Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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894
FXUS62 KILM 150626
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
125 AM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure system will produce periods of rain through today
before lifting off to the northeast. High pressure then builds in
from the west early next week, remaining over the Carolinas through
Wednesday. The next storm system will begin to affect the area on
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 950 PM Friday...Updated model forecasts depict another round
of moderate to heavy rain returns during the overnight hours.

Main concern continues to be the potential for flash flooding
with excess rainfall over saturated area soils. Instability has
been fairly week over the mainland with the only reported
lightning strikes occurring well offshore. Therefore not
expecting any thunderstorm activity tonight into Saturday
morning, but instead just rain showers with heavy downpours at
times.

Currently anticipating rainfall to end across the region by late
Saturday afternoon or early Saturday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Friday...Drying trend from Saturday aftn continues
into Saturday night as the area of surface low pressure pushes
offshore. With the upr-level low still NW of the area, did
include a small chance of shower Saturday evening. Dry
thereafter for the remainder of the short term period as the
upr-level low starts to pull offshore. As for temps, expect lows
mainly in the 40s both Saturday and Sunday nights with highs
Sunday in the lwr 60s...very close to climatological norms.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 PM Friday...Dry wx to start off the long term period
with dry deep-layer NW flow and surface high pressure building
into the OH Valley. High temps in the lwr 60s Sunday. The high
builds down into the Carolinas Tuesday and Wednesday with the NW
flow aloft transitioning to SWly ahead of the next low pressure
system. High temps in the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday. There
continues to be considerable spread between the GFS and ECMWF
with their 12Z cycles...with the GFS still showing a dry fropa
on Thursday with the ECMWF showing very wet conditions as it
greatly amplifies an upr-level trough. Leaned towards the ECMWF
for now with the CMC wet as well...carried 40% PoPs for
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 06Z...Sub-VFR conditions will continue through the majority of
the TAF period. Ceilings should remain less than 2000ft across the
area until the latter portion of the TAF period, but may oscillate
between MVFR and IFR (and LIFR, particularly at inland terminals).
Areas of heavy rainfall and fog will produce reduced visibilities at
times. Widespread light rain through this morning will become more
scattered/VCSH from southwest to northeast, and drying out between
22z and 02z. . Chance of a thunderstorm at coastal terminals, but
expect most of instability to remain offshore. S to SW winds will
veer slowy to the SW-W as low pressure in southern Mississippi
Valley lifts off to the northeast.

Extended Outlook...Sun through Wed...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 950 PM Friday...Gusty conditions and elevated wave heights
continue to warrant a Small Craft advisory through tonight into
Saturday night. Instability over the offshore waters may allow
for the development of thunderstorms with gusty shifting winds
and lightning strikes through Saturday afternoon.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Friday...Small Craft Advisory continues through
Saturday evening with seas still lingering close to 6 ft out 20
nm. Winds and seas gradually improve into Sunday as low
pressure pushes farther offshore. Sub-Small Craft Advisory
conditions then through the middle of next week as high
pressure builds in from the NW. Winds mainly 10-20 kt through
this period with 2-4 ft seas.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 950 PM Friday...Wilmington`s annual rainfall total stands
at 99.65 inches as of 9:50 PM tonight. Our latest total
rainfall forecast for this storm system will range from 1 to 2
additional inches. This should make it close to pushing our
annual total over 100 inches! Details are available at
https:/weather.gov/ilm/RaceTo100

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for SCZ017-023-
     024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for NCZ087-096-
     099-105>110.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...MCK
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...RGZ



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