990
FXUS62 KILM 262317
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
717 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The threat for heavy rain will continue into this evening, but a
change of air mass will arrive on Saturday as relatively cooler
and drier air moves in behind a cold front. After a dry Sunday
with low humidity next week will feature a gradual ramping up of
humidity and rain chances while temperatures hover near
average.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A line of showers and storms is currently bisecting the area with
embedded pockets of heavy rain. This activity will generally migrate
towards the coast into tonight as a cold front moves in from the
north. High rainfall amounts could lead to fog overnight, but
boundary layer winds appear stronger than yesterday which could
inhibit formation. Regardless, low clouds should form and stick
around through the morning until drier air starts to filter in
behind the front which should be south of the area by Saturday
afternoon. This will support dry conditions away from the coast
where there`s low chances for some showers in the afternoon,
primarily for NE SC. Despite the relatively cooler air that should
be coming in tonight, went a bit higher with lows because of the
cloud cover and moist soils. Lows in the low to mid 70s. Highs
Saturday will generally be in the mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A change of air mass arrives as relatively drier and cooler air
continues to feed in as high pressure builds down from the north
behind a cold front. Pcp water finally drops from over 2 inches
to well below normal for this time of year. As the high edges
down the coast into Sun, models show values as low as .7 over
the tip of Cape Fear. Latest soundings show a very dry column
overall, but lingering moisture from the previous days of rain
could lead to a couple of afternoon cu. But overall, not
expecting much if any clouds across the area on Sun. Dewpoint
temps will drop from the mid to upper 70s down to the 60s
leading to overnight lows Sat night in the 60s. Highs on Sun
will rebound to the upper 80s to near 90 with full sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
After a day of relief, the winds will begin to shift back around
as high pressure settles off the Carolina coast. The winds will
shift around to a more typical southerly flow around the
Bermuda High as the week progresses. The pcp water values
rebound back toward 2 inches by Mon aftn inland of the coast.
Chance of pcp will be introduced back into the forecast by late
Mon inland as subsidence behind mid to upper trough shifts
eastward and shortwave follows with a mid to upper trough
extending down into the Carolinas midweek. Overall, an increase
in overall moisture and better upper level support will lead to
an increase in mainly normal diurnal scattered shwr/tstm
activity into midweek. The mid to upper trough should shift
off the coast late Thurs into Fri with more limited coverage.

Temps will be back up to normal by Tues, near 90 for the high,
and above normal through the remainder of the week with lows in
the 70s and highs in the 90s

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Convection has pushed off the coast with northerly winds setting
up over the area. Patchy MVFR/IFR fog may develop during the
next few hours, before the north to northeast winds start to
increase. Once the winds pick up, fog will be replaced by low
stratus with IFR ceilings likely to prevail through the
remainder of the night and a little past daybreak. There is
potential for storm development along the NC coast which may
affect ILM for a few hours after midnight, confidence is a bit
low in this.

IFR will linger through mid morning Sat before ceilings
lift/break up and VFR sets up. An isolated afternoon shower or
thunderstorm is possible along the coast but coverage will be
very limited.

Extended Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday...Isolated instances of heavy rain are
possible over the waters near the coast with increasing coverage
expected late tonight as a front moves through early Saturday.
Visibilities may become 3 SM or lower in heavy rain. Improving
conditions are expected Saturday as drier air filters in behind
the front and high pressure builds from the north. This will
bring stronger NE flow 15- 20 kts with gusts remaining sub-SCA
thresholds. Seas will be 2-4 ft.

Saturday night through Wednesday...
A bit of a NE surge expected on Sat night into Sun as high
pressure builds down the coast behind cold front. Winds will
come back around to onshore by Sun night and a more typical
southerly direction Mon into midweek as Bermuda High begins to
dominate again.

Seas will increase in NE surge behind front Sat night into Sun,
up to 3 to 4 ft, but as winds diminish through Sun, seas will
subside back down to 2 to 3 ft by Sun night and remain 3 ft or
less for the most part into midweek. A minimal SE swell will mix
in.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 5 AM EDT Saturday for
     NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...III
MARINE...ILM