Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 251747

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
145 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019

High pressure will build slowly into the Carolinas through mid
week with hot and mainly dry weather. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms will remain limited through much of the week into
the weekend. The best chance will come late Sunday into early
Monday as a front drops south through the Carolinas.


As of 930 AM Tuesday...Only change was to tweak sky grids down into
"mostly sunny" category. 12Z RAOBs show several weak inversions that
should keep cumulus development very flat.

As of 300 AM Tuesday...Ridge of high pressure builds across the
Carolinas for the next 36 hours, which will bring warm and dry
conditions to the region with little change to the forecast.
Afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s is a little above average
for late June, and dew points in the 60s/70s will bring heat
indices in the mid to upper 90s with a few locations upwards of


As of 300 AM Tuesday...Weak high pressure will shift off the
coast to the north Wed night through Thurs. This will shift
winds around to a more on shore flow with shallow moisture
present, but expanding mid to upper ridge will limit potential
for any convective activity. Overall, expect some cu
development, mainly along sea breeze boundary Thurs aftn, but
otherwise, expect a relatively dry period with temps between 90
and 95 most places and overnight lows right around 70.


As of 300 AM Tuesday...Latest model runs keep mid to upper ridge
maintaining a strong hold over the region Friday into Saturday
as Bermuda High begins to dominate at the sfc. May see some high
clouds around, but plenty of dry air through the mid levels
should keep convective activity at bay. Should just see some cu
development each aftn mainly along sea breeze boundary.

Northern stream mid to upper trough digs down slightly by Sunday
trying to push a cold front south into Monday. Best upper level
support will remain displaced far to the north and looks like
ridge may hold off much influence from this system. This will be
the best chc of any pcp, mainly late Sun into Sun night. But,
overall, looking less likely for much more than some cu and a
few stray showers possible through much of the week. Does look
like some passing high clouds may filter the sun at times, but
overall not much chc of pcp through much of the week into early
next week. Temps should run between 90 and 95 most days with
overnight lows hovering near 70.


As of 18z...VFR. Cumulus clouds having difficult time developing
this afternoon due to lack of moisture and subsidence aloft. Mostly
clear skies throughout TAF period with few to scattered high clouds
as high pressure continues to build from the southwest. May see a
few mid level clouds this afternoon into overnight hours, but will
be tough. No fog or stratus concerns. Northwest winds this evening,
with westerly at MYR/CRE with sea breeze, will veer to northerlies
by tomorrow morning.

Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR through the period with brief MVFR/IFR
conditions with possible early morning fog and/or low stratus.


As of 300 AM Tuesday...Quiet conditions offshore with mainly
offshore winds under 15 kts for the next 36 hours. Wave heights
around 2 feet with main swell direction from the southeast
between 9 and 11 seconds, with some wind waves from the
southeast between 4 and 6 seconds.

High pressure will shift slowly off shore and farther east Wed
night through Fri before Bermuda High begins to dominate
through the weekend. This will maintain a weak gradient with
east to southeast winds 10 kt or less into the weekend. Seas
mainly 2 ft or less through Sat will begin to increase slightly
in a S-SW flow Sat night.





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