987
FXUS62 KILM 020749
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
349 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move farther off the Carolina coast this
week. Southerly winds bring warmer and more humid air
northward, resulting in spotty mainly afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms every day. A cold front could reach
the Carolinas by Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest surface analysis shows a broad surface high that is
centered just offshore of the Outer Banks, with the western
edge of it extending through Appalachia, the CSRA, the Coastal
Empire, and northeast Florida. Associated upper ridge is nearly
in tune with the surface feature, as the ridge axis comes down
from the Outer Banks into the Atlantic.

To the west, a shortwave trough at 500mb digs into the southern
portion of metro Atlanta, slowly pushing eastward. There is
minimal PVA just ahead of this shortwave, and has mostly
produced mid-high level clouds and virga. However, this forcing
proved to be just strong enough to produce light rain in
Thomson, GA a couple hours ago.

As the shortwave moves eastward today, it will continue to bring
along its associated (weak) forcing, as well as an increase in
moisture. I think the high-resolution guidance is a bit quick
with the moistening of the atmosphere, so I`ve left out
virtually any mention of rain chances prior to 18Z this
afternoon. An increase in cloud cover will be the main game
here. Offshore high pressure maintains a nice subsidence
inversion at around 700mb, which also helps to limit rain
chances. By later in the afternoon, that inversion starts to
slowly break down along and west of I-95. With the timing of the
shortwave`s arrival, I`ve included just a slight chance of a
brief shower or two in these areas for this afternoon and
tonight after 18Z. Not that this really means much...no real
rainfall accumulations to speak of.

Despite scattered to broken cirrus cloud over during the
overnight hours, we`ve radiated a bit better than I thought we
would. Temperatures just before sunrise this morning should
bottom out in the lower 60s inland, some mid 50s in the typical
cold spots. Highs today in the lower 80s. Lows tonight in the
mid 60s inland, near 70 at the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Previous forecast remains on track for Monday. Despite slight
mid-level ridging over the area, better deep-layer moisture than
today in conjunction with an inland thermal trough and sea
breeze will yield widely scattered showers and thunderstorms in
the aftn/early evening until the loss of daytime heating. High
temps in the mid 80s, with lows Monday night between 65-70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Pattern remains fairly stagnant for at least the first half of
this period, with sfc high pressure offshore and weak ridging
aloft, while transient shortwaves aid in isolated to scattered
diurnal convection. Highest rain chances (up to 50%) are
Thursday with more favorable instability over the area and a
frontal boundary approaching from the west. Temps will also
slowly rise through the week, into the low 90s by Thursday with
heat indices in the mid/upr 90s. Aforementioned front is progged
to cross the area Friday, with a general trend towards drier
weather into the weekend, and temps still slightly above normal
for early June - highs in the upr 80s/lwr 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR for the 06Z TAF period. There is a low potential for
afternoon convective showers Sunday after 18Z affecting KFLO and
KLBT, but confidence is much too low to include in the TAFs.

Extended Outlook...Isolated mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will be possible Monday through Wednesday,
becoming a little more widespread Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Southeasterly winds at 5-10kts become more
southerly by midday, gusting up to 15kts at times. Winds develop
more of a SSW tilt by late tonight. Seas hang in at 1-2ft, with
a southeasterly swell at 8-9 seconds, and an easterly swell at
6-7 seconds.

Monday through Thursday...No headlines anticipated this period.
Sfc high pressure remains locked in place offshore leading to
persistent southerly flow over the coastal waters, occasionally
up to ~15 kt. Seas 2-3 ft, up to 4 ft on Thursday, which
includes a steady 1-2 ft 7-8 second SE swell component.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Climatological Spring 2024 numbers are in and record-breaking
warmth occurred at Wilmington, NC where temperature records
date back to 1874.

Wilmington recorded its warmest spring on record with an average
March-May temperature of 66.4 degrees, breaking the record of
66.3 set back in the Spring of 2012. Although high temperatures
were warm, it was exceptional warmth for overnight lows that
really helped break the record.

In North Myrtle Beach this was the second warmest spring since
records began with an average spring temperature of 65.7
degrees. 2012 remains the warmest spring on record there.

Inland at Florence, SC and Lumberton, NC, both stations recorded
their sixth warmest spring on record with average temperatures
of 66.6 and 65.3 degrees, respectively.

Detailed spring climatological data is available in the seasonal
climate summaries (CLS) text products issued earlier this
afternoon.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...MAS/IGB
CLIMATE...TRA