051
FXUS62 KILM 171752
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
152 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid summertime weather will continue with
temperatures above normal for most of the week. Frontal passage
late Thursday will lead to a slight uptick in rain chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
Mainly isolated showers across the area. Any showers that
develop will be quick lived but should produce a good brief
soaking.

Aviation discussion updated below for the 18z TAFs.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A warm, humid air mass will remain in place through the forecast
period but a building ridge aloft should limit convection to the
isolated to scattered range this afternoon and early evening. Highs
today will reach the lower 90s with cooler numbers nearer the
beaches. Lows tonight will generally be in the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mid level ridging will be in place across the
southeast during the period. Pops remain minimal for the period with
perhaps a little activity on the sea breeze. As for temperatures and
the possibility of a heat advisory or two...guidance seems to have
cooled ever so slightly but headlines remain a possibility.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A mid level trough and the associated cold front will
affect the area Friday and into Saturday with diminishing impacts
later in the period. Good chance pops reside across the area both
early days mainly moreso in the later afternoon and early evening
hours. Thermal profiles become unfavorable for convection Sunday
into Monday. Highs will be in the lower to middle 90s with lows in
the lower to middle 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High confidence in mainly VFR conditions across SE NC and NE SC
through the 18Z TAF period. A ridge aloft will limit coverage
and intensity of convection this aftn and again on Wed, but
local effects such as the sea breeze and inland trough will
continue to help produce mainly isolated to widely scattered
shwrs/tstms. Have included Prob 30 groups for ILM, FLO and LBT
for a brief sub-VFR TSRA mainly between 18z and 22z.

Extended Outlook...A front will produce periods of sub-VFR in
shwrs/tstms late Thurs into Fri. Otherwise, brief restrictions
due to widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...
S to SW winds of 10 to 15 KT will increase to 15 to
20 KT today and continue into tonight. Seas will run 3 to 4 FT.


Wednesday through Saturday...
South to southwest winds of 10-15 knots will be in place
most of the forecast period as Bermuda High pressure remains the
focus. Speeds will probably increase briefly Thursday to 15-20 knots
as the inland trough gets better enhanced increasing the gradient.
Significant seas will be 2-4 feet.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...SHK/31