Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 160700
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
300 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring a long stretch of seasonable and rain-
free weather. Temperatures slowly warm during the week as center
of the high pressure shifts east of the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ridging across the Plains and a longwave trough over the west-
central Atlantic will maintain a northwest mid and upper level
flow across the Carolinas. Surface high pressure currently
centered along the Mid Atlantic coast will move out to sea and
another day of mostly sunny skies and dry weather is expected.
The airmass will warm by another couple of degrees over
yesterday and forecast highs are near 80 inland with mid-upper
70s on the beaches.

A weak front will slide south across North Carolina late
tonight, stalling across the Sandhills region Monday morning.
Any change in airmass should remain north of our forecast area.
Enough moisture should arrive in the northwest flow aloft Monday
that a few hundred J/kg of instability could develop between
800-500 mb, especially inland. With high LCLs (>6000 feet) and
no clear trigger for convection I`m keeping the forecast dry,
however later forecasts could include a small PoPs for daytime
showers in the Lumberton- Bennettsville-Darlington area Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure centered to the northeast in the short
term will maintain onshore low level winds, with some mid level
moisture advecting from the northwest leading to scattered
clouds. Tuesday afternoon may be the only chance to see any
precipitation in the next 7 days, but chances are pretty slim.
May see an isolated shower or two in the afternoon inland,
particularly along sea breeze, but unfortunately nothing that
would help our drought conditions. Lows in the upper 50s with
highs Tuesday in the low 80s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High and dry with slowly warming temperatures continue for back
half of the week. Center of surface high pressure shifts
southward and settles near the Carolinas. Strong high pressure
develops in the mid and upper levels over the eastern US
maintaining very dry air aloft. Low level moisture decent enough
for fog potential each morning. Ridge forecasted to weaken
Saturday as 500mb shortwave rides over eastern edge and a
surface trough develops, though moisture remains limited. High
temps slowly warm from near normal Wednesday to above normal by
end of the week, with near normal lows.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours. Onshore
seabreeze winds will develop near the coast this afternoon after
17z and could reach 10-12 knots at times.

Extended Outlook...Except for some possible low ceilings or
reduced visibility in fog late tonight/early Tuesday morning at
ILM and LBT, VFR conditions should continue.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...High pressure will move off the Mid Atlantic
coast today, leading to several days of light mainly onshore
winds here in the Carolinas. Wind directions will become mainly
a function of time-of-day as the seabreeze/landbreeze cycle
turns winds onshore during the afternoons and offshore late at
night. Wind speeds should average 10 knots or less. Seas should
dominated by an 8 second easterly swell averaging 2-3 feet,
highest north of Cape Fear.

Monday Night through Thursday...Favorable marine conditions
continue through the week as high pressure centered to the
northeast early shifts southward mid-week. Northeast winds 10-15
kts Tuesday shift to easterlies around 10 kts Tuesday night
through Thursday. Seas 2-3 ft through mid week as an E swell,
with some 4 footers possible to the south and outer coastal
waters beginning Wednesday night.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/VAO


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