Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 261753
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1253 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonable weather will dominate the Eastern Carolinas for much
of this work week. A couple of weak disturbances will affect
the region with some clouds and possible light rain on Monday
and again on Wednesday. A more vigorous storm system will arrive
for the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Seasonable day on tap, with cirrus streaming across the area,
filtering out the sun at times and thickening later today into
tonight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Rather somewhat tranquil period on tap for the FA this period.
Expect benign conditions today as the stacked low pressure
system located over SE Canada and the NE States begins to
finally but slowly pull off toward the NE. The cyclonic flow
around this stacked system will continue to affect the FA but at
much reduced levels. At the sfc, flow around the weak sub
1020mb high centered over the SE States, will temporarily become
the dominant feature today into tonight.

Late tonight thru Mon, looking at an increase in clouds and a low
chance for periodic light rain. Mid-level flow generally
troffiness across the Eastern 1/3rd of the U.S. A few embedded
s/w trofs to affect the FA, 1 remaining just south of the
FA...moving eastward from the NE Gulf of Mexico to off Florida.
And the other, moving from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the
Western Carolinas by Mon daybreak...and continuing its eastward
push to off the Carolina Coasts by sunset Mon. A 3rd and more
vigorous s/w trof will really clean things out, pushing any
remaining weak s/ws and associated clouds and pcpn off the
Carolina Coasts Mon night.

Moisture availability will be limited given flow aloft is not
expected to sharpen or amplify enough to tap any of the major
sources prior to reaching the ILM CWA. Thus, moisture
accompanying these s/w trofs will have to be relied upon. As a
result, pcpn amounts will generally be under one tenth of an
inch. Todays Max temps and tonights Mins will run near normal.
Will generally keep Mon maxes slightly below model MOS consensus
especially if the days insolation remains untapped.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A weak and relatively fast moving system will be on the way out
at the beginning of the period. We maintained the slight chance
pops for mainly eastern areas for the first few hours of the
forecast, Monday evening. Weak high pressure will build in for
Tuesday in the system`s wake in essentially a zonal flow at the
mid levels. Regarding temperatures, no significant changes from
the previous day with highs in the middle 50s or so and morning
lows in basically in the middle 30s. These numbers are very near
seasonal normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The extended period will feature a mainly zonal flow aloft with
weak high pressure in place at the surface. There is one fast
moving system similar to Monday`s system that appears to move
across somewhat harmlessly and has general agreement among
global guidance. A system for late week into the weekend has the
ECMWF advertising a weaker system that doesn`t phase with a
system diving out of the plains while the GFS does. If this
season remains true to form the weaker solution will verify. Way
too early to determine at this point so chance pops remain in
place. Temperatures remain stable and near seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected throughout the 24 hr TAF Issuance
Period. Weak high pressure centered over the SE States will
dominant the area TAFs tonight into Mon. Increasing moisture in
the mid-upper levels will result in a SCT to BKN Cirrus deck
lowering and thickening to altocu at 10K-12K feet and eventually
BKN around 5-7K ft. Winds, W to NW near 10 kt today will drop
to 5 kt or less by sunset and continue light overnight. Have
included VCSH for inland TAFs after 14Z or mid morning on
Monday.

Extended Outlook...VFR with potential for MVFR conditions from
reduced VSBY and ceilings due to patchy light rain, as a couple
of weak upper disturbances impact the area Mon and Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas this period to remain below advisory and warning
thresholds through much of this work week.

A rather tranquil period of offshore winds thru Mon. This the
result of strong cyclonic flow associated with the stacked low
pressure system over SE Canada. This stacked system will pull
further away from the Lower 48 states thru Mon, relaxing the
tightened gradient of the past few days. Weak high pressure
centered over the SE States will in turn ridge and prevail
across the waters this aftn thru Mon. Weak s/w trof aloft, will
push across the waters Mon and may develop a weak low just off
the Carolina coasts late Mon aftn before accelerating well
offshore Mon Evening. Winds and resulting seas could briefly
increase Mon into Mon evening, but will remain below Adv
thresholds. Winds generally offshore in direction thruout this
period, ie. WSW to NNW. Wind speeds generally 15 kt or less.
Significant seas will range between 2 and 4 ft with a few 5
footers possible across the outer waters from Little River Inlet
to off Cape Fear due to the Westerly winds nearly paralleling
the coastline allowing enough fetch to build those 5 footers.

Weak high pressure will be the main driver of winds and seas
for the mid week marine forecast. Weak is the operative word as
wind speeds shouldn`t be above 15 knots or so beyond Mon night.
A westerly flow in the wake of a surface trough brings these
winds followed by weak northeast flow of ten knots or less. A
bit of a surge may occur late in the workweek as high pressure
noses down due to events to the west. With this pattern
significant seas will be 2-4 feet early dropping off the next
few days.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/SHK


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