Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 211420
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1020 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure aloft will move across the area today before shifting
northeast on Monday. High pressure to the southwest will expand
over the area later today through Monday. The center of the high
will shift off the coast of Georgia Tuesday and linger through
Thursday. A weak front will move in from the north late Thursday
ahead of a Gulf Coast low that may bring unsettled weather to the
Carolinas late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 10 AM Sunday...Southern end of elongated 5h low will
rotate into and across the area today, accompanied by a narrow
slug of mid-level moisture. Although moisture does increase this
afternoon, mid-level subsidence remains in place. This will
likely keep any cumulus that starts to build on the shallow side
and limits potential for isolated afternoon showers. This mid-
level feature is weaker than the one yesterday and although
several locations reported light rain, there was only 1 report
of measurable rainfall. Would not be shocked to see some
isolated weak showers develop on radar, but not confident in
measurable rainfall. Favored areas would be across northern tier
of NC counties from mid to late afternoon. Given the limited
nature of any activity have held onto the inherited dry
forecast. Increasing clouds coupled with chilly start and deep
mixing will once again keep temperatures below climo this
afternoon with highs in most areas similar to yesterday, mid to
upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...After a fairly seasonable Monday night
Tuesday brings an afternoon of light winds yet deep mixing.
Temperatures will readily and quickly warm, attaining low 80s in
the afternoon away from the immediate cooling effect of the
ocean. Tuesday night the center of high pressure moves off the
coast and a piedmont trough develops. The southwesterly flow
that results should bring a milder night than Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...Warm temperatures will continue Wednesday
and Thursday as flat mid level ridging continues overhead and
high pressure remains offshore. Storms could approach Thursday
or Thursday night from the north as a backdoor front sags.
Better rain chances come Friday as both the southern and
northern branches of the jet stream send a trough our way.
High pressure may build in quickly enough on Saturday to dry
the area out and bring cooler weather.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 12Z...VFR conditions thru the 24 HR TAF Issuance period.
Cold air aloft will allow cu to form around mid morning, possibly
becoming a stratocu ceiling by afternoon. Clouds will dissipate this
evening, with little or no fog expected.

Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR conditions thruout the extended
as the center of sfc high pressure parks itself across the
Eastern Carolinas. Small potential for MVFR fog Tue and Wed
mornings.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 10 AM Sunday...Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled a
few hours early based on multiple buoy reports in the area
showing seas under 6 ft. Could still be some isolated 6 ft
across northern portions of AMZ250 out near 20nm for another
hour or so, but much closer to shore seas are solidly below SCA
thresholds. Westerly flow today, with an occasional shift to
southwest, will become more northwest this evening and tonight.
Gradient will keep speeds on the high end of the 10 to 15 kt
today, dropping closer to 10 kt overnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft
through the afternoon slowly fall to 3 to 4 ft overnight.

Winds fall to minimal values as high pressure builds in Monday
night. Seas won`t quite get as small as such a wind field would
imply as a little swell energy remains. A light southwesterly
flow gets established on Tuesday as the center of the high moves
offshore.

Southwesterly winds continue as high pressure remains offshore
through the period and a backdoor cold front approaches from the
north. Dominant wave periods may remain at around 8 seconds
indicating a very minor lingering swell component in with the
wind wave.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL



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