Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
698 FXUS62 KILM 052323 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 723 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Discussion updated for 00Z TAF issuance. Updated the first key message to focus on the severe weather threat for later today/this evening. Also added a second key message for additional storms Sunday, followed by more seasonable weather through mid-week. Marine discussion was updated, along with the aviation section for 18Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Severe weather potential exists for damaging wind gusts, especially later this afternoon and evening. 2) There is a potential for additional thunderstorms during Sunday, followed by more seasonable weather through mid-week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe weather potential exists for damaging wind gusts, especially later this afternoon and evening. A Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms continues for most of the forecast area with the risk greatest late this afternoon into the early evening. Strong heating ahead of an old MCS embedded in the NWly steering will result in the development of scattered thunderstorms that will peak this evening. While some hail is possible the the wind risk has been increased to 30% and is the primary threat. The area of storms should move at a decent pace through the area, with the severe weather risk decreasing by later in the evening. KEY MESSAGE 2... There is a potential for additional thunderstorms during Sunday, followed by more seasonable weather through mid-week. A large upper low across New England and eastern Canada with the H5 ridge will focus another minor short-wave across the area during Sunday. While available instability will not be as high as today across the forecast area additional showers and thunderstorms are expected with some having the potential to become strong toward the better instability across SC. Thus plan to focus the highest PoPs across the SC zones, closer to where the front becomes oriented. Storms will dissipate with the loss of heating Sunday evening. Temperatures will finally feel like normal Monday through Wednesday with much drier conditions Tuesday and Wednesday in particular. Ridging will likely build back across the area by Thursday with a return of +90 highs expected across the area. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Line of thunderstorms will continue to shift offshore over the next hour. Light rain may impact a couple of terminals through 02Z, but MVFR at worst. VFR this evening and through the early morning hours. Northeast winds following a cold front should bring stratus and patchy fog tomorrow morning. The best chance of fog will be inland with stratus likely to dominate at the coast and behind the cold front. Expect another round of SHRA/TSRA possible after 18Z Sunday near the slow-moving frontal boundary. Extended Outlook... Additional restrictions possible Sunday afternoon and evening from scattered convection. Generally a low risk for restrictions thereafter with generally prevailing VFR conditions as high pressure builds to the north keeping drier air in place. && .MARINE... Today through Thursday...A cold front will drop south across the waters tonight with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Some of the thunderstorms could produce strong wind gusts as they move through, along with frequent lightning. N-NEly flow will develop Sunday, quickly veering to an Ely direction by Sunday after noon. During Monday as high pressure ridges in from the north the pressure gradient will increase with a period of marginal Small Craft conditions possible in a NE-Ely fetch. This fetch could stay focused across the waters into Tuesday as well. The surface ridge axis will build over the area during Wednesday with conditions improving across all waters. Finally, as the area of high pressure moves farther offshore the winds will veer around to a Sly direction Thursday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM KEY MESSAGES...SRP DISCUSSION...SRP AVIATION...21/SRP MARINE...SRP