Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 251650
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1250 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak disturbance will bring overcast skies and scattered
showers to portions of the area today. Quiet and mild weather
will follow through Wednesday. A complex system will bring
unsettled weather Thursday and Friday with cooler and drier
conditions arriving by next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Updated the ZFP to lower pops to chance to likely range for
moment and to account for diminishing pops during the afternoon.
Otherwise, no changes were made.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Approaching disturbance and associated frontal
boundaries will bring increasing clouds today with chances for
thundershowers.  With cooler air filtering into the region,
afternoon highs today will range on the order of 5 to 15 degrees
cooler than yesterday with readings in the low to mid 70s, which is
closer to normal for late October. Precipitation diminishes this
evening and cool weather continues into Monday with highs in the low
to mid 70s with mostly cloudy skies starting to clear by Monday
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Remaining dry Monday night into Tuesday night as high pressure
slowly loosens its grip over the area. Lingering stratus is likely
with a weak CAD pattern in place. Southerly flow will develop during
the day on Tuesday; southerly winds and upper ridge to the south
will keep temperatures and dew points slightly above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Moisture will steadily increase out of the south on Wednesday as a
tropical disturbance over the Gulf inches closer to the SE coast.
Models currently show the potential for unsettled weather beginning
late Wednesday. Showers will become more likely during the day on
Thursday and Thursday evening as the tropical system merges with a
disturbance over the southern Plains and pushes eastward. Location
and strength of these two low pressure systems will play a key role
in determining the timing and amount of precip through the end of
the week. The hybrid system will move quickly off to the NE and push
a cold front through the area Thursday night into early Friday. High
pressure will bring quiet weather and cooler temperatures Friday
evening into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Intermittent light to moderate rain will slowly taper off this
afternoon. Ceilings will lift temporarily by late afternoon.
Tonight, looks like the IFR ceilings will return around midnight,
lasting well into the daytime hours on Monday.

Extended Outlook...Looking at mainly VFR Mon through Wed with
possible MVFR/IFR during the early morning hrs each day from ground
fog and/or low stratus. For late Wed thru Thu, expect a CFP followed
by weak high pressure.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through Monday...Seas 2 to 4 feet over the next 36 hours with
continued 12 to 14 second easterly swell from hurricane Epsilon.
Easterly winds 5 to 10 kts shift to the north tonight as a cold
front passes with speeds increasing to 10 to 15 kts with gusts to 20
kts. Showers and thunderstorms could develop with locally higher
winds and waves.

Monday through Friday... Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions
continue through the first half of next week with weak high
pressure in the vicinity. Winds remain around 10 kt out of the
NE through Wed with seas 2-3 feet. Marine conditions then ramp
up with seas increasing to 6 feet by late Thursday (SCA likely).
Dangerous marine conditions may continue into early next
weekend, even after the cold front pushes through, due to high
pressure building into the area. Surges of NE winds could
produce N and NE winds 15-20 knots, maintaining rough seas.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...31
NEAR TERM...MCK
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...MCK
MARINE...MCK/21


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