Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 211725
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
125 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A gradual warming trend is expected in the days ahead with
skies remaining fair to partly cloudy, and very little chance
of rain in the upcoming period.

&&

.UPDATE...
All is well with the forecast this morning. I did have to make a
minor adjustment to the temperature curve as the boundary layer
warms quickly this time of year. Otherwise expect sunny skies
with highs in the lower to middle 80s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface streamlines this morning reveal a high pressure
circulation centered over the inland northeast corner of SC,
centered between Hyman and Hannah. This feature is holding in
check a coastal land- breeze boundary adjacent to it along the
NE SC coast, earlier producing a zone of clouds from Georgetown
to Holden Beach. Onshore wind today will allow moisture remnants
to transition to afternoon cumulus inland, but mostly sunny
will characterize much of the day for many if not most
locations. 1-4 degrees warmer today than yesterday, more notable
inland, lesser change by the coastal zones.

Primary hazard today resides in the surfzone of area beaches, as
lingering swell will maintain a few strong rip currents, on the
official last weekend of summer, before equinox 9/23/350am EDT,
and with moderate to large crowds expected, rescues are
anticipated.

Into Sunday, although onshore, moist maritime flow continues to
spread inland, it remains shallow, with desert-like air above
6000 feet. As such we have POP values too low for inclusion
through the period, outside of an isolate marine shower well
out. Daytime temperatures Sunday are expected to be similar to
today. If there is any difference, we might see a bit more
cumulus Sunday, and patches of fog into daybreak of slightly
increased coverage.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will shift farther off the NC coast Sun night with
a light return flow, becoming more southerly through Mon as a
dry cold front approaches from the NW. The ridge gets
suppressed slightly farther south on Monday while mid to upper
trough swings across the Great Lakes, pushing this cold front
south and east. It will push this front through the Carolinas,
but the ridge aloft will begin to build back up from the south
helping to suppress any pcp, but do expect some clouds. The
moist return flow will push dewpoints up a bit with overnight
lows in the low to mid 60s most places. Highs on Mon will be in
the mid 80s to near 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Quiet wx expected next week as a dry cold front moves farther
off shore Tuesday, followed by high pressure for the remainder
of the week. Minor perturbations over the top of the upper ridge
may produce a spotty shower, but for now will keep pcp out of
forecast Wed into Thurs. High pressure will dominate Fri into
the weekend as deep ridge of high pressure builds over the
Southeast. Conditions will be more summer-like with dewpoints in
the mid to upper 60s and day time highs in the mid 80s to around
90 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the evening with a dry column
and high pressure in place across the Carolinas. TEMPO MVFR
visibilities and maybe a bit of IFR are possible especially at
KFLO and KLBT from 08-12Z time frame. Any BR would quickly
dissipate around 12Z with good insolation taking hold.
Otherwise, the light wind field Sunday will turn to an onshore
direction along the coast as the sea breeze develops and pushes
inland of KCRE, KMYR, and KILM.

Extended Outlook...VFR, except localized to patchy fog early
mornings through early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Favorable seas for mariners, very little steepness or wind-
sea, dominated by swell from the E between 11-13 seconds, as
Humberto`s back-thrown wave-train continues a fade trend. By
Sunday however, we will receive additional wave-trains, Jerry
fore-runners and a more more local SE wave from the SE at 7
seconds. Still, all this will `not` raise any advisories as
wave-heights remain low.

The longer period waves although not large, may cause standing
wave turbulence in entrances during outgoing tides. No TSTMS
this period, isolated marine showers in and near the Gulf
Stream.

A weak and dry front will approach from the NW Mon night into
Tues while Jerry passes by well east of the waters. This should
kick S-SW winds up a bit late Mon and should swing winds around
to a more off shore direction on Tues. High pressure will shift
just east of the local waters and dominate Wed through the
remainder of the week. Seas in the 2 to 3 ft range Sun night
will increase up to 3 to 4 ft Mon night into Tues. Overall
expect seas in the 2 to 4 ft range with longer period SE swells
mixing in.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
NC...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SRP
MARINE...MJC/RGZ/SHK


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