497
FXUS63 KICT 171122
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
622 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing storm chances this evening and overnight for areas
  along and east of the KS Turnpike. A few strong to severe
  storms possible.

- Afternoon storm chances for far southeast Kansas Saturday.

- Cold front moves through Sat through Sat evening bringing some
  of the coolest temps so far this fall on Sun morning.
  However, highs on Sun will only be a few degrees below
  seasonal normals.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper circulation over
western ND with some additional shortwave energy from the Four
Corners region into the Desert Southwest. Meanwhile, upper
ridging extends through the Mississippi Valley. At the surface,
cold front extends from Northeast Nebraska into northwest KS.

Not out of the question a couple showers and storms develop
early this morning in an area of mid level moisture transport.
However, not looking for anything widespread.

Upper impulse over ND will quickly lift into southern Manitoba
today and at the same time, some additional upper energy will
track out of Western Canada and into the Northern Rockies. Cold
front will push east today, and by this afternoon will extend
from eastern Nebraska into central KS and finally into the OK
Panhandle. A couple showers or storms will be possible along the
front today, but lack of upper dynamics and good convergence
along the front will keep convection fairly limited until after
dark. This is when low level jet will ramp-up and southern
stream shortwave approaches the area. So currently looking for
at least scattered activity after dark, generally along and east
of the KS Turnpike. In this area, we are looking for elevated
instability in the 1,000-1,500J/KG range and around 25-30kts of
effective shear. This should be enough to get some hail with the
largest stones in the nickel to quarter size range.

By 12z Sat, southern stream impulse will be moving into West TX
with northern stream energy moving into the Central Rockies.
Cold front is forecast to stall Fri night and by Sat morning
will extend somewhere near the KS Turnpike. Cold front will
progress southeast Sat afternoon and will make its way across
southeast KS during the late afternoon. There is some timing
differences between models with the front. The NAM is the
slowest of the models and would result in southeast KS having
decent storm chances. Meanwhile, the majority of the models have
a faster frontal passage with the more robust convective chances
just east of the forecast area. So did go ahead and reduce storm
chances on Sat from what the previous forecast had and would not
be surprised if these are continued to be lowered with later
forecasts. Strong northwest winds will be likely over central KS
Sat afternoon with some gusts in the 40-45 mph range possible.
Behind the front, some of the coolest temps so far this fall
will overspread the area, with Sun morning lows in the 40s
region wide, with some upper 30s possible over central KS.

Upper trough will be sliding into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on
Sunday, with additional shortwave energy coming on shore over
the Pacific Northwest. Even though front will bring cooler
temps, they will still only be a few degrees below seasonal
normals as highs Sun reach the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.
Pattern will remain very progressive, and by Mon afternoon,
shortwave will be sliding across the Central/Northern Plains.
This will allow another Pacific cold front to move through Mon
night into Tue morning. However, before it moves through, above
normal temps will briefly return for Mon, with highs back into
the 70s to around 80 degrees. Our next chance for rain will be
for Wed night into Thu as a small/compact upper impulse tracks
out of Southern CA, across the Four Corners region and across
Southern KS/OK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Main aviation concerns will be wind shift associated with a cold
front along with evening storm chances.

Cold front currently stretches from eastern Nebraska to just
northwest of KRSL and into western KS. This front will continue
to push southeast this morning, moving through KRSL-KGBD and
KSLN. It will eventually stall out early this afternoon just
northwest of the KS Turnpike. Expect northwest and north winds
behind the front, but not looking for much in the way of showers
or storms. However, convective chances will increase early this
evening and continue through the overnight hours. Locations
along and especially southeast of the KS Turnpike will have the
higher storm chances. So for now will include a prob30 at KCNU
starting at 00z.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...RBL