788
FXUS62 KILM 020643
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
243 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes have been made to the forecast with this
morning`s update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) An early morning cold front will scour out moisture, leaving
only a small chance of showers across parts of South Carolina
today.

2) An unseasonably chilly Canadian airmass will bring
temperatures 12-16 degrees below normal tonight through
Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: An early morning cold front will scour out
moisture, leaving only a small chance of showers across parts of
South Carolina today.

A cold front is moving south across the eastern Carolinas and
should be pushing across the Santee River and toward Charleston
by sunrise. The last of the showers across eastern South
Carolina should push offshore between 6-8 AM and Canadian high
pressure over the Great Lakes will begin to build southward.
Although dry air will eventually work its way across the area
today, there is a very slight chance of a pop-up shower this
afternoon across Williamsburg and western Georgetown counties
where a sliver of instability could still exist at the top of
the daytime mixed layer.


KEY MESSAGE 2: An unseasonably chilly Canadian airmass will
bring temperatures 12-16 degrees below normal tonight through
Wednesday night.

A deep upper level trough will pivot across the Carolinas this
evening and offshore overnight. Cold advection that begins
today will intensify overnight as a deep stream of Canadian air
is pulled south behind the upper trough. No matter what level
you look at this is an unusual airmass for early June. 850 mb
temps bottoming out in the +7C to +9C range and 700 mb temps
falling to 0C to -2C are both a couple degrees below the 10th
percentile climatological values for this time of year at KMHX.

Our forecast low for tonight is 52 in Wilmington. If this
verifies it will tie the coldest June temperature in Wilmington
this century when it reached 52 degrees on 6/5/2023.

Location       Forecast Low  Last Time This Cold in June
Wilmington          52                6/5/2023
N Myrtle Beach      54                6/9/2017
Florence            51                6/1/2024
Lumberton           50                6/1/2024

Even in Lumberton, 50 degree or colder readings in June have only
occurred twice this century so far.

The airmass should begin to modify Wednesday and Wednesday
night`s lows will be a few degrees warmer than tonight`s, but
still a good 10-12 degrees below normals for early June.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front, two cloud decks, plus some areas of low stratus
only 400-500 feet AGL will make this a very tricky forecast
early this morning.

First off, patchy IFR stratus will periodically affect KILM,
KCRE, and KFLO for the next couple of hours. A southward-moving
cold front should sweep through the area before daybreak and
scour out the stratus, but also potentially bringing in a
slightly higher layer of stratocumulus near 1500 feet AGL along
the coast, affecting KILM, KCRE, and KMYR. All low clouds
should erode around 13z as drier northeasterly winds begin to
increase. Gusts could reach 20 knots during the day as Canadian
high pressure builds in from the north. Wind speeds should
diminish toward sunset.

Extended Forecast...There is a low potential for early morning
ground fog or low stratus clouds Thursday, Friday, and Saturday
mornings, otherwise VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front is pushing southward across the area as I write and
should be south of Georgetown and Winyah Bay around sunrise.
Northeasterly winds will increase throughout the day, reaching
20 to occasionally 25 kt today through Wednesday morning. The
Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect for the winds and
for seas anticipated to build to 4-6 feet inside 20 miles from
shore, and to 7-9 feet over the 20-60 mile offshore waters.

Canadian high pressure over the Great Lakes today will build
southeastward, finally reaching the East Coast on Thursday.
Light winds will develop as the high reaches the area, then
should turn more southerly for the weekend as the high drifts
offshore.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ106-108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT
     Thursday for AMZ250-252.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT
     Thursday for AMZ254-256.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA
KEY MESSAGES...TRA
DISCUSSION...TRA
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA