the most optimistic model
regarding this solution. Better precipitation chances will stay
northeast of our area. The aforementioned surface low will push a
cold front through our area by Sunday morning, bringing in another
surge of cold air. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s
on Sunday with breezy northerly winds.

Monday and beyond... Northwest flow aloft is forecast to persist in
our area Monday and Tuesday as weak upper-level ridging sits over
the western CONUS. The next upper-level trough is progged to move
into the Northern Plains Tuesday night. Its associated surface low
will move east from the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi
Valley Tuesday night, keeping precipitation chances out of our area.
A warming trend will start on Monday as close to normal temperatures
return with highs in the 40s on Monday afternoon. Warmer than normal
850 mb temperatures are forecast for Tuesday, aiding in the return
of above normal surface temperatures. Highs are expected to range
from the lower 50s in southeast KS to the upper 50s in central and
south-central KS on Tuesday, which is about 10 degrees above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 518 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Light
southerly winds overnight will increase slightly and turn out of
the southwest on Friday morning. A weak frontal boundary will
move northwest to southeast across the region on Friday
afternoon/evening turning winds out of the northwest and
increasing winds to around 10 knots.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...AMD